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Morning Grains 1/23/12

By Jack Scoville On January 23, 2012 - 9:28 AM · 1 Comment · In Market Analysis

01/20 09:41p CST DJ Table Of China December Oilseed, Vegoil, Grain Imports
Table Of Imports By Grain, Oil Type And Origin
(All figures in metric tons)
Dec Change Jan-Dec Change
in Tons on Year in Tons on Year
Wheat
Total 217,493 +4355.82% 1,248,822 +2.47%
Australia 92,823 +6002.41% 637,074 -16.18%
USA 65,279 – 434,878 +235.75%
Canada 56,750 – 172,250 -39.26%
Kazakhstan 2,640 -21.43% 4,620 -89.85%
Barley
Total 123,633 +79.25% 1,775,520 -24.99%
Canada 48,928 – 103,646 -78.61%
Argentina 41,276 – 175,704 -
Australia 26,136 +233.44% 1,254,895 -7.85%
France 7,294 -88.07% 239,274 -52.36%
Denmark – - 2,002 -77.25%
Corn
Total 569,763 +3677.02% 1,752,743 +11.47%
USA 529,894 +31122.63% 1,685,486 +12.23%
Laos 26,406 +181.45% 35,168 -16.26%
Myanmar 13,438 +240.82% 28,403 +46.45%
Peru 25 – 100 -47.62%
South Korea – - 319 +1602.89%
China – - 60 -
Taiwan – - 20 +0.08%
Germany 0 -99.13% 128 -5.25%
France 0 – 4 +26.39%
Argentina – - 26 +341.54%
Chile – -100% 2 -67.24%
Japan – - 1 -24.79%
India – -100% 3,026 +3591.62%
Rice
Total 60,308 -38.21% 578,383 +57.95%
Thailand 40,681 -55.79% 325,620 +8.88%
Vietnam 10,050 +265.45% 233,775 +316.79%
Pakistan 5,997 +8115.07% 8,668 +1933.83%
Laos 3,418 +169.67% 7,462 +9.09%
Myanmar 162 -85.29% 1,352 -44.6%
South Korea – -100% 1,423 +105.93%
Taiwan – - 10 -74.61%
Uruguay – - 73 -
Soybean
Total 5,421,595 -0.11% 52,639,547 -3.94%
USA 3,597,154 -26.42% 22,351,047 -5.28%
Argentina 861,585 +89.44% 7,841,701 -29.93%
Brazil 834,492 +1336.99% 20,624,913 +10.96%
Canada 84,419 +232.02% 387,971 +422.4%
Uruguay 43,443 – 1,430,236 +6.13%
Russia 503 -25.83% 3,678 +442.57%
Rapeseed
Total 200,439 +46.79% 1,262,265 -21.1%
Canada 198,327 +45.24% 1,250,274 -21.82%
Mongolia 2,112 – 11,991 +2032.8%
Rapeseed Oil
Total 71,020 -48.97% 550,904 -44.08%
Canada 56,359 -56.49% 525,671 -42.42%
USA 14,559 +94071.16% 14,648 +625.1%
Australia 102 +137.35% 912 +265.7%
Germany – -100% 32 -46.64%
Japan – -100% 54 -80.87%
Malaysia – - 60 -
UAE – -100% 9,527 -86.33%
Rapeseed Meal
Total 56,984 -50.72% 1,382,014 +13.63%
India 42,319 +31.74% 648,386 +83.68%
Canada 12,552 -84.16% 671,450 -10.21%
Ethiopia 2,113 +2.04% 14,454 -55.64%
Pakistan – -100% 47,724 -41.92%
Soyoil
Total 90,697 -36.9% 1,143,192 -14.73%
Argentina 52,500 – 413,175 +166.66%
Brazil 37,721 +12.1% 500,623 -44.53%
South Korea 230 +1500% 552 -67.96%
Russia 209 – 209 -
India 36 – 412 +1122.94%
Sweden – - 22 +134.55%
Malaysia – - 38 -
China – - 50 -
Taiwan – -100% 6 +172.33%
Canada – - 2 -89.91%
USA – -100% 228,103 -18.97%
Soymeal
Total 52,129 -20.13% 224,250 +19.45%
India 50,539 -22.28% 213,558 +18.03%
Denmark 1,050 +425% 6,250 +71.23%
Taiwan 540 +1250% 3,415 +11.6%
China – - 207 -
USA – - 820 -
Palm Oil
Total 658,744 +0.3% 5,912,232 +3.8%
Indonesia 330,373 -18.45% 2,119,085 -5.6%
Malaysia 327,668 +30.39% 3,779,937 +10.09%
Taiwan 703 +23.33% 5,322 +48.14%
Philippines – -100% 2,532 -27.51%
Singapore – - 269 -
Thailand – - 91 -
India – - 4,996 -50.09%
(Source: General Administration of Customs)

01/20 09:45p CST DJ Table Of China December Oilseed, Vegoil, Grain Exports
Table Of Exports By Grain, Oil Type And Destination
(All figures in metric tons)
Dec Change Jan-Dec Change
in Tons on Year in Tons on Year

Wheat
Total 6,629 – 39,794 +3401117.95%
Zimbabwe 6,629 – 9,723 -
Ethiopia – - 24,533 -
Kenya – - 5,534 -
Pakistan – - 5 -

Barley
Total 546 -73.69% 6,279 -53.18%
South Korea 543 -73.8% 5,740 -53.54%
USA 3 +28.73% 40 +15.16%
North Korea – - 1 -99.92%
Taiwan – - 5 -
Uzbekistan – - 420 -
Russia – - 72 -
Philippines – - 1 -
Corn
Total 2,023 -69.05% 135,997 +6.82%
North Korea 1,953 -70.12% 135,751 +54.91%
Pakistan 50 – 132 +20.33%
Vietnam 20 – 20 -
Japan – - 35 -99.87%
South Korea – - 9 -99.92%
Laos – - 50 -
Russia – - 1 -
Rice
Total 57,825 -15.69% 515,497 -16.79%
South Korea 25,000 +150% 238,905 +31.51%
North Korea 12,440 +7.45% 92,241 +9.88%
Japan 3,488 +1514.77% 27,459 -41.83%
Yemen 3,000 – 3,000 +420.83%
Vietnam 2,992 -4.53% 10,602 +25.54%
Hong Kong 2,107 -34.19% 29,882 -28.85%
Pakistan 1,530 +28.69% 5,378 -5.93%
Zimbabwe 1,478 – 4,921 -
Mongolia 1,427 -17.25% 12,973 +46.17%
Tajikistan 1,261 +515.12% 3,278 -39.08%
Kirghizstan 795 -23.27% 6,795 -2.23%
Russia 660 -62.29% 7,596 -59.52%
Myanmar 500 – 1,152 +284%
Indonesia 497 +103.51% 4,843 +29.3%
Angola 163 +409.38% 429 +37.39%
Madagascar 122 – 135 +139.8%
Kazakhstan 118 -74.18% 2,459 -72.31%
Macau 108 -44.44% 1,054 -62.58%
Philippines 108 -54.77% 1,625 +15.84%
Malawi 12 – 12 -
Zambia 10 -2.91% 129 -6.13%
Nepal Nepal 9 – 134 +44573.33%
Bangladesh 0 -99.94% 2,729 -29.85%
Turkey – - 2,748 -
Botswana – - 65 -40.91%
Djibouti – - 3,125 +12706.35%
Ethiopia – -100% 2,176 +5340.75%
Ivory Coast – -100% 5,000 -90.84%
Kenya – - 9,548 -
Liberia – -100% 6,581 -88.45%
Libya – - 1,048 +1646.67%
Iran – - 185 -
Bahrain – - 22 -
Morocco – - 3 -
Namibia – - 240 -66.67%
Sierra Leone – - 6 -2.18%
South Africa – -100% 20,000 +7.34%
Sudan – - 203 -17.14%
East Timor – -100% 5,000 +43378.26%
Laos – - 6 -
Eritrea – - 15 -
Georgia – - 120 -
Lebanon – -100% 1,574 -60.09%
Ukraine – -100% 100 -97.98%
Costa Rica – - 2 -97.98%
Soybean
Total 27,544 +118.79% 208,262 +27.3%
South Korea 23,103 +263.14% 96,801 +124.29%
Japan 2,182 -23.24% 42,922 -8.89%
Taiwan 600 -55.83% 3,375 -19.1%
USA 430 +107.5% 17,140 +15.66%
Hong Kong 379 +34.25% 4,025 -1.09%
Germany 131 -65.83% 2,114 -16.15%
Malaysia 118 -61.46% 1,603 -3.22%
East Timor 118 – 118 -
Netherlands 101 +21.89% 2,395 -30.68%
Belgium 101 -72.07% 4,782 -30.67%
Spain 84 +1300% 1,191 +41.6%
Thailand 69 +522.62% 339 +473.33%
North Korea 55 -78% 20,171 -21.71%
Australia 44 +10% 690 +246.18%
Italy 9 – 45 -46.37%
Macau 8 +210% 76 +32.31%
Angola 5 – 38 +78.44%
Singapore 5 – 72 +6.42%
Zimbabwe 1 – 1 -
Sri Lanka 1 – 1 +194.12%
UK 1 -98.11% 167 -74.05%
Ethiopia – - 1 -
Gabon – - 1 +60%
Kenya – - 3,721 +1860525%
Sierra Leone – - 1 -
South Africa – - 26 -
Sudan – - 4 -89.69%
Zambia – -100% 10 +40.27%
India – - 121 -
Eritrea – - 1 -
Brunei – - 46 +1420%
Mongolia – - 42 +222.52%
Vietnam – - 5,578 -23.7%
France – - 22 +24.88%
Qatar – - 27 -
Saudi Arabia – - 2 -80.04%
Portugal – - 7 -77.11%
Kazakhstan – - 300 -
Estonia – -100% 15 +650%
Russia – - 150 +1402.83%
Czech – - 22 -
Chile – - 10 +25.25%
Canada – -100% 31 -82.96%
Kuwait – - 9 +326%
Botswana – - 20 -
New Zealand – -100% 29 -24.45%
Rapeseed
Total – -100% 186 +69.58%
Japan – -100% 67 +94.89%
Pakistan – - 21 +20920%
South Korea – - 18 -
Tunisia – - 80 -
Rapeseed Oil
Total 305 -8.48% 3,275 -13.91%
Hong Kong 269 -19.52% 2,584 -24.97%
Macau 36 – 44 -87.04%
Cameroon 1 – 1 -
Mongolia – - 57 -
Thailand – - 15 -
Japan – - 567 +58267.08%
Zambia – - 5 -
Canada – - 2 -
Rapeseed Meal
Total 2,410 +1087.19% 9,960 -82.31%
Vietnam 2,320 – 6,063 -
Japan 90 -55.67% 3,848 -47.97%
Indonesia – - 49 -
Soyoil
Total 3,400 -34.51% 51,114 -13.8%
North Korea 2,709 -28.36% 35,766 +15.75%
Hong Kong 190 -72.32% 3,160 -67.57%
Yemen 180 – 180 -
Macau 19 +150% 144 -86.32%
Zimbabwe 1 – 2 -
Japan – - 5,157 -27.63%
East Timor – - 6 -4.64%
Angola – - 25 +284%
Djibouti – - 888 +9300.14%
Gabon – -100% 3 -46.9%
Guinea – - 1 -92.69%
Kenya – - 1,224 +1020057.5%
Zambia 0 -90.4% 35 +43.94%
Singapore – -100% 4,213 -5.75%
Soymeal
Total 21,459 -50.75% 406,319 -60.01%
Japan 9,917 -60% 250,726 -68.5%
North Korea 2,662 +5224.72% 22,417 +185.26%
South Korea 2,329 -58.52% 14,864 -79.06%
UK 1,848 -15.4% 23,626 -21.38%
Denmark 1,617 +42.58% 8,779 +112.66%
Netherlands 1,419 -28.1% 20,665 +35.77%
Switzerland 489 +77.73% 4,207 +11.87%
Norway 455 +40.75% 3,683 +362.73%
Canada 190 – 753 -3.33%
USA 180 -90.85% 17,075 -9.4%
Australia 179 +411.43% 958 +86.3%
Israel 80 -52.38% 1,542 +45.97%
Hong Kong 60 -1.64% 1,053 +387.5%
Philippines 18 – 30 +20%
Malaysia 16 – 6,834 -52.88%
Cyprus – - 466 -31.65%
Germany – - 300 -
Thailand – -100% 1 -97.42%
Finland – - 20 -
Vietnam – -100% 26,365 -45.81%
Egypt – - 17 -
Ecuador – -100% 934 +26.52%
Mexico – - 180 -23.08%
Zambia – - 350 +600%
Belgium – - 396 -
Indonesia – - 60 -76%
New Guinea – - 17 -50%
Palm Oil
Total 166 -64.18% 1,284 -17.04%
Kirghizstan 165 +233.08% 731 +48.07%
Ukraine 1 – 1 -
North Korea – -100% 549 +335.2%
Japan – - 3 -
(Source: General Administration of Customs)

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed higher on reports of cash market strength and hopes for better demand. Weak demand continues overall as there seems to be plenty of cheaply priced Wheat around the world. However, US prices are now competitive with world values and traders here hope for better demand news this week. Russia continues to be the lowest offer and still gets most of the business. However, Ukraine will probably be out of the market due to very poor weather there that has caused a lot of lost production, and there are potential problems forming in Russia and northern Africa. Overseas prices have been moving higher and US prices are lower and can compete now. Wire reports indicate that France has replaced Russia as the cheapest offer. Great Plains crops are mostly dormant. Wheat is still going to feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. Wheat prices will need very strong domestic demand and increasing export demand to hold rallies together longer term. Charts show that Wheat trends are mostly down, but are trying to bottom now.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. China imported 217,493 tons of Wheat in December, up 45 times from last year. Total exports were 1.2 million tons in 2011, up 2.5% from 2010. Informa estimated US planted area at 57.9 million acres, from 57.1 million in its previous estimate.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 587, 577, and 556 March. Support is at 602, 600, and 593 March, with resistance at 616, 619, and 625 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 631 March. Support is at 649, 644, and 635 March, with resistance at 666, 680, and 691 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 791 and706 March. Support is at 793, 789, and 783 March, and resistance is at 806, 813, and 823 March.

RICE
General Comments: Prices were near unchanged after another slow session. Price action over the last couple of weeks still implies that an important low has been made. Dry weather in Texas is a big issue for the coming year as water might not be available for irrigation in the state. It is also possible that lower production will be seen in China due to cheap current world prices, although reports indicate that Chinese prices remain very high right now. Not much demand is expected from them for now as much of the country will celebrate the Chinese New Year this week. Futures prices for next year are low in the US and offer no real reason to plant, especially in the face of higher competing crop prices. Cash markets remain quiet in the US, with almost no Rice on offer anywhere in the country. It is hard to find any demand as exports and domestic demand are both quiet. Basis levels have remained very wide due to the lack of overall demand.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions in Texas and showers are expected in the Delta. Temperatures will average near to above normal in Texas and near to above normal in the Delta.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1440, 1432, and 1420 March, with resistance at 1466, 1472, and 1488 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher Friday on reports of strong domestic cash markets and more reports of new export demand. Forecasts for improved rains through the weekend in South America were the primary negative force. However, reports indicate that only central and southern Argentina got beneficial rains. Rains farther north in Argentina and in southern Brazil were called disappointing. South American forecasts call for showers and storms around early this week and again early next week along with some cooler temperatures. Crop losses are now being reported from both countries, but rains now can help prevent further losses. Demand remains a problem for the bulls as prices for competing feed grains still are cheaper. Export demand is hurt by lower price offers from Ukraine and from offers of Feed Wheat by many countries keeps most players in a bearish mode over the longer term, but US prices are now competitive enough that Egypt and Mexico bought US Corn last week. The interior cash market is firm on only light selling interest from farmers. Charts show that trends are mostly sideways and that futures could be bottoming.
Overnight News: Basis is steady at the Gulf of Mexico. Informa now estimates US Corn planted area at 94.748 million acres, from 94.4 million in its previous estimate.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 556 March. Support is at 604, 600, and 593 March, and resistance is at 616, 619, and 625 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 302, 327, and 347 March. Support is at 289, 281, and 279 March, and resistance is at 298, 306, and 314 March.

CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE Code-002602
OPTION AND FUTURES COMBINED POSITIONS AS OF 01/17/12 |
————————————————————–| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
————————–|—————–|—————–|—————–
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
——————————————————————————–
(CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) OPEN INTEREST: 1,659,403
COMMITMENTS
319,007 122,155 484,807 676,044 761,124 1479857 1368085 179,546 291,317
CHANGES FROM 01/10/12 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -16,182)
-22,741 19,497 19,271 -13,143 -49,476 -16,613 -10,708 431 -5,474
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
19.2 7.4 29.2 40.7 45.9 89.2 82.4 10.8 17.6
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 743)
175 194 262 250 322 571 646

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on forecasts for very beneficial rains to start falling in South America. South American weather forecasts for some showers over the past weekend provided the best reason for some selling and the current forecasts call for beneficial rains and cooler temperatures that could be very beneficial to Soybeans production. However, reports indicate that only central and southern Argentina got beneficial rains. Rains farther north in Argentina and in southern Brazil were called disappointing. South American forecasts call for showers and storms around early this week and again early next week along with some cooler temperatures. Dry weather conditions in Mato Grosso in Brazil and in much of southern Brazil and Argentina continue supportive as demand could shift here if the dry weather persists. However, rain now could save the crop. There was talk that China could continue to increase purchases from here as our prices are now competitive. There is a lot of talk that they have been buying here in the last week. However, buying is likely to be less for the short term as the Chinese New Year is this week. Demand is still an issue as export sales remain behind last year. However, the sales report was strong last week and above expectations. Farmers are still not selling much as prices have dropped for them. Basis levels are firm in the country.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1149 and 1105 March. Support is at 1182, 1176, and 1166 March, and resistance is at 1204, 1213, and 1220 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 327.00 and 337.00 March. Support is at 310.00, 304.00, and 300.00 March, and resistance is at 321.00, 323.00, and 329.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4890 and 4620 March. Support is at 5010, 4940, and 4880 March, with resistance at 5100, 5190, and 5210 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on South American weather forecasts and price action in Chicago. Cash markets were reported strong as farmers have stopped selling and demand has held steady. Commercials were the best buyers and bought on ideas that Canola was cheap to other oilseeds and that there has been new export demand this week. Crushers and exporters were said to be buyers, and elevators were mostly quiet. Palm Oil was closed for the Chinese New Year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 516.00, 511.00, and 509.00 March, with resistance at 526.00, 532.00, and 538.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3065April. Support is at 3135, 3100, and 3090 April, with resistance at 3180, 3195, and 3235 April.

01/20 11:53a CST DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Weekly Crush – Jan 20
Winnipeg (Dow Jones) – The Canadian Oilseed Processors
Association reported the Canadian oilseed crush for the week
ended January 18, 2012, as follows:
Figures are in metric tons. R-denotes revision.
Cumulative Cumulative
Week 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11
Ended Canola (Aug/Jul) Sybns (Aug/Jul)
Jan 18 125,018 3,012,141 2,823,299 26,812 629,884 641,755
Jan 11 139,906 2,887,123 2,710,479 28,621 603,072 616,148
Jan 04 141,172 2,747,217 2,593,961 23,775 574,451 587,763
Dec 28 138,850 2,606,045 2,484,018 28,838 550,676 566,445
Dec 21 135,083 2,467,195 2,372,154 29,024 521,838 537,937
Crush Capacity Utilization
This Week Year-to-Date Year Ago
Canola 85.2% 87.9% 83.2%
Soybeans 59.8% 60.2% 61.3%

DAIRY
General Comments: Milk futures moved lower again on some follow through selling. Products futures were also lower. The selling was reportedly started by Kraft, who were reported to push prices of Cheese lower at the spot auction. The products were pushed to new lows for the move, but Milk held support. Trends are down, but Milk has made targets and could develop a trading range. Products have also met initial targets and could turn sideways for the short term.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are down with no objectives. Support is at 1650, 1640, and 1620 March, and resistance is at 1700, 1710, and 1730 March. Trends in Cheese are down with objectives of 1.5560 and 1.4780 March. Support is at1.5700, 1.5400, and1.5100 March, with resistance at 1.6020, 1.6100, and 1.6180 March. Trends in Butter are down with objectives of 1.5950 and 1.5325 March. Support is at 1.5900, 1.5600, and 1.5300 March, and resistance is at1.62000, 1.6225, and 1.6325 March.

01/18 11:46a CST DJ USDA CME Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Prices – Jan 19
MADISON, WI. January 19, 2012 (REPORT 3)
CME Group, CHICAGO, IL
Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Trading on Thursday, January 19, 2012
(Carload Unit = 42,000-45,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
NONFAT DRY MILK : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
EXTRA GRADE : $1.4800 : N.C.
GRADE A : $1.4500 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: NONE
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1125C (608) 278-4200

01/18 11:46a CST DJ USDA CME Daily Cash Cheddar Cheese Prices – Jan 19
MADISON, WI. January 19, 2012 (REPORT 3)
CME Group, CHICAGO, IL
Daily Cash Cheese Trading on Thursday, January 19, 2012
(Carload Unit = 40,000-44,000 lbs.)
——————————————————————
CHEESE : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
BARRELS : $1.5150 : -.0100
40# BLOCKS : $1.5450 : -.0100
——————————————————————
SALES: 1 CAR BARRELS @ $1.5150
2 CARS 40# BLOCKS @ $1.5450
LAST BID UNFILLED: NONE
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 2 CARS 40# BLOCKS @ $1.5550
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1136C (608) 278-4200

Midwest Weather: Snow or rain today and tomorrow, then mostly dry. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

One Response to Morning Grains 1/23/12

Isaac Hawkins Drasperton

February 10, 2012 - 8:22 AM at 8:22 AM

I really like the snow and seeing as the temperatures have been SO cold, I feel like its unfair we havent had more snow.

Reply

Jack Scoville

Morning Grains 1/23/12

One Response to Morning Grains 1/23/12

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Morning Grains 1/23/12

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