Dan Flynn is the writer of The Corn & Ethanol Report, a daily market letter covering grains, energies, and various global issues that are the driving force and backbone of the commodity markets. Contact Mr. Flynn at (312) 264-4374
We kickoff the day with Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index at 9:00 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs. at 9:30 A.M., Fed Kashkari Speech and 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Consumer Credit Change at 2:00 P.M., API Energy Stocks, Used Car Prices MoM & YoY, and LMI Logistics Managers Index at 3:30 P.M.
The grains had a turnaround yesterday. Unfortunately the market is having a tough time of deciphering basic fundamentals which is adding to volatility and heavy shorts wanting to command and dominate the marketplace. Managed money has been liquidating longs which help propel yesterday’s rally. If CBOT calendar spreads may cause fund managers to roll forward and hold a net short position. Traders are looking for fund managers next move. Do they keep their powder dry? Or most likely window dress before their next short onslaught. Average estimates for Friday’s USDA report are 696 Mil Bu of US 2024/25 wheat end stocks unchanged, 2,100 Mil Bu of corn down 22 Mil Bu, and 339 Mil Bu of soybeans which is unchanged. New crop US 24/25 end stocks are forecast at 786 Mil Bu of wheat (up 90 Bil Bu from 23/24, 2,285 Mil Bu of corn (up 185 Mil Bu), and 431 Mil Bu of soybeans (up 90 Mil Bu). Internationally, traders look for the WASDE to report a 52 MMT’s of Argy corn crop (down 3 MMT’s), 49.6 MMT’s soybean crop (down 400,000 MT’s), a Brazilian soybean crop of 152.5 MMT’s (down 2.5 MMT’s). The USDA could forecast a 24/25 Brazilian soybean crop at a record large 166-168 MMT’s. It will be difficult for Friday’s WASE report to be overly bullish. So buckle up your chinstrap as volatility and volume are expected to pick up in the US market.
Fund Liquidation Before WASDE. The Corn & Ethanol Report 05/07/2024
We kickoff the day with Redbook YoY at 7:55 A.M., RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index at 9:00 A.M., NY Fed Treasury Purchases 0 to 1 yrs. at 9:30 A.M., Fed Kashkari Speech and 42-Day Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 3-Year Note Auction at 12:00 P.M., Consumer Credit Change at 2:00 P.M., API Energy Stocks, Used Car Prices MoM & YoY, and LMI Logistics Managers Index at 3:30 P.M.
The grains had a turnaround yesterday. Unfortunately the market is having a tough time of deciphering basic fundamentals which is adding to volatility and heavy shorts wanting to command and dominate the marketplace. Managed money has been liquidating longs which help propel yesterday’s rally. If CBOT calendar spreads may cause fund managers to roll forward and hold a net short position. Traders are looking for fund managers next move. Do they keep their powder dry? Or most likely window dress before their next short onslaught. Average estimates for Friday’s USDA report are 696 Mil Bu of US 2024/25 wheat end stocks unchanged, 2,100 Mil Bu of corn down 22 Mil Bu, and 339 Mil Bu of soybeans which is unchanged. New crop US 24/25 end stocks are forecast at 786 Mil Bu of wheat (up 90 Bil Bu from 23/24, 2,285 Mil Bu of corn (up 185 Mil Bu), and 431 Mil Bu of soybeans (up 90 Mil Bu). Internationally, traders look for the WASDE to report a 52 MMT’s of Argy corn crop (down 3 MMT’s), 49.6 MMT’s soybean crop (down 400,000 MT’s), a Brazilian soybean crop of 152.5 MMT’s (down 2.5 MMT’s). The USDA could forecast a 24/25 Brazilian soybean crop at a record large 166-168 MMT’s. It will be difficult for Friday’s WASE report to be overly bullish. So buckle up your chinstrap as volatility and volume are expected to pick up in the US market.
Have A Great Trading Day!
Thanks,
Questions? Ask Dan Flynn today at 312-264-4374Daniel Flynn