About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Wednesday.
U.S. 2018 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA August USDA 2017
Corn Production 14,506 14,397-14,607 14,586 14,604
Soybean Production 4,659 4,528-4,781 4,586 4,392
Corn Yield 177.4 176.0-178.6 178.4 176.6
Soybean Yield 52.5 51.0-53.8 51.6 49.1
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
Advanced Market 14,555 178.0 4,656 52.4
AgriSource 14,586 178.4 4,665 52.5
Agrivisor 14,465 176.9 4,621 52.0
Allendale 14,529 177.7 4,636 52.2
DC Analysis 14,543 177.9 4,664 52.5
Doane 14,501 177.3 4,683 53.0
Farm Futures 14,456 176.5 4,528 51.0
Hueber Report 14,607 178.6 4,569 51.4
INTL FCStone 14,531 177.7 4,781 53.8
Sid Love Consulting 14,397 176.0 4,641 52.5
Northstar 14,507 178.0 4,676 52.6
Price Futures 14,430 176.5 4,665 52.5
Prime Ag 14,586 178.4 4,667 52.5
RJOBrien 14,477 177.0 4,618 52.0
RMC 14,511 177.4 4,756 53.5
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing 14,504 177.4 4,675 52.6
US Commodities 14,473 177.0 4,710 53.0
Vantage RM 14,560 178.0 4,667 52.5
Western Milling 14,397 176.0 4,641 52.2

DJ U.S. September Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Wednesday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2017-18
Average Range USDA August
Corn 2,014 1,953-2,079 2,027
Soybeans 418 397-435 430
2018-19
Average Range USDA August
Corn 1,590 1,210-1,737 1,684
Soybeans 836 722-1,000 785 Wheat 938 828-1,001 935
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,042 420 1,675 820 950
AgriSource 2,030 430 1,684 915 930
Agrivisor 2,002 420 1,567 781 935
Allendale 2,047 410 1,689 790 999
DC Analysis 1,995 397 1,583 811 828
Doane 1,972 405 1,600 785 930
Farm Futures 2,079 415 1,668 722 993
Hueber Report 2,025 430 1,631 770 935
INTL FCStone 2,005 407 1,737 906 983
Sid Love Consulting 2,027 430 1,494 796 915
Northstar 2,020 420 1,620 880 900
Price Futures 1,997 400 1,477 835 935
Prime-Ag 2,030 430 1,684 915 930
RJOBrien 1,977 397 1,579 800 959
RMC 2,029 430 1,619 1,000 935
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing 1,977 405 1,527 849 925
US Commodities 2,027 425 1,495 875 910
Vantage RM 2,027 430 1,664 846 925
Western Milling 1,953 435 1,210 791 1,001

DJ September World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Wednesday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18
Average Range USDA August
Corn 192.3 191.0-193.8 193.3
Soybeans 95.2 94.0-96.0 95.6
Wheat 272.7 270.0-274.0 273.1
2018-19
Average Range USDA August
Corn 154.4 152.0-159.0 155.5
Soybeans 107.5 105.0-111.1 105.9
Wheat 257.2 252.0-261.0 259.0
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 193.0 95.5 N/A 155.0 107.5 256.0
Agrivisor 193.0 95.5 273.0 152.5 105.5 258.0
Allendale 193.8 95.0 272.9 155.9 106.9 260.0
Doane 192.0 95.0 273.1 152.5 110.0 255.0
Farm Futures 191.0 94.0 274.0 159.0 107.0 261.0
Hueber Report 191.5 94.5 272.5 153.0 106.0 255.0
INTL FCStone 191.2 95.2 273.3 154.1 111.1 259.7
Northstar 191.0 95.0 273.1 153.5 108.9 257.0
Prime-Ag 193.0 96.0 273.0 156.0 107.0 252.0
RMC 193.3 95.9 273.1 155.3 106.4 258.8
Turner’s Take Ag Marketing 193.0 96.0 270.0 154.0 107.0 257.0
US Commodities 193.0 95.5 273.0 154.0 109.0 257.0
Western Milling 191.0 95.0 271.0 152.0 105.0 257.0

DJ Canadian Grain, Oilseed Stocks As Of July 31, 2018 – StatsCan – Sep 6
WINNIPEG–The following is the Statistics Canada grain and
oilseed stocks in all positions report.
Figures are as of July 31, 2018, in thousand metric tons.
Source: Statistics Canada.
On Farms Commercial Total
July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31
2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017
Barley 1,023 1,789 233 333 1,256 2,122
Canola 1,437 424 954 918 2,391 1,342
Corn n/a 1,566 n/a 922 n/a 2,487
Flaxseed 53 166 75 74 128 240
Lentils 725 224 151 91 876 315
Oats 612 576 172 127 784 703
Dry peas 381 163 269 137 650 300
All rye 72 134 32 30 104 164
Soybeans n/a 30 n/a 325 n/a 355
All wheat 2,659 2,312 3,520 4,544 6,180 6,856
Durum wheat 760 930 713 898 1,473 1,828
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

TABLE-Russia exported 23.1 mln tonnes of wheat in Jan-July – Reuters News
07-Sep-2018 05:01:36 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
MOSCOW, Sept 7 (Reuters) – Russian exports of wheat increased to 23.1 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2018 from 12.8 million tonnes a year ago, official customs data showed.
RUSSIAN AGRICULTURE EXPORTS
Jan-July 2018 Jan-July 2017
Thousand tonnes $ mln Thousand tonnes $ mln
WHEAT 23,091.2 4,246.6 12,801.9 2,299.2
VEGOIL 1,321.1 1,010.8 n/a n/a
RUSSIAN AGRICULTURE IMPORTS
Jan-July 2018 Jan-July 2017
Thousand tonnes $ mln Thousand tonnes $ mln
PALM OIL 550.0 411.3 n/a n/a
RED MEAT 221.5 807.1 349.2 1,102.3
POULTRY 118.5 191.0 133.5 212.0
RAW SUGAR 3.3 2.6 8.8 5.7
WHITE SUGAR 161.9 67.0 165.7 84.6
COFFEE 114.1 347.4 103.4 348.0
TEA 99.6 305.3 96.3 292.9
COCOA BEANS 28.4 75.6 25.9 68.1
COCOA-
CONTAINING PRODUCTS 67.5 245.4 42.4 189.2
BANANA 957.9 715.3 n/a n/a
CITRUS FRUIT 847.7 627.4 n/a n/a
• Coffee figures do not include soluble coffee.
(Moscow Newsroom Moscow.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com; +7 495 775 1242)

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep. 11, 2018 439 Sep 07, 2018
SOYBEAN September Sep. 11, 2018 252 Sep 07, 2018
WHEAT September Sep. 11, 2018 12 Sep 05, 2018

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower once again Friday. The funds were good sellers. Russia is still open for business and there are no signs that the push to move Wheat from the country is about to slow down. There is still more Russian Wheat to move into the world market, and wire reports indicate that exporters will continue to sell as fast as possible. Russia had a short crop this year and there has been talk of export restrictions, but so far the Russian government has only held meetings with exporters in an effort to find out how short supplies could become. Crops in Europe also remain in bad shape from a drought this year. Parts of Australia have also seen drought, and world stocks levels are forecast to be as tight as they have been in years. The US Spring Wheat harvest is moving rapidly and could move to completion in the next week or so. The trade is keeping an eye on Spring Wheat in parts of the Canadian Prairies that have been hot and dry recently. Ideas are that Spring Wheat production will be less than original expectations in Canada due to some hot and dry conditions in growing areas earlier in the Summer. The data as presented by USDA shows a very tight world ending stocks scenario moving forward, and these projections are expected to be little changed or perhaps show an even tighter stocks scenario when USDA updates its projections on Wednesday. USDA will also update its supply and demand projections for the domestic US market. Export sales so far have been consistent, but not real strong and USDA might cut its export demand by a small amount. USDA will not release new production estimates as it will wait for the Small Grains report at the end of the month to offer updates. The weather in the US is improved for planting the next Winter Wheat crop as much of the Great Plains has seen rains in the last couple of weeks.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 500, 494, and 471 December. Support is at 507, 503, and 496 December, with resistance at 519, 521, and 530 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 502 December. Support is at 511, 497, and 493 December, with resistance at 529, 537, and 542 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 554, 540, and 528 December. Support is at 568, 565, and 554 December, and resistance is at 576, 584, and 586 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 04, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 577,239
: Positions :
: 81,498 86,988 173,150 88,593 205,755 194,617 62,992 537,858 528,885: 39,381 48,354
: Changes from: August 28, 2018 (Change in open interest: 7,460) :
: -4,675 4,689 22,511 -7,027 -15,922 33 -2,421 10,842 8,857: -3,382 -1,397
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.1 15.1 30.0 15.3 35.6 33.7 10.9 93.2 91.6: 6.8 8.4
: Total Traders: 449 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 120 131 164 98 120 43 25 355 363:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 04, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 273,227
: Positions :
: 67,248 29,337 45,036 59,458 157,482 77,265 16,088 249,007 247,944: 24,221 25,284
: Changes from: August 28, 2018 (Change in open interest: -7,124) :
: -2,337 1,607 -2,690 -1,264 -6,048 -273 1,402 -6,563 -5,729: -561 -1,395
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.6 10.7 16.5 21.8 57.6 28.3 5.9 91.1 90.7: 8.9 9.3
: Total Traders: 261 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 40 73 66 91 31 9 205 189:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 4, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 58,996 :
: Positions :
: 29,469 29,968 3,497 0 243 8,310 7,334 289 5,381 6,422 2,190 :
: Changes from: August 28, 2018 :
: -759 -1,077 128 0 -32 -427 1,162 -855 -23 -741 20 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 50.0 50.8 5.9 0.0 0.4 14.1 12.4 0.5 9.1 10.9 3.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 96 :
: 41 31 6 0 . 13 11 5 9 7 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 4, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 21,247 :
: Positions :
: 16,636 17,512 0 1,091 77 1,974 0 450 1,010 500 1,000 :
: Changes from: August 28, 2018 :
: -408 -450 0 -10 2 200 0 -200 0 200 -100 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 78.3 82.4 0.0 5.1 0.4 9.3 0.0 2.1 4.8 2.4 4.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 30 :
: 16 14 0 . . 4 0 . . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher in range trading. Excellent yields are still being reported in southern areas as the harvest starts to wind down. Western parts of the growing area in Texas are done harvesting for the most part, and storage has been found for almost all of the crop. Southern Louisiana is winding down and the harvest is becoming more active in Mississippi and parts of Arkansas. However, there are some questions as to how big the yields will be farther to the north do to grass in the fields that could reduce the space for Rice to develop. Recent rains in Arkansas have been big, but do not appear heavy enough to damage quality yet. Demand is still reported to be strong on the domestic and on the export fronts, although the export sales report last week featured routine sales into Mexico and Central America, but not much more. Ideas are that the cash market is still very tight as new crop supplies are just becoming available in far southern areas and old crop supplies are mostly sold out everywhere. Cash prices are stable in the interior and have held well. There is talk that cash values can start to erode once commercial space is filed, and cash values have been reported weaker amid light demand in Texas. Ideas are that the northern Delta will harvest in earnest starting now.
Overnight News: The Delta should see drier weather. Temperatures should be near normal. .
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1119, 1132, and 1163 November. Support is at 1075, 1069, and 1062 November, with resistance at 1096, 1098, and 1100 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 4, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 7,660 :
: Positions :
: 4,722 3,682 171 0 0 614 2,062 0 468 384 267 :
: Changes from: August 28, 2018 :
: 82 41 9 0 0 20 -98 0 72 91 33 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 61.6 48.1 2.2 0.0 0.0 8.0 26.9 0.0 6.1 5.0 3.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 44 :
: 15 15 . 0 0 4 7 0 6 5 7 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was slightly higher after a day of slow and range bound trading. The market held as the weather has been less than perfect for finishing the crop. It has been very hot in much of the Midwest and some areas have seen flooding rains. Cooler weather is expected through this week, There has been plenty of rain in much of the Midwest lately, and temperatures are mostly hot. The heat seen recently is pushing the crop to maturity and might help to keep the crop from finishing as well as it might give the precipitation. It is cooler now, but warmer weather has pushed maturity ahead of normal by up to two weeks. The push to maturity could affect yield potential as the longer a crop has to develop the larger the grain can become. Demand remains strong, with strong export sales expected to continue. Mexico remains the largest buyer of US Corn in the world market. The market is getting ready for the USDA reports on Wednesday, and USDA is expected to trim yield and production expectations slightly
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 364, 361, and 359 December, and resistance is at 368, 372, and 376 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 244 and 230 December. Support is at 245, 241, and 239 December, and resistance is at 249, 251, and 256 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 04, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,058,661
: Positions :
: 299,262 381,832 506,922 646,518 815,121 401,893 130,261 1,854,595 1,834,136: 204,066 224,525
: Changes from: August 28, 2018 (Change in open interest: 9,579) :
: 23,610 23,994 3,977 -22,246 -9,528 1,056 695 6,397 19,139: 3,182 -9,559
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.5 18.5 24.6 31.4 39.6 19.5 6.3 90.1 89.1: 9.9 10.9
: Total Traders: 895 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 186 173 203 348 394 46 30 687 706:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 4, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,076 :
: Positions :
: 805 2,003 196 0 0 185 334 0 808 600 292 :
: Changes from: August 28, 2018 :
: -573 -804 -18 0 0 -189 6 -1 -3 152 26 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.7 49.1 4.8 0.0 0.0 4.5 8.2 0.0 19.8 14.7 7.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 23 :
: 6 7 . 0 0 . . 0 . 6 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products where firm after a quiet day on Friday. Soybeans were Little changed for the week. The market is expecting a huge harvest after good August rains in many growing areas and as crop condition ratings have held strong. Domestic cash markets are called extremely weak in anticipation of the big harvest. Many traders think that the national yield potential is even higher than recent estimates given the good finishing weather. Average trade guesses call for a national yield near 52.5 bushels per acre and a national production of more than 4.5 billion bushels. However, the crop is starting to turn color in many areas, so additional yield growth might not be coming. It was much cooler over the weekend in the Midwest. Some areas got flooding rains, while others stayed dry. There is no doubt that the Soybeans crop in general is in better condition than the Corn crop, and the yield potential seems to be there as tourists reported very high pod counts on the plants for the better part of the tour. Chart trends are sideways for the short-term and down on the weekly charts.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 835, 826, and 820 November, and resistance is at 851, 866, and 884 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 310.00, 304.00, and 300.00 October, and resistance is at 320.00, 324.00, and 326.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2790, 2770, and 2740 October, with resistance at 2870, 2890, and 2910 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 04, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 986,647
: Positions :
: 79,003 190,570 264,724 372,910 351,086 201,097 80,785 917,733 887,164: 68,914 99,483
: Changes from: August 28, 2018 (Change in open interest: 2,117) :
: 583 14,731 1,674 925 -10,023 -204 -1,291 2,978 5,091: -862 -2,974
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.0 19.3 26.8 37.8 35.6 20.4 8.2 93.0 89.9: 7.0 10.1
: Total Traders: 684 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 153 196 215 203 215 45 28 531 542:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 04, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 556,714
: Positions :
: 69,419 153,624 145,131 184,194 205,278 119,441 20,343 518,184 524,375: 38,530 32,338
: Changes from: August 28, 2018 (Change in open interest: -1,781) :
: -1,582 1,556 -4,986 558 4,565 5,390 -693 -620 442: -1,161 -2,223
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.5 27.6 26.1 33.1 36.9 21.5 3.7 93.1 94.2: 6.9 5.8
: Total Traders: 350 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 118 109 83 66 35 17 259 262:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 04, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 576,598
: Positions :
: 72,056 52,133 141,356 193,934 306,247 113,314 33,156 520,660 532,891: 55,938 43,707
: Changes from: August 28, 2018 (Change in open interest: 13,567) :
: -885 2,319 6,493 5,614 2,373 -1,089 696 10,133 11,881: 3,434 1,685
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.5 9.0 24.5 33.6 53.1 19.7 5.8 90.3 92.4: 9.7 7.6
: Total Traders: 328 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 61 109 109 103 33 13 287 247:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower in quiet trading. The Canola harvest is moving ever closer to reality, but there was a freeze in the northern Prairies. No damage reports have been heard yet. Some early harvesting has been reported in some areas, but we have not heard any yield reports yet. Ideas are that Canola is too high-priced compared to Soybeans. The stronger Canadian Dollar kept demand ideas weaker, but overall demand appears to be solid right now. Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. The trade started to look ahead to the monthly MPOB reports. Monthly ending stocks levels are expected to increase as rising production is expected to outpace rising demand. Futures remain in a short-term trading range.
Overnight News: AmSpec said exports so far this month are 506,212 tons, from 298,610 tons last month. ITS said that exports are 489,492 tons, from 300,326 tons last month
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 490.00, 487.00, and 485.00 November, with resistance at 499.00, 501.00, and 505.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2430 November. Support is at 2270, 2240, and 2210 November, with resistance at 2310, 2340, and 2360 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 4, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
MALAYSIAN PALM OIL CALENDAR SW – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037642 Open Interest is 19,122 :
: Positions :
: 16,894 12,640 1,580 2,418 324 0 120 0 80 3,376 244 :
: Changes from: August 28, 2018 :
: -534 -1,026 -264 668 -188 0 0 0 0 -440 80 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 88.3 66.1 8.3 12.6 1.7 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.4 17.7 1.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 21 :
: 4 4 . 4 . 0 . 0 . 9 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 4, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 182,214 :
: Positions :
: 118,977 95,731 6,787 1,884 1,697 35,868 34,182 6,174 3,653 32,232 8,127 :
: Changes from: August 28, 2018 :
: 4,821 3,075 191 -83 -475 -1,106 2,860 102 240 -1,258 -192 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 65.3 52.5 3.7 1.0 0.9 19.7 18.8 3.4 2.0 17.7 4.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 254 :
: 26 28 4 6 7 15 41 13 48 102 27 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Trade Estimates for the Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : Aug
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Wednesday, 12 Sep
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.65 mil tonnes, Up 9.9%
Exports – 1.23 mil tonnes, Up 2.3%
Ending Stocks – 2.41 mil tonnes, Up 9.0%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.50 mil tonnes, Up 12.8%
Exports – 1.21 mil tonnes, Up 6.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.21 mil tonnes, Up 1.3%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 41 December 115 December 58 September 10-Nov 15-Oct
October 45 December 13-Nov
November 52 December 25-Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
September
October 240 November 12-Oct 80 December
November 255 November 12-Dec 90 December

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 7
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 468.30 up 1.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 505.50 dn 2.80
2 Can 492.50 dn 2.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 520.50 dn 2.80
2 Can 507.50 dn 2.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 562,816 lots, or 21.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 3,594 3,678 3,594 3,678 3,512 3,624 112 258 4,524
Nov-18 3,592 3,760 3,592 3,722 3,581 3,656 75 96 162
Jan-19 3,643 3,809 3,636 3,809 3,628 3,751 123 530,984 308,996
Mar-19 3,672 3,800 3,672 3,800 3,623 3,739 116 38 62
May-19 3,713 3,886 3,708 3,886 3,701 3,816 115 31,236 24,824
Jul-19 3,846 3,846 3,846 3,846 3,701 3,846 145 2 8
Sep-19 3,776 3,962 3,762 3,961 3,774 3,897 123 162 680
Nov-19 3,937 3,937 3,937 3,937 3,756 3,937 181 2 12
Jan-20 3,927 3,984 3,927 3,984 3,795 3,970 175 38 26
Corn
Turnover: 791,680 lots, or 15.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 1,849 1,849 1,849 1,849 1,849 1,849 0 50 10,102
Nov-18 1,883 1,893 1,883 1,889 1,883 1,888 5 24,098 44,426
Jan-19 1,916 1,929 1,916 1,924 1,914 1,923 9 573,938 1,156,274
Mar-19 1,954 1,966 1,953 1,960 1,949 1,960 11 2,384 4,304
May-19 2,000 2,019 2,000 2,010 1,997 2,010 13 184,648 470,188
Jul-19 2,039 2,058 2,039 2,049 2,036 2,049 13 6,562 22,488
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,912,028 lots, or 91.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 3,348 3,350 3,310 3,330 3,299 3,325 26 456 6,550
Nov-18 3,294 3,380 3,291 3,346 3,294 3,333 39 167,142 204,094
Dec-18 3,220 3,284 3,220 3,265 3,205 3,274 69 88 812
Jan-19 3,132 3,217 3,118 3,178 3,121 3,168 47 2,369,574 2,453,370
Mar-19 2,976 3,037 2,966 3,006 2,972 2,992 20 2,778 5,904
May-19 2,775 2,814 2,766 2,796 2,775 2,789 14 369,946 974,644
Jul-19 2,755 2,784 2,748 2,772 2,754 2,762 8 2,028 9,364
Aug-19 2,801 2,821 2,801 2,818 2,801 2,815 14 16 206
Palm Oil
Turnover: 485,402 lots, or 23.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 4,696 4,700 4,696 4,700 4,604 4,696 92 70 5,688
Oct-18 – – – 4,852 4,852 4,852 0 0 8
Nov-18 – – – 4,844 4,750 4,844 94 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 4,986 4,890 4,986 96 0 34
Jan-19 4,896 4,938 4,868 4,928 4,910 4,900 -10 465,652 500,130
Feb-19 4,902 4,960 4,902 4,960 4,982 4,930 -52 4 2
Mar-19 – – – 4,982 4,982 4,982 0 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 5,118 5,118 5,118 0 0 18
May-19 5,048 5,102 5,028 5,086 5,062 5,062 0 19,676 78,802
Jun-19 – – – 5,098 5,098 5,098 0 0 58
Jul-19 – – – 5,132 5,132 5,132 0 0 36
Aug-19 – – – 5,146 5,146 5,146 0 0 12
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 849,736 lots, or 50.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 5,824 6,098 5,752 5,752 5,754 5,978 224 310 5,950
Nov-18 – – – 5,840 5,840 5,840 0 0 22
Dec-18 5,950 5,950 5,950 5,950 5,924 5,950 26 10 16
Jan-19 5,868 5,946 5,832 5,916 5,866 5,890 24 714,508 912,690
Mar-19 5,978 5,978 5,978 5,978 5,934 5,978 44 2 116
May-19 5,840 5,914 5,808 5,874 5,838 5,868 30 134,906 268,680
Jul-19 – – – 5,928 5,928 5,928 0 0 40
Aug-19 – – – 5,848 5,848 5,848 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322