Grains Report 04/16/2024

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for April Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed Apr 1 102.0 101.6-102.5
Placed in Mar 92.8 90.0- 94.7
Marketed in Mar 89.0 86.5- 91.3
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Apr 1 in Mar in Mar
Allegiant Commodity Group 102.2 93.2 87.1
Allendale Inc. 102.5 94.7 89.8
HedgersEdge 101.6 93.3 91.1
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 101.9 91.8 88.0
Midwest Market Solutions 101.8 93.5 91.3
NFC Markets 102.3 92.9 86.5
Texas A&M Extension 101.7 90.0 87.7
US Commodities 102.0 92.0 90.0

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Apr 15
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Apr 15, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING APR 11, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 04/11/2024 04/04/2024 04/13/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 2,058 2,154
CORN 1,331,683 1,442,816 1,237,260 28,681,966 21,445,968
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 24 200
MIXED 0 499 0 572 0
OATS 0 0 0 3,994 6,486
RYE 0 0 0 72 0
SORGHUM 76,851 69,839 58,986 4,187,833 1,251,555
SOYBEANS 432,905 491,872 530,342 38,039,186 46,669,816
SUNFLOWER 312 0 0 4,421 2,408
WHEAT 551,278 516,835 277,402 15,921,298 17,526,921
Total 2,393,029 2,521,861 2,103,990 86,841,424 86,905,508
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

This Week Last Qeek Last Year Average
Cotton Planted 8 5 7 8
Soybeans Planted 3 3 1
Corn Planted 6 3 7 5
Sorghum Planted 14 13 14 16
Rice Planted 44 23 33 26
Rice Emerged 18 11 17 14
Peanuts Planted 1 1 1
Sugarbeets Planted 6 2 9 11
Oats Planted 43 34 34 35
Oats Emerged 30 20 26 25
Winter Wheat Headed 11 6 9 7
Spring Wheat Planted 7 3 2 6
Barley Planted 11 5 4 11

Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 4 9 32 47 8
Winter Wheat Last Week 4 8 32 48 8
Winter Wheat Last Year 18 21 34 24 3

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday in range trading. Trends remain mixed in all three markets. The problems with Russian Wheat exporters continue. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult on the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the world’s largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Russia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful, but Russia has been bombing Ukraine again and shipments might be hurt from that origin.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 539, 537, and 527 May, with resistance at 568, 575, and 580 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 571, 561, and 552 May, with resistance at 597, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 634, 625, and 618 May, and resistance is at 650, 655, and 660 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed sharply higher yesterday as the long liquidation by the funds is now complete. Futures were a little weaker at points during the week in reaction to the USDA supply and demand reports, but the rebound from the fund selling was more important. USDA cut domestic demand a lot but increased export demand for increased ending stocks levels. USDA also increased world ending stocks estimates for the year. Trends are up in this market on the daily charts. The market noted good planting and emergence progress in the weekly USDA reports released on Monday afternoon. Good demand for exports continues.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives of 1748 May. Support is at 1800, 1778, and 1725 May and resistance is at 1850, 1870, and 1907 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower and Oats closed higher yesterdAY as traders think that good Spring weather here will greatly increase planted Corn area. The USDA supply and demand reports showed reductions in Corn ending stocks in line with trade expectations but still over 20 billion bushels. Increased demand was noted in all domestic categories, but export demand was left unchanged. South American production estimates were little changed. It is very expensive to plant Corn and Corn is considered unprofitable to plant right now, so planted are might not increase that much if at all. USDA issued its crop progress report for Corn and Corn planting is proceeding slowly. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Funds remain very large shorts in the market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 426, 422, and 408 May, and resistance is at 437, 448, and 459 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 344, 339, and 334 May, and resistance is at 369, 362, and 369 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed lower and Soybean Meal closed higher last week in response to the USDA supply and demand estimates that showed a greater increase in US ending stocks than the market had anticipated. South American production estimates were little changed. Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been less. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain large shorts in the market. The US reports strong domestic demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1166, 1152, and 1140 May, and resistance is at 1181, 1193, and 1207 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 336.00, 330.00, and 325.00 May, and resistance is at 348.00, 352.00, and 35=7.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 4430 May. Support is at 4520, 4420, and 4360 May, with resistance at 4730, 4830, and 4980 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week in sympathy with the price action in Chicago and on demand concerns. It wqs lower today on ideas of demand weakness. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already, in part due to stronger world petroleum prices that have affected world vegetable oils prices as well. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. Trends are turning up on the daily charts. Canola was lower in response to the USDA reports that showed plenty of oilseeds viable in the US and the world and on price action in Chicago.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 617.00 and 596.00 May. Support is at 620.00, 616.00, and 610.00 May, with resistance at 637.00, 645.00, and 652.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4110, 4040, and 3920 July, with resistance at 4180, 4220, and 4300 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast <ostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 55 May 60 May
60 May
65 May

May 57 May 60 May 80 May 65 May

June 50 July 45 July 56 July 58 July

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 945.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
May 930.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 915.00 -07.50 unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 870.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 860.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 950.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
May 935.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 920.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 875.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 865.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 947.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 802.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,320.00 -140.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 331.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.793)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 96,351 lots, or 4.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,707 4,731 4,696 4,705 4,738 4,711 -27 58,257 64,895
Jul-24 4,754 4,754 4,712 4,717 4,757 4,723 -34 26,327 45,484
Sep-24 4,756 4,756 4,711 4,713 4,765 4,726 -39 10,836 30,375
Nov-24 4,689 4,693 4,660 4,661 4,703 4,672 -31 435 3,685
Jan-25 4,683 4,686 4,654 4,654 4,696 4,665 -31 427 4,341
Mar-25 4,675 4,675 4,644 4,644 4,682 4,653 -29 69 250
Corn
Turnover: 562,625 lots, or 13.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,392 2,396 2,376 2,382 2,396 2,386 -10 303,805 488,036
Jul-24 2,430 2,432 2,409 2,415 2,433 2,419 -14 155,728 527,297
Sep-24 2,457 2,458 2,438 2,443 2,460 2,447 -13 84,851 311,674
Nov-24 2,421 2,422 2,401 2,405 2,425 2,409 -16 4,664 40,005
Jan-25 2,407 2,407 2,390 2,393 2,407 2,396 -11 13,322 50,578
Mar-25 2,406 2,409 2,396 2,399 2,412 2,402 -10 255 900
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,029,898 lots, or 68.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,262 3,324 3,248 3,297 3,260 3,285 25 214,396 319,895
Jul-24 3,283 3,339 3,265 3,314 3,282 3,303 21 60,008 139,525
Aug-24 3,354 3,413 3,334 3,384 3,351 3,371 20 9,158 55,103
Sep-24 3,356 3,419 3,336 3,385 3,355 3,377 22 1,663,515 2,035,388
Nov-24 3,344 3,401 3,323 3,373 3,339 3,366 27 6,433 36,248
Dec-24 3,363 3,417 3,345 3,396 3,359 3,393 34 735 7,941
Jan-25 3,333 3,390 3,317 3,364 3,330 3,355 25 72,388 293,460
Mar-25 3,236 3,288 3,226 3,269 3,239 3,261 22 3,265 5,644
Palm Oil
Turnover: 931,619 lots, or 71.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-24 9,100 9,100 9,100 9,100 8,506 8,418 -88 1 0
May-24 8,050 8,140 8,034 8,054 8,200 8,086 -114 104,121 108,887
Jun-24 7,930 7,952 7,856 7,872 8,024 7,900 -124 8,080 10,095
Jul-24 7,808 7,814 7,720 7,732 7,890 7,770 -120 3,681 7,574
Aug-24 7,740 7,740 7,652 7,670 7,868 7,702 -166 864 898
Sep-24 7,662 7,688 7,588 7,606 7,808 7,644 -164 786,233 493,148
Oct-24 7,632 7,642 7,548 7,564 7,752 7,596 -156 533 496
Nov-24 7,588 7,594 7,500 7,510 7,730 7,540 -190 253 695
Dec-24 7,552 7,558 7,470 7,486 7,704 7,512 -192 138 444
Jan-25 7,526 7,526 7,426 7,448 7,602 7,462 -140 27,302 48,968
Feb-25 7,456 7,462 7,414 7,426 7,632 7,432 -200 44 124
Mar-25 7,470 7,474 7,406 7,416 7,586 7,432 -154 369 789
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 642,936 lots, or 48.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,632 7,646 7,588 7,592 7,688 7,612 -76 84,129 94,986
Jul-24 7,628 7,628 7,526 7,528 7,656 7,568 -88 5,983 21,881
Aug-24 7,650 7,650 7,540 7,548 7,716 7,578 -138 2,004 15,713
Sep-24 7,650 7,658 7,560 7,570 7,704 7,598 -106 517,668 705,605
Nov-24 7,660 7,660 7,568 7,580 7,712 7,606 -106 1,165 7,715
Dec-24 7,700 7,700 7,626 7,634 7,746 7,664 -82 171 1,712
Jan-25 7,682 7,682 7,588 7,600 7,708 7,622 -86 31,426 86,135
Mar-25 7,618 7,620 7,558 7,564 7,706 7,582 -124 390 801
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322