About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep. 17, 2018 11 Sep 13, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep. 17, 2018 282 Sep 13, 2018
CORN September Sep. 17, 2018 41 Sep 13, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep. 17, 2018 7 Aug 31, 2018
SOYBEAN September Sep. 17, 2018 33 Sep 12, 2018
WHEAT September Sep. 17, 2018 2 Sep 05, 2018

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower again yesterday on follow through selling as USDA surprised the market and increased world production and ending stocks levels against trade ideas of reduced amounts. The funds were the best sellers. USDA surprised the trade by showing very strong world production estimates at a time when almost all exporters have sharply reduced production ideas. For example, European Union production was unchanged at 137.50 million tons against EU estimates closer to 131 million tons. Canadian production was cut by 1.0 million tons and Australian production was cut 2 million tons, but the market had expected bigger cuts. Russian and FSU-12 production were increased by 3.0 million tons and 3.5 million tons respectively at a time when the trade was looking for lower production. This made ending stocks projections above 261 million tons, from almost 259 million tons last month and trade expectations of about 257 million tons. The US Spring Wheat harvest is almost done. Ideas are that Spring Wheat production will be less than original expectations in Canada due to some hot and dry conditions in growing areas earlier in the Summer. The weather in the US is improved for planting the next Winter Wheat crop as much of the Great Plains has seen rains in the last couple of weeks.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see dry conditions today and tomorrow, then light to moderate precipitation. Temperatures should average below normal, with frosts expected in the west.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 494, 471, and 421 December. Support is at 496, 490, and 484 December, with resistance at 508, 514, and 518 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 502 December. Support is at 497, 493, and 490 December, with resistance at 512, 519, and 526 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 554, 540, and 528 December. Support is at 554, 542, and 536 December, and resistance is at 567, 572, and 584 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was firm yesterday despite average at best weekly export sales. The USDA reports were also considered a little bearish, but the market continues to hold. Production of All Rice was estimated at 219 million hundredweight, up from 210 million estimated last month. Ending stocks were increased to 231 million hundredweight, from 229 million in August. World data also held no real surprises. Ending stocks were increased to 144.4 million tons, from 143.5 million in August. Excellent yields are still being reported in southern areas as the harvest starts to wind down. The harvest is progressing farther to the north and field yields are called good. We have not heard any milling test results yet. Recent rains in Arkansas have been big, but do not appear heavy enough to damage quality yet, only delay the harvest a bit. There is talk that cash values can start to erode once commercial space is filed, and cash values have been reported weaker amid light demand in Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should see drier weather. Temperatures should be near normal. .
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1071, 1069, and 1062 November, with resistance at 1086, 1098, and 1100 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on follow through selling in response to the USDA reports. Funds were the best sellers USDA surprised the market on Wednesday when it increased production and ending stocks estimates. USDA increased yields to over 181 bushels per acre instead of a slight reduction as expected by the trade. That pushed production to 14.827 billion bushels, well above the highest trade guess. Ending stocks were increased to 1.774 billion bushels, a significant increase but less than implied by the big production. World ending stocks levels were also increased, mostly due to the bigger projections in the US. The trade is already questioning some of the yield projections made by USDA as the state comparisons show sharp increase in productivity in the eastern Corn Belt and increased productivity in the west. The trade will monitor reports from the field and will adjust their ideas according to that data and how it relates to the USDA projections. The market is keeping an eye on Hurricane Florence as it makes its way through the Carolinas. The amount that could be lost is not very much when compared to total US production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 347, 344, and 340 December, and resistance is at 355, 359, and 364 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 241, 239, and 237 December, and resistance is at 245, 246, and 249 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower. USDA estimated Soybeans production and ending stocks levels in the US within trade expectations at 4.693 billion bushels and 845 million bushels. USDA increased domestic and export demand for the year that is just concluding and increased domestic demand for the new crop year. Even so, 845 million bushels means that there will be a lot of Soybeans in the US and that means upside movement in prices should be limited. The Trump administration on Wednesday reached out to China and offered to start talks again, this time in China. President Trump had previously announced that new tariffs are coming in the very near future and that the new tariffs could total about $200 million. He said he is prepared to bring another round of punitive tariffs against the Chinese that would cover another $267 billion in the near future. Domestic cash markets are called extremely weak with very bad basis levels in anticipation of the big harvest. Many traders think that the national yield potential is even higher than recent estimates given the good finishing weather. The crop is starting to turn color in many areas, so additional yield growth might not be coming. The market is also watching the path of Hurricane Florence as it makes its way through the Carolinas. Crops from Georgia to Virginia are threatened and most of these crops are not yet mature enough to be harvested.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 826, 821, and 819 November, and resistance is at 846, 849, and 851 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 310.00, 304.00, and 300.00 October, and resistance is at 320.00, 324.00, and 326.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2670 and 2530 October. Support is at 2740, 2710, and 2680 October, with resistance at 2810, 2840, and 2870 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on speculative selling and as the Canola harvest got more active. A stronger Canadian Dollar was bearish for Canola. The USDA data showed that plenty of oilseeds will be available to the world market, and Canola seems high-priced. The Canola harvest is showing the potential for crops to be bigger than the recent StatsCan estimates, but too much rain in the north is keeping farmers out of the fields. Yields in the south have been lower so far than in the north. Palm Oil was lower as futures responded to outside market weakness seen earlier this week. The MPOB reports were bearish, but demand news for this month is much improved. Futures are back testing into an important support area on the charts.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 490.00 and 485.00 November. Support is at 490.00, 487.00, and 485.00 November, with resistance at 495.00, 499.00, and 501.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2210, 2190, and 2170 November, with resistance at 2260, 2280, and 2310 November.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Sep 14
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended Sep. 9, 2018. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This week 2826.4 813.1 262.8 357.1 45.6 888.1 458.7 241.3 6393.2
Week ago 2646.1 772.2 257.4 336.3 44.3 712.6 464.6 227.9 5918.7
Year ago 3122.7 686.8 238.5 270.4 62.5 1176.0 575.9 58.3 6481.6
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 548.5 95.1 57.2 71.4 3.4 471.1 89.2 19.7 1435.4
Week Ago 455.9 95.6 45.7 98.1 2.4 329.0 108.8 11.8 1200.2
To Date 2593.9 446.5 319.9 371.6 19.1 1585.2 622.6 99.3 6377.4
Year Ago 2138.8 393.6 363.3 269.7 23.7 1732.0 934.5 44.7 6131.6
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 523.5 46.2 10.8 29.0 0.0 96.8 104.6 21.1 872.8
Week Ago 498.2 61.0 14.3 15.1 2.3 65.3 92.1 3.4 779.8
To Date 2874.7 442.6 77.6 91.8 20.7 640.6 276.3 103.5 4754.5
Year Ago 2393.5 600.6 14.4 128.9 16.3 665.1 409.2 39.6 4378.6
EXPORTS
This Week 440.1 39.0 43.6 3.2 0.7 75.1 109.4 19.2 826.0
Week Ago 435.9 40.2 36.8 19.5 9.3 61.0 35.7 39.2 753.6
To Date 2120.1 314.1 190.5 86.7 39.3 660.9 179.5 183.2 4036.4
Year Ago 1873.3 525.8 169.1 184.6 32.6 662.8 260.9 63.3 3877.7
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 85.6 1.0 4.6 23.2 0.9 140.6 3.7 22.7 306.8
Week Ago 45.1 2.4 5.5 22.3 0.7 157.5 9.5 30.1 290.9
To Date 442.7 41.4 33.6 130.8 4.4 930.1 17.7 143.8 1881.3
Year Ago 583.4 137.8 29.6 139.6 5.2 719.4 25.2 64.9 1841.7
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : Aug
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Wednesday, 12 Sep
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.65 mil tonnes, Up 9.9%
Exports – 1.23 mil tonnes, Up 2.3%
Ending Stocks – 2.41 mil tonnes, Up 9.0%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.50 mil tonnes, Up 12.8%
Exports – 1.21 mil tonnes, Up 6.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.21 mil tonnes, Up 1.3%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 143 December 30 December 12 November 14 October
October 40 December 45 December Minus 5 Nov
November 46 December 55 December 13 November
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
September
October 250 November 9 October 77 December
November 12 December 88 December

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 13
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 465.70 dn 1.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 499.90 dn 1.80
2 Can 486.90 dn 1.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 514.90 dn 1.80
2 Can 501.90 dn 1.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 562.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 562.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 570.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 590.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Sep 565.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 565.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 572.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 592.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 545.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 482.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,220 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 223 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1370)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 151,836 lots, or 5.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 – – – 3,595 3,572 3,595 23 0 0
Nov-18 3,631 3,664 3,590 3,649 3,681 3,638 -43 32 140
Jan-19 3,688 3,712 3,686 3,706 3,715 3,698 -17 144,880 246,578
Mar-19 3,636 3,636 3,636 3,636 3,673 3,636 -37 2 60
May-19 3,803 3,824 3,801 3,822 3,837 3,813 -24 6,828 20,926
Jul-19 – – – 3,797 3,797 3,797 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,911 3,911 3,872 3,887 3,899 3,887 -12 74 762
Nov-19 – – – 3,822 3,833 3,822 -11 0 12
Jan-20 3,878 3,912 3,878 3,912 3,918 3,900 -18 20 64
Corn
Turnover: 396,780 lots, or 7.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 – – – 1,846 1,839 1,846 7 0 0
Nov-18 1,854 1,856 1,846 1,848 1,857 1,852 -5 7,132 35,098
Jan-19 1,883 1,885 1,877 1,880 1,888 1,880 -8 296,628 857,270
Mar-19 1,919 1,923 1,916 1,917 1,925 1,919 -6 922 7,854
May-19 1,990 1,995 1,983 1,985 1,987 1,987 0 90,442 467,438
Jul-19 2,018 2,023 2,009 2,015 2,014 2,014 0 1,656 14,962
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,585,950 lots, or 48.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 3,330 3,338 3,230 3,338 3,286 3,274 -12 52 0
Nov-18 3,252 3,291 3,252 3,282 3,306 3,282 -24 81,244 161,772
Dec-18 3,180 3,231 3,180 3,224 3,206 3,216 10 16 752
Jan-19 3,107 3,136 3,099 3,120 3,123 3,120 -3 1,263,198 2,253,972
Mar-19 2,948 2,965 2,947 2,961 2,949 2,957 8 622 5,168
May-19 2,745 2,766 2,740 2,760 2,745 2,750 5 239,170 1,021,910
Jul-19 2,726 2,751 2,724 2,750 2,728 2,736 8 1,644 9,426
Aug-19 2,786 2,786 2,786 2,786 2,785 2,786 1 4 212
Palm Oil
Turnover: 317,250 lots, or 15.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 4,882 4,882 4,764 4,790 4,732 4,694 -38 432 0
Oct-18 – – – 4,850 4,888 4,850 -38 0 8
Nov-18 – – – 4,880 4,880 4,880 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 4,986 4,986 4,986 0 0 34
Jan-19 4,872 4,890 4,832 4,858 4,892 4,864 -28 299,384 526,808
Feb-19 – – – 4,902 4,930 4,902 -28 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 4,940 4,968 4,940 -28 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 5,090 5,118 5,090 -28 0 18
May-19 5,034 5,046 4,992 5,016 5,046 5,024 -22 17,434 79,406
Jun-19 – – – 5,076 5,098 5,076 -22 0 58
Jul-19 – – – 5,038 5,060 5,038 -22 0 36
Aug-19 – – – 5,050 5,072 5,050 -22 0 12
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 390,320 lots, or 22.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 5,800 5,800 5,800 5,800 5,752 5,756 4 4 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,902 5,898 5,902 4 0 22
Dec-18 – – – 5,954 5,950 5,954 4 0 16
Jan-19 5,838 5,866 5,830 5,836 5,856 5,846 -10 322,484 889,898
Mar-19 – – – 5,950 5,978 5,950 -28 0 116
May-19 5,812 5,834 5,784 5,794 5,820 5,810 -10 67,832 291,580
Jul-19 – – – 5,896 5,896 5,896 0 0 42
Aug-19 – – – 5,848 5,848 5,848 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322