DJ China Zhengzhou Cotton Futures Closing Prices, Volume
Friday, May 17 2013
Product Settle PrevSettle Change Open High Low Volume Open Int
CF307 19,835 19,825 10 19,860 19,865 19,805 104 3,620
CF309 20,145 20,135 10 20,105 20,180 20,100 17,602 75,634
CF311 20,190 20,185 5 20,190 20,210 20,180 48 2,384
CF401 19,935 19,930 5 19,930 19,980 19,890 5,586 43,648
CF403 19,880 19,895 -15 19,855 19,880 19,855 72 778
CF405 19,800 19,805 -5 19,900 19,900 19,760 122 164
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Change is the day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 5 metric tons.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower on no news nd speculative selling. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state. The growing conditions in Florida are improved with the recent rains, but drier weather is back. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support ítem and will be for several years. Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather, but some showrs are posible late this week.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below norml this week and near normal this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 141.00, 140.00, and 136.00 July, with resistance at 147.00, 150.00, and 153.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower again, with little in the way of news to affct prices much one way or another. Brazil weather remains mostly dry, but some áreas of Sao Paulo could see a shower by the end of the weekend, which would be beneficial. Weather in other áreas like Central America, where it has been dry, also provided some support. Trends have turned sideways to down after the recent run to higher values. Prices in general have been weak as traders anticípate another big crop out of Brazil starting the Summer, and CONAB showed a big production potential in its latest production report released this week. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry. Dry conditions are forecast to continue in most áreas, but some parts of Sao Paulo, mostly southern áreas, could get showers. Central America crops are mostly harvested and is too dry for good new crop flowering. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.744 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 128.95 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers aned rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal. LIFFE stocks are now 12,727 lots.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectivwes of 138.00, 126.00, and 116.00 July. Support is at 136.00, 132.00, and 131.00 July, and resistance is at 143.00, 146.00, and 149.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2030, 2020, and 2000 July, and resistance is at 2060, 2075, and 2100 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 170.00, 167.50, and 165.00 September, and resistance is at 176.00, 180.00, and 181.50 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower and made new lows for the move on reports of big production in Brazil. Traders remain bearish on supplies, especially from Brazil, and this has hurt New York prices. They got some big production and processing estimates for April this week. Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Brazil and expect big production as the harvest moves forward as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East as buyers get stocks in hand for Ramadan in July. Chart patterns are weak. Brazil has offered subsidies to Sugar producers located in the northeast part of the country. About 17,000 prodducers would be elegible to get assistance. That part of Brazil has been hurt by drought and Sugar production has been affected.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1670, 1610, and 1600 July July. Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1620 July, and resistance is at 1720, 1740, and 1755 July. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 476.00, 473.00, and 470.00 August, and resistance is at 487.00, 491.00, and 496.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower. It was another quiet news day. The flow of Cocoa from western Africa is down for seasonal considerations, and traders wonder about the quality and size of the mid crop after some hot and dry weather during the growing season. Reports indicate that bean sizes are small due to the heat and dry weather seen earlier in the year. The weather now is good, with more moderate temperaturas and some rains. Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well despite the improved weather as farmers have not liked offered prices. The mid crop harvest is underway, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.994 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2285, 2275, and 2255 July, with resistance at 2335, 2365, and 2370 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1515, 1490, and 1480 July, with resistance at 1560, 1580, and 1590 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.

DJ China Zhengzhou Rice Futures Closing Prices, Volume
Product Settle PrevSettle Change Open High Low Volume Open Int
ER305 2,320 2,320 0 0 0 0 0 768
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Change is the day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower after a disappointing export sales report and for chart based reasons. Chicago prices broke some layeers of support and funds did some selling. Traders also think that there will be plenty of Wheat produced around the world to help keep demand for US Wheat lower. World conditions are generally good, but it is turning dry in Black Sea áreas and has been dry in Australia until recently. US weather forecasts call for improving conditions in Wheat áreas for the US this week as temperatures turn warmer. Overall crop condition ratings are still very low. However, better weather now could help Wheat recover in the Great Plains and Wheat can add bushels with the better weather. Some showers off and on this week in northern áreas might keep planting progress slow.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains will see dry weather. Temperatures should average mostly above normal. Northern areas could see rain and showers this weekend. Temperatures should average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see a few showers again this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 653 July. Support is at 682, 679, and 665 July, with resistance at 700, 707, and 720 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 710 July. Support is at 735, 732, and 724 July, with resistance at 750, 753, and 762 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 802, 793, and 782 July, and resistance is at 812, 819, and 829 July.

RICE
General Comments: Prices closed slightly higher in range trading. The export sales report from USDA was positive for prices as the demand continues for US Rice despite high prices here when compared to Asia. Prices are relatively cheap when US Rice is compared to other origins. Futures remain well below cash prices traded in the Delta and near the Gulf of Mexico. Good weather for fieldwork is expected this week as conditions are warmer and drier. Ideas and reports of strong cash markets and tight supplies continue and commercials are said to be aggressively bidding for what Rice they can find. There is still not much farm selling for now.
Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Delta this weekend after some rains today. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1519, 1515, and 1510 July, with resistance at 1535, 1553, and 1556 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower on good planting weather and as the spot cash market remains very strong amid tight supplies. July closed on a weak note on spread liquidation. Warm and dry weather is forecast for much this week and the rate of planting should finally start to increase. Some showers and rains are likely in most áreas by this weekend. Farmers were able to plant half the crop in one week at one point last year and there are some ideas they can do that again this week. However, there should be some showers and storms around this weekend to hurt the overall planting pace. Both crops are far behind normal paces for planting. Strong cash markets provided support as there is almost nothing on offer in the country. Spot cash markets remain tight as farmers are still not selling and still not able to start fieldwork in many áreas. Ideas are that farmers might not sell much more until the new crop has been planted and established. Basis levels are still very strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 633, 625, and 621 July, and resistance is at 647, 652, and 661 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 381, 375, and 372 July, and resistance is at 386, 390, and 396 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher as domestic spot cash markets remained very tight. Some selling was noted in response for improved weather in the Midwest for this week, but this selling was overwhelmed by the spot cash market strength. Planting progress is far behind for both Corn and Soybeans right now, but farmers will have some days to make some progress now and have been very active planting Corn. Traders will watch planting progress for Corn and see if some farmers might switch to planting Soybeans. The US cash market remains tight, and domestic demand appears solid. Domestic crushers are reported to be paying more than 100 over futures in Illinois and Iowa. Soybeans have become very hard to find in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1458 July. Support is at 1410, 1399, and 1384 July, and resistance is at 1436, 1443, and 1450 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 409.00, 406.00, and 400.00 July, and resistance is at 418.00, 419.00, and 422.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4920, 4860, and 4830 July, with resistance at 4990, 5000, and 5020 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed, with July slightly lower despite tight supplies. July ran into chart resistance at the contract highs, and coud not get through them. Some long liquidation was then seen. Weather concerns are easing. Forecasts call for warmer and drier weather this weekend and Manitoba said farmers have started planting. In addition, traders are worried about demand and fear that Canola could price itself out of the market if Soybeans in the US keep working lower. But, Soybeans are moving higher and Canola looks ready to test contract highs in July. Palm Oil was slightly higher in quiet trading. There is talk of increasing demand with the Ramadan holidays coming in July. Reports of better crop conditions in the US and Southeast Asia kept prices from going too high. Traders remain mostly bearish as demand has not been real strong for the past month. Ideas are that a seasonal low in production is at hand and that production could start to increase. However, new demand ahead of Ramadan could keep overall stocks levels down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives. Support is at 622.00, 620.00, and 616.00 July, with resistance at 632.00, 635.00, and 638.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2280, 2265, and 2230 August, with resistance at 2340, 2400, and 2425 August.

DAIRY
General Comments: Dairy markets closed higher again in recovery trading. Butter and Whey were weakest, while Milk and Cheese were strongest. Better weather in the US brought ideas of increased production here. Demand has been strong for dairy in recent weeks due to the drought problems in New Zealand. The drought has increased Asian demand for US goods. New Zealand has been in a drought, but some rains have been reported recently that might be improving forage production. Futures have been strong due to the production problems in New Zealand but have given up about all fo the gains and are now back in support areas. Weather is trying to turn warmer in the Midwest, and this should increase Milk supplies. Demand for US production has picked up in the domestic market as well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are mixed. Support is at 1800, 1770, and 1755 June, and resistance is at 1840, 1860, and 1880 June. Trends in Cheese are mixed. Support is at 180.00, 178.00, and 177.00 June, with resistance at 182.00, 183.00, and 185.00 June. Trends in Butter are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 164.00, 161.00, and 158.00 June, and resistance is at 167.50, 168.50, and 170.00 June. Trends in Whey are mixed. Support is at 5700, 5600, and 5500 June, with resistance at 5800, 5900, and 6000 June.

Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Trading on Thursday, May 16, 2013
(Carload Unit = 42,000-45,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
NONFAT DRY MILK : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
EXTRA GRADE : $1.7000 : N.C.
GRADE A : $1.6800 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: 2 CARS GRADE A @ $1.6500

LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1141C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Cheese Trading on Thursday, May 16, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-44,000 lbs.)
——————————————————————
CHEESE : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
BARRELS : $1.7525 : .0225
40# BLOCKS : $1.7650 : .0100
——————————————————————
SALES: 3 CARS BARRELS:
1 @ $1.7350, 2 @ $1.7525
6 CARS 40# BLOCKS:
2 @ $1.7550, 2 @ $1.7600, 2 @ $1.7650
LAST BID UNFILLED: 4 CARS BARRELS @ $1.7525
2 CARS 40# BLOCKS @ $1.7650
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1141C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Butter Trading on Thursday, May 16, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-42,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
BUTTER : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
GRADE AA : $1.6000 : .0050
——————————————————————
SALES: 3 CARS GRADE AA @ $1.6000
LAST BID UNFILLED: 3 CARS GRADE AA @ $1.6000
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $1.6050
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1141C (608) 278-4200

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and rains in northern áreas today and next week, dry over the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 87 July 134 July 55 July 150 July 65 July 300 July
June 78 July 128 July 44 July 140 July
July 50 July 45 July 75 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.

Prescription by Dr S&Pwith Marc Nemenoff [PRICE Links Video Series] – Recorded on: 5/17/2013

Contact Marc at (888) 908-4310 or mnemenoff@pricegroup.com.

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Against a back drop of risng supply and a murky economic backdrop, RBOB gasoline rises up out of the ashes. Ok maybe not ashes but rising on refining and pipeline issues as we get ready to top off the tank for the upcoming kickoff to the summer driving season.

Just when things were looking so good for gas it just had to happen. Of course now the rest of the country might get a small taste of what the Chicago area has been struggling with. The Chicago gas prices have gone crazy as two of the three refineries that make that special “Chicago Gas”, which is that politically concocted blend that only a mandate from the State Federal And local government could dream up creates mandated shortages every spring. Midwest gas supply is at multi-decades low as the rest of the country enjoys a bounty of supplies that are at the highest levels since the 1930’s.

Yet from coast to coast it seems the gasoline gremlins are at work. In California, Bloomberg reported that BP Plc’s Carson oil refinery, the second-largest in California, performed an unscheduled shutdown of a crude unit yesterday and cut rates at two others for repairs, a person with knowledge of operations said.  The No. 4 crude unit was taken out of service to fix a valve leak and for exchanger work, and the No. 1 and No. 2 units are running at reduced rates, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the information isn’t public. The plant is processing about 45,000 barrels less a day during the work, the person said.

Also Colonial Pipeline Co. shut Line 1 pipeline for about one hour after a leak was detected yesterday, Steve Baker, a company spokesman said by e-mail to Bloomberg. They said that operations were safely resumed downstream of Hebert at normal levels and that operations from Houston-origin sources will resume once the source of gasoline found on a right of way is determined and  repairs are completed, Co. They say they do not know how much gasoline spilled.

The nat gas pulled back after a bearish injection number. The Energy Information Administration reported that working gas in storage was 1,964 Bcf as of Friday, May 10, 2013, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 99 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 694 Bcf less than last year at this time and 83 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,047 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 105 Bcf below the 5-year average following net injections of 55 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 29 Bcf below the 5-year average of 825 Bcf after a net injection of 31 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 51 Bcf above the 5-year average after a net addition of 13 Bcf. At 1,964 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.

Reuters is reporting that “North America should have enough power to meet electricity demands this summer, the region’s electric reliability organization said on Thursday.   But continued growth in Texas coupled, with only a small amount of new resources in the state, could cause problems there, the organization, the North American Electric Reliability Corp (NERC), said.     NERC is a not-for-profit entity that develops and enforces power reliability standards in the United States. Its territory covers the continental United States, Canada and the northern portion of Baja California in Mexico.  “However, continued peak demand growth in Texas coupled with only a small amount of new resources made available this summer is causing resource adequacy projections to fall below targets,” he said.

NERC said it will closely monitor the situation in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which oversees the power grid in most of Texas, as well as impacts from persisting drought conditions in the west.     In ERCOT, NERC said the anticipated reserve margin is 12.88 percent for this summer, which is below NERC’s 13.75 percent target for the area.   NERC warned that insufficient reserves during peak hours could lead to increased risk of emergency operating conditions, including curtailment of interruptible load and even rotating outages.  Interruptible load includes mostly industrial companies that pay less for power with the understanding that their supplies may be reduced or cut off if needed.     ERCOT, Texas regulators and Texas power companies have long been aware of the potential shortfall and have been taking action to tackle the problem for this summer and in the long term.   NERC also warned of tight power supplies in Southern California that may lead to “operational challenges” due to the continued shutdown of the San Onofre nuclear power plant since January 2012. ”A prolonged or extreme heat wave could result in localized controlled load shedding in San Diego and Los Angeles Basin to maintain integrity of the system,” NERC said.   Power companies in California expect several system enhancements to be in service by the summer peak, which “should relieve some operational issues and support system flexibility during conditions of stress,” NERC said.

NERC warned that increased reliance on wind and solar power resources in regions with a lot of renewable generation could pose challenges for some operators to get other plants online when the sun stops shining and the wind stops blowing.  NERC also said drought conditions west of Mississippi River could pose localized problems for some generators.    The retirement and retrofit of power plants to meet environmental regulations is not expected to cause immediate reliability concerns, NERC said   NERC also said it was watching for above-average growth in peak demand in Texas and the West, that it was expecting an active hurricane season this summer, and that it was keeping an eye on increasing dependence on natural gas to fuel power plants across the country as coal units retire.

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Thanks,

Phil Flynn
The PRICE Futures Group

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.

In the overnight electronic session the July Corn is currently trading at 643 ¾ which is 2 ¼ cents higher as I write. The trading range has been 644 ½ to 641 ½ so far. Right now farmers are in a race with the clock to get plantings behind them. Rains and another cool front has traders looking at the big picture which is supply. Remember it is not what you plant but what you grow. The supply issue is going to move this market. And I am guessing we are headed higher. Stay Tuned!

On the Energy Front the June Crude Oil is currently trading at 9556 which is 40 points higher in the overnight electronic session. The trading range has been 9579 to 9479 so far. Pipeline and refinery issues are keeping the bulls in play unlike the Chicago Bulls in the playoffs. Supplies are sufficient as we head into the changeover to summer blends of gasoline and if we can ramp up the refineries and solve the pipeline issues we should expect a break to the downside. The Natural Gas corrected yesterday after a bearish number on the weekly EIA inventory number. The technical charting formation also showed a short term topping formation which coincided with the aggressive sell off. In the overnight electronic session the June Natural Gas is currently trading at 3.960 which is .028 higher as I write. The

Trading range has been 3.978 to 3.915 so far. I expect the bulls to be back in town. On the Ethanol Front the August contract has posted a trade at 2.385 which is .015 lower so far. I expect this market to get its legs as well.

Have a Great Trading Day!

Thanks,

Daniel Flynn
The PRICE Futures Group

Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.

Grains: July Corn is currently fractionally lower at 641’0, July Beans 5’4 higher at 1433’0 and July Wheat 4’6 lower at 683’0. Planting continues at a brisk pace and weather has been cooperative for Corn putting pressure on old and new crop contracts. Given the price that May Corn went off the Board I’m inclined to believe that supply could be a near term factor and will look to be a buyer on a sharp break from current levels for the July contract. As for Dec. Corn, some underlying support should be developing as it appears to me that at current levels Cattle producers may be able to buy Dec. Corn, buy Sept. Feeder Cattle and sell Feb. Live Cattle and at the very least break even or book a profit.

Cattle: Aug. LC are currently 25 higher at 120.15 and Aug. FC 7 lower at 145.05. I will be a buyer in Aug. LC below the 118.50 level if the market allows.

Silver: July Silver is currently 20 cents lower at 22.44 and June Gold 13.00 lower at 1373.00. On Wed. we tried the long side of Gold from the 1405.00 level and either took a samll profit or were stopped out of the market at our break even level. As mentioned in my “Report” on Tuesday (5/14/2013) if the 1405.00 level does not hold the next level of support to watch will be the 1360.00 area. As of this writing the market has yet to challenge this level but did temporarily break to the 1365.00 level earlier this morning. I will try buying a break below the 1360.00 level. The next level of support will be the 1321.50 area (the April 16th low).

S&P’s: June S&P’s are currently 6.50 higher at 1654.25. Yesterday was an inside day (a lower high and higher low than the previous session) however the market did show a bit of “chink in the armor” closer lower at 1648.00. For the near term support is currently 1638.00 and resistance 1659.00.

Currencies: As of this writing the Euro is 84 lower at 1.2825, the Swiss 112 lower at 1.0293, the Yen 45 lower at 97.54 and the Pound 07 lower at 1.5196. The Jun Dollar Index is currently 60 higher at 84.32. The Dollar Index is approaching resistance in the 84.50 area at which point I will try the short side of the market with a 25 point risk.

Regards,
Marc

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Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.

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US:Consumer Sentiment (p)
9:55 AM ET

US:Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET

DJ China Zhengzhou Cotton Futures Closing Prices, Volume
Wednesday, May 15 2013
Product Settle PrevSettle Change Open High Low Volume Open Int
CF305 20,610 21,465 -855 20,940 20,940 20,605 2,042 0
CF307 19,845 19,855 -10 19,870 19,925 19,800 1,416 3,574
CF309 20,190 20,160 30 20,190 20,270 20,120 42,522 86,754
CF311 20,200 20,205 -5 20,225 20,240 20,180 112 2,386
CF401 19,965 19,960 5 19,980 20,035 19,920 6,342 44,540
CF403 19,870 19,870 0 0 0 0 0 774
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Change is the day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 5 metric tons.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed mixed on reduced production estimates from Brazil and ideas that more production cuts are coming in the US due to the greening disease. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state. The growing conditions in Florida are improved with the recent rains, but drier weather is back. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support ítem and will be for several years. Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather, but some showrs are posible late this week.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below norml this week and near normal this weekend. CitrusBR estimated Oranges production in Brazil at 268.4 million boxes, down 30.4% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 161.00 and 178.00 July. Support is at 145.00, 142.00, and 140.00 July, with resistance at 150.00, 153.00, and 160.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were slightly lower in low volumen trading. Brazil weather has improved, and some áreas of Sao Paulo could see a shower by the end of the week, which would be beneficial. Weather in other áreas like Central America, where it has been dry, also provided some support. Trends have turned sideways after the recent run to higher values. Prices in general have been weak as traders anticípate another big crop out of Brazil starting the Summer, and CONAB showed a big production potential in its latest production report released yesterday. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry for the past week. Dry conditions are forecast to continue in most áreas, but some parts of Sao Paulo could get showers. Central America crops are mostly harvested and is too dry for good new crop flowering, although rains are in the forecast for this week. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.741 million bags. In Brazil, CONAB estimated 2013-14 Coffee production at 48.6 million bags. The country is expected to produce 36.4 million bags of Arabica and 12,2 million bags of Robusta. The ICO composite price is now 131.98 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers aned rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 143.00, 140.00, and 136.00 July, and resistance is at 149.00, 150.00, and 152.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2090, 2150, and 2215 July. Support is at 2020, 1980, and 1970 July, and resistance is at 2075, 2100, and 2140 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 171.50, 170.00, and 167.50 September, and resistance is at 180.00, 182.00, and 183.00 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower and made new lows for the move on reports of big production in April from Brazil. Traders remain bearish on supplies, especially from Brazil, and this has hurt New York prices. They got some big production and processing estimates for April on Monday. Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Brazil and expect big production as the harvest moves forward as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East as buyers get stocks in hand for Ramadan in July. Chart patterns are mixed, but weak, for the short term. UNICA said that Brazil crushed 41 million tons of Sugarcane and produced 1.69 million tons of Sugar. Both amounts are almost triple those of a year ago.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1670, 1610, and 1600 July July. Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1620 July, and resistance is at 1720, 1740, and 1755 July. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 476.00, 473.00, and 470.00 August, and resistance is at 487.00, 491.00, and 496.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher in recovery trading after the big down moves last week. It was another quiet news day, although there were wire reports of some wáter damage problems for some certified stocks for LIFFE in Antwerp. The flow of Cocoa from western Africa is down for seasonal considerations, and traders wonder about the quality and size of the mid crop after some hot and dry weather during the growing season. Reports indicate that bean sizes are small due to the heat and dry weather seen earlier in the year. The weather now is good, with more moderate temperaturas and some rains. Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well despite the improved weather as farmers have not liked offered prices. The mid crop harvest is underway, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.920 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2320, 2300, and 2285 July, with resistance at 2370, 2390, and 2400 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1500 and 1465 July. Support is at 1515, 1490, and 1480 July, with resistance at 1565, 1580, and 1590 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Softs Archives • www.pricegroup.com

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 70,098 lots, or 3.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-13 4,730 4,730 4,720 4,720 4,728 4,743 15 232 0
Jul-13 4,769 4,781 4,769 4,781 4,754 4,774 20 74 346
Sep-13 4,775 4,777 4,761 4,774 4,778 4,770 -8 32,130 206,658
Nov-13 4,715 4,715 4,705 4,705 4,714 4,710 -4 22 154
Jan-14 4,645 4,667 4,645 4,662 4,660 4,656 -4 25,844 127,704
Mar-14 4,654 4,654 4,651 4,651 4,663 4,652 -11 4 4
May-14 4,580 4,641 4,580 4,638 4,611 4,613 2 11,438 19,960
Jul-14 4,628 4,631 4,625 4,631 4,649 4,627 -22 14 4
Sep-14 4,622 4,645 4,614 4,644 4,626 4,625 -1 340 1,202
Soybean No. 2
Turnover: 36 lots, or 1.44 million yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-13 – - – 4,530 4,600 4,530 -70 0 0
Jul-13 – - – 4,220 4,220 4,220 0 0 4
Sep-13 3,980 3,995 3,980 3,993 3,991 3,988 -3 30 398
Nov-13 – - – 4,205 4,208 4,205 -3 0 2
Jan-14 4,016 4,016 4,011 4,015 4,029 4,014 -15 6 16
Mar-14 – - – 4,016 4,016 4,016 0 0 2
Corn
Turnover: 139,612 lots, or 3.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-13 – - – 2,371 2,310 2,371 61 0 0
Jul-13 2,391 2,393 2,356 2,388 2,386 2,385 -1 56 578
Sep-13 2,435 2,442 2,433 2,436 2,437 2,437 0 115,710 616,374
Nov-13 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,388 2,400 12 6 82
Jan-14 2,361 2,368 2,361 2,366 2,364 2,365 1 23,824 183,320
Mar-14 2,365 2,370 2,365 2,368 2,365 2,367 2 16 136
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,821,652 lots, or 57.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-13 3,780 3,800 3,750 3,800 3,763 3,709 -54 630 0
Jul-13 3,490 3,490 3,465 3,475 3,487 3,478 -9 172 3,600
Aug-13 3,393 3,393 3,368 3,375 3,384 3,380 -4 68 556
Sep-13 3,268 3,278 3,238 3,249 3,258 3,255 -3 1,307,728 1,574,936
Nov-13 3,196 3,196 3,173 3,173 3,190 3,181 -9 44 678
Dec-13 3,106 3,106 3,099 3,100 3,103 3,100 -3 22 260
Jan-14 3,000 3,008 2,982 2,992 3,001 2,995 -6 512,782 868,942
Mar-14 3,023 3,023 2,993 3,013 3,018 3,010 -8 206 852
Palm Oil
Turnover: 960,902 lots, or 58.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-13 5,580 5,650 5,580 5,650 5,640 5,482 -158 1,044 0
Jun-13 5,652 5,698 5,650 5,698 5,798 5,662 -136 176 580
Jul-13 – - – 5,772 5,910 5,772 -138 0 36
Aug-13 5,852 5,860 5,768 5,860 6,008 5,778 -230 56 94
Sep-13 6,120 6,120 5,934 5,954 6,128 6,014 -114 716,102 538,212
Oct-13 6,110 6,110 6,042 6,042 6,248 6,098 -150 68 148
Nov-13 – - – 6,200 6,200 6,200 0 0 18
Dec-13 6,126 6,162 6,080 6,130 6,260 6,124 -136 8 12
Jan-14 6,248 6,248 6,084 6,100 6,246 6,150 -96 243,444 298,788
Feb-14 6,164 6,170 6,164 6,170 6,266 6,166 -100 4 4
Mar-14 – - – 6,238 6,262 6,238 -24 0 2
Apr-14 – - – 6,250 6,368 6,250 -118 0 4
Soybean oil
Turnover: 1,214,806 lots, or 90.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-13 7,098 7,098 7,098 7,098 7,334 7,120 -214 8 0
Jul-13 – - – 7,288 7,436 7,288 -148 0 26
Aug-13 7,432 7,432 7,292 7,322 7,480 7,322 -158 18 32
Sep-13 7,498 7,508 7,320 7,334 7,524 7,406 -118 1,062,826 768,554
Nov-13 7,538 7,538 7,412 7,516 7,648 7,490 -158 60 98
Dec-13 7,638 7,640 7,638 7,640 7,698 7,638 -60 6 16
Jan-14 7,700 7,726 7,568 7,582 7,744 7,638 -106 151,886 250,464
Mar-14 7,668 7,668 7,668 7,668 7,782 7,668 -114 2 10
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

DJ China Zhengzhou Rice Futures Closing Prices, Volume
Product Settle PrevSettle Change Open High Low Volume Open Int
ER305 2,320 2,320 0 0 0 0 0 768
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Change is the day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed mixed despite the reduced crop condition ratings from USDA. Traders had anticipated litle or no improvement in crop conditions forf Winter Wheat along with slow planting progress for Spring Wheat. Both crop conditions were shown by USDA. However, traders also think that there will be plenty of Wheat produced around the world to help keep demand for US Wheat lower. World conditions are generally good, but it is turning dry in Black Sea áreas and has been dry in Australia until recently. US weather forecasts call for improving conditions in Wheat áreas for the US this week as temperatures turn warmer. Overall crop condition ratings are still very low. However, better weather now could help Wheat recover in the Great Plains and Wheat can add bushels with the better weather. Some showers off and on this week in northern áreas might keep planting progress slow.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains will see dry weather. Temperatures should average mostly above normal. Northern areas could see dry weather this week and rain and showers this weekend. Temperatures should average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see a few showers today and again this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 701, 698, and 696 July, with resistance at 720, 728, and 735 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 753, 748, and 743 July, with resistance at 780, 791, and 799 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 805, 802, and 793 July, and resistance is at 830, 834, and 837 July.

RICE
General Comments: Prices closed lower and gave back part of the gains from Monday. Increased deliveries as May went off the board hurt the price action as did increased production estimates for this year from a Chinese think tank. Futures remain well below cash prices traded in the Delta and near the Gulf of Mexico. Good weather for fieldwork is expected this week as conditions are warmer and drier. Ideas and reports of strong cash markets and tight supplies continue and commercials are said to be aggressively bidding for what Rice they can find. There is still not much farm selling for now.
Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Delta this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1554, 1591, and 1594 July. Support is at 1534, 1519, and 1511 July, with resistance at 1556, 1558, and 1571 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 15
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 19.08 12.13 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 18.75 12.80 0.00
Brokens 13.50 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were mixed as the spot cash market remains very strong amid tight supplies. May went off the board in strong fashion, and new crop months were higher, but July closed on a weak note on spread liquidation. Warm and dry weather is forecast for much this week and the rate of planting should finally start to increase. Some showers and rains are likely in most áreas by this weekend. Farmers were able to plant half the crop in one week at one point last year. Both crops are far behind normal paces for planting. Strong cash markets provided support as there is almost nothing on offer in the country. Spot cash markets remain tight as farmers are still not selling and still not able to start fieldwork in many áreas. Ideas are that farmers might not sell much more until the new crop has been planted and established. Basis levels are still very strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 671, 675, and 700 July. Support is at 643, 633, and 625 July, and resistance is at 661, 667, and 669 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 381, 375, and 372 July, and resistance is at 386, 390, and 396 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were mixed as domestic spot cash markets remained very tight. Some selling was noted in response for improved weather in the Midwest for this week, but this selling was overwhelmed by the spot cash market strength. Planting progress is far behind for both Corn and Soybeans right now, but farmers will have some days to make some progress now. Farmers planting Corn will soon risk yield loss due to late planting and might switch to Soybeans, where yield potential can hold better, but better wether this week might put those ideas on hold. Prices could have trouble rallying significantly for the next few months, but might not go down too much, either. Traders will watch planting progress for Corn and see if some farmers might switch to planting Soybeans. The US cash market remains tight, and domestic demand appears solid. Domestic crushers are reported to be paying more than 100 over futures in Illinois and Iowa. Soybeans have become very hard to find in the US.
Overnight News: China bought 171,000 tons of US new crop Soybeans yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1458 July. Support is at 1399, 1384, and 1366 July, and resistance is at 1426, 1436, and 1443 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 409.00, 406.00, and 400.00 July, and resistance is at 419.00, 422.00, and 427.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5100 and 5300 July. Support is at 4920, 4860, and 4830 July, with resistance at 4990, 5000, and 5020 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on tight supplies. Weather concerns for the Canadian Prairies remain a positive forcé as it is still cold there. However, forecasts call for warmer and drier weather this week and Manitoba said farmers have started planting. In addition, traders are worried about demand and fear that Canola could price itself out of the market if Soybeans in the US keep working lower. But, Soybeans are moving higher and Canola looks ready to test contract highs in July. Palm Oil was slightly lower in quiet trading. Weak export data from private sources created the weakness. Little follow through buying was seen early, so some decided to sell. Reports of better crop conditions in the US and Southeast Asia kept prices from going too high. Traders remain mostly bearish as demand has not been real strong for the past month. Ideas are that a seasonal low in production is at hand and that production could start to increase. However, new demanda head of Ramadan could keep overall stocks levels down. ITS estimatede Palm Oil export so far this month at 599,300 tons, from 648,275 tons last month. SGS estimated exports so far this month at 611,277 tons, from 629,990 tons lat month Malaysia kept its export tax on crude Palm Oil at 4.5%.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 631.00 July. Support is at 620.00, 616.00, and 608.00 July, with resistance at 627.00, 632.00, and 635.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2265, 2230, and 2200 August, with resistance at 2340, 2400, and 2425 August.

DAIRY
General Comments: Dairy markets closed lower again on follow through selling. Butter and Whey were weakest, while Milk and Cheese turned more stable. Better weather in the US brought ideas of increased production here. Demand has been strong for dairy in recent weeks due to the drought problems in New Zealand. The drought has increased Asian demand for US goods. New Zealand has been in a drought, but some rains have been reported recently that might be improving forage production. Futures have been strong due to the production problems in New Zealand but have given up about all fo the gains and are now back in support areas. Weather is trying to turn warmer in the Midwest, and this should increase Milk supplies. Demand for US production has picked up in the domestic market as well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Milk are down with no objectives. Support is at 1770, 1755, and 1730 June, and resistance is at 1800, 1825, and 1840 June. Trends in Cheese are down with no objectives. Support is at 174.50, 172.00, and 169.00 June, with resistance at 177.00, 180.00, and 181.50 June. Trends in Butter are down with no objectives. Support is at 164.00, 161.00, and 158.00 June, and resistance is at 167.50, 168.50, and 170.00 June. Trends in Whey are mixed. Support is at 5600, 5500, and 5400 June, with resistance at 5700, 5800, and 5900 June.

Daily Cash Nonfat Dry Milk Trading on Tuesday, May 14, 2013
(Carload Unit = 42,000-45,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
NONFAT DRY MILK : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
EXTRA GRADE : $1.7000 : N.C.
GRADE A : $1.7000 : N.C.
——————————————————————
SALES: NONE
LAST BID UNFILLED: NONE
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 1 CAR GRADE A @ $1.7000
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1154C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Cheese Trading on Tuesday, May 14, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-44,000 lbs.)
——————————————————————
CHEESE : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
BARRELS : $1.7250 : .0025
40# BLOCKS : $1.7800 : -.0225
——————————————————————
SALES: 8 CARS BARRELS:
7 @ $1.7225, 1 @ $1.7250
6 CARS 40# BLOCKS:
5 @ $1.7900, 1 @ $1.7800
LAST BID UNFILLED: 2 CARS BARRELS @ $1.7225
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: NONE
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1155C (608) 278-4200

Daily Cash Butter Trading on Tuesday, May 14, 2013
(Carload Unit = 40,000-42,000 lbs)
——————————————————————
BUTTER : CLOSE : CHANGE
——————————————————————
GRADE AA : $1.5875 : -.0225
——————————————————————
SALES: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $1.5875
LAST BID UNFILLED: 1 CAR GRADE AA @ $1.5825
LAST OFFER UNCOVERED: 2 CARS GRADE AA @ $1.6100
Close represents US $ per pound. Change is price change from previous close.
Information disseminated by USDA, Dairy Market News – Madison, WI
1154C (608) 278-4200

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and rains in northern áreas toimorrow and Wednesday, otherwise dry. Temperatures will average near to above normal today.

FOB Gulf Basis Levels-Cents per Bushel
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 134 July 55 July 65 May 65 July 300 July
June 78 July 128 July 44 July 110 July
July 45 July 70 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Grains Archives • www.pricegroup.com

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.

Oil prices are falling despite a late day surprising dead cat bounce as oil inventories and weak industrial data weighs on the market outlook. Of course a risng stock market gave bulls some hope along with nonexistent producer price inflation but from a preponderance of data and rising global inventories the rally is going to need some help to keep oil above $90 a barrel.

A drop below $90 a barrel will not be surprising as we have felt that 87-88 should be near the lower end of our trading range. That means that retail gas prices should continue to fall except in the Midwest wear supply is at multi decade lows for this time of year due to a rash of reefing and pipeline issues. Wild swings in the Midwest cash markets have gasoline buyers going crazy. Yet it was probably the risng stock market and the upcoming Memorial Day holiday that helps gas and oil rebound because it was not the Energy Information Administration supply report.  While the EIA reported that over all crude stocks fell by 624,000 barrels they actually rose in Cushing Oklahoma. We also saw a boost in gasoline stocks as they increased by 2.59 million barrels and distillates up by 2.3 million barrels.

The ongoing EU price collusion investigation case in the thinly traded and shadowy world of European cash energy markets may be becoming clearer. Reuters reports that  “A Hungarian ethanol producer said it alerted the European Commission over the role of price agency Platts in setting prices, feeding into an investigation of three major oil companies. Pannonia Ethanol, a recent entrant to Europe’s ethanol market, on Wednesday became the first company to identify itself as having complained to Brussels.

The Commission said on Tuesday it was concerned that the three companies – Royal Dutch Shell RDSa.L, BP BP.L and Statoil STL.OL – may have colluded in reporting distorted prices to Platts to manipulate published assessments for oil and biofuel products. The European Union executive, responsible for anti-trust regulation, also said companies may have prevented others from participating in the price assessment process.

Pannonia Ethanol said it approached Platts last spring to gain access to the publisher’s market-on-close (MOC) system – a daily half-hour window during which it determines prices on the basis of bids, offers and trades by participating companies. The pricing agency has a stringent process for letting new companies become contributors to price assessments.”We kept getting list after list of more things we had to do to get into the window. Platts kept saying they were exercising ‘editorial discretion’ and never gave us a definitive reason why they weren’t letting us in on the window,” said Eric Sievers, CEO of Ethanol Europe, the holding company of Pannonia Ethanol. Platts’ behavior was very strange and certainly unprofessional and so we finally went to the Commission. They listened and asked a lot of questions.”

Sievers said Pannonia Ethanol told the European authorities that the company would often sell ethanol for less than the price that was traded in the Platts window. The nature of the company’s complaint was that the actual impact of Platts on the market was to reduce liquidity and that it had an adverse impact on the ethanol market in Europe, Sievers said. He said the company was probably only a small part of the European Commission’s overall investigation, but its experience might be representative of the way Platts operates. Europe’s ethanol market is illiquid. Big players include BP, Shell, Abengoa ABG.MC and Cargill CARG.UL. Sievers said Platts – a unit of McGraw Hill MHFI.N – should clearly spell out objective admissions criteria for its window as well as an objective methodology for how it determines prices. “We need to be able to hold Platts accountable,” he said. Pannonia, based in Dunafoldvar in Hungary, has a 220-million-litre a year plant making fuel ethanol. Thomson Reuters TRI.TO, parent of Reuters news, competes with Platts in providing news and information to the oil market.

Natural Gas is back on the attack. Crazy cold and warm weather giving the market support also the fact that oil is under pressure.  What shoulder season? Natural Gas acting as a safe haven against oil again! Call me for the play!

Did you miss my webinar with Mark Sebastian? Call me today to get a copy! You can now follow me on Twitter at energyphilflynn and Facebook. Make sure you call me today to get your account open! Call for INFO today! (888-264-5665) or Email pflynn@pricegroup.com.
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Thanks,

Phil Flynn
The PRICE Futures Group

Questions? Ask Phil Flynn today at 312-264-4364

View The Energy Report Archives • www.pricegroup.com

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.

In the overnight electronic session the July Corn is currently trading at 651 ½ which is ¾ of a cent higher as I write. The trading range has been 651 ¾ to 648 ½ so far. Farmers are playing catch up with plantings as we have had more seasonable weather in the Corn growing areas. However, we may see another side of Mother Nature as more rain and cooler temps are forecasted in the horizon. The market may see a chop as we get late in the planting season and ride the crazy weather we are experiencing.

On the Energy Front the June Crude Oil is currently trading at 9371 which is 59 points lower in the overnight electronic session. The trading range has been 9437 to 9323 so far. Yesterday’s weekly EIA inventory data was bearish, however refinery rumors abound regarding slowdowns and maintenance kept prices from a free fall. I expect the market has priced these refinery issues in and expect the market to trade lower today. On the Natural Gas front we are currently trading at 4.056 which is down .014 in the June contract in the overnight electronic session. This little break seems to be squaring off going into the EIA weekly inventory number where the street average is looking for a build of 95 billion cubic feet. No trades in the Ethanol contract but expect bids to be coming in mostly steady to lower this morning.

Have a Great Trading Day!

Thanks,

Daniel Flynn
The PRICE Futures Group

Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374

View The Corn & Ethanol Report Archives • www.pricegroup.com

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.

Debby Hallett is director of performance analysis for Arthur Bell Certified Public Accountants, a firm specializing in audit, tax, accounting, and advisory services for the alternative investment sector. Hallett, a licensed CPA, focuses on CTA and fund manager reporting procedures. She spoke with John Lothian News Editor-at-Large Doug Ashburn about presenting performance when a managed account is a fund, the differences between fund performance and CTA program performance, performance record examinations, and why more CTAs are outsourcing performance reporting services to a third party provider.

Watch the video »

Chasing Returns: The Dangers of Linear Thinking
KD Foster, The PRICE Futures Group
As my old boss Jeff Gordon (one of the Turtles) used to say, “good times follow bad and the other way around”. I would laugh because it is a truism – of course good times follow the bad. The question is – when does the change happen? While we still need to look at the past for indications of how something will work going forward, we don’t want to fall into the “linear thought trap”.
http://jlne.ws/11crN4i

http://www.jlnmanagedfutures.com/2013/05/may-15-2013/

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EMU:Merchandise Trade
5:00 AM ET

US:Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET

US:Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET

US:Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

US:Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET

US:Philadelphia Fed Survey
10:00 AM ET

US:EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

US:Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET

US:Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

NZ:Producer Price Index
6:45 PM ET

Temperatures in central and mid-Atlantic states will be higher than average through May 20, Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland, said today in a note to clients.Cincinnati will reach 93 degrees Fahrenheit (34 degrees Celsius) today, 18 degrees higher than usual, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.

“It’s summer here today,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “We’re going from turning on the heaters to turning on the air conditioners in 24 hours, and that’s giving the market some support.”

Futures for June delivery rose 3.5 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $4.059 per million British thermal units at 9:21 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Trading at that time was 0.6 percent above the 100-day average. Prices reached $4.078 in earlier trading, the highest intraday price since May 2.

The fuel has advanced 21 percent this year as the coldest March since 2002 eliminated a supply glut that had persisted since September 2011. Inventories expanded to 60.5 percent above the five-year average in March 2012 until above-normal demand pushed stockpiles to 5 percent below the average last week.

The Energy Information Administration may report tomorrow that natural gas in storage increased by 95 billion cubic feet in the seven days ended May 10, according to the median of 14 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The five year average gain for the week is 83 billion, and last year’s injection was 56 billion, according to the EIA, the statistical arm of the Energy Department.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-15/natural-gas-rises-to-two-week-high-as-heat-boosts-fuel-demand.html

Oil is sinking on demand concerns as Europe looks like it is getting more deeply mired in recession. While Germany had some growth, France is going back into recession. Over all, the Eurozone saw growth fall for the longest recession since the EU was founded. Obviously this does not bode well for oil as it will raise demand concerns not just in Europe but for one of its major goods provider China.

At the same time it does not bode well for the euro-currency. With the EU in recession, the possibility for more easing is raised and the dollar will rally making crude oil that is priced in dollars cheaper. This come as OPEC is raising production. Not too bullish for prices. If we are to rebound we need to see some exceptional data out of the US, great but not to great as that may send the dollar even higher.

And we will have plenty of data to latch onto such as the MBA mortgage Index, the PPI, Empire State Manufacturing, and Industrial Production not to mention the Energy Information Agency weekly status report. The API reported that crude Oil Inventories rose again by 1.11 million barrels. Bearish! Distillates rose by 1.92 million barrels. Bearish! Gasoline down 480,000 barrels Supportive!

Now for the latest in the paper Brent /Forties/Ekofisk soap opera. The EU raided the offices of erg) — Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Statoil ASA and the Plats reporting agency looking into whether they were in cahoots to manipulate published prices.

Of course in the world of voluntary price reporting in the shadowy world of the Brent cash market this is going to be very interesting to prove. They have been ongoing arguments between the oil companies, cash player and the oil companies. In fact Shell actually threatened to boycott Platts and offer up their own cash price.

The moral of this story is why futures markets are so important. With speculators and hedgers providing price discovery prices are less susceptible to manipulation. This is also another nail in the coffin to the reputation of Brent crude as a global benchmark. The winner will be the most actively traded crude contract in the world the West Texas Intermediate.

You can now follow me on Twitter at energyphilflynn and Facebook. Make sure you call me today to get your account open! Call for INFO today! (888-264-5665) or Email pflynn@pricegroup.com.

Open a Trading Account in 15 minutes – Make Sure You Open Your Account Today! Don’t Risk Losing the Trade Levels!  Here is the link to apply online: https://newaccount.admis.com/?office=269
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Thanks,

Phil Flynn
The PRICE Futures Group

Questions? Ask Phil Flynn today at 312-264-4364

The Energy Report

View The Energy Report Archives • www.pricegroup.com

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.

In the overnight electronic session the July Corn is currently trading at 650 ½ which is 2 cents lower as I write. The trading range has been 652 ¾ to 649 ½ so far. With the warmer weather despite the rains this market will be susceptible to breaks to the downside. The market may chop with my overall bullish forecast and hopefully we will see the last of a Canadian cold front for the coming months.

On the Energy Front the June Crude Oil is currently trading at 9321 which is 100 points lower as I write. The trading range has been 9443 to 9292 so far. The API number showed a build of 1.1 MLN BBLS which was in line with expectations which helped pressure the bulls to the sidelines. The Gasoline showed a slight draw and Distillates were a little higher than anticipated. We will wait to see if we have any follow through with the EIA data to be released at 9:30 A.M. C.S.T. that will or will not confirm the API data.

Stay Tuned!

The Natural Gas continues to roll like a juggernaut with the June contract currently trading at 405 which is .026 higher in the overnight electronic session. On the Ethanol Front we have no trades posted in the overnight session but expect bids to come in steady to lower.

Have a Great Trading Day!

Thanks,

Daniel Flynn
The PRICE Futures Group

Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374

View The Corn & Ethanol Report Archives • www.pricegroup.com

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.

Grains: July Corn is currently 4’6 lower at 648’6, July Beans 7’2 lower at 1407’4 and July Wheat 5’4 lower at 705’2. I remain on the sidelines. Planting continues at a brisk pace catching up with delays from the wet weather in April. Support for July Corn is currently 620’0 and resistance 660’0. A strong Dollar could limit any upside potential for the short term.

Cattle: Aug. LC are currently unchanged at 120.40 and Aug. FC 40 lower at 1406.02. We are covering short futures hedges and replacing them with out of the money puts in an effort to take advantage of an oversold situation. Speculatively we will be a buyer on a 200 point break from current levels.

Silver: July Silver is currently 50 cents lower at 22.88 and June Gold 14.00 lower at 1410.50. Gold has tested support in the 1405.00 area(see “Report” dated 5/14/2013). If you went long on this break to supporteither take the short term profit or use a protective sell stop at your break even level.

S&P’s: June S&P’s are currently 3.00 lower at 1645.00. Yesterday the market once again made new highs on positive economic data and surveys asserting that small businesses are doing better. Support is currently 1526.00 and resistance 1549.00. I am on the sidelines.

Currencies: As of this writing the June Euro is currently 57 lower at 1.2882, the Swiss 29 lower at 1.0328, the Yen 8 lower 97.74 and the Pound 14 higher at 1.5231. Trends remain down but these markets appear to be oversold and I will be looking for short term buying opportunities with close stops. The June Dollar Index is currently 23 higher at 83.94. The Dollar is coming close to long term resistance in the 84.40 area. I will be looking to sell rallies above 88.30 with a protective buy stop in the 84.65 area.

Regards,
Marc

Questions? Ask Marc Nemenoff today at 312-264-4310

View The Nemenoff Report Archives • www.pricegroup.com

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.

DJ China Zhengzhou Cotton Futures Closing Prices, Volume
Wednesday, May 15 2013
Product Settle PrevSettle Change Open High Low Volume Open Int
CF305 20,610 21,465 -855 20,940 20,940 20,605 2,042 0
CF307 19,845 19,855 -10 19,870 19,925 19,800 1,416 3,574
CF309 20,190 20,160 30 20,190 20,270 20,120 42,522 86,754
CF311 20,200 20,205 -5 20,225 20,240 20,180 112 2,386
CF401 19,965 19,960 5 19,980 20,035 19,920 6,342 44,540
CF403 19,870 19,870 0 0 0 0 0 774
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Change is the day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 5 metric tons.

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed mixed on reduced production estimates from Brazil and ideas that more production cuts are coming in the US due to the greening disease. Traders are wrestling with more reports of losses from greening disease on the one side and beneficial rains that have hit the state. The growing conditions in Florida are improved with the recent rains, but drier weather is back. Greening disease and what it might mean to production prospects continues to be a primary support ítem and will be for several years. Irrigation is widespread, even with recent rains. Temperatures are warm in the state. The Valencia harvest is continuing. Brazil is seeing near to above normal temperatures and dry weather, but some showrs are posible late this week.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below norml this week and near normal this weekend. CitrusBR estimated Oranges production in Brazil at 268.4 million boxes, down 30.4% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 161.00 and 178.00 July. Support is at 145.00, 142.00, and 140.00 July, with resistance at 150.00, 153.00, and 160.00 July.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were slightly lower in low volumen trading. Brazil weather has improved, and some áreas of Sao Paulo could see a shower by the end of the week, which would be beneficial. Weather in other áreas like Central America, where it has been dry, also provided some support. Trends have turned sideways after the recent run to higher values. Prices in general have been weak as traders anticípate another big crop out of Brazil starting the Summer, and CONAB showed a big production potential in its latest production report released yesterday. Current crop development is still good this year in Brazil, but it has been dry for the past week. Dry conditions are forecast to continue in most áreas, but some parts of Sao Paulo could get showers. Central America crops are mostly harvested and is too dry for good new crop flowering, although rains are in the forecast for this week. Colombia is reported to have good conditions.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.741 million bags. In Brazil, CONAB estimated 2013-14 Coffee production at 48.6 million bags. The country is expected to produce 36.4 million bags of Arabica and 12,2 million bags of Robusta. The ICO composite price is now 131.98 ct/lb. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered showers, and Central America and Mexico should get showers aned rains. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 143.00, 140.00, and 136.00 July, and resistance is at 149.00, 150.00, and 152.00 July. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2090, 2150, and 2215 July. Support is at 2020, 1980, and 1970 July, and resistance is at 2075, 2100, and 2140 July. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 171.50, 170.00, and 167.50 September, and resistance is at 180.00, 182.00, and 183.00 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower and made new lows for the move on reports of big production in April from Brazil. Traders remain bearish on supplies, especially from Brazil, and this has hurt New York prices. They got some big production and processing estimates for April on Monday. Traders are keeping an eye on developments in Brazil and expect big production as the harvest moves forward as the weather is good. Demand is said to be strong from North Africa and the Middle East as buyers get stocks in hand for Ramadan in July. Chart patterns are mixed, but weak, for the short term. UNICA said that Brazil crushed 41 million tons of Sugarcane and produced 1.69 million tons of Sugar. Both amounts are almost triple those of a year ago.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1670, 1610, and 1600 July July. Support is at 1680, 1650, and 1620 July, and resistance is at 1720, 1740, and 1755 July. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 476.00, 473.00, and 470.00 August, and resistance is at 487.00, 491.00, and 496.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher in recovery trading after the big down moves last week. It was another quiet news day, although there were wire reports of some wáter damage problems for some certified stocks for LIFFE in Antwerp. The flow of Cocoa from western Africa is down for seasonal considerations, and traders wonder about the quality and size of the mid crop after some hot and dry weather during the growing season. Reports indicate that bean sizes are small due to the heat and dry weather seen earlier in the year. The weather now is good, with more moderate temperaturas and some rains. Ideas are that production in West Africa could be less next crop year as well despite the improved weather as farmers have not liked offered prices. The mid crop harvest is underway, and less than expected production along with smaller beans is reported. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of isolated showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.920 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2320, 2300, and 2285 July, with resistance at 2370, 2390, and 2400 July. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1500 and 1465 July. Support is at 1515, 1490, and 1480 July, with resistance at 1565, 1580, and 1590 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Softs Archives • www.pricegroup.com

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. The information presented is from sources believed to be reliable and all information is subject to change without notice.