AgMaster Report 04/10/2024

JULY CORN

As is evident from the above chart, May Corn has been confined to a 30 cent range (420-450) since Mar 1! The friendly news such as the 3-28-24 Stocks/Seeding Report with an acres estimate 4.6 million acres less than 2023 & positive weekly export inspections & sales push the mkt up towards the top end & negative news such as planting pressure & rains for the dry areas pressure the mkt down to the 420 support! This week is another with sparse fresh news – as the mkt anticipates the onset of active planting after mid-April & the USDA April WASDE REPORT due out at 11am on Thur 4-11-24! Until then, the mkt will continue to chop around as traders “even up” in front of the report!

 

JULY BEANS       

July Beans – much like its sister mkt July Corn – is range-bound (1185-1230) amid lackluster trade – as the mkt awaits updates from the USDA & CONAD on Thursday morning! Planting weather has been benign but some areas have been subject to flooding! Most producers seed corn first – with the wheels expected to roll in the 2^nd half of April! Export interest has been meager but has been offset by strong domestic biodiesel demand! The fund short position is still sizeable – & the mkt is nearly $3.00 off its 2023 highs – so there is little margin for error for the US crops this Summer & Fall! South American production continues to ratchet down!

 

JULY WHT

July Wht has been slowly grinding higher since early Mar – occasionally buoyed by geopolitical issues from the escalating Russian-Ukraine War & dryness in the US Southwest plains! However, sluggish exports running 11% under 2023 & a 56% Gd-Ex crop rating has kept the wraps on recent rallies! Spring Wht planting is 3% in! Just like corn & beans, wht anxiously awaits the USDA’s April WASDE on Thur at 11am!

 

JUNE CAT

June Cattle topped out in late March – breaking $14 (186-172) due to a convergence of negatives including higher weights & slaughters, demand drying up in response to elevated prices, a bearish March Cattle-on-Feed Report – reflecting 10% more placements & finally the occurrence of Bird Flu in some dairy cattle prompting demand fears! As often happens, the break was overdone – especially as the Bird Flu news waned & the mkt recovered $5 of the plummet! The onset of the “grilling season” – the meats best demand period – will help stabilize June Cattle & cause them to consolidate well off their recent lows!

 

JUNE HOGS

June Hogs unabashedly took over the “upside leadership role” in the meats by staging a remarkable, meteoric $9 rally (100-109) since Mar 1 – including 7 consecutive higher closes! The move was spawned by several positives – a bullishly construed Pig Crop Report on Mar 28 where Farrowing Intentions implied lower supplies, a bird flu epidemic which transferred some demand from suspect beef to much cheaper pork & finally the advent of the best demand season of the year – when everyone pulls out their grills! However, the mkt has rallied into “overbought territory” -accumulating a big premium to cash – & is due for a correction soon!

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337