Grains Report 04/02/2024

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Apr 1
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Apr 1, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAR 28, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 03/28/2024 03/21/2024 03/30/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 1,936 2,154
CORN 1,431,535 1,255,165 1,098,461 25,867,120 19,369,543
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 24 200
MIXED 0 0 0 73 0
OATS 0 0 0 3,994 6,486
RYE 0 0 0 72 0
SORGHUM 211,204 6,025 9,920 4,041,021 1,101,938
SOYBEANS 414,484 785,116 503,900 36,981,053 45,460,554
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 4,109 2,408
WHEAT 498,989 432,764 168,543 14,783,027 16,859,475
Total 2,556,212 2,479,070 1,780,824 81,682,429 82,802,758
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

This Week Last Qeek Last Year Average
Cotton Planted 3 3 4
Corn Planted 2 2 1
Sorghum Planted 11 12 11
Rice Planted 12 15 12
Rice Emerged 7 9 5
Sugarbeets Planted 1 0 1
Oats Planted 30 24 24
Oats Emerged 25 23 22
Winter Wheat Headed 4 5 2
Spring Wheat Planted 1 0 1
Barley Planted 2 0 2

Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week 4 7 33 49 7
Winter Wheat Last Week
Winter Wheat Last Year 16 20 36 25 3

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday in anticipation of much improved crop condition ratings in the USDA reports that were released yesterday afternoon. There was also news that some shipments of Wheat sold by RiF were released by the Russian government. The USDA reports released Friday were considered friendly for Wheat prices, but futures closed mostly lower anyway and were led lower by Minneapolis. USDA said that All Wheat plantings would be about 47.5 million acres, with the big reductions seen in Winter Wheat. In contrast, Spring Wheat plantings were above the trade guesses at 11.335 million acres. Inventories were just above the average trade guess and 1.083 billion bushels. The problems with Russian Wheat exporter RiF continue. The dispute has held up shipments of at least 400,000 tons of grain so far although a few shipments were released by the government over the weekend. The reports indicate that the government is seeking more control of the exports and has made life very difficult for the private exporters in an effort to extract more sales and powers to the government. Russia is the world’s largest exporter and sets the world price and prices remain low. Big world supplies and low world prices are still around. Export sales remain weak on competition from Rusia, Ukraine, and the EU as those countries look to export a lot of Wheat in the coming period. Black Sea offers are still plentiful.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get Scattered showers. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see scattered showers. Temperatures will average below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers. Temperatures should average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 539, 537, and 527 May, with resistance at 568, 572, and 580 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 572, 567, and 564 May, with resistance at 594, 602, and 605 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 620 and 597 May. Support is at 629, 622, and 616 May, and resistance is at 647, 660, and 669 May.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday and at new lows for the move. Trends are down in this market. Good demand for exports continues. The overseas markets feature less production in Brazil and India, and it appears that the lack of offer from these markets is supporting increased demand for US Rice and prices here in the US. It turned wetter and colder in the US last week and fieldwork will be much reduced.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1624, 1612, and 1600 May and resistance is at 1678, 1744, and 1751 May.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday. USDA issued its first crop progress report for Corn yesterday. The USDA reports released on Friday showed inventories and planting ideas below trade expectations. USDA said that plantings should be just 90 million acres and that inventories are estimated at 8.347 billion bushels. The plantings intentions report was especially bullish for Corn prices. Demand for Corn has been strong at lower prices. Big supplies and reports of limited demand are still around, but futures have been very oversold. Futures are much lower than just a few months ago and a short covering rally is increasingly expected and might start next week. Funds remain very large shorts in the market. Basis levels have firmed a little bit in the US as processors look for supplies amid tight farmer holding patterns. The weather forecasts for Argentina are improving with drier weather expected this week after some big rains last week. More rain is forecast for central and northern Brazil, but dry weather is forecast for southern Brazil The planting progress reports to date indicate rapid progress and reports from Brazil indicate that the Winter crop has been mostly planted now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 432, 426, and 422 May, and resistance is at 448, 459, and 463 May. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 353, 349, and 344 May, and resistance is at 362, 369, and 374 May.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower yesterday in reaction to the USDA reports that showed slightly higher quarterly stocks and planting intentions when compared to expectations and on ideas of increased farm selling. USDA said that the stocks were 1.845 billion bushels and that farmers would plant 86.5 million acres of Soybeans. Brazil producers had been taking advantage on higher futures in the US and higher basis levels in Brazil, but the basis has fallen sharply in Brazil this week and sales have been less. Reports of great export demand in Brazil provide some support. Reports indicate that China has been a very active buyer of Brazil Soybeans this season. Ideas that South American production is taking demand from the US have pressured futures lower. Funds remain large shorts in the market. Basis levels in the US are reported to be firming as processors look for supplies and farmers remain tight holders.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1181, 1175, and 1165 May, and resistance is at 1217, 1227, and 1233 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 326.00, 320.00, and 317.00 May, and resistance is at 340.00, 348.00, and 352.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4820, 4730, and 4690 May, with resistance at 4910, 4980, and 5000 May.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on ideas of increasing world supplies of vegetable oils. Prices moved higher today on strong export data for the month from private sources. The export pace is expected to continue to really improve but this is part of the price already. The Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association expects Malaysia’s palm oil production for March 1-20 to have risen 22%. Domestic biofuels demand is likely to improve. Ideas of weaker production ideas against good demand still support the market overall. The fundamentals of average demand against a weaker supply outlook are still around to keep prices supported. Trends are turning down on the daily charts. Canola was higher yesterday. There were reports of big rains in Argentina, but forecasts for drier conditions now and improving weather in Brazil. Current forecasts call for generally improved growing conditions in Brazil this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 617.00 and 596.00 May. Support is at 616.00, 610.00, and 602.00 May, with resistance at 652.00, 657.00, and 660.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4070 and 3920 June. Support is at 4200, 4130, and 40\50 May, with resistance at 4280, 4310, and 4330 May.

Midwest Weather Forecast Showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
March 54 Mar 165 Mar
95 Mar
78 Mar

April 58 May 185 May 80 May 68 May

May 59 May 165 May 80 May 68 May

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 992.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 957.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 947.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
July/Aug/Sep 900.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 880.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 997.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
May 962.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jun 952.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 905.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 885.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 985.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 815.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 4,470.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 336.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.7535)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 89,510 lots, or 4.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 4,770 4,789 4,744 4,775 4,755 4,770 15 68,743 98,468
Jul-24 4,779 4,794 4,752 4,785 4,762 4,777 15 10,688 29,091
Sep-24 4,759 4,776 4,732 4,763 4,741 4,756 15 9,488 20,899
Nov-24 4,701 4,712 4,681 4,698 4,686 4,699 13 262 3,048
Jan-25 4,677 4,684 4,654 4,669 4,660 4,671 11 252 3,560
Mar-25 4,654 4,660 4,637 4,642 4,639 4,644 5 77 146
Corn
Turnover: 526,756 lots, or 12.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 2,426 2,440 2,418 2,433 2,416 2,428 12 371,726 689,731
Jul-24 2,455 2,466 2,447 2,460 2,441 2,455 14 86,760 378,703
Sep-24 2,465 2,472 2,455 2,465 2,446 2,463 17 48,817 249,256
Nov-24 2,409 2,421 2,408 2,415 2,398 2,415 17 4,690 34,899
Jan-25 2,399 2,402 2,391 2,395 2,388 2,395 7 14,639 42,545
Mar-25 2,401 2,402 2,392 2,397 2,389 2,396 7 124 605
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,913,126 lots, or 63.15 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 3,270 3,284 3,224 3,232 3,260 3,254 -6 674,118 847,136
Jul-24 3,265 3,289 3,232 3,243 3,264 3,257 -7 47,879 102,046
Aug-24 3,349 3,364 3,312 3,323 3,339 3,344 5 5,548 34,774
Sep-24 3,345 3,357 3,306 3,317 3,331 3,331 0 1,111,195 1,612,256
Nov-24 3,321 3,336 3,285 3,295 3,314 3,316 2 8,641 34,372
Dec-24 3,324 3,336 3,295 3,305 3,320 3,322 2 1,902 8,513
Jan-25 3,290 3,301 3,261 3,269 3,290 3,287 -3 62,626 269,420
Mar-25 3,208 3,217 3,188 3,191 3,208 3,201 -7 1,217 5,398
Palm Oil
Turnover: 878,568 lots, or 71.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-24 8,400 8,400 8,130 8,318 8,390 8,320 -70 6 1,649
May-24 8,328 8,356 8,242 8,286 8,240 8,300 60 657,702 388,724
Jun-24 8,082 8,112 8,018 8,050 8,008 8,072 64 5,017 4,983
Jul-24 7,936 7,958 7,872 7,912 7,872 7,918 46 1,031 3,947
Aug-24 7,840 7,858 7,780 7,828 7,768 7,820 52 460 822
Sep-24 7,740 7,764 7,684 7,726 7,676 7,724 48 201,376 279,474
Oct-24 7,648 7,660 7,600 7,646 7,568 7,642 74 148 330
Nov-24 7,592 7,610 7,540 7,592 7,506 7,576 70 245 468
Dec-24 7,538 7,574 7,498 7,558 7,484 7,542 58 124 341
Jan-25 7,458 7,542 7,458 7,524 7,446 7,500 54 11,168 31,047
Feb-25 7,502 7,570 7,492 7,562 7,438 7,530 92 144 316
Mar-25 7,534 7,656 7,514 7,646 7,456 7,588 132 1,147 1,321
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 555,430 lots, or 43.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-24 7,830 7,854 7,794 7,818 7,778 7,822 44 307,389 388,779
Jul-24 7,780 7,836 7,780 7,814 7,766 7,810 44 3,221 19,033
Aug-24 7,804 7,820 7,770 7,802 7,746 7,796 50 681 4,260
Sep-24 7,764 7,790 7,736 7,764 7,716 7,762 46 232,533 553,921
Nov-24 7,736 7,756 7,706 7,738 7,676 7,736 60 1,011 7,368
Dec-24 7,774 7,796 7,748 7,772 7,722 7,770 48 100 1,829
Jan-25 7,720 7,770 7,718 7,748 7,702 7,744 42 10,427 55,351
Mar-25 7,700 7,728 7,684 7,720 7,660 7,708 48 68 123
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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