Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Wholesale Trade at 7:30 A.M., Wholesale Inventories at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., Fed Jefferson Speech at 10:00 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Collins Speech at 10:45 A.M., 10-Year Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Cook Speech at 12:30 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
Were coming in lower this morning as traders prepare for Friday’s USDA May crop report. Talk on the street is the report is expected to produce “market fireworks” with initial 2024/25 world and US balance sheets included. Private analysts maintain that US 2023/24 and 2024/25 corn end stocks will hold above 2,000 Mil Bu while soybean and wheat stocks grow on larger pending soybean and wheat stocks grow larger pending harvests. And its doubtful that WASDE will cut the 2024 Russian wheat crop this early in the season with product pegged at 89-91 MMT’s. The May USDA reports are likely to be bearish. If we see a bullish USDA surprises, they will be 2024 South American crop sizes with WASDE expected to adjust Argentine corn (corn stunt disease) and Brazilian soybean crop lower due to historic flooding across RDDS. Argentine and Brazilian grain exports will be trimmed allowing a US export opportunity. The Argentine soybean was delayed by excessive rain which slowed the arrival of new crop soybeans product supplies to world importers. However the Argy soybean harvest has accelerated and nearing 45% complete with export licenses rising sharply. In the past week Argentine grain exporters registered 600,000 Mt’s of soybean, 1.12 MMT’s of meal, ^0,ooo Mt’s of soybean oil. Other news a national labor strike is planned across Argentina which includes the Oilseed Processors Union to protest President Milei’s tax hikes and the privatization of state assets. The strike is expected to be a 1-day affair and will not have a lasting impact on Argentine soybean crush or export potential. A weeklong window for US spring seeding is forecast for Central US with wet weather to return May 16th . The warm/dry 6-7 days should allow for considerable corn/soybean/spring wheat seeding progress. The forecasts call for wet weather to return to the Central US beyond May 16th . The chance of rain includes the Western Plains where cool temperatures favor Hard Red Winter wheat yields.
USDA & Adjusting Risk. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/08/2024
We kickoff the day with MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate, MBA Mortgage Applications, MBA Mortgage Market Index, MBA Mortgage Refinance Index, and MBA Purchase Index at 6:00 A.M., Wholesale Trade at 7:30 A.M., Wholesale Inventories at 9:00 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., Fed Jefferson Speech at 10:00 A.M., 17-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., Fed Collins Speech at 10:45 A.M., 10-Year Auction at 12:00 P.M., Fed Cook Speech at 12:30 P.M., and Dairy Products Sales at 2:00 P.M.
Were coming in lower this morning as traders prepare for Friday’s USDA May crop report. Talk on the street is the report is expected to produce “market fireworks” with initial 2024/25 world and US balance sheets included. Private analysts maintain that US 2023/24 and 2024/25 corn end stocks will hold above 2,000 Mil Bu while soybean and wheat stocks grow on larger pending soybean and wheat stocks grow larger pending harvests. And its doubtful that WASDE will cut the 2024 Russian wheat crop this early in the season with product pegged at 89-91 MMT’s. The May USDA reports are likely to be bearish. If we see a bullish USDA surprises, they will be 2024 South American crop sizes with WASDE expected to adjust Argentine corn (corn stunt disease) and Brazilian soybean crop lower due to historic flooding across RDDS. Argentine and Brazilian grain exports will be trimmed allowing a US export opportunity. The Argentine soybean was delayed by excessive rain which slowed the arrival of new crop soybeans product supplies to world importers. However the Argy soybean harvest has accelerated and nearing 45% complete with export licenses rising sharply. In the past week Argentine grain exporters registered 600,000 Mt’s of soybean, 1.12 MMT’s of meal, ^0,ooo Mt’s of soybean oil. Other news a national labor strike is planned across Argentina which includes the Oilseed Processors Union to protest President Milei’s tax hikes and the privatization of state assets. The strike is expected to be a 1-day affair and will not have a lasting impact on Argentine soybean crush or export potential. A weeklong window for US spring seeding is forecast for Central US with wet weather to return May 16th . The warm/dry 6-7 days should allow for considerable corn/soybean/spring wheat seeding progress. The forecasts call for wet weather to return to the Central US beyond May 16th . The chance of rain includes the Western Plains where cool temperatures favor Hard Red Winter wheat yields.
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Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn