Jack Scoville
(312) 264-4322
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher in response to stronger than expected export sales as seen in the weekly USDA reports. Export demand could be light to start the week. Ideas remain that any Chinese demand will wait until after the Chinese New Year celebrations that run this week. The weather has been dry in some growing areas of Texas as well as in southern South America, although the latter areas are now seeing at least some precipitation. Domestic demand is said to be weak as mills work off previously bought supplies. The situation in Europe still has traders nervous. Chart trends are turning up, but traders expect lower prices soon as the commercial buying and speculative short covering runs its course.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will see storms today and tomorrow, then drier weather the rest of the week. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 91.21 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.042 million bales, from 0.041 million yesterday. China imported 790,395 tons of Cotton in December, up 71.3% from last year. It imported 3.4 million tons of Cotton in 2011, up 18.6% from 2010.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 100.60 and 104.30 March. Support is at 97.50, 96.00, and 95.00 March, with resistance of 101.00, 103.00, and 105.00 March.
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. Code-033661
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 01/17/12 |
————————————————————–| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
————————–|—————–|—————–|—————–
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
——————————————————————————–
(CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS) OPEN INTEREST: 218,314
COMMITMENTS
48,303 18,767 53,768 100,305 132,376 202,377 204,911 15,937 13,403
CHANGES FROM 01/10/12 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 12,585)
970 1,301 2,610 8,407 10,200 11,987 14,112 597 -1,527
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
22.1 8.6 24.6 45.9 60.6 92.7 93.9 7.3 6.1
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 245)
90 73 87 57 72 192 191
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed limit up again as traders worry more about lost supplies available to the market due to the fungicide found in imported FCOJ from Brazil. Support keeps coming from reports that some imported Brazilian juice had traces of a fungicide that has not been approved by USDA or FDA. Reports indicate that testing of the imported juices could take into this Summer. There are wire reports that the imports from all origins have been stopped until they can be tested. The fungicide is legal to use in Europe, but not here. The government announced that it had tested some origins through last week and those were found to be safe, but it seems like a slow process. Weather in Florida remains mostly good. This week should see mostly dry weather, and moderate temperatures. Harvest is continuing to expand. Trends are mixed. Brazil is seeing moderate temperatures and scattered showers.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 213.00 and 233.00 March. Support is at 198.00, 193.00, and 192.00 March, with resistance at 211.00, 214.00, and 217.00 March.
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. Code-040701
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 01/17/12 |
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NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
————————–|—————–|—————–|—————–
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
——————————————————————————–
(CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) OPEN INTEREST: 36,167
COMMITMENTS
12,370 1,462 6,423 13,841 26,884 32,633 34,769 3,534 1,398
CHANGES FROM 01/10/12 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -4,370)
-2,324 -399 -244 -1,452 -3,377 -4,020 -4,020 -350 -350
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
34.2 4.0 17.8 38.3 74.3 90.2 96.1 9.8 3.9
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 97)
45 19 21 28 25 88 50
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and Sao Paulo, but higher in London. Commercial buying was noted in London. Vietnam producers have withdrawn from the market in preparation for the Tet celebrations this week and because of low prices. Other producers also seem unwilling to sell at such relatively cheap prices, but have been delivering against previous contracts. Brazil coffee areas appear to be in good condition under generally good weather. Loss reports from Central America are still around, and lower production is reported from Colombia as well after too much rain. Some showers are forecast for Brazil this week that will be beneficial for crops there, although parts of Sao Paulo could get too much rain. Arabica futures still have to deal with a tight supply situation for the short term, and less than expected Washed Arabica Coffee production over the coming year. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. Charts now show that trends have turned mixed.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.517 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 192.07 ct/lb. Brazil should get showers and storms, especially later in the week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should also get showers, but Central America and Mexico should be mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal in all areas. European stocks were 11.24 million bags at the end of November, down 697,583 bags from October.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 224.00, 223.00, and 220.00 March, and resistance is at 230.00, 234.00, and 238.50 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2040 March. Support is at 1880, 1820, and 1770 March, and resistance is at 1940, 1980, and 2030 March. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 302.00, 296.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 319.00, 321.00, and 323.00 March.
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. Code-083731
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 01/17/12 |
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NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
————————–|—————–|—————–|—————–
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
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(CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS) OPEN INTEREST: 157,559
COMMITMENTS
27,951 19,390 46,877 75,479 82,676 150,307 148,942 7,252 8,617
CHANGES FROM 01/10/12 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 605)
1,423 -3,750 -405 -1,511 4,177 -493 22 1,098 583
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
17.7 12.3 29.8 47.9 52.5 95.4 94.5 4.6 5.5
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 318)
80 89 112 124 118 269 265
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher and held a breakout area one more day. It was a positive finish to the week and one that should have the bulls more excited. The market seems to be finding a bottom for now as offers in the cash market have held firm. Demand is starting to increase as buyers prepare for Spring festivals, but mostly it seems that offers are harder to find after prices became unattractive to exporters. India returned to its traditional position as a major exporter after being a big importer the previous year, and is now talking about lifting export controls due to big stocks now in the country. Russia and Europe had good crops as well. Supply side fundamentals for Sugar remain weak with big production reported in the northern hemisphere, but the market still acts like most of the bad news is part of the price already. There is talk of less production in Brazil again later next year due to weather and lower prices, and eastern Europe and Russia have entered a dry period again that could affect production potential for next year.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in northern Brazil, but the south will stay dry. Temperatures should be near normal. China imported 494,549 tons of Sugar in December, up 295% from last year. It imported 2.919 million tons in 2011, up 65% from 2010.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2490 and 2640 March. Support is at 2420, 2400, and 2390 March, and resistance is at 2520, 2550, and 2620 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 675.00 March. Support is at 637.00, 628.00, and 623.00 March, and resistance is at 652.00, 662.00, and 668.00 March.
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. Code-080732
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 01/17/12 |
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NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
————————–|—————–|—————–|—————–
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
——————————————————————————–
(CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS) OPEN INTEREST: 794,833
COMMITMENTS
130,002 61,299 184,055 409,288 467,528 723,345 712,883 71,488 81,950
CHANGES FROM 01/10/12 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 23,035)
5,857 -1,301 2,359 9,963 23,203 18,178 24,262 4,857 -1,227
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
16.4 7.7 23.2 51.5 58.8 91.0 89.7 9.0 10.3
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 235)
72 65 92 86 91 207 201
COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation. Exports from West Africa have begun to drop significantly and the market found a bid on ideas that the main season harvest might be ending early and that the weather there is turning hot and dry. Charts show that the market might have finally bottomed. Prices have weakened in recent months on supply ideas, especially from western Africa where arrivals and export declarations had been running ahead of last year. Ideas of availability of Cocoa from western Africa is still the dominant force in the market, but traders are also worried about the economic situation in Europe, the top destination for a lot of the Cocoa produced in the world.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.044 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2500 and 2750 March. Support is at 2250, 2190, and 2175 March, with resistance at 2520, 2550, and 2620 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1470, 1450, and 1420 March, with resistance at 1540, 1580, and 1620 March.
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. Code-073732
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 01/17/12 |
————————————————————–| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
————————–|—————–|—————–|—————–
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
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(CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS) OPEN INTEREST: 193,307
COMMITMENTS
29,595 40,839 35,321 118,361 106,686 183,277 182,846 10,030 10,461
CHANGES FROM 01/10/12 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -2,928)
-622 -2,337 -1,094 592 -178 -1,124 -3,609 -1,804 680
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
15.3 21.1 18.3 61.2 55.2 94.8 94.6 5.2 5.4
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 174)
45 60 47 55 49 126 134
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
