Using an oscillator for trend indication — The direction of an oscillator’s movement generally provides an indication of the direction of the underlying market trend. Therefore, a reversal in the direction of an oscillator suggests a reversal in the underlying market trend. For example, an oscillator which is rising is generally regarded as bullish, as [...]
Continue Reading →The odds of long-term success favor a larger account. Large accounts can withstand a run of bad trades that would ruin a smaller trader’s account. Imagine a series of coin tosses. In the long-run, half of the time the coin will lands on heads and half of the time the coin will land on tails. [...]
Continue Reading →The market may sometimes create a series of highs that can also be connected with a straight line parallel to the trend line. The result is a channel within which prices oscillate between the top and bottom lines. The top line of the channel becomes a series of resistance levels and the trend line at [...]
Continue Reading →The first criteria for placing stops is deciding how much to risk on the trade. If a trader with a $20,000 account is willing to risk 3% ($600) on the 600 shares of Ameritrade he just bought at 15, he would simply place his stop at 14 ($15 – $14 = $1 multiplied by 600 [...]
Continue Reading →The change in open interest is a measure of whether money is flowing into or out of the market. When the price is FALLING and open interest is increasing, this indicates that the price decrease is due to selling being done to create new short positions. This is considered bearish because it is an indication [...]
Continue Reading →The averages discount everything. This means that every possible thing that can affect prices is reflected in the market averages. Even acts of God are quickly appraised and their effects accounted for in the price. Of course secret insider information would not be known and thus could not affect the price until it did become [...]
Continue Reading →Using an oscillator as an overbought/oversold indicator — An oscillator can also be used to identify overbought and oversold conditions by watching its absolute value. A very high (positive) oscillator value indicates that the shorter-term moving average is much higher than the longer-term average and that the current price may therefore be “too high” and [...]
Continue Reading →Commonly, a risk to reward ratio of 3 to 1 is suggested, i.e. risk $1 to make $3. The problem with this maxim is that it is hard to determine realistically what the objective is although sometimes it is possible to determine roughly from break-out patterns. If the objective is reached, the prudent thing may [...]
Continue Reading →Using the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as an overbought/oversold indicator — As an OB/OS indicator, a 9-day RSI value approaching 80 means that the market is overbought, i.e., the price is very high and almost everyone interested in this contract has already taken a position so that there are very few traders left to maintain [...]
Continue Reading →If resources are still to be committed to stock or commodity futures trading, it helps to have realistic expectations. Financial markets don’t exist to make the individual trader wealthy. A private trader will be competing against much more experienced and better informed traders with far deeper pockets in what is basically a zero sum game. [...]
Continue Reading →Say a trader’s account has been open for some time now and after a series of trades his equity has fallen by 20% from what he started with. Now, just to get back to the breakeven level he will have to earn a 25% return. Percentage gains and losses are not equal. A 20% gain [...]
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