Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Aug 9
For the week ended Aug 2, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for corn, soybeans and sorghum begins Sep 1. The
marketing year for soy meal and soy oil begins Oct 1.
For rice and cotton, “this year” is the 2018-2019 marketing
year, which began Aug 1, while “last year” is 2017-2018.
wk’s net change total
in commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 317.1 0.0 7513.8 10527.6 4171.8 0.0
hrw 50.0 0.0 1826.9 3747.4 925.5 0.0
srw 61.3 0.0 969.1 1092.0 551.3 0.0
hrs 116.5 0.0 2425.0 2779.3 1347.2 0.0
white 74.7 0.0 2114.5 2705.6 1197.1 0.0
durum 14.5 0.0 178.5 203.2 150.8 0.0
corn 554.5 657.7 59921.4 56410.7 7730.3 7813.7
soybeans 421.8 532.5 58555.0 60666.9 5170.8 10906.0
soymeal 109.6 19.9 12031.5 10148.1 1696.2 698.9
soyoil 10.9 0.0 1027.0 1080.3 145.5 39.1
upland cotto 1704.3-a 39.5 8245.1 5943.0 8202.0 1328.0
pima cotton 54.7-b 24.9 227.0 191.0 221.3 24.9
sorghum 0.9 0.0 5046.6 4831.4 119.3 0.0
barley 0.2 0.0 49.1 36.3 37.9 0.0
rice 252.6-c 0.0 339.4 435.1 310.9 0.0
-a: Includes new sales activity for Aug 1-Aug 2 which resulted
in a net increase of 176.6 thousand metric tons. Also includes
1527.7 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
-b: Includes new sales activity for Aug 1-Aug 2 which
resulted in a net increase of 17.7 thousand metric tons. Also includes
37.0 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
-c: Includes new sales activity for Aug 1-Aug 2 which
resulted in a net increase of 58.3 thousand metric tons. Also includes
194.3 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
General Comments: Cotton was lower again and futures remain locked in a sideways trend. It could be another quiet day before USDA will issue its production and supply and demand reports on Friday. Production could be a little lower than what USDA showed last month as conditions have stayed very bad in Texas. Conditions remain generally unfavorable in Texas, but are generally good in the Delta and Southeast. The weather is improving in India and China as monsoon rains are reported in India and as China has been dry. The monsoon has active in southern and central India and rains are now reported in northwest India and Pakistan. Trends remain generally up on the daily and weekly charts.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers move from west to east through Sunday, then mostly dry into next week, and the Southeast will get drier weather through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions, with light showers possible today. Temperatures will be variable. The USDA average price is now 83.60 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 20,298 bales, from 20,298 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8710, 8680, and 8610 December, with resistance of 8910, 8930, and 9000 December.
Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before USDA WASDE Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as ten analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2018-19 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on Aug. 10. Figures are in millions of bales.
2018-19:| Avg | Low | High | July
US Production | 18.39| 18.00| 19.00| 18.50
US Exports | 15.08| 14.70| 15.50| 15.00
US End Stocks | 3.86| 3.50| 4.00| 4.00
World Production | 119.73| 119.00| 120.50| 120.11
World Consumption | 126.79| 126.00| 127.50| 126.95
World End Stocks | 77.31| 75.00| 78.50| 77.84
| | | End
Estimates: |Production |Exports |Stocks |Production |Consumption |Stocks
Cottonexperts.com | 18.50| 15.00| 3.90| 119.00| 127.00| 76.50
Doane | 18.60| 15.50| 3.85| 120.00| 127.50| 77.00
Love Consulting | 18.25| 14.75| 4.00| 119.50| 127.00| 77.50
Price Futures Group| 18.30| 15.00| 3.90|n/a |n/a |n/a
Rabobank | 18.00| 15.20| 3.50| 119.70| 126.90| 75.00
Rose Consulting | 18.11| 15.00| 3.96| 119.00| 126.00| 78.30
Texas A&M; Robinson| 18.00| 14.70| 3.80| 120.11| 126.95| 77.84
Tullet Prebon | 18.20| 15.00| 3.70|n/a |n/a |n/a
Varner Bros. | 18.90| 15.40| 4.00| 120.50| 126.50| 77.80
Wedbush Securities | 19.00| 15.20| 4.00| 120.00| 126.50| 78.50
General Comments: FCOJ was near unchanged as the trade got ready for the big USDA reports tomorrow. USDA is expected to show better Oranges production potential for next year, although production should not return to levels seen before the Greening Disease became such a big problem. Production could be near 55 million boxes for the coming year. The production potential remains very good in Florida and as the demand side of the market remains an open question. The daily charts are now showing a very short-term trading range. Short term trends are mixed and the harvest is now about over. Traders are concentrating on the development of the new crop and the weak demand for the old crop. Overall growing conditions in Florida are good to very good, and there is no storm development in the Atlantic at this time. The state is getting frequent periods of showers. Florida producers are seeing good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Producers expect a good crop. A good crop now will likely mean increasing inventories of frozen concentrate.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day with best amounts and coverage today. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 163.00, 160.00, and 158.00 September, with resistance at 167.00, 170.00, and 172.00 September.
General Comments Futures were lower in both markets on speculative selling. There was no news to support any bullish ideas, so the funds and other speculators appeared to use the recent small rally to add to short positions Commercials remain scale down buyers. The price action and the market attitudes seem to be moderating now that the funds and other speculators have managed to build and increase on a record net short position. Ideas are that the crop is somewhat overestimated at 60 million bags and that transportation of Coffee to the ports remains hampered by high freight costs left in the wake of the truckers strike that ended a couple of months ago. Arabica trees in Brazil were starting to show stress due to the lack of rain over the last few months. It will be dry again through the weekend. The months leading up to the Winter were also dry, and that early dryness is affecting trees now. It is very possible that some production could be for next crop. Estimates for production this year range as high as 60 million bags. It has been dry in Vietnam, but.better rains are reported to be improving crop conditions now and production estimates are very high at about 30 million bas. Domestic prices were firmer last week very light farm selling and London price action.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.071 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 105.67 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be variable. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 106.00, 103.00, and 100.00 September, and resistance is at 110.00, 115.00 and 118.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1630, 1610, and 1580 September, and resistance is at 1680, 1710, and 1720 September.
General Comments: Futures were a little lower in consolidation trading. Short term trends are more sideways. Ideas of big world production are bearish and continue to be the dominant fundamental force in the market Dry conditions continue in Brazil, the EU, and Russia. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand and India. Brazil producers are also worried about Cane production even with the rapid early harvest, and the market is now starting to talk about less production there this year. The dry weather in much of Europe and in southern Russia near the Black Sea has hurt Sugar beets production potential in these areas. Recent rains in parts of Ukraine have improved production prospects there. Growing conditions are considered good in both India and Thailand due to the active monsoon.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be variable. ICE said that 480 delivery notices were posted today against July Sugar 16 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1070, 1040, and 1030 October, and resistance is at 1110, 1140, and 1160 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 319.00, 311.00, and 308.00 October, and resistance is at 330.00, 336.00, and 340.00 October.
General Comments futures were sideways to higher in a mostly consolidation trade. Ideas of big world production have kept futures on the defensive. Trends on both markets are down longer term and there does not seem to be much buying interest from industry for now. The outlook for strong production in the coming year has been enough to keep the prices weak. The main crop harvest is in its earliest stages in some parts of West Africa. Main crop production ideas for Ivory Coast are still near 2.0 million tons. The rest of West Africa looks to have good crops as well. There have been reports of good rains throughout the region and big yields are possible. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are slightly higher today at 4.558 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2090, 2040, and 1990 September, with resistance at 2200, 2240, and 2290 September. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1540, 1510, and 1480 September, with resistance at 1600, 1650, and 1670 September.
DJ Sale of 2017-18 Midcrop Cocoa Ends in Nigeria – Officials, Traders
IBADAN, Nigeria–The sale of the 2017-18 midcrop cocoa has ended in Nigeria with farmers paying attention to the first phase of the new season’s main crop, industry officials and traders said Wednesday.
“Farmers are now spraying the 2018-19 main cocoa against the black pod or swollen shoot diseases, to safeguard the crop that will be harvest from the end of August,” said Jimi Adewole, a trader in Ibadan, capital of Oyo state.
The Cocoa Association of Nigeria said cocoa production for the 2018-19 season is expected at 310,000 metric tons.
Robo Adhuze, a CAN official said this would constitute a rise from the 300,000 tons for the current season, and is partly attributed to the favorable weather in the country’s two cocoa-producing regions.
Harvesting of the few cocoa pods that are usually available before the start of the main cocoa is underway and this would provide income for farmers before the marketing of the main crop begins, said Mr. Adewole.
Vincent Ohwojakpor, a CAN official said there’s been no rainfall in the past five days in Edo state, the largest cocoa producer in the country’s midwest cocoa region, noting that this won’t hurt the main cocoa because of ample moisture that is already in the soil.
“There has been a mixture of rainfall and sunshine before the August break, which is a “perfect weather” for cocoa development, he said.