About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

UPDATE 1-Informa raises U.S. 2018 corn, soy yield forecasts -trade – Reuters News
06-Sep-2018 11:20:37 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
Adds Informa crop production estimates, USDA figures
CHICAGO, Sept 6 (Reuters) – Private analytics firm Informa Economics revised its forecast for the U.S. 2018 corn yield upward to 178.8 bushels per acre (bpa) from 176.0 bpa previously, and raised its U.S. soybean yield forecast to 52.9 bpa from 50.0 bpa, trade sources said on Thursday.
Informa projected U.S. 2018 corn production at 14.621 billion bushels and soybean production at 4.698 billion bushels, the sources said.
Informa officials had no comment on the figures.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in August projected the U.S. corn crop at 14.586 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 178.4 bpa, and put soybean production at 4.586 billion bushels with an average yield of 51.6 bpa.
The USDA is scheduled to release its updated forecasts on Sept. 12.

DJ Canadian Grain, Oilseed Stocks As Of July 31, 2018 – StatsCan – Sep 6
WINNIPEG–The following is the Statistics Canada grain and
oilseed stocks in all positions report.
Figures are as of July 31, 2018, in thousand metric tons.
Source: Statistics Canada.
On Farms Commercial Total
July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31 July 31
2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017
Barley 1,023 1,789 233 333 1,256 2,122
Canola 1,437 424 954 918 2,391 1,342
Corn n/a 1,566 n/a 922 n/a 2,487
Flaxseed 53 166 75 74 128 240
Lentils 725 224 151 91 876 315
Oats 612 576 172 127 784 703
Dry peas 381 163 269 137 650 300
All rye 72 134 32 30 104 164
Soybeans n/a 30 n/a 325 n/a 355
All wheat 2,659 2,312 3,520 4,544 6,180 6,856
Durum wheat 760 930 713 898 1,473 1,828
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

TABLE-Russia exported 23.1 mln tonnes of wheat in Jan-July – Reuters News
07-Sep-2018 05:01:36 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
MOSCOW, Sept 7 (Reuters) – Russian exports of wheat increased to 23.1 million tonnes in the first seven months of 2018 from 12.8 million tonnes a year ago, official customs data showed.
RUSSIAN AGRICULTURE EXPORTS
Jan-July 2018 Jan-July 2017
Thousand tonnes $ mln Thousand tonnes $ mln
WHEAT 23,091.2 4,246.6 12,801.9 2,299.2
VEGOIL 1,321.1 1,010.8 n/a n/a
RUSSIAN AGRICULTURE IMPORTS
Jan-July 2018 Jan-July 2017
Thousand tonnes $ mln Thousand tonnes $ mln
PALM OIL 550.0 411.3 n/a n/a
RED MEAT 221.5 807.1 349.2 1,102.3
POULTRY 118.5 191.0 133.5 212.0
RAW SUGAR 3.3 2.6 8.8 5.7
WHITE SUGAR 161.9 67.0 165.7 84.6
COFFEE 114.1 347.4 103.4 348.0
TEA 99.6 305.3 96.3 292.9
COCOA BEANS 28.4 75.6 25.9 68.1
COCOA-
CONTAINING PRODUCTS 67.5 245.4 42.4 189.2
BANANA 957.9 715.3 n/a n/a
CITRUS FRUIT 847.7 627.4 n/a n/a
• Coffee figures do not include soluble coffee.
(Moscow Newsroom Moscow.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com; +7 495 775 1242)

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 7
For the week ended Aug 30, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 379.8 0.0 9351.3 12459.0 4396.0 0.0
hrw 124.9 0.0 2701.7 4669.1 1414.6 0.0
srw 18.4 0.0 1191.6 1227.3 551.5 0.0
hrs 116.1 0.0 2840.8 3353.5 1313.4 0.0
white 97.6 0.0 2377.0 3006.3 943.1 0.0
durum 22.8 0.0 240.1 202.9 173.3 0.0
corn 30.1 1032.9 60571.5 56405.3 3362.1 11471.0
soybeans 0.6 672.6 58873.2 60476.6 2658.8 13890.4
soymeal 69.3 289.5 12499.1 10451.4 1348.5 1745.1
soyoil -3.7 1.3 1057.3 1122.8 90.0 41.9
upland cotto 92.2 0.0 8753.6 6754.1 7962.9 1370.3
pima cotton 10.5 0.0 258.3 213.5 227.6 24.9
sorghum -2.3 10.2 5086.2 5172.6 5.8 40.2
barley 0.4 0.0 52.4 36.2 40.1 0.0
rice 26.3 0.0 568.5 602.0 366.0 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 7
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep. 10, 2018 373 Sep 06, 2018
CORN September Sep. 10, 2018 17 Aug 30, 2018
ETHANOL September Sep. 10, 2018 10 Sep 04, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep. 10, 2018 2 Aug 31, 2018
OATS September Sep. 10, 2018 2 Sep 04, 2018
SOYBEAN September Sep. 10, 2018 350 Sep 06, 2018
WHEAT September Sep. 10, 2018 186 Sep 05, 2018

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower once again yesterday on reports that Russian exporters continue to lower prices to sell Wheat in the international market. The funds were good sellers. Russia is still open for business and there are no signs that the push to move Wheat from the country is about to slow down. There is still more Russian Wheat to move into the world market, and wire reports indicate that exporters will continue to sell as fast as possible. Russia had a short crop this year and there has been talk of export restrictions, but so far the Russian government has only held meetings with exporters in an effort to find out how short supplies could become. Crops in Europe also remain in bad shape from a drought this year. Parts of Australia have also seen drought, and world stocks levels are forecast to be as tight as they have been in years. The US Spring Wheat harvest is moving rapidly and could move to completion in the next week or so. The trade is keeping an eye on Spring Wheat in parts of the Canadian Prairies that have been hot and dry recently. Ideas are that Spring Wheat production will be less than original expectations in Canada due to some hot and dry conditions in growing areas earlier in the Summer.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains has the chance for scattered showers each day for the coming week. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather, but some showers should develop this weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 500, 494, and 471 December. Support is at 507, 503, and 496 December, with resistance at 521, 530, and 535 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 502 December. Support is at 511, 497, and 493 December, with resistance at 529, 537, and 542 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 571, 554, and 540 December. Support is at 568, 565, and 554 December, and resistance is at 576, 584, and 586 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was a little higher in range trading. Excellent yields are still being reported in southern areas. However, there are some questions as to how big the yields will be farther to the north do to grass in the fields that could reduce the space for Rice to develop. Demand is still reported to be strong on the domestic and on the export fronts. Ideas are that the cash market is still very tight as new crop supplies are just becoming available in far southern areas and old crop supplies are mostly sold out everywhere. Cash prices are stable in the interior and have held well. There is talk that cash values can start to erode once commercial space is filed. Ideas are that the northern Delta will harvest in earnest starting in early September.
Overnight News: The Delta should see scattered showers today and tomorrow, then drier weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. .
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1075, 1069, and 1062 November, with resistance at 1096, 1098, and 1100 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was slightly higher after a day of slow and range bound trading. The market held as the weather has been less than perfect for finishing the crop. It has been very hot in much of the Midwest and some areas have seen flooding rains. Cooler weather is expected through the weekend, but warmer than normal weather could return the next week. Most expect yields to improve as that has been the trend in recent years. There has been plenty of rain in much of the Midwest lately, and temperatures are mostly hot. The heat seen recently is pushing the crop to maturity and might help to keep the crop from finishing as well as it might give the precipitation. It is cooler now, but warmer weather is expected again next week and maturity is being pushed ahead of normal. The push to maturity could affect yield potential as the longer a crop has to develop the larger the grain can become. Demand remains strong, with strong export sales expected to continue. Ethanol production was 320 million gallons, a very strong week of production and an indication of strong domestic demand for Corn.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 364, 361, and 359 December, and resistance is at 368, 372, and 376 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 244 and 230 December. Support is at 245, 241, and 239 December, and resistance is at 249, 251, and 256 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were firm after a quiet day. The market is expecting a huge harvest after good August rains in many growing areas and as crop condition ratings have held strong. Domestic cash markets are called weak in anticipation of the big harvest. Many traders think that the national yield potential is even higher than recent estimates given the good finishing weather. However, the crop is starting to turn color in many areas, so additional yield growth might not be coming. It was very hot over the weekend in the Midwest. Some areas got flooding rains, while others stayed dry. There is no doubt that the Soybeans crop in general is in better condition than the Corn crop, and the yield potential seems to be there as tourists reported very high pod counts on the plants for the better part of the tour. Chart trends are sideways for the short-term.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 826, 820, and 814 November, and resistance is at 851, 866, and 884 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 304.00, 300.00, and 297.00 October, and resistance is at 311.00, 315.00, and 320.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2810, 2790, and 2770 October, with resistance at 2870, 2890, and 2910 October.

Alerts History
• 05-Sep-2018 12:37:24 PM – BRAZIL 2018 SOYBEAN OUTPUT SEEN AT 118.8 MLN T VS 118.7 MLN T IN PREVIOUS FORECAST -INDUSTRY GROUP ABIOVE
• 05-Sep-2018 12:37:47 PM – BRAZIL 2018 SOYBEAN EXPORTS SEEN AT 76.1 MLN T VS 73.5 MLN T IN PREVIOUS FORECAST -ABIOVE
• 05-Sep-2018 12:38:42 PM – BRAZIL 2018 SOYBEAN CRUSHING SEEN AT 43.6 MLN T, STEADY WITH 43.6 MLN T IN PREVIOUS FORECAST -ABIOVE
• 05-Sep-2018 12:49:29 PM – BRAZIL 2018 SOYBEAN STOCKS SEEN AT 1.465 MLN T VS 3.865 MLN T IN PREVIOUS FORECAST -ABIOVE
Brazil 2018 soybean exports soar to record, stocks dwindle -trade group – Reuters News
05-Sep-2018 01:12:16 PM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
BRASIL, Sept 5 (Reuters) –
• Brazil industry group above revises up country’s 2018 soybean export forecast to record 76.1 million tonnes, up 3.5 pct from 73.5 million tonnes in previous prediction
• Above cuts 2018 outlook for Brazil soybean stocks to 1.465 million tonnes from 3.865 million tonnes in previous forecast as exports soar
• Brazil 2018 soybean output seen edging up to 118.8 million tonnes versus 118.7 million tonnes previously
• Brazil 2018 soybean crushing seen at 43.6 million tonnes, steady against previous forecast

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher in quiet trading. The Canola harvest is moving ever closer to reality, but there was a freeze in the northern Prairies. No damage reports have been heard yet. Some early harvesting has been reported in some areas, but we have not heard any yield reports yet. Ideas are that Canola is too high-priced compared to Soybeans. The stronger Canadian Dollar kept demand ideas weaker, but overall demand appears to be solid right now. Palm Oil was a little lower on the outside markets and as the trade started to look ahead to the monthly MPOB reports. Monthly ending stocks levels are expected to increase as rising production is expected to outpace rising demand. Futures remain in a short-term trading range.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 490.00, 487.00, and 485.00 November, with resistance at 499.00, 501.00, and 505.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2430 November. Support is at 2270, 2240, and 2210 November, with resistance at 2310, 2340, and 2360 November.

Trade Estimates for the monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : Aug
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Wednesday, 12 Sep
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.65 mil tonnes, Up 9.9%
Exports – 1.23 mil tonnes, Up 2.3%
Ending Stocks – 2.41 mil tonnes, Up 9.0%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.50 mil tonnes, Up 12.8%
Exports – 1.21 mil tonnes, Up 6.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.21 mil tonnes, Up 1.3%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers possible again today and then late this week and this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal this week and near to below normal by this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 41 December 115 December 58 September 10-Nov 15-Oct
October 45 December 13-Nov
November 52 December 25-Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
September
October 240 November 12-Oct 80 December
November 255 November 12-Dec 90 December

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 6
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 466.60 dn 0.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 508.30 up 1.70
2 Can 495.30 up 1.70
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 523.30 up 1.70
2 Can 510.30 up 1.70
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 7
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 567.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 572.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 577.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 597.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Sep 570.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 575.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 580.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 600.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 547.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 485.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,240 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 228 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1442)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 07
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 148,560 lots, or 5.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 3,512 3,512 3,512 3,512 3,495 3,512 17 354 4,522
Nov-18 3,581 3,586 3,567 3,567 3,507 3,581 74 14 150
Jan-19 3,622 3,645 3,608 3,644 3,598 3,628 30 140,140 266,108
Mar-19 – – – 3,623 3,623 3,623 0 0 58
May-19 3,698 3,712 3,684 3,712 3,673 3,701 28 8,032 23,764
Jul-19 – – – 3,701 3,701 3,701 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,765 3,782 3,756 3,771 3,738 3,774 36 18 700
Nov-19 – – – 3,756 3,756 3,756 0 0 12
Jan-20 3,795 3,795 3,795 3,795 3,799 3,795 -4 2 38
Corn
Turnover: 432,520 lots, or 8.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 1,849 1,850 1,849 1,850 1,851 1,849 -2 270 10,242
Nov-18 1,885 1,887 1,881 1,883 1,886 1,883 -3 15,292 41,408
Jan-19 1,919 1,920 1,911 1,914 1,920 1,914 -6 339,784 1,140,664
Mar-19 1,953 1,955 1,947 1,949 1,958 1,949 -9 2,378 3,398
May-19 1,998 2,001 1,994 1,998 2,001 1,997 -4 70,592 433,308
Jul-19 2,034 2,040 2,033 2,037 2,038 2,036 -2 4,204 20,368
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,798,198 lots, or 55.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 3,302 3,302 3,273 3,295 3,302 3,299 -3 1,086 6,650
Nov-18 3,295 3,308 3,283 3,294 3,279 3,294 15 153,212 209,002
Dec-18 3,196 3,207 3,196 3,204 3,182 3,205 23 24 760
Jan-19 3,121 3,137 3,105 3,125 3,107 3,121 14 1,443,918 2,282,844
Mar-19 2,978 2,982 2,962 2,973 2,969 2,972 3 1,520 6,386
May-19 2,781 2,784 2,766 2,772 2,774 2,775 1 197,062 955,356
Jul-19 2,760 2,763 2,747 2,752 2,754 2,754 0 1,372 9,260
Aug-19 2,811 2,811 2,792 2,792 2,803 2,801 -2 4 206
Palm Oil
Turnover: 495,084 lots, or 24.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 4,738 4,738 4,500 4,592 4,738 4,604 -134 1,804 5,688
Oct-18 – – – 4,852 4,852 4,852 0 0 8
Nov-18 – – – 4,750 4,888 4,750 -138 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 4,890 5,032 4,890 -142 0 34
Jan-19 4,946 4,972 4,872 4,900 4,936 4,910 -26 462,816 470,016
Feb-19 – – – 4,982 5,008 4,982 -26 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 4,982 5,008 4,982 -26 0 4
Apr-19 – – – 5,118 5,144 5,118 -26 0 18
May-19 5,096 5,116 5,030 5,058 5,090 5,062 -28 30,444 77,670
Jun-19 – – – 5,098 5,126 5,098 -28 0 58
Jul-19 5,174 5,174 5,090 5,090 5,138 5,132 -6 20 36
Aug-19 – – – 5,146 5,146 5,146 0 0 12
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 519,342 lots, or 30.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 5,754 5,754 5,754 5,754 5,736 5,754 18 90 6,590
Nov-18 – – – 5,840 5,840 5,840 0 0 22
Dec-18 5,922 5,932 5,922 5,932 5,890 5,924 34 8 16
Jan-19 5,878 5,912 5,832 5,872 5,864 5,866 2 469,758 895,716
Mar-19 – – – 5,934 5,934 5,934 0 0 116
May-19 5,846 5,880 5,806 5,840 5,838 5,838 0 49,482 268,316
Jul-19 5,928 5,928 5,928 5,928 5,914 5,928 14 4 40
Aug-19 – – – 5,848 5,848 5,848 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322