Marc Nemenoff
(312) 264-4310
Financials: Mar. Bonds are currently 23 higher at 144’09 and the 10 Yr. Note 10 higher at 131’09. As I have noted over the last couple of months, it is hard for me to be long Bonds with yield under 3.0% (currently about 2.95%) and the 10 Yr. Note under 2.0% (currently about 1.91%) despite positive technicals which point to higher prices and a possible test of the 146’00 level in Mar. Bonds. If the market should rally and test said level, I will once again be interested in putting on the long 10 Yr. Note/ short Bond spread. In the mean time I am sitting woth the long 5 Yr. Note/short 10 Yr. Note spread from the 7’15 level (currently 7’24) premium the 10 Yr.
Grains: Yesterday Mar. Beans closed 20 cents lower at 1182’4, Corn 40’0 lower at 611’4 and Wheat 36’0 lower at 605’0. Over night these markets are about 2’0 lower. No question the sentiment has turned a bit negative since yesterday morning’s report which showed larger than expected ending stocks indicated a bit of softness in export demand. That being said I think it is time to once again looking ot the long side of the market on breaks to the 6’00 level in the Mar. Corn. Users, such as livestock producers should be looking to cover near term needs on this break in the Corn.
Cattle: Yesterday Feb. LC closed slightly lower at 121.25 and deferred contracts were slightly weaker most of the session reflected weaker feed grain prices and higher Feeder Cattle costs. Mar. Feeder Cattle closed 92 higher at 151.80. I am still recommending the short side of these markets with a 300 point protective buy stop. Producers should be looking for hedging opportunities.
Silver: Mar. Silver is currently 36 cents lower at 29.75 and Feb. Gold 10.00 lower at 1636.00. My only recommendation at this time: If you are a long term bull consider out of the money calls or call spreads because of the limited risk.
S&P’s: Mar. S&P’s are currently 8.00 lower at 1284.00. If you remain short from the 1289.00 level, lower your protective buy stop from 1303.00 to your break even level or take profits.
Currencies: As of this writing the Mar. Euro is currently 112 lower at 1.2720, the Swiss 86 lower at 1.0522, the Yen 18 lower at 1.3019 and the Pound 40 lower at 1.5290. Daytrade and short term traders may want to be buyers in the Euro on this break for a counter trend rally. That being said, the long term trend remains down , making me a bit more comfortable holding the 1.2400 puts in both the Euro and the Yen.
I continue to remain long the mini Mar. Natural Gas, my position being at a 34 cent loss ($850). I am admittedly guilty of buying price. Long term support is the 2.45 level.
Regards,
Marc
Questions? Ask Marc Nemenoff today at 312-264-4310
