Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
People’s Daily,ChinaVerified account @PDChina 4m4 minutes ago
China will slap 25 pct tariffs on $16 billion worth of US imports starting Aug 23, said the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council on Wed, after the US announcement of imposing a similar tariff on $16 billion worth of Chinese goods from the same day.
General Comments: Cotton was lower after trading higher early in the day. Futures remain locked in a sideways trend. It could be a quiet week until Friday when USDA will issue its production and supply and demand reports. Production could be a little lower than what USDA showed last month as conditions have stayed very bad in Texas. USDA showed average progress and some deterioration in condition in its weekly crop updates released on Monday afternoon. Conditions remain generally unfavorable in Texas, but are generally good in the Delta and Southeast. The weather is improving in India and China as monsoon rains are reported in India and as China has been dry. The monsoon has active in southern and central India and rains are now reported in northwest India and Pakistan. Trends remain generally up on the daily and weekly charts.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see showers move from west to east through Sunday, then mostly dry into next week, and the Southeast will get drier weather through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions, with light showers possible today. Temperatures will be variable. The USDA average price is now 84.43 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 20,298 bales, from 20,308 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 9000, 9040, and 9380 December. Support is at 8710, 8680, and 8610 December, with resistance of 8910, 8930, and 9000 December.
Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before USDA WASDE Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as ten analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2018-19 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on Aug. 10. Figures are in millions of bales.
2018-19:| Avg | Low | High | July
US Production | 18.39| 18.00| 19.00| 18.50
US Exports | 15.08| 14.70| 15.50| 15.00
US End Stocks | 3.86| 3.50| 4.00| 4.00
World Production | 119.73| 119.00| 120.50| 120.11
World Consumption | 126.79| 126.00| 127.50| 126.95
World End Stocks | 77.31| 75.00| 78.50| 77.84
| | | End
Estimates: |Production |Exports |Stocks |Production |Consumption |Stocks
Cottonexperts.com | 18.50| 15.00| 3.90| 119.00| 127.00| 76.50
Doane | 18.60| 15.50| 3.85| 120.00| 127.50| 77.00
Love Consulting | 18.25| 14.75| 4.00| 119.50| 127.00| 77.50
Price Futures Group| 18.30| 15.00| 3.90|n/a |n/a |n/a
Rabobank | 18.00| 15.20| 3.50| 119.70| 126.90| 75.00
Rose Consulting | 18.11| 15.00| 3.96| 119.00| 126.00| 78.30
Texas A&M; Robinson| 18.00| 14.70| 3.80| 120.11| 126.95| 77.84
Tullet Prebon | 18.20| 15.00| 3.70|n/a |n/a |n/a
Varner Bros. | 18.90| 15.40| 4.00| 120.50| 126.50| 77.80
Wedbush Securities | 19.00| 15.20| 4.00| 120.00| 126.50| 78.50
General Comments: FCOJ was lower on follow through selling. The production potential remains very good in Florida and as the demand side of the market remains an open question. The daily charts are now showing a very short-term trading range. Short term trends are mixed and the harvest is now about over. Traders are concentrating on the development of the new crop and the weak demand for the old crop. Overall growing conditions in Florida are good to very good, and there is no storm development in the Atlantic at this time. Th estate is getting frequent periods of showers. Florida producers are seeing good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used when needed, and producers expect a good crop. A good crop now will likely mean increasing inventories of frozen concentrate. Weaker demand has caused FCOJ inventories in Florida to increase on a year to year basis.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day with best amounts and coverage today and tomorrow. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 165.00, 163.00, and 160.00 September, with resistance at 170.00, 172.00, and 175.00 September.
General Comments Futures were mixed and closed a little higher in New York and a little lower in London. The price action and the market attitudes seem to be moderating now that the funds and other speculators have managed to build and increase on a record net short position. Ideas are that the crop is somewhat overestimated at 60 million bags and that transportation of Coffee to the ports remains hampered by high freight costs left in the wake of the truckers strike that ended a couple of months ago. Ideas of strong production in Brazil and Vietnam are keeping futures under selling pressure. Arabica trees in Brazil were starting to show stress due to the lack of rain over the last few months. It will be dry again for the rest of the week. The months leading up to the Winter were also dry, and that early dryness is affecting trees now. It is very possible that some production could be for next crop. Estimates for production this year range as high as 60 million bags. Central American is also dry in some areas and production losses are increasingly expected. London remains relatively strong as Vietnamese production is not moving. There is not much Robusta on offer in the world markets right now even though supplies in storage in Europe are very high. It has been dry in Vietnam, but.better rains are reported to be improving crop conditions now and production estimates are very high at about 30 million bas. Domestic prices were firmer last week very light farm selling and London price action.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.062 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 106.65 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be variable. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 106.00, 103.00, and 100.00 September, and resistance is at 110.00, 115.00 and 118.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1610 September, and resistance is at 1680, 1710, and 1720 September.
General Comments: Futures were mixed, with both markets seeing price weakness in the front months, but stronger prices in deferred months. News that some analysts were cutting production estimates for Brazil Sugarcane due to dry weather helped support values. The reversal trade from last Thursday implies that futures can move higher in both markets over time. Short term trends are more sideways. Ideas of big world production are bearish Dry conditions continue in Brazil, the EU, and Russia. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand and India. Brazil producers are also worried about Cane production even with the rapid early harvest, and the market is now starting to talk about less production there this year. The dry weather in much of Europe and in southern Russia near the Black Sea has hurt Sugar beets production potential in these areas. Recent rains in parts of Ukraine have improved production prospects there. Growing conditions are considered good in both India and Thailand due to the active monsoon.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1070, 1040, and 1030 October, and resistance is at 1110, 1140, and 1160 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 319.00, 311.00, and 308.00 October, and resistance is at 330.00, 336.00, and 340.00 October.
DJ Sugar Group Paints Bearish Picture — Market Talk
12:44 ET – In its monthly update, the International Sugar Organization says a record sugar surplus expected this year, followed by a surplus next year means excessive stocks of sugar will take time to liquidate. Green Pool projects a 19M ton surplus this year, the largest ever, INTL FCStone says this years surplus has already offsets two years of deficits. Currently, all eyes are on India, the second largest grower, which has produced 6.5M tons more sugar than it uses and owes sugarcane farmers $2.4B following a raft of measures to boost sugar exports. Raw sugar futures fall 0.8% to 10.89 cents a pound. (firstname.lastname@example.org)
General Comments futures lower in both markets yesterday.. The selling over the last couple of weeks has been dramatic in both markets, and the need for a corrective rally was becoming apparent. Prices got too cheap for sellers of all kinds. Ideas of big world production have kept futures on the defensive. Trends on both markets are down and there does not seem to be much buying interest from industry for now. The outlook for strong production in the coming year has been enough to keep the prices weak. The main crop harvest is in its earliest stages in some parts of West Africa. Main crop production ideas for Ivory Coast are still near 2.0 million tons even with the big rains. Ideas that current weather conditions are good for the next crops in West Africa continue. There have been reports of good rains throughout the region and big yields are possible. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.556 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2040, 1990, and 1960 September, with resistance at 2120, 2200, and 2240 September. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1530, 1510, and 1480 September, with resistance at 1600, 1650, and 1670 September.
DJ Cameroon’s Cocoa Production Hit by Unrest -NCCB
By Emmanuel Tumanjong
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
NGOMEDZAP, Cameroon–Cameroon’s leading cocoa-growing South-West region has lost its position as the West African nation’s leading cocoa beans producer, following two years of civil unrest that has forced thousands of farmers and traders out of the area, a top executive of the National Cocoa and Coffee Board, or NCCB, said Tuesday.
This signals that the third-largest African nation’s output of the key chocolate ingredient may collapse further in the years ahead, as the fighting continues.
According to the NCCB, the South-West province, accounted for only 31.5% of national cocoa beans production in the just-ended 2017-2018 crop season, losing about 20% of its harvests this season. The region has accounted for at least 50% of the country’s annual crop output over the last 40 years.
“During this past season, the Center Region produced 50.36% of the country’s annual cocoa beans,” the NCCB managing-director Michael Ndoping told Dow Jones Newswires.
Security reports have said that thousands of farmers have fled the South-West region, abandoning their farms and homes amid armed fighting that has claimed the lives of about 200 government troops and nearly 1,000 civilians.
The cocoa season in Cameroon officially runs from August of each year to July the following year.