About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-May 22
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 64.563 million pounds, in April, 9.1% above the previous
month, and 92.5% above April 2017, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Tuesday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Apr 30 Mar 31 Apr 30 Mar 31 warehouse
2018 2018 2017 2017 stocks/Apr
pork bellies 64,563 59,202 33,536 20,570
orange juice 632,640 564,035 542,175 517,057
french fries 936,725 964,870 949,450 950,310
other potatoes 255,561 260,910 270,257 262,027
chicken rstr (whole) 14,152 15,641 21,761 16,783
ham 112,275 96,337 112,815 90,193
ttl pork 641,407 611,003 590,324 545,463 582,124
ttl beef 471,545 463,971 458,418 464,001 463,836
ttl red meat 1/ 1,166,969 1,124,369 1,092,728 1,051,360 1,099,832
ttl chicken 866,241 871,312 795,894 764,673
ttl turkey 493,259 462,899 471,484 428,752
ttl poultry 1,363,120 1,337,834 1,271,250 1,198,750 1,280,995

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were higher. The market is still worried about dry weather in places like Kazakhstan and Australia, and the EU cut its own yield estimate for the new crop yesterday sue to stressful weather. India and Pakistan have been very hot, but the Wheat might not be affected yet. Wheat is also a market looking for some consumptive demand, but the weekly export sales reports remain poor. Black Sea prices remain the cheapest, but important growing areas of Ukraine and southern Russia have been dry and will be dry again now that the rains have come and gone. Australia is also dry, and the Indian Subcontinent has been very hot and dry. Warmer and drier weather is expected for the Midwest for the rest of the week to help speed crop development. Warmer weather should also move out of the northern Great Plains and Canadian Prairies to allow for some fieldwork to start in Spring Wheat areas.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather or light precipitation. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 543 July. Support is at 510, 503, and 499 July, with resistance at 525, 530, and 532 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 548 July. Support is at 527, 523, and 519 July, with resistance at 546, 548, and 552 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 650 July. Support is at 620, 617, and 614 July, and resistance is at 637, 640, and 643 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower for much of the sesión but recovered late in the day to close higher. The move appeared to be chart based as futures have fallen sharply in the last couple of weeks with little or no corrective trading. US crop copnditions remain mostly good. The crop is almost completely planted now and is in mostly good condition. Emergence is happening quickly with warmer temperatures, and crops in the south are in flood or going into flood. There is some concern about reduced yields as some áreas have planted late or into less than perfect conditions, but most producers seem happy with the way the crops are developing now.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1205 and 1161 July. Support is at 1218, 1214, and 1210 July, with resistance at 1236, 1243, and 1249 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 23
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.63 11.28 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.23 11.66 0.00
Brokens 10.63 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher on demand ideas and on renewed talk of dry weather in Brazil production areas. Some selling was note don the rally after Trump said there were problems with the negotiations with China. He made no mention of anything to do with NAFTA, and NAFTA is more important to Corn demand. Domestic demand remains strong, and demand for etanol is expected to remain strong for a while as Crude Oil and petroleum products remain in price uptrends. The weather problems with the Winter Corn crop in Brazil continue with no real rains in sight for major growing areas. There are chances for the crop to ge smaller if rains do not appear soon. Some think that production could drop another 10 million tons from the recent CONAB and USDA estimates. No big rains are currently in the forecast, and there are no rains in the foreast after this week. There is also talk now of potential for crop losses in Ukraine Corn áreas and parts of Russian grain áreas from dry weather.
Overnight News: Saudi Arabia bought 140,000 tons of optional origin Corn overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 401, 399, and 397 July, and resistance is at 407, 409, and 412 July. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 251 July. Support is at 244, 243, and 240 July, and resistance is at 252, 256, and 263 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher in reaction to news of a truce betwen the US and China in their potential trade war. Hwever, Trmp said that he was not pleased with the negotiations so far, so selling entered the pit. Futures moved close to the lows of the day before recovering to close in the middle of the trading range for the day. The US and China has entered into more talks last week to try to resolve the trade dispute, but important differences remain to be resolved. Enough progress was made by Monday for the US to state that no tarrifs are coming at this time, and China has also pulled back by allowing free imports of US agricultural products. The tariff threats with China remain alive, as Trump noted yesterday, and wire reports indicate that they could be applied again down the road if the US becomes unhappy with the pace of change. The trade also hopes for a peaceful solution to the NAFTA talks to keep Mexican and Canadian demand alive. China still prefers Brazilian Soybeans due to the tariff threats and as the new crop Brazil harvest is now available, and the US stands to lose demand in coming weeks from that buyer and maybe others as Brazil expands market share. Farmers in much of the Midwest are planting Soybeans.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1037 and 1082 July. Support is at 1020, 1011, and 1008 July, and resistance is at 1036, 1040, and 1047 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 374.00, 370.00, and 367.00 July, and resistance is at 384.00, 391.00, and 392.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3230 and 3320 July. Support is at 3120, 3100, and 3050 July, with resistance at 3180, 3210, and 3220 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was slightly higher. Most of the rally was in sympathy with the price action in Chicago. It is dry in parts of the Prairies, and there is concern that Canola could be affected if some rains do not return soon. Forecasts call for generally dry conditions to continue for now. Palm Oil was lower on long liquidation from speculators. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Exports so far this month ar down from last month.. Production is seasonally lower to help ending stocks ideas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 528.00, 525.00, and 523.00 July, with resistance at 536.00, 537.00, and 539.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2430, 2400, and 2390 August, with resistance at 2480, 2500, and 2520 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Chances for more precipitation each day this weekend Temnperatures mostly near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 52 July 155 July 50 July 49 July 26-Jul
June 51 July 55 July 46 July
July 50 September 58 July 46 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
June 1-Jul 100 September July
July 72 July 1-Jul 90 September August
August 99 August 1-Aug 89 September September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 22
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 520.40 dn 0.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 544.70 up 0.30
2 Can 531.70 up 0.30
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 575.70 up 0.30
2 Can 562.70 up 0.30
>TE
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 645.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul 650.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 650.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 650.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jun 647.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jul 652.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 652.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 652.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 627.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 507.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2,470 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 222 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 3.9785)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 215,580 lots, or 7.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 3,640 3,640 3,640 0 0 286
Sep-18 3,690 3,701 3,640 3,653 3,699 3,666 -33 203,814 208,838
Nov-18 – – – 3,724 3,724 3,724 0 0 8
Jan-19 3,778 3,781 3,729 3,735 3,778 3,753 -25 10,822 18,146
Mar-19 – – – 3,774 3,774 3,774 0 0 2
May-19 3,820 3,823 3,774 3,783 3,818 3,794 -24 880 2,150
Jul-19 3,766 3,812 3,766 3,812 3,700 3,776 76 14 8
Sep-19 3,832 3,832 3,811 3,813 3,853 3,820 -33 50 336
Nov-19 – – – 3,816 3,848 3,816 -32 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 439,788 lots, or 7.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 1,766 1,774 1,757 1,763 1,770 1,765 -5 33,500 175,278
Sep-18 1,769 1,776 1,760 1,764 1,773 1,766 -7 297,758 770,668
Nov-18 1,802 1,808 1,794 1,797 1,809 1,800 -9 268 1,610
Jan-19 1,827 1,834 1,818 1,821 1,834 1,824 -10 98,618 327,600
Mar-19 1,868 1,871 1,858 1,861 1,875 1,863 -12 1,038 3,926
May-19 1,902 1,909 1,893 1,900 1,905 1,900 -5 8,606 18,180
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,352,744 lots, or 70.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 2,910 2,933 2,898 2,920 2,893 2,915 22 81,876 155,448
Aug-18 2,986 2,992 2,959 2,992 2,954 2,973 19 28 632
Sep-18 2,970 3,001 2,957 2,980 2,958 2,981 23 1,585,342 2,759,730
Nov-18 3,010 3,033 2,992 3,011 2,990 3,010 20 482 5,698
Dec-18 3,056 3,056 3,011 3,019 3,002 3,026 24 8 458
Jan-19 3,032 3,059 3,013 3,035 3,012 3,038 26 645,874 1,568,340
Mar-19 2,950 2,965 2,935 2,943 2,931 2,948 17 1,240 5,476
May-19 2,848 2,864 2,833 2,848 2,838 2,849 11 37,894 129,048
Palm Oil
Turnover: 343,200 lots, or 17.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-18 – – – 5,206 5,206 5,206 0 0 0
Jul-18 – – – 5,132 5,132 5,132 0 0 2
Aug-18 – – – 5,262 5,262 5,262 0 0 12
Sep-18 5,190 5,194 5,132 5,144 5,160 5,158 -2 288,120 543,428
Oct-18 – – – 5,196 5,196 5,196 0 0 6
Nov-18 – – – 5,238 5,238 5,238 0 0 12
Dec-18 – – – 5,146 5,146 5,146 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,224 5,236 5,182 5,194 5,200 5,204 4 54,646 152,778
Feb-19 – – – 5,192 5,192 5,192 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 5,156 5,156 5,156 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,278 5,278 5,278 0 0 18
May-19 5,318 5,320 5,276 5,284 5,286 5,294 8 434 752
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 499,532 lots, or 29.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,624 5,624 5,624 0 0 126
Aug-18 – – – 5,810 5,810 5,810 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,844 5,848 5,782 5,798 5,798 5,808 10 400,406 953,812
Nov-18 – – – 5,868 5,868 5,868 0 0 22
Dec-18 – – – 5,908 5,908 5,908 0 0 22
Jan-19 5,996 5,998 5,930 5,944 5,946 5,954 8 96,264 270,174
Mar-19 – – – 6,030 6,030 6,030 0 0 62
May-19 6,048 6,054 6,010 6,012 6,018 6,026 8 2,862 8,366
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322