About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Alerts History
• 10-Sep-2018 03:02:56 PM – USDA SAYS SEPT 10 CROP PROGRESS REPORT DELAYED FOR TECHNICAL ISSUES UNTIL 1200 EDT (1600 GMT) ON SEPT 11
USDA SAYS SEPT 10 CROP PROGRESS REPORT DELAYED FOR TECHNICAL ISSUES UNTIL 1200 EDT (1600 GMT) ON SEPT 11 – Reuters News

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Wednesday.
U.S. 2018 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA August USDA 2017
Corn Production 14,506 14,397-14,607 14,586 14,604
Soybean Production 4,659 4,528-4,781 4,586 4,392
Corn Yield 177.4 176.0-178.6 178.4 176.6
Soybean Yield 52.5 51.0-53.8 51.6 49.1
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
Advanced Market 14,555 178.0 4,656 52.4
AgriSource 14,586 178.4 4,665 52.5
Agrivisor 14,465 176.9 4,621 52.0
Allendale 14,529 177.7 4,636 52.2
DC Analysis 14,543 177.9 4,664 52.5
Doane 14,501 177.3 4,683 53.0
Farm Futures 14,456 176.5 4,528 51.0
Hueber Report 14,607 178.6 4,569 51.4
INTL FCStone 14,531 177.7 4,781 53.8
Sid Love Consulting 14,397 176.0 4,641 52.5
Northstar 14,507 178.0 4,676 52.6
Price Futures 14,430 176.5 4,665 52.5
Prime Ag 14,586 178.4 4,667 52.5
RJOBrien 14,477 177.0 4,618 52.0
RMC 14,511 177.4 4,756 53.5
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing 14,504 177.4 4,675 52.6
US Commodities 14,473 177.0 4,710 53.0
Vantage RM 14,560 178.0 4,667 52.5
Western Milling 14,397 176.0 4,641 52.2

DJ U.S. September Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Wednesday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2017-18
Average Range USDA August
Corn 2,014 1,953-2,079 2,027
Soybeans 418 397-435 430
2018-19
Average Range USDA August
Corn 1,590 1,210-1,737 1,684
Soybeans 836 722-1,000 785 Wheat 938 828-1,001 935
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,042 420 1,675 820 950
AgriSource 2,030 430 1,684 915 930
Agrivisor 2,002 420 1,567 781 935
Allendale 2,047 410 1,689 790 999
DC Analysis 1,995 397 1,583 811 828
Doane 1,972 405 1,600 785 930
Farm Futures 2,079 415 1,668 722 993
Hueber Report 2,025 430 1,631 770 935
INTL FCStone 2,005 407 1,737 906 983
Sid Love Consulting 2,027 430 1,494 796 915
Northstar 2,020 420 1,620 880 900
Price Futures 1,997 400 1,477 835 935
Prime-Ag 2,030 430 1,684 915 930
RJOBrien 1,977 397 1,579 800 959
RMC 2,029 430 1,619 1,000 935
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing 1,977 405 1,527 849 925
US Commodities 2,027 425 1,495 875 910
Vantage RM 2,027 430 1,664 846 925
Western Milling 1,953 435 1,210 791 1,001

DJ September World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Wednesday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18
Average Range USDA August
Corn 192.3 191.0-193.8 193.3
Soybeans 95.2 94.0-96.0 95.6
Wheat 272.7 270.0-274.0 273.1
2018-19
Average Range USDA August
Corn 154.4 152.0-159.0 155.5
Soybeans 107.5 105.0-111.1 105.9
Wheat 257.2 252.0-261.0 259.0
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 193.0 95.5 N/A 155.0 107.5 256.0
Agrivisor 193.0 95.5 273.0 152.5 105.5 258.0
Allendale 193.8 95.0 272.9 155.9 106.9 260.0
Doane 192.0 95.0 273.1 152.5 110.0 255.0
Farm Futures 191.0 94.0 274.0 159.0 107.0 261.0
Hueber Report 191.5 94.5 272.5 153.0 106.0 255.0
INTL FCStone 191.2 95.2 273.3 154.1 111.1 259.7
Northstar 191.0 95.0 273.1 153.5 108.9 257.0
Prime-Ag 193.0 96.0 273.0 156.0 107.0 252.0
RMC 193.3 95.9 273.1 155.3 106.4 258.8
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing 193.0 96.0 270.0 154.0 107.0 257.0
US Commodities 193.0 95.5 273.0 154.0 109.0 257.0
Western Milling 191.0 95.0 271.0 152.0 105.0 257.0

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 10
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 06, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/06/2018 08/30/2018 09/07/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 196 122 0 3,204 14,122
CORN 763,475 1,335,211 677,939 658,501 677,939
FLAXSEED 0 0 48 170 3,623
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 499 1,198 2,495
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 1,774 1,247 51,406 1,510 51,406
SOYBEANS 924,839 775,861 1,107,101 832,152 1,107,101
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 429,081 409,232 508,855 5,681,601 8,258,905
Total 2,119,365 2,521,673 2,345,848 7,178,336 10,115,591
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Alerts History
• 11-Sep-2018 08:32:36 AM – CORRECTED-BRAZIL’S 2017/18 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 76 MLN TNS, UP FROM 74 MLN TNS IN AUG (NOT SEPT) – CONAB
• 11-Sep-2018 08:32:36 AM – CORRECTED-BRAZIL’S 2017/18 CORN EXPORTS SEEN AT 25.5 MLN TNS, DOWN FROM 27 MLN TNS IN AUG (NOT SEPT) – CONAB
• 11-Sep-2018 08:32:37 AM – CORRECTED-BRAZIL’S 2017/18 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 119.3 MLN TNS VS 119 MLN TNS SEEN IN AUG (NOT SEPT) – CONAB
• 11-Sep-2018 08:32:37 AM – CORRECTED-BRAZIL’S 2017/18 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 81.4 MLN TNS VS 82.2 MLN TNS SEEN IN AUG (NOT SEPT) – CONAB
• 11-Sep-2018 08:32:37 AM – CORRECTED-BRAZIL’S 2017/18 COTTON CROP SEEN AT 2 MLN TNS (LINT) VS 1.97 MLN TNS SEEN IN AUG (NOT SEPT) – CONAB
• 11-Sep-2018 08:32:37 AM – CORRECTED-BRAZIL’S 2018 WHEAT CROP SEEN AT 5.24 MLN TNS VS 5.14 MLN TNS SEEN IN AUG (NOT SEPT) – CONAB
• 11-Sep-2018 08:32:37 AM – RPT-BRAZIL’S 2017/18 SOYBEAN END-STOCKS SEEN AT ONLY 0.43 MLN TNS – CONAB
RPT-Brazil raises soybean crop view; end-stocks below 1 mln tns – Reuters News
11-Sep-2018 08:34:56 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
Repeats to attach to corrected alerts, no change to content
SAO PAULO, Sept 11 (Reuters) – Brazil’s agricultural statistics agency Conab raised by 300,000 tonnes on Tuesday its projection for the country’s 2017/18 soybean crop to 119.3 million tonnes, the second highest output ever.
The agency reduced its estimate of Brazil’s 2017/18 soy end-stocks amid strong demand from China.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep. 12, 2018 20 Aug 08, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep. 12, 2018 357 Sep 10, 2018
CORN September Sep. 12, 2018 220 Aug 30, 2018
SOYBEAN September Sep. 12, 2018 139 Sep 10, 2018
WHEAT September Sep. 12, 2018 3 Sep 05, 2018

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were higher yesterday. There was talk that Russia is finally starting to worry about its Wheat and all grains supplies and could move to regulate or tax exports in the near future. In Australia, ABARES noted that the weather had damaged the Wheat production prospects there and cut it estimate to just over 19 million tons, a reduction of 13% from its June estimate. Russia is still open for business and there are no signs that the push to move Wheat from the country is about to slow down. There is still more Russian Wheat to move into the world market, and wire reports indicate that exporters will continue to sell as fast as possible to beat any potential halt to sales imposed by the government. Russia had a short crop this year and there has been talk of export restrictions, but so far the Russian government has only held meetings with exporters in an effort to find out how short supplies could become. Crops in Europe also remain in bad shape from a drought this year. Much of Australia have also seen drought, and world stocks levels are forecast to be as tight as they have been in years. The US Spring Wheat harvest is moving rapidly and could move to completion in the next week or so. The trade is keeping an eye on Spring Wheat in parts of the Canadian Prairies that have been hot and dry recently. Ideas are that Spring Wheat production will be less than original expectations in Canada due to some hot and dry conditions in growing areas earlier in the Summer. The weather in the US is improved for planting the next Winter Wheat crop as much of the Great Plains has seen rains in the last couple of weeks.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 524, 519, and 514 December, with resistance at 530, 535, and 549 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 519, 511, and 497 December, with resistance at 537, 542, and 558 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 554, 540, and 528 December. Support is at 576, 573, and 567 December, and resistance is at 584, 586, and 596 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in range trading. The trade is mostly preparing for the production and supply and demand estimates that will be released by USDA tomorrow. A good crop is expected, but good demand is also expected. Excellent yields are still being reported in southern areas as the harvest starts to wind down. Western parts of the growing area in Texas are done harvesting for the most part, and storage has been found for almost all of the crop. Southern Louisiana is winding down and the harvest is becoming more active in Mississippi and parts of Arkansas. Recent rains in Arkansas have been big, but do not appear heavy enough to damage quality yet. Demand is still reported to be strong on the domestic and on the export fronts, although the export sales report last week featured routine sales into Mexico and Central America, but not much more. Cash prices are stable in the interior and have held well. There is talk that cash values can start to erode once commercial space is filed, and cash values  have been reported weaker amid light demand in Texas. Ideas are that the northern Delta will harvest in earnest starting now.
Overnight News: The Delta should see drier weather. Temperatures should be near normal. .
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1119, 1132, and 1163 November. Support is at 1075, 1069, and 1062 November, with resistance at 1102, 1119, and 1136 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was slightly higher after a day of slow and range bound trading. Futures held to Friday’s trading range as the trade waited for the weekly crop updates and the USDA production reports. The weekly updates were delayed and will be released today. The production report is still to be released tomorrow, and the general expectation is for a big crop, but maybe a little less than what USDA saw last month. The market held as the weather has been less than perfect for finishing the crop. It has been very hot in much of the Midwest and some areas have seen flooding rains. Cooler weather is expected through this week, The recent heat seen recently is pushing the crop to maturity and might help to keep the crop from finishing as well as it might give the precipitation. It is cooler now, but warmer weather has pushed maturity ahead of normal by up to two weeks. The push to maturity could affect yield potential as the longer a crop has to develop the larger the grain can become. The market is keeping an eye on Hurricane Florence as it makes its way to the Carolinas. Producers from Georgia to Virginia are working to get as much of the crop harvested and into protected silos as possible. The amount that could be lost is not very much when compared to total US production.
Overnight News: South Korea bought 138,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 364, 361, and 359 December, and resistance is at 368, 372, and 376 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 249, 245, and 241 December, and resistance is at 256, 258, and 262 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were firm after a quiet day yesterday. The market is waiting for the USDA reports before making any big moves. The market is expecting a huge harvest after good August rains in many growing areas and as crop condition ratings have held strong. Domestic cash markets are called extremely weak with very bad basis levels in anticipation of the big harvest. Many traders think that the national yield potential is even higher than recent estimates given the good finishing weather. Average trade guesses call for a national yield near 52.5 bushels per acre and a national production of more than 4.5 billion bushels. However, the crop is starting to turn color in many areas, so additional yield growth might not be coming. It was much cooler over the weekend in the Midwest. Some areas got flooding rains, while others stayed dry. The market is also watching the path of Hurricane Florence as it makes its way to the Carolinas. Crops from Georgia to Virginia are threatened and most of these crops are not yet mature enough to be harvested. There is no doubt that the Soybeans crop in general is in better condition than the Corn crop, and the yield potential seems to be there as tourists reported very high pod counts on the plants for the better part of the tour. Chart trends are sideways for the short-term and down on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations cancelled purchases of 192,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 835, 826, and 820 November, and resistance is at 851, 866, and 884 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 310.00, 304.00, and 300.00 October, and resistance is at 320.00, 324.00, and 326.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2790, 2770, and 2740 October, with resistance at 2870, 2890, and 2910 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher in quiet trading. The Canola harvest is moving ever closer to reality, but it has been in the northern Prairies. A freeze was seen in the region last week. No damage reports have been heard yet, but the market acts as if there was no real damage. Some early harvesting has been reported in some areas, but we have not heard any yield reports yet. Ideas are that Canola is too high-priced compared to Soybeans. The stronger Canadian Dollar kept demand ideas weaker, but overall demand appears to be solid right now. Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. The trade started to look ahead to the monthly MPOB reports. Monthly ending stocks levels are expected to increase as rising production is expected to outpace rising demand. Futures remain in a short-term trading range.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 490.00, 487.00, and 485.00 November, with resistance at 499.00, 501.00, and 505.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2430 November. Support is at 2270, 2240, and 2210 November, with resistance at 2310, 2340, and 2360 November.

Trade Estimates for the Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : Aug
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Wednesday, 12 Sep
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.65 mil tonnes, Up 9.9%
Exports – 1.23 mil tonnes, Up 2.3%
Ending Stocks – 2.41 mil tonnes, Up 9.0%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.50 mil tonnes, Up 12.8%
Exports – 1.21 mil tonnes, Up 6.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.21 mil tonnes, Up 1.3%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 38 December 115 December minus 10 Nov 13-Oct
October 40 December Minus 5 Nov
November 47 December 60 December 12-Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
September
October 248 November 12-Oct 78 December
November 260 November 15-Dec 88 December

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 10
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 469.50 dm 1.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 506.70 up 1.20
2 Can 493.70 up 1.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 521.70 up 1.20
2 Can 508.70 up 1.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Ashley Robinson,
cnscanada@shaw.ca, 204-414-9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 607,358 lots, or 23.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 3,681 3,681 3,641 3,641 3,624 3,668 44 2,096 2,906
Nov-18 3,744 3,781 3,668 3,668 3,656 3,740 84 40 154
Jan-19 3,818 3,855 3,745 3,772 3,751 3,801 50 561,518 289,774
Mar-19 3,810 3,821 3,766 3,766 3,739 3,796 57 16 58
May-19 3,948 3,958 3,865 3,898 3,816 3,917 101 43,408 22,528
Jul-19 – – – 3,846 3,846 3,846 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,971 3,991 3,929 3,940 3,897 3,964 67 192 678
Nov-19 3,922 3,922 3,922 3,922 3,937 3,922 -15 2 12
Jan-20 4,001 4,001 3,920 3,942 3,970 3,962 -8 86 56
Corn
Turnover: 498,322 lots, or 9.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 1,853 1,853 1,830 1,830 1,849 1,832 -17 52 5,748
Nov-18 1,888 1,893 1,879 1,885 1,888 1,886 -2 10,314 44,450
Jan-19 1,923 1,929 1,913 1,918 1,923 1,919 -4 408,692 1,133,742
Mar-19 1,960 1,963 1,949 1,953 1,960 1,956 -4 762 4,378
May-19 2,009 2,015 2,002 2,005 2,010 2,006 -4 75,238 470,570
Jul-19 2,046 2,054 2,041 2,045 2,049 2,046 -3 3,264 22,332
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,527,066 lots, or 48.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 3,342 3,342 3,335 3,335 3,325 3,340 15 760 4,550
Nov-18 3,342 3,359 3,325 3,344 3,333 3,345 12 182,988 192,690
Dec-18 3,261 3,272 3,238 3,272 3,274 3,251 -23 74 852
Jan-19 3,184 3,195 3,166 3,187 3,168 3,180 12 1,166,432 2,416,898
Mar-19 3,009 3,018 2,993 3,008 2,992 3,006 14 1,692 5,458
May-19 2,796 2,809 2,786 2,796 2,789 2,796 7 174,338 986,330
Jul-19 2,772 2,779 2,763 2,772 2,762 2,771 9 780 9,394
Aug-19 2,816 2,816 2,816 2,816 2,815 2,816 1 2 206
Palm Oil
Turnover: 298,366 lots, or 14.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 – – – 4,696 4,696 4,696 0 0 5,688
Oct-18 – – – 4,852 4,852 4,852 0 0 8
Nov-18 – – – 4,844 4,844 4,844 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 4,986 4,986 4,986 0 0 34
Jan-19 4,928 4,944 4,896 4,922 4,900 4,918 18 286,220 499,418
Feb-19 – – – 4,930 4,930 4,930 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 4,982 4,982 4,982 0 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 5,118 5,118 5,118 0 0 18
May-19 5,088 5,096 5,050 5,070 5,062 5,072 10 12,146 78,818
Jun-19 – – – 5,098 5,098 5,098 0 0 58
Jul-19 – – – 5,142 5,132 5,142 10 0 36
Aug-19 – – – 5,146 5,146 5,146 0 0 12
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 421,996 lots, or 24.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 5,978 5,978 5,620 5,740 5,978 5,790 -188 786 4,612
Nov-18 – – – 5,840 5,840 5,840 0 0 22
Dec-18 – – – 5,950 5,950 5,950 0 0 16
Jan-19 5,920 5,926 5,882 5,906 5,890 5,904 14 359,884 907,636
Mar-19 – – – 5,978 5,978 5,978 0 0 116
May-19 5,878 5,882 5,844 5,864 5,868 5,860 -8 61,326 272,362
Jul-19 – – – 5,928 5,928 5,928 0 0 40
Aug-19 – – – 5,848 5,848 5,848 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322