About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug. 15, 2018 34 Aug 09, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug. 15, 2018 66 Aug 13, 2018
SOYBEAN August Aug. 15, 2018 52 Aug 10, 2018

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Aug 13
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING AUG 09, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 08/09/2018 08/02/2018 08/10/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 293 2,195 1,516 12,227
CORN 1,261,900 1,287,772 761,317 54,036,457 54,563,538
FLAXSEED 0 0 196 48 3,477
MIXED 0 0 0 24 24
OATS 0 0 100 1,198 1,497
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 672 47,603 69,625 4,895,510 5,703,473
SOYBEANS 580,824 893,158 590,887 53,951,248 55,729,289
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 335 383
WHEAT 462,854 326,584 511,624 3,821,656 6,175,399
Total 2,306,250 2,555,410 1,935,944 116,707,992 122,189,307
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 12-Aug 5-Aug 2017 Avg
Cotton Squaring 96 92 97 98
Cotton Setting Bolls 77 60 77 78
Cotton Bolls Opening 13 9 10 9
Corn Dough 73 57 58 56
Corn Dented 26 12 15 13
Soybeans Blooming 96 92 93 92
Soybeans Setting Pods 84 75 77 72
Sorghum Headed 78 69 73 73
Sorghum Coloring 37 31 30 36
Sorghum Mature 21 20 21 24
Peanuts Pegging 94 90 94 95
Sunflowers Planted 95 91 100 95
Rice Headed 91 82 90 83
Rice Harvested 11 6 12 9
Oats Harvested 67 51 64 64
Winter Wheat Harvested 94 90 97 96
Spring Wheat Harvested 35 13 38 27
Barley Harvested 41 16 48 38

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Cotton This Week 14 20 26 32 8
Cotton Last Week 11 21 28 32 8
Cotton Last Year 8 4 27 44 17

Corn This Week 3 7 20 50 20
Corn Last Week 3 7 19 50 21
Corn Last Year 3 9 26 49 13

Soybeans This Week 3 7 24 50 16
Soybeans Last Week 3 7 23 51 16
Soybeans Last Year 3 9 29 49 10

Spring Wheat This Week 1 4 20 62 13
Spring Wheat Last Week 1 5 20 60 14
Spring Wheat Last Year 24 18 25 27 8

Sorghum This Week 5 12 34 42 1
Sorghum Last Week 6 12 33 42 7
Sorghum Last Year 2 6 28 54 10

Rice This Week 1 6 24 57 12
Rice Last Week 1 7 23 56 13
Rice Last Year 1 6 22 56 15

Peanuts This Week 1 3 23 58 15
Peanuts Last Week 1 3 25 58 13
Peanuts Last Year 0 4 16 60 20

Barley This Week 0 3 16 67 14
Barley Last Week 0 2 19 64 15
Barley Last Year 9 13 29 39 10

Pastures and Ranges This Week 12 18 30 34 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 12 18 30 34 6
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 8 14 31 39 8

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower again yesterday in response to news of weaker European and Russian prices. USDA showed that the US Winter Wheat harvest is now in its final stages and that the Spring Wheat harvest is starting to increase. The trade will keep a close eye on the Spring Wheat harvest after USDA left it production estimate unchanged last week. Most think the estimate is too high and will have to come down The overall chart patterns are still relatively strong, but the market will need rallies in overseas markets to sustain higher prices here. Significantly lower production is expected in Europe and Russia, and world prices have been moving higher in response. However, Russian prices have become more stable lately. The potential for losses to Wheat in northern Europe continues to be reported, and some analysts now say that EU production would be the lowest in many years. The harvest continues in all areas and yields have been disappointing.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 543 and 521 September. Support is at 542, 537, and 527 September, with resistance at 552, 554, and 565 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 557 and 536 September. Support is at 553, 538, and 533 September, with resistance at 564, 578, and 586 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 607, 594, and 520 September. Support is at 600, 595, and 581 September, and resistance is at 613, 619, and 625 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower again yesterday as the harvest starts to make real progress. The funds have been selling and kept the selling pressure on. USDA showed increased carry in stocks for the next crop year, but cut production from 213 million hundredweight to 210.9 million. It cut exports significantly, especially for milled long grain, so US ending stocks were a little higher at 43.6 million hundredweight. No changers of any significance were made to medium or short grain supply and demand estimates. Reports that the harvest is expanding in parts of Texas and southern Louisiana have been a reason to sell. The harvest is much more active this week in Texas and southern Louisiana and will soon spread north. Producers in Arkansas are reporting that Rice fields have a lot of grass, and this could rob some yield potential. Initial reports from Texas and Louisiana indicate good field yields.
Overnight News: The Delta should see more dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. .
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1030, 1024, and 1012 September, with resistance at 1053, 1065, and 1067 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday on follow through selling tied to the USDA reports last week. USDA estimated very strong yields at above 178 bushels per acre and higher than projected production at 14.586 billion bushels. Export and feed demand was increased, so ending stocks were just above trade guesses at 1.684 billion bushels. World ending stocks were higher than expected at 158.5 million tons. Many are not sure about the US yield potential after recent stressful weather and as the Brazil crop seems overestimated. However, the market will trade the numbers and bearish traders still have very high condition ratings on their side in the battle over price direction. US Corn has been stressed in some areas by too much rain and in others by dry conditions. USDA did reflect losses in Missouri, one of the driest states this year, but found record yields in some areas where only average yields have been expected. However, the strong demand potential could keep prices from falling too far.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 142,248 tons of Corn for 2018-19 and 71,124 tons of Corn for 2019-20
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 350 September. Support is at 352, 346, and 339 September, and resistance is at 360, 365, and 370 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 257, 255, and 250 September, and resistance is at 262, 265, and 267 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher yesterday in correction trading after the ig selloff seen last Friday. USDA estimated yield, production, and ending stocks levels above all trade guesses nd that created the selling last week. Ending stocks for the coming year were estimated well above all trade estimates at 785 million bushels. World ending stocks were also above all trade guesses at 105.9 million tons. However, bullish traders are talking about better demand due to cheaper US prices and got some help yesterday as a big sale to Mexico was announced in the daily reporting system. The US and Chinese governments are still looking for ways to get talks started to reduce the tariff wars and get exports flowing between the two countries again, but things seem to be going in the other direction. The Chinese appear ready to play a waiting game and the US keeps adding to the tariffs list with new and increased tariffs. Even so, the trade is increasingly optimistic that China will have to buy here in the US sooner or later. China will be forced to pay more for Brazilian supplies for now and the rest of the world will enjoy cheaper Soybeans from the US. US growing conditions have been variable, with hot and dry conditions in the east and southwest and too much rain in the north, so national yield potential could be somewhat variable
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 848, 843, and 817 September, and resistance is at 863, 873, and 889 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 312.00 September. Support is at 324.00, 320.00, and 318.00 September, and resistance is at 330.00, 336.00, and 341.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2800, 2780, and 2760 September, with resistance at 2850, 2870, and 2890 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher along with Chicago and on reports of continued hot weather in the Prairies. The heat could hurt Canola yields. The charts show that futures are testing into a support area. Speculators were the best sellers despite crop production uncertainty. The crops in general look good, but August is coming and the conditions could change quickly.. Concerns about drought in parts of the western Prairies give support. Charts show up trends. Palm Oil was lower along with Chicago and in reaction to the USDA reports. The MPOB data was considered neutral. A weaker Ringitt was supportive to Palm Oil. Competing vegetable oils were also firm. The market is back talking about increased production and disappointing demand and will look to sell the rally. The exports reported so far by the private surveyors for the month are mixed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 500.00, 497.00, and 494.00 November, with resistance at 508.00, 512.00, and 513.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2300 and 2390 October. Support is at 2200, 2170, and 2130 October, with resistance at 2260, 2270, and 2300 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions much of the week with near normal temperatures, but showers likely about midweek.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August 56 September 115 September 58 September 32 November 22-Sep
September 56 September 65 September 26-Nov
October 49 December 65 December 29-Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
August 220 August
September 230 September Even Sep
October 4-Oct 100 December

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 13
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE Futures Canada

Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 480.06 dn 3.80
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 515.00 up 0.10
2 Can 502.00 up 0.10
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 530.00 up 0.10
2 Can 517.00 up 0.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 14
(Editor’s Note: This item was delayed due to technical difficulties at the source.)
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 562.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 562.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 575.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 597.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Aug 565.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 565.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 577.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 600.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 555.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 482.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,210 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 222 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.0950)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 193,052 lots, or 7.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 3,627 3,659 3,617 3,640 3,636 3,639 3 13,904 56,064
Nov-18 3,700 3,728 3,692 3,728 3,692 3,712 20 24 72
Jan-19 3,738 3,780 3,733 3,770 3,754 3,761 7 174,844 253,300
Mar-19 – – – 3,722 3,722 3,722 0 0 30
May-19 3,777 3,817 3,776 3,810 3,787 3,801 14 4,186 15,190
Jul-19 – – – 3,790 3,790 3,790 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,835 3,854 3,832 3,848 3,823 3,839 16 56 626
Nov-19 3,842 3,842 3,842 3,842 3,886 3,842 -44 2 12
Jan-20 3,850 3,904 3,828 3,889 3,861 3,859 -2 36 34
Corn
Turnover: 489,036 lots, or 9.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 1,827 1,833 1,821 1,824 1,823 1,826 3 34,118 215,550
Nov-18 1,862 1,862 1,851 1,855 1,854 1,855 1 24,526 22,296
Jan-19 1,896 1,901 1,886 1,892 1,890 1,892 2 388,650 921,824
Mar-19 1,932 1,937 1,924 1,924 1,926 1,927 1 94 3,320
May-19 1,965 1,970 1,960 1,964 1,963 1,964 1 41,046 222,098
Jul-19 1,962 1,970 1,962 1,965 1,961 1,965 4 602 3,308
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,660,802 lots, or 53.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-18 – – – 3,183 3,183 3,183 0 0 0
Sep-18 3,226 3,288 3,216 3,286 3,243 3,260 17 158,794 368,904
Nov-18 3,270 3,343 3,270 3,342 3,313 3,307 -6 115,026 189,534
Dec-18 – – – 3,270 3,250 3,270 20 0 592
Jan-19 3,208 3,264 3,196 3,260 3,226 3,241 15 1,238,714 2,135,920
Mar-19 3,072 3,120 3,072 3,110 3,090 3,106 16 366 4,128
May-19 2,911 2,949 2,906 2,941 2,930 2,935 5 144,976 634,638
Jul-19 2,851 2,890 2,851 2,874 2,882 2,874 -8 2,926 6,992
Palm Oil
Turnover: 267,482 lots, or 13.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-18 – – – 4,772 4,772 4,772 0 0 0
Sep-18 4,796 4,796 4,762 4,762 4,788 4,782 -6 22,664 81,398
Oct-18 – – – 4,794 4,794 4,794 0 0 6
Nov-18 – – – 5,000 5,000 5,000 0 0 20
Dec-18 – – – 4,962 4,968 4,962 -6 0 6
Jan-19 4,908 4,932 4,886 4,890 4,916 4,912 -4 227,990 416,256
Feb-19 – – – 4,970 4,974 4,970 -4 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 4,960 4,960 4,960 0 0 8
Apr-19 – – – 5,094 5,094 5,094 0 0 18
May-19 5,046 5,078 5,034 5,046 5,054 5,066 12 16,828 47,086
Jun-19 – – – 5,088 5,088 5,088 0 0 66
Jul-19 – – – 5,056 5,056 5,056 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 443,480 lots, or 25.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-18 – – – 5,714 5,714 5,714 0 0 0
Sep-18 5,700 5,748 5,690 5,738 5,706 5,718 12 83,320 178,372
Nov-18 – – – 5,816 5,816 5,816 0 0 30
Dec-18 – – – 5,876 5,876 5,876 0 0 16
Jan-19 5,832 5,882 5,822 5,864 5,834 5,856 22 317,412 819,120
Mar-19 – – – 5,986 5,986 5,986 0 0 110
May-19 5,814 5,862 5,798 5,832 5,816 5,832 16 42,744 171,148
Jul-19 5,820 5,876 5,820 5,876 5,804 5,848 44 4 40
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322