Softs Report 04/30/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher yesterday in sideways trading. Demand remains a problem. The export sales report showed poor sales once again. USDA made no changes to the domestic supply or demand sides of the balance sheets, but did cut world ending stocks slightly. Trends are still down on the weekly charts. Demand has been weaker so far this year. The US economic data has been positive, but the Chinese economic data has not been real positive and demand concerns are still around. However, Chinese consumer demand has held together well, leading some to think that demand for Cotton in world markets will increase over time.
Overnight News: The Delta will get mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. The Southeast will see showers and rains and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions and near normal temperatures. ICE said that 198 notices were post4ed for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 411 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 80.60, 79.70, and 79.10 July, with resistance of 82.50, 84.30 and 86.20 July.

This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Planted 15 11 14 14

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower yesterday and the market can’t seem to settle on a direction for prices. Reports of tight supplies are around. Futures still appear to have topped out and a range trade has been seen. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now. The weather has improved in Brazil with some moderation in temperatures and increased rainfall amid reports of short supplies in Florida and Brazil are around but will start to disappear as the weather improves and the new crop gets harvested.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil should get scattered showers and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 354.00, 350.00, and 347.00 July, with resistance at 380.00, 391.00, and 392.00Julay.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on a lack of offers from Brazil and Vietnam. The lack of Robusta Coffee in the market is still the main feature, but less offers of Arabica are also noted. Robusta offers from Vietnam remain difficult to find and the lack of offer of Robusta is a bullish force behind the London market action. There were some indications that Vietnam producers were now offering a little Coffee, but not much and not nearly enough to satisfy demand. Vietnamese producers are reported to have about a quarter of the crop left to sell or less and reports indicate that Brazil producers are reluctant sellers for now after selling a lot earlier in the year. The next Robusta harvest in Brazil is starting now and offers for all Coffee increased last week in part on weakness in the Real.
Overnight News: The ICO daily average price is now 226.26 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly scattered showers with near normal temperatures. Central America will get mostly dry conditions. Vietnam will see scattered showers. ICE NY said that 36 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 866 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 221.00 and 204.00 July. Support is at 220.00, 215.00, and 213.00 July, and resistance is at 231.00, 245.00 and 253.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4070, 3950, and 3720 July, with resistance at 4340, 4420, and 4480 July.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday and trends remain down on the charts as the market seems to have supplies available for sale. There are still ideas that the Brazil harvest can be strong for the next few weeks if not longer and production data released last week by CONAB indicated that the cane harvest could be less, but that Sugar production could be higher. Indian production estimates are creeping higher but are still reduced from recent years. There are worries about the Thai and Indian production, but data shows better than expected production from both countries. Offers from Brazil are still active but other origins. are still not offering in large amounts except for Ukraine. Ukraine offers have suffered lately with the war.
Overnight News: Brazil will get rains in the south and scattered showers in the north. Temperatures should average above normal. India will get mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1890, 1860, and 1830 July and resistance is at 1990, 2050, and 2100 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 560.00, 554.00, and 548.00 August, with resistance at 580.00, 590.00, and 600.00 August.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London were sharply lower yesterday and trends are down on the daily charts. It seemed that speculators were liquidating long positions. Production concerns in West Africa as well as demand from nontraditional sources along with traditional buyers keep supporting futures. Production in West Africa could be reduced this year due to the extreme weather which included Harmattan conditions. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted and projections for another production deficit against demand for the coming year are increasing. Ideas of tig8ht supplies remain based on more reports of reduced arrivals in Ivory Coast and Ghana continue. Mid crop harvest is now underway and here are hopes for additional supplies for the market from the second harvest. Demand continues to be strong, especially from traditional buyers of Cocoa.
Overnight News: Isolated showers are forecast for West Africa. Temperatures will be near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get isolated showers and above normal temperatures. ICE NY said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery against May futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 827 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 8700, 8330, and 8060 July, with resistance at 9600, 10210, and 11030 May. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 7480, 7200, and 6460 July, with resistance at 8040, 8910, and 9160 July.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322