About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Wednesday.
U.S. 2018 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA August USDA 2017
Corn Production 14,506 14,397-14,607 14,586 14,604
Soybean Production 4,659 4,528-4,781 4,586 4,392
Corn Yield 177.4 176.0-178.6 178.4 176.6
Soybean Yield 52.5 51.0-53.8 51.6 49.1
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
Advanced Market 14,555 178.0 4,656 52.4
AgriSource 14,586 178.4 4,665 52.5
Agrivisor 14,465 176.9 4,621 52.0
Allendale 14,529 177.7 4,636 52.2
DC Analysis 14,543 177.9 4,664 52.5
Doane 14,501 177.3 4,683 53.0
Farm Futures 14,456 176.5 4,528 51.0
Hueber Report 14,607 178.6 4,569 51.4
INTL FCStone 14,531 177.7 4,781 53.8
Sid Love Consulting 14,397 176.0 4,641 52.5
Northstar 14,507 178.0 4,676 52.6
Price Futures 14,430 176.5 4,665 52.5
Prime Ag 14,586 178.4 4,667 52.5
RJOBrien 14,477 177.0 4,618 52.0
RMC 14,511 177.4 4,756 53.5
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing 14,504 177.4 4,675 52.6
US Commodities 14,473 177.0 4,710 53.0
Vantage RM 14,560 178.0 4,667 52.5
Western Milling 14,397 176.0 4,641 52.2

DJ U.S. September Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Wednesday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2017-18
Average Range USDA August
Corn 2,014 1,953-2,079 2,027
Soybeans 418 397-435 430
2018-19
Average Range USDA August
Corn 1,590 1,210-1,737 1,684
Soybeans 836 722-1,000 785
Wheat 938 828-1,001 935
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,042 420 1,675 820 950
AgriSource 2,030 430 1,684 915 930
Agrivisor 2,002 420 1,567 781 935
Allendale 2,047 410 1,689 790 999
DC Analysis 1,995 397 1,583 811 828
Doane 1,972 405 1,600 785 930
Farm Futures 2,079 415 1,668 722 993
Hueber Report 2,025 430 1,631 770 935
INTL FCStone 2,005 407 1,737 906 983
Sid Love Consulting 2,027 430 1,494 796 915
Northstar 2,020 420 1,620 880 900
Price Futures 1,997 400 1,477 835 935
Prime-Ag 2,030 430 1,684 915 930
RJOBrien 1,977 397 1,579 800 959
RMC 2,029 430 1,619 1,000 935
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing 1,977 405 1,527 849 925
US Commodities 2,027 425 1,495 875 910
Vantage RM 2,027 430 1,664 846 925
Western Milling 1,953 435 1,210 791 1,001

DJ September World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Wednesday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18
Average Range USDA August
Corn 192.3 191.0-193.8 193.3
Soybeans 95.2 94.0-96.0 95.6
Wheat 272.7 270.0-274.0 273.1
2018-19
Average Range USDA August
Corn 154.4 152.0-159.0 155.5
Soybeans 107.5 105.0-111.1 105.9
Wheat 257.2 252.0-261.0 259.0
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 193.0 95.5 N/A 155.0 107.5 256.0
Agrivisor 193.0 95.5 273.0 152.5 105.5 258.0
Allendale 193.8 95.0 272.9 155.9 106.9 260.0
Doane 192.0 95.0 273.1 152.5 110.0 255.0
Farm Futures 191.0 94.0 274.0 159.0 107.0 261.0
Hueber Report 191.5 94.5 272.5 153.0 106.0 255.0
INTL FCStone 191.2 95.2 273.3 154.1 111.1 259.7
Northstar 191.0 95.0 273.1 153.5 108.9 257.0
Prime-Ag 193.0 96.0 273.0 156.0 107.0 252.0
RMC 193.3 95.9 273.1 155.3 106.4 258.8
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing 193.0 96.0 270.0 154.0 107.0 257.0
US Commodities 193.0 95.5 273.0 154.0 109.0 257.0
Western Milling 191.0 95.0 271.0 152.0 105.0 257.0

Crop Progress
Date 9-Sep 2-Sep 2017 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 39 29 33 25
Cotton Harvested 10 8 5
Corn Dented 86 75 73 75
Corn Mature 35 22 20 21
Corn Harvested 5 5 3
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 31 16 20 19
Sugar beets Harvested 5 6 5
Sorghum Coloring 79 69 72 74
Sorghum Mature 34 30 34 38
Sorghum Harvested 24 22 24 26
Peanuts Harvested 1 3 3
Rice Harvested 40 31 41 36
Oats Harvested 96 94 95 96
Spring Wheat Harvested 93 87 94 85
Barley Harvested 92 84 95 92
Winter Wheat Planted 5 5 5

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Cotton This Week 13 21 28 29 9
Cotton Last Week 15 18 26 31 10
Cotton Last Year 4 7 26 46 17

Corn This Week 4 8 20 47 21
Corn Last Week 4 8 21 46 21
Corn Last Year 4 9 26 48 13

Soybeans This Week 3 7 22 50 18
Soybeans Last Week 3 8 23 49 17
Soybeans Last Year 3 9 28 49 11

Sorghum This Week 5 12 30 42 11
Sorghum Last Week 5 12 31 43 9
Sorghum Last Year 2 5 27 55 11

Rice This Week 0 3 22 59 16
Rice Last Week 0 3 22 59 16
Rice Last Year 1 6 22 53 18

Peanuts This Week 1 4 23 56 16
Peanuts Last Week 1 3 21 57 18
Peanuts Last Year 1 5 17 56 21

Pastures and Ranges This Week 9 17 31 36 7
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 10 18 30 36 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 8 14 31 39 8

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 12
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep. 13, 2018 119 Sep 05, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep. 13, 2018 280 Sep 11, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep. 13, 2018 7 Aug 31, 2018
SOYBEAN September Sep. 13, 2018 301 Sep 11, 2018

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower yesterday and gave back some of the gains seen on Monday from reduced world production ideas. The funds were the best sellers. There was still talk that Russia is finally starting to worry about its Wheat and all grains supplies and could move to regulate or tax exports in the near future. Russia is still open for business and there are no signs that the push to move Wheat from the country is about to slow down. There is still more Russian Wheat to move into the world market, and Egypt is buying most of it. Russia had a short crop this year and there has been talk of export restrictions, but so far there are non imposed. Crops in Europe also remain in bad shape from a drought this year. In Australia, ABARES noted that the weather had damaged the Wheat production prospects there and cut it estimate to just over 19 million tons, a reduction of 13% from its June estimate. Much of Australia have also seen drought, and world stocks levels are forecast to be as tight as they have been in years. The US Spring Wheat harvest will be dine in the next week or so. Ideas are that Spring Wheat production will be less than original expectations in Canada due to some hot and dry conditions in growing areas earlier in the Summer. The weather in the US is improved for planting the next Winter Wheat crop as much of the Great Plains has seen rains in the last couple of weeks.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 500, 494, and 471 December. Support is at 514, 508, and 507 December, with resistance at 530, 533, and 535 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 502 December. Support is at 519, 511, and 497 December, with resistance at 537, 542, and 558 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 554, 540, and 528 December. Support is at 572, 567, and 565 December, and resistance is at 582, 584, and 586 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower on speculative selling as the trade expects strong production estimates from USDA. A good crop is expected, but good demand is also expected. Excellent yields are still being reported in southern areas as the harvest starts to wind down. The harvest is progressing farther to the north and field yields are called good. We have not Heard any milling test results yet. Recent rains in Arkansas have been big, but do not appear heavy enough to damage quality yet, only delay the harvest a bit. Demand is still reported to be strong on the domestic and on the export fronts, although the export sales report last week featured routine sales into Mexico and Central America, but not much more. Cash prices are stable in the interior and have held well. There is talk that cash values can start to erode once commercial space is filed, and cash values have been reported weaker amid light demand in Texas.
Overnight News: The Delta should see drier weather. Temperatures should be near normal. .
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1119, 1132, and 1163 November. Support is at 1075, 1069, and 1062 November, with resistance at 1086, 1098, and 1100 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Sep 12
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 14.58 9.39 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.27 9.57 0.00
Brokens 8.79 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was slightly lower after a day of slow and range bound trading. Funds were the best sellers The production report is still to be released this morning, and the general expectation is for a big crop, but maybe a little less than what USDA saw last month. The market held as the weather has been less than perfect for finishing the crop and even though crop condition ratings remained very high. It has been very hot in much of the Midwest and some areas have seen flooding rains. Cooler weather is expected through this week, The recent heat seen recently is pushing the crop to maturity and might help to keep the crop from finishing as well as it might give the precipitation. It is cooler now, but warmer weather has pushed maturity ahead of normal by up to two weeks. The push to maturity could affect yield potential as the longer a crop has to develop the larger the grain can become. Initial yields from the southern Midwest indicate good crop potential, but it is extremely early in the harvest and too soon to develop any conclusions base don harvest reports. The market is keeping an eye on Hurricane Florence as it makes its way to the Carolinas. The amount that could be lost is not very much when compared to total US production.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 364, 361, and 359 December, and resistance is at 372, 376, and 378 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 249, 245, and 241 December, and resistance is at 256, 258, and 262 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on fund selling. The market is waiting for the USDA reports that will be released later this morning before making any big moves. The market is expecting a huge harvest after good August rains in many growing areas and as crop condition ratings have held strong. Some initial cutting has been done and the few reported yields have been big. However, it is too early to say that all crops will be like that as only a few Midwest areas have even though about cutting. Domestic cash markets are called extremely weak with very bad basis levels in anticipation of the big harvest. Many traders think that the national yield potential is even higher than recent estimates given the good finishing weather. The crop is starting to turn color in many areas, so additional yield growth might not be coming. The market is also watching the path of Hurricane Florence as it makes its way to the Carolinas. Crops from Georgia to Virginia are threatened and most of these crops are not yet mature enough to be harvested.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 820 and 797 November. Support is at 826, 820, and 814 November, and resistance is at 851, 866, and 884 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 310.00, 304.00, and 300.00 October, and resistance is at 320.00, 324.00, and 326.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2770, 2740, and 2710 October, with resistance at 2810, 2840, and 2870 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on speculative selling. The Canola harvest is moving ever closer to reality, but it has been in the northern Prairies. A freeze was seen in the region last week. No damage reports have been heard yet, but the market acts as if there was no real damage. Some early harvesting has been reported in some areas, but we have not heard any yield reports yet. Ideas are that Canola is too high-priced compared to Soybeans. The stronger Canadian Dollar kept demand ideas weaker, but overall demand appears to be solid right now. Palm Oil was lower as futures responded to outside market weakness seen earlier this week. The MPOB reports were bearish, but demand news for this month is much improved. Futures are back testing into an important support area on the charts.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 415,275 tons so far this month, from 287,501 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 490.00 and 485.00 November. Support is at 490.00, 487.00, and 485.00 November, with resistance at 499.00, 501.00, and 505.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2430 November. Support is at 2270, 2240, and 2210 November, with resistance at 2310, 2340, and 2360 November.

Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : Aug
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Wednesday, 12 Sep
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.65 mil tonnes, Up 9.9%
Exports – 1.23 mil tonnes, Up 2.3%
Ending Stocks – 2.41 mil tonnes, Up 9.0%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.50 mil tonnes, Up 12.8%
Exports – 1.21 mil tonnes, Up 6.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.21 mil tonnes, Up 1.3%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 38 December 143 December minus 10 Nov 13-Oct
October 40 December Minus 5 Nov
November 47 December 60 December 3-Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
September
October 255 November 11-Oct 77 December
November 14-Dec 88 December

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 11
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 470.70 up 1.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 503.60 dn 3.10
2 Can 490.60 dn 3.10
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 518.60 dn 3.10
2 Can 505.60 dn 3.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 12
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 565.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 567.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 575.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 595.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Sep 567.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 570.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 577.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 597.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 545.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 482.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,225 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 226 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1420)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 12
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 263,316 lots, or 9.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 3,632 3,637 3,610 3,637 3,668 3,625 -43 30 2,820
Nov-18 – – – 3,697 3,740 3,697 -43 0 154
Jan-19 3,771 3,782 3,736 3,758 3,801 3,762 -39 248,522 274,760
Mar-19 3,744 3,744 3,744 3,744 3,796 3,744 -52 2 56
May-19 3,872 3,898 3,853 3,869 3,917 3,876 -41 14,668 22,824
Jul-19 – – – 3,846 3,846 3,846 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,933 3,953 3,920 3,920 3,964 3,937 -27 54 682
Nov-19 3,958 3,958 3,898 3,911 3,922 3,922 0 6 12
Jan-20 3,956 3,967 3,948 3,956 3,962 3,956 -6 34 52
Corn
Turnover: 773,008 lots, or 14.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 1,853 1,853 1,825 1,825 1,832 1,839 7 4 3,624
Nov-18 1,885 1,885 1,874 1,875 1,886 1,877 -9 12,046 41,696
Jan-19 1,920 1,921 1,902 1,904 1,919 1,908 -11 577,552 1,008,680
Mar-19 1,956 1,956 1,942 1,943 1,956 1,945 -11 2,834 5,456
May-19 2,005 2,013 2,002 2,004 2,006 2,006 0 174,366 465,488
Jul-19 2,048 2,050 2,039 2,040 2,046 2,043 -3 6,206 24,002
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,171,084 lots, or 67.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 – – – 3,340 3,340 3,340 0 0 3,608
Nov-18 3,341 3,370 3,333 3,346 3,345 3,350 5 142,148 184,656
Dec-18 3,280 3,314 3,260 3,260 3,251 3,280 29 216 838
Jan-19 3,182 3,203 3,170 3,183 3,180 3,185 5 1,646,158 2,416,328
Mar-19 3,004 3,013 2,983 2,992 3,006 3,000 -6 1,488 5,630
May-19 2,792 2,800 2,750 2,756 2,796 2,770 -26 378,522 1,044,198
Jul-19 2,766 2,773 2,731 2,735 2,771 2,747 -24 2,534 10,082
Aug-19 2,794 2,798 2,786 2,798 2,816 2,789 -27 18 214
Palm Oil
Turnover: 446,444 lots, or 21.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 4,700 4,700 4,600 4,600 4,696 4,688 -8 180 5,670
Oct-18 – – – 4,844 4,852 4,844 -8 0 8
Nov-18 – – – 4,836 4,844 4,836 -8 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 4,986 4,986 4,986 0 0 34
Jan-19 4,922 4,936 4,876 4,882 4,918 4,906 -12 427,224 514,720
Feb-19 – – – 4,930 4,930 4,930 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 4,982 4,982 4,982 0 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 5,118 5,118 5,118 0 0 18
May-19 5,068 5,090 5,038 5,040 5,072 5,064 -8 19,040 79,088
Jun-19 – – – 5,098 5,098 5,098 0 0 58
Jul-19 – – – 5,134 5,142 5,134 -8 0 36
Aug-19 – – – 5,146 5,146 5,146 0 0 12
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 583,936 lots, or 34.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 5,740 5,780 5,732 5,740 5,790 5,754 -36 102 3,394
Nov-18 5,900 5,900 5,900 5,900 5,840 5,900 60 4 22
Dec-18 – – – 5,950 5,950 5,950 0 0 16
Jan-19 5,896 5,932 5,882 5,892 5,904 5,906 2 519,184 904,660
Mar-19 – – – 5,978 5,978 5,978 0 0 116
May-19 5,858 5,880 5,830 5,840 5,860 5,856 -4 64,646 274,626
Jul-19 – – – 5,916 5,928 5,916 -12 0 40
Aug-19 – – – 5,848 5,848 5,848 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322