About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug. 14, 2018 50 Jul 26, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug. 14, 2018 33 Aug 09, 2018
SOYBEAN August Aug. 14, 2018 191 Aug 10, 2018

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report Friday
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2018 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn Production 14,586.0 14,417 14,210-14,740 14,230
Soybean Production 4,586.0 4,428 4,354-4,576 4,310
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn Yield 178.4 176.3 173.8-180.2 174.0
Soybean Yield 51.6 49.8 49.0-51.5 48.5
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2017-18
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 2,027.0 2,016 1,900-2,137 2,027
Soybeans 430.0 461 437-507 465
Wheat 1,100.0 1,099 1,080-1,100 1,100
2018-19
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 1,684.0 1,630 1,457-1,812 1,552
Soybeans 785.0 641 550-742 580
Wheat 935.0 959 813-1,018 985
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 193.3 190.8 188.0-192.6 191.7
Soybeans 95.6 95.8 92.0-97.0 96.0
Wheat 273.1 273.0 271.0-275.0 273.5
2018-19
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 155.5 152.2 146.0-158.2 152.0
Soybeans 105.9 99.3 94.0-101.7 98.3
Wheat 259.0 255.6 248.0-259.9 260.9
***
2018-19 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Friday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
All Wheat 1,877 1,850 1,700-1,900 1,881
Winter Wheat 1,189 1,181 1,050-1,201 1,193
Hard Red Winter 661 656 635-665 657
Soft Red Winter 292 303 290-322 303
White Winter 236 228 202-240 232
Other Spring 614 600 570-633 614
Durum 73 74 69-78 75

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Aug 10
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soy oil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======US====== ================WORLD==============
Ending Stocks Exports Production
18-19 17-18 16-17 : 18-19 17-18 16-17 18-19 17-18 16-17
Soybeans 785 430 302 :157.96 153.70 147.35 367.10 336.70 348.12
Brazil na na : 75.00 75.50 63.14 120.50 119.50 114.60
Argentina na na : 8.00 3.10 7.03 57.00 37.00 55.00
China na na : 0.10 0.11 0.11 14.50 14.20 12.90
Soyoil 2,066 2,171 1,711 : 11.09 10.02 11.25 57.58 54.88 53.69
Corn 1,684 2,027 2,293 :159.61 147.50 159.96 1,061.05 1,033.30 1,078.56
China na na : 0.05 0.05 0.08 225.00 215.89 219.55
Argentina na na : 27.00 24.00 25.99 41.00 33.00 41.00
S. Africa na na : 2.00 2.30 2.29 13.50 13.80 17.55
Cotton(a) 4.60 4.40 2.75 : 41.82 40.79 37.65 120.53 123.51 106.63
All Wheat 935 1,100 1,181 :183.87 182.64 183.27 729.63 758.02 751.99
China na na : 1.20 1.00 0.75 128.00 129.77 128.85
EU 27 na na : 23.00 23.50 27.43 137.50 151.68 145.37
Canada na na : 24.50 22.10 20.16 32.50 30.00 32.14
Argentina na na : 14.20 12.00 13.83 19.50 18.00 18.40
Australia na na : 16.00 15.00 22.64 22.00 21.30 31.82
Russia na na : 35.00 42.00 27.81 68.00 84.99 72.53
Ukraine na na : 16.50 17.50 18.11 25.50 26.98 26.79
Sorghum 40 44 33 : na na na
Barley 96 95 106 : na na na
Oats 41 41 50 : na na na
Rice 43.6 34.8 46.0 : 49.26 48.25 47.21 487.57 488.54 486.71

Alerts History
• 10-Aug-2018 02:26:07 PM – FARMERS ENROLLED 85.770 MLN ACRES CORN, IN U.S. CROP SUBSIDY PROGRAMS INCLUDING FAILED ACRES FOR 2018 AS OF AUG. 1 – USDA
• 10-Aug-2018 02:26:07 PM – FARMERS ENROLLED 86.954 MLN ACRES SOYBEANS, IN U.S. CROP SUBSIDY PROGRAMS INCLUDING FAILED ACRES FOR 2018 AS OF AUG. 1 – USDA
• 10-Aug-2018 02:26:07 PM – FARMERS ENROLLED 44.510 MLN ACRES WHEAT, IN U.S. CROP SUBSIDY PROGRAMS INCLUDING FAILED ACRES FOR 2018 AS OF AUG. 1 – USDA
• 10-Aug-2018 02:26:11 PM – U.S. FARMERS REPORT PREVENTED PLANTINGS OF 0.918 MLN ACRES CORN FOR 2018 AS OF AUG. 1 – USDA
• 10-Aug-2018 02:26:11 PM – U.S. FARMERS REPORT PREVENTED PLANTINGS OF 0.271 MLN ACRES SOYBEANS FOR 2018 AS OF AUG. 1 – USDA
• 10-Aug-2018 02:26:11 PM – U.S. FARMERS REPORT PREVENTED PLANTINGS OF 0.363 MLN ACRES WHEAT FOR 2018 AS OF AUG. 1 – USDA

USDA updates farmer-reported U.S crop planting totals for August – Reuters News
10-Aug-2018 02:26:11 PM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
WASHINGTON, Aug 10 (Reuters) – Farmers who participated in U.S. crop subsidy programs reported “prevented plantings” for Aug. 1, 2018 of 0.918 million acres of corn, 0.271 million acres of soybeans, 0.363 million acres of wheat, the Department of Agriculture said on Friday.
Producers enrolled in subsidy programs for Aug. 1, 2018 reported planted acreage, including failed acres, at 85.770 million of corn, 86.954 million of soybeans and 44.510 million of wheat.
Producers who enroll in several Farm Services Agency programs must submit to USDA an annual report regarding all cropland use on their farms.
USDA uses the information as an element in its crop estimates, which cover all farms, not just those who participate in the farm program.
Following are comparisons of farmer-reported plantings in Aug 2018 and Aug 2017, based on a survey of farms:
U.S. corn and soybean plantings
Prevented planting
(thousands of acres)
Crop Aug 2018 Aug 2017
Corn 918 950
Soybeans 271 437
Wheat 363 614
Rice 62 361
Barley 26 29
Sorghum 66 33
Cotton-Upland 122 116
U.S. corn and soybean plantings
Plantings
(thousands of acres)
Crop Aug 2018 Aug 2017
Corn 85,770 86,832
Soybeans 86,954 88,219
Wheat 44,510 42,761
Rice 2,882 2,421
Barley 2,283 2,353
Sorghum 4,859 4,942
Cotton-Upland 13,530 12,117

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower again on Friday in response to the USDA production and supply and demand reports that showed higher than expected world production and ending stocks.. The US data was somewhat bullish as production and ending stocks were cut. However, Spring Wheat production was left at 614 million bushels, unchanged from July and against the recent crop tour that suggested lower yields. Ending stocks were a little lower than expected at 935 million bushels. The world data showed higher stocks than projected and was the bearish figure for the market at 259 million tons. USDA kept production estimates for Europe, Russia, and Australia higher than other trade estimates. Russian and Ukrainian production estimates were increased. Ideas are that these production estimates can be lower in coming reports. The overall chart patterns are still relatively strong, but the market will need rallies in overseas markets to sustain higher prices here. Significantly lower production is expected in Europe and Russia, and world prices have been moving higher in response. However, Russian prices have become more stable lately. The potential for losses to Wheat in northern Europe continues to be reported, and some analysts now say that EU production would be the lowest in many years. The harvest continues in all areas and yields have been disappointing.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 543 and 521 September. Support is at 542, 537, and 527 September, with resistance at 552, 554, and 565 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 557 and 536 September. Support is at 553, 538, and 533 September, with resistance at 564, 578, and 586 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 607, 594, and 520 September. Support is at 600, 595, and 581 September, and resistance is at 613, 619, and 625 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 07, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 678,322
: Positions :
: 98,542 87,525 211,277 117,619 249,524 207,567 75,208 635,005 623,534: 43,317 54,788
: Changes from: July 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: 28,206) :
: 14,074 3,095 6,253 5,787 20,548 -3,241 -1,858 22,874 28,037: 5,333 169
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.5 12.9 31.1 17.3 36.8 30.6 11.1 93.6 91.9: 6.4 8.1
: Total Traders: 464 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 124 144 166 98 126 42 25 366 371:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 07, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 317,248
: Positions :
: 71,022 36,376 66,183 74,855 172,974 79,819 16,487 291,879 292,021: 25,369 25,228
: Changes from: July 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: 4,710) :
: 4,064 -4,187 -1,261 -4,704 10,396 3,466 -2,020 1,564 2,928: 3,146 1,782
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.4 11.5 20.9 23.6 54.5 25.2 5.2 92.0 92.0: 8.0 8.0
: Total Traders: 277 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 51 78 70 97 31 14 214 214:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 7, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 72,772 :
: Positions :
: 34,200 34,399 2,307 99 1,851 9,523 9,157 1,794 7,151 7,277 3,921 :
: Changes from: July 31, 2018 :
: 1,692 7,127 122 -9 91 3,413 -3,245 -109 517 1,020 -49 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 47.0 47.3 3.2 0.1 2.5 13.1 12.6 2.5 9.8 10.0 5.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 98 :
: 44 31 5 . 4 14 10 4 9 7 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 7, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 19,761 :
: Positions :
: 14,063 16,330 1,015 300 13 1,500 870 230 1,610 100 1,200 :
: Changes from: July 31, 2018 :
: -1,242 -4,670 205 -140 -262 -3,870 870 230 1,310 0 100 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 71.2 82.6 5.1 1.5 0.1 7.6 4.4 1.2 8.1 0.5 6.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 27 :
: 14 12 . . . . . . 5 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower Friday and sharply lower for the week. The funds have been selling and kept the selling pressure on despite good export sales last week and a relatively positive USDA report. USDA showed increased carry in stocks for the next crop year, but cut production from 213 million hundredweight to 210.9 million. It cut exports significantly, especially for milled long grain, so US ending stocks were a little higher at 43.6 million hundredweight. The average farm price was dropped by $0.20 per hundredweight. No changers of any significance were made to medium or short grain supply and demand estimates. World ending stocks estimates were slightly lower than last month at 143.57 million tons. It did not matter to the speculators, who have been selling Rice and are selling it again. Reports that the harvest is expanding in parts of Texas and southern Louisiana have been a reason to sell. The harvest is much more active this week in Texas and southern Louisiana and will soon spread north. Producers in Arkansas are reporting that Rice fields have a lot of grass, and this could rob some yield potential. Initial reports from Texas and Louisiana indicate good field yields.
Overnight News: The Delta should see more dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. .
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1049, 1037, and 1030 September, with resistance at 1065, 1067, and 1075 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 7, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,046 :
: Positions :
: 4,175 5,736 164 0 0 1,694 1,013 226 579 340 560 :
: Changes from: July 31, 2018 :
: -27 -338 -7 0 0 -35 52 226 -46 13 118 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 46.1 63.4 1.8 0.0 0.0 18.7 11.2 2.5 6.4 3.8 6.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 53 :
: 13 17 . 0 0 10 4 . 11 5 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower last week, with almost all the losses coming on Friday in response to the USDA reports. USDA estimated very strong yields at above 178 bushels per acre and higher than projected production at 14.586 billion bushels. Export and feed demand was increased, so ending stocks were just above trade guesses at 1.684 billion bushels. World ending stocks were higher than expected at 158.5 million tons. Production if Corn in Brazil was actually increased even through Conab cut its estimate on Thursday to 82.18 million tons, from 82.92 million in its previous estimate. The reports were considered negative to prices, but with question marks as many are not sure about the US yield potential after recent stressful weather and as the Brazil crop seems overestimated. US Corn has been stressed in some areas by too much rain and in others by dry conditions. USDA did reflect losses in Missouri, one of the driest states this year, but found record yields in some areas where only average yields have been expected. However, the strong demand potential could keep prices from falling too far. The weekly charts show that the market could have completed a double top formation. If so, further selling can be expected early this week.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 142,248 tons of Corn for 2018-19 and 71,124 tons of Corn for 2019-20
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 350 September. Support is at 356, 352, and 346 September, and resistance is at 365, 370, and 374 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 257, 255, and 250 September, and resistance is at 262, 265, and 267 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 07, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,287,244
: Positions :
: 312,811 354,668 610,435 702,438 910,995 441,749 172,464 2,067,433 2,048,562: 219,811 238,682
: Changes from: July 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: -82,736) :
: -20,472 -42,248 -15,780 -9,321 -4,176 -25,800 -22,066 -71,373 -84,271: -11,363 1,535
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.7 15.5 26.7 30.7 39.8 19.3 7.5 90.4 89.6: 9.6 10.4
: Total Traders: 953 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 221 168 260 412 431 45 28 799 786:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 7, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,708 :
: Positions :
: 1,042 2,350 217 0 0 265 328 1 1,062 208 218 :
: Changes from: July 31, 2018 :
: -352 200 -6 0 0 265 -633 1 -141 38 28 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.1 49.9 4.6 0.0 0.0 5.6 7.0 0.0 22.6 4.4 4.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 23 :
: 7 8 . 0 0 . . . 4 5 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were sharply lower on Friday in reaction to the USDA reports and were sharply lower for the week. USDA estimated yield, production, and ending stocks levels above all trade guesses. Production was estimated at 4.586 billion bushels on a national yield of 51.6 bushels per acre. Ending stocks for the coming year were estimated well above all trade estimates at 785 million bushels. World ending stocks were also above all trade guesses at 105.9 million tons. The US and Chinese governments are still looking for ways to get talks started to reduce the tariff wars and get exports flowing between the two countries again, but things seem to be going in the other direction. The Chinese appear ready to play a waiting game and the US keeps adding to the tariffs list with new and increased tariffs. Even so, the trade is increasingly optimistic that China will have to buy here in the US sooner or later. China will be forced to pay more for Brazilian supplies for now and the rest of the world will enjoy cheaper Soybeans from the US. US growing conditions have been variable, with hot and dry conditions in the east and southwest and too much rain in the north, so national yield potential could be somewhat variable. August weather will be important, and longer range forecasts call for warmer and drier weather for the month.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 142,500 tons of Soybeans
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 841 September. Support is at 848, 843, and 817 September, and resistance is at 863, 873, and 889 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 322.00 and 312.00 September. Support is at 318.00, 314.00, and 307.00 September, and resistance is at 324.00, 327.00, and 330.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2800, 2780, and 2760 September, with resistance at 2850, 2870, and 2890 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 07, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 989,374
: Positions :
: 85,647 180,053 266,501 336,212 355,673 227,568 91,323 915,927 893,550: 73,447 95,824
: Changes from: July 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: -11,411) :
: -9,093 -6,587 -5,273 12,863 2,310 -2,758 -2,223 -4,262 -11,773: -7,149 362
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.7 18.2 26.9 34.0 35.9 23.0 9.2 92.6 90.3: 7.4 9.7
: Total Traders: 705 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 173 196 229 207 238 42 26 546 575:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 07, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 552,033
: Positions :
: 72,747 157,149 139,407 180,249 198,072 119,980 23,837 512,383 518,466: 39,650 33,567
: Changes from: July 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: 9,937) :
: 2,777 3,583 13,887 731 -3,652 -7,550 -4,472 9,846 9,347: 90 590
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.2 28.5 25.3 32.7 35.9 21.7 4.3 92.8 93.9: 7.2 6.1
: Total Traders: 368 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 123 121 84 82 36 16 271 291:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of August 07, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 559,065
: Positions :
: 81,496 34,782 150,927 155,680 306,039 118,741 30,920 506,844 522,668: 52,221 36,397
: Changes from: July 31, 2018 (Change in open interest: -9,977) :
: -6,077 1,443 -1,048 1,340 -7,419 -3,337 -2,889 -9,122 -9,913: -855 -64
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.6 6.2 27.0 27.8 54.7 21.2 5.5 90.7 93.5: 9.3 6.5
: Total Traders: 322 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 46 111 104 100 34 12 282 243:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with Chicago and despite continued hot weather in the Prairies. The heat could hurt Canola yields. The charts show that futures are testing into a support area. Speculators were the best sellers despite crop production uncertainty. The crops in general look good, but August is coming and the conditions could change quickly.. Concerns about drought in parts of the western Prairies give support. Charts show up trends. Palm Oil was lower along with Chicago and in reaction to the USDA reports. The MPOB data was considered neutral. A weaker Ringitt was supportive to Palm Oil. Competing vegetable  oils were also firm. The market is back talking about increased production and disappointing demand and will look to sell the rally. The exports reported so far by the private surveyors for the month are mixed.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 287,501 tons so far this month, from 257,096 tons last month. AmSpec said exports are now 298,610 tons, from 278,048 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 500.00, 497.00, and 494.00 November, with resistance at 508.00, 512.00, and 513.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2300 and 2390 October. Support is at 2200, 2170, and 2130 October, with resistance at 2260, 2270, and 2300 October.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 7, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
MALAYSIAN PALM OIL CALENDAR SW – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037642 Open Interest is 21,360 :
: Positions :
: 18,572 14,610 544 500 202 0 920 0 1,860 4,856 164 :
: Changes from: July 31, 2018 :
: . . . . . . . . . . . :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 86.9 68.4 2.5 2.3 0.9 0.0 4.3 0.0 8.7 22.7 0.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 20 :
: 4 4 . . . 0 . 0 . 9 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 7, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 197,270 :
: Positions :
: 143,794 104,977 935 3,913 1,845 34,415 41,350 4,588 3,469 30,676 7,561 :
: Changes from: July 31, 2018 :
: 13,945 4,082 -945 1,692 -279 559 -2,176 300 -158 582 1,164 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 72.9 53.2 0.5 2.0 0.9 17.4 21.0 2.3 1.8 15.6 3.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 247 :
: 25 25 . 8 5 13 38 12 51 98 21 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

MPOB Monthly Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : Jul
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Friday, 10 Aug
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.54 mil tonnes, Up 15.9%
Exports – 1.14 mil tonnes, Up 0.9%
Ending Stocks – 2.34 mil tonnes, Up 7.0%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.50 mil tonnes, Up 12.8%
Exports – 1.21 mil tonnes, Up 6.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.21 mil tonnes, Up 1.3%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.33 mil tonnes, Down 12.6%
Exports – 1.13 mil tonnes, Down 12.6%
Ending Stocks – 2.19 mil tonnes, Up 0.8%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions much of the week with near normal temperatures, but showers likely about midweek.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August 56 September 115 September 58 September 33 November 25-Sep
September 56 September 65 September 26-Nov
October 49 December 65 December 29-Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
August
September 230 September 4-Sep
October 8-Oct 95 December

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 10
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 483.86 dn 2.00
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 514.90 dn 3.80
2 Can 501.90 dn 3.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 529.90 dn 3.80
2 Can 516.90 dn 3.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 565.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 565.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 580.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 600.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Aug 567.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 567.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 582.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 602.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 560.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 485.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,210 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 220 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.0905)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 216,666 lots, or 8.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 3,639 3,669 3,601 3,617 3,674 3,636 -38 20,366 56,352
Nov-18 3,705 3,737 3,664 3,664 3,709 3,692 -17 44 70
Jan-19 3,779 3,796 3,717 3,738 3,799 3,754 -45 192,686 247,736
Mar-19 3,737 3,737 3,666 3,666 3,764 3,722 -42 12 30
May-19 3,812 3,828 3,756 3,778 3,828 3,787 -41 3,484 15,176
Jul-19 – – – 3,790 3,790 3,790 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,853 3,853 3,794 3,818 3,853 3,823 -30 20 664
Nov-19 3,886 3,886 3,886 3,886 3,859 3,886 27 2 14
Jan-20 3,863 3,889 3,850 3,850 3,885 3,861 -24 52 40
Corn
Turnover: 849,524 lots, or 16.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 1,806 1,836 1,802 1,826 1,806 1,823 17 88,592 224,394
Nov-18 1,834 1,867 1,831 1,857 1,840 1,854 14 16,534 22,110
Jan-19 1,870 1,905 1,867 1,893 1,875 1,890 15 667,978 933,736
Mar-19 1,908 1,938 1,908 1,926 1,913 1,926 13 1,046 3,308
May-19 1,941 1,973 1,940 1,964 1,955 1,963 8 74,164 217,916
Jul-19 1,947 1,972 1,947 1,965 1,957 1,961 4 1,210 3,322
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,419,680 lots, or 77.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-18 – – – 3,183 3,183 3,183 0 0 0
Sep-18 3,290 3,303 3,195 3,228 3,291 3,243 -48 377,200 402,380
Nov-18 3,337 3,345 3,241 3,281 3,329 3,313 -16 150,488 188,984
Dec-18 3,212 3,271 3,212 3,253 3,316 3,250 -66 48 592
Jan-19 3,278 3,292 3,175 3,206 3,281 3,226 -55 1,692,594 2,110,442
Mar-19 3,147 3,150 3,043 3,080 3,136 3,090 -46 814 3,968
May-19 2,974 2,984 2,893 2,911 2,974 2,930 -44 194,482 628,682
Jul-19 2,920 2,924 2,836 2,851 2,915 2,882 -33 4,054 6,352
Palm Oil
Turnover: 339,054 lots, or 16.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-18 – – – 4,772 4,772 4,772 0 0 0
Sep-18 4,820 4,832 4,710 4,800 4,806 4,788 -18 50,886 87,794
Oct-18 – – – 4,794 4,794 4,794 0 0 6
Nov-18 – – – 5,000 5,000 5,000 0 0 20
Dec-18 – – – 4,968 4,986 4,968 -18 0 6
Jan-19 4,968 4,978 4,850 4,922 4,956 4,916 -40 277,478 434,024
Feb-19 – – – 4,974 4,976 4,974 -2 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 4,960 4,960 4,960 0 0 8
Apr-19 – – – 5,094 5,094 5,094 0 0 18
May-19 5,100 5,106 4,992 5,066 5,094 5,054 -40 10,684 50,398
Jun-19 5,088 5,090 5,088 5,090 5,102 5,088 -14 6 66
Jul-19 – – – 5,056 5,056 5,056 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 514,794 lots, or 29.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-18 – – – 5,714 5,714 5,714 0 0 0
Sep-18 5,754 5,762 5,618 5,710 5,744 5,706 -38 95,712 201,938
Nov-18 5,830 5,830 5,804 5,804 5,824 5,816 -8 4 30
Dec-18 – – – 5,876 5,884 5,876 -8 0 16
Jan-19 5,894 5,908 5,758 5,842 5,894 5,834 -60 374,904 814,516
Mar-19 5,986 5,986 5,986 5,986 6,004 5,986 -18 2 110
May-19 5,862 5,876 5,758 5,816 5,856 5,816 -40 44,170 171,294
Jul-19 5,804 5,804 5,804 5,804 5,836 5,804 -32 2 40
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322