Jack Scoville
(312) 264-4322
01/17 10:28a CST DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-Jan 17
For the week ending Jan 12, in thousand metric tons. Includes
waterway shipments to Canada.
Grain ——-week ending——- current previous
Jan 12 Jan 5 last mkt yr mkt yr
year to date to date
Wheat 365.5 293.5 655.2 16,881.3 19,214.3
Rye 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Oats 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.9
Barley 0.0 0.2 0.5 121.9 97.9
Flaxseed 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 33.6
Corn 763.4 866.9 593.8 15,551.5 15,867.3
Sorghum 23.7 28.1 87.2 789.2 1,446.4
Soybeans 1,113.4 891.3 1,279.9 17,418.0 24,268.4
Sunflower 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 2,266.3 2,080.0 2,616.6 50,768.6 60,928.8
Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.
September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.
WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed higher on strength in other grains and a weaker US Dollar. Fundamental news to support prices remains hard to find, especially since weather conditions have improved in the Great Plains. It is still dry there overall, but some very beneficial precipitation has been seen in recent weeks. Weak demand continues overall as there seems to be plenty of cheaply priced Wheat around the world. Russia continues to be the lowest offer and still gets most of the business. However, Ukraine will probably be out of the market due to very poor weather there that has caused a lot of lost production, and there are potential problems forming in Russia and northern Africa. Great Plains crops are mostly dormant now, but have been getting good precipitation in the last couple of weeks. Overall, though, the Great plains remain drier than normal. Wheat is still going to feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. Wheat prices will need very strong domestic demand or some other news to hold rallies together. Charts show that Wheat trends are mostly down.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. Gulf basis levels are higher for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. A UAE buyer bought hard and soft Wheat overnight, and Bangladesh bought 60,000 tons from Ukraine. Syria will tender for 100,000 tons.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 587, 577, and 556 March. Support is at 600, 592, and 586 March, with resistance at 616, 619, and 625 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 654 and 631 March. Support is at 666, 661, and 659 March, with resistance at 680, 691, and 695 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 791 and706 March. Support is at 793, 789, and 783 March, and resistance is at 812, 823, and 832 March.
RICE
General Comments: Prices were higher on what seemed to be speculative buying tied to a weak US Dollar and concerns about weather around the world. Price action over the last couple of weeks still implies that an important low has been made. Dry weather in Brazil and Argentina that is hurting crops there provided the fundamental support. Private reports indicate that Rice could be hurt along with the other crops due to low water levels. Dry weather in Texas is a big issue for the coming year as water might not be available for irrigation in the state. It is also possible that lower production will be seen in China due to cheap current world prices, although reports indicate that Chinese prices remain very high right now. Futures prices for next year are low in the US and offer no real reason to plant, especially in the face of higher competing crop prices. Futures remain below cash prices near the Gulf of Mexico, and cash markets appear quiet in the US, with almost no Rice on offer anywhere in the country. However, it is hard to find any demand, either. Basis levels have remained very wide even with the move lower due to the lack of overall demand.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions in Texas and showers are expected in the Delta. Temperatures will average near to above normal in Texas and near to below normal in the Delta.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1466, 1457, and 1440 March, with resistance at 1494, 1503, and 1516 March.
01/18 07:26a CST DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jan 18
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 19.28 12.62 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 18.99 12.89 0.00
Brokens 13.64 —- —-
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher yesterday on reports of disappointing rains over the weekend in South America and a weaker US Dollar. The Dollar weakness was tied to better economic data from China. South American forecasts call for direr weather conditions again this week, but there will be some showers around by this weekend. Crop losses are now being reported from both countries, but rains now can help prevent further losses. Demand remains a problem for the bulls as prices for competing feed grains still are cheaper. Export demand is hurt by lower price offers from Ukraine and from offers of Feed Wheat by many countries keeps most players in a bearish mode over the longer term. The interior cash market is firm on only light selling interest from farmers, but demand is light as well. Charts show that trends have turned down again.
Overnight News: Basis is firm at the Gulf of Mexico. Egypt bought 120,000 tons of US Corn overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 598 and 556 March. Support is at 600, 592, and 586 March, and resistance is at 616, 619, and 625 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 270 March. Support is at 279, 271, and 265 March, and resistance is at 293, 296, and 298 March.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on speculative buying tied to a weaker US Dollar and on forecasts for lighter rains in South America. South American weather forecasts for some showers over the coming weekend provided reason for some selling interest, but disappointing rains last week and forecasts for mostly dry weather this week kept buyers around. Dry weather conditions in Mato Grosso in Brazil and in much of southern Brazil and Argentina were supportive as demand could shift here if the dry weather persists. There was talk that China could start to increase purchases from here if the dry weather continues, and they have started to buy here anyway. Oil World said it expects China to increase purchases from the world this year. Demand is still an issue as export sales remain behind last year. Farmers are still not selling much as prices have dropped for them. The NOPA monthly crush data was above expectations and supported the bulls. Basis levels are steady in the country.
Overnight News: Basis levels are firm at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is firm.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1149 and 1105 March. Support is at 1150, 1142, and 1140 March, and resistance is at 1193, 1213, and 1220 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 297.00 and 282.00 March. Support is at 300.00, 297.00, and 296.00 March, and resistance is at 311.00, 316.00, and 321.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4890 and 4620 March. Support is at 5040, 5030, and 5010 March, with resistance at 5190, 5210, and 5230 March.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on South American weather. Reports of increased farm selling and some speculative selling tied to a stronger Canadian Dollar were around as well. Commercials were the best buyers and bought on dry weather in South America and on ideas that Canola was cheap to other oilseeds. Crushers and exporters were said to be buyers, and elevators were active sellers. Speculators were reported to be buyers. Palm Oil was mixed to higher today on weather worries and higher outside markets. Weather concerns still provide support, with the drought in South America the primary focus. Traders are also getting ready for the Chinese New Year.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 507.00 and 494.00 March. Support is at 516.00, 511.00, and 509.00 March, with resistance at 526.00, 532.00, and 538.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3065April. Support is at 3135, 3100, and 3090 April, with resistance at 3175, 3180, and 3195 April.
DAIRY
General Comments: Milk Futures moved lower despite US Dollar weakness. Products futures were also lower. It was a poor performance and ideas are that dairy futures can continue to work lower over time. Cash market demand appears subdued for now. Trends turned down last week with the selling. Milk weakness can continue, but producers are enjoying cheaper feed values to help with overall profitability.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are down with objectives of 1690 and 1660 February. Support is at 1690, 1670, and 1640 February, and resistance is at 1720, 1740, and 1770 February. Trends in Cheese are mixed to down with objectives of 152.00 and 146.00 February. Support is at160.00, 158.00, and157.00 February, with resistance at 161.50, 163.00, and 164.00 February. Trends in Butter are down with objectives of 157.00 and 150.00 February. Support is at 160.00, 159.00, and 156.00 February, and resistance is at164.00, 165.50, and 166.00 February.
DJ USDA CME Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Prices – Jan 17
MADISON, WI. January 17, 2012 (REPORT 3)
CME Group, CHICAGO, IL
Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Trading on Tuesday, January 17, 2012
(Carload Unit = 42,000-45,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
NONFAT DRY MILK : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
EXTRA GRADE : $1.4800 : N.C.
GRADE A : $1.4500 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: NONE
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1114C (608) 278-4200
DJ USDA CME Daily Cash Cheddar Cheese Prices – Jan 17
MADISON, WI. January 17, 2012 (REPORT 3)
CME Group, CHICAGO, IL
Daily Cash Cheese Trading on Tuesday, January 17, 2012
(Carload Unit = 40,000-44,000 lbs.)
——————————————————————
CHEESE : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
BARRELS : $1.5375 : -.0125
40# BLOCKS : $1.5950 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: 2 CARS BARRELS @ $1.5375
LAST BID UNFILLED: NONE
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 2 CARS 40# BLOCKS @ $1.5950
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1114C (608) 278-4200
Midwest Weather: Rains or snow over the middle of the week, then dry again. Temperatures will average above normal today, then near to below normal.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
