William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
The bad news came in bunches this Spring with the tariffs & a potential record US crop coming on! The mkt reacted accordingly with a $2.30 plummet (1050-820) – but now it appears a “worst-case scenario” is dialed in as several recent tariff announcements have been met with a ho-hum reaction by the mkt – on its way to a third higher wkly close in a row!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 893,000 (500 – 750) & Thur inspections were 637,000 (450-1.2)
- CROP RATINGS – good-to-excellent surprisingly dropped to 67 from 70 –
- Helping the beans to rally today at the re-open
Ill – 75 (75) Ind- 68 (67) Iowa – 74 (77)
Blooming -92 (86) Podding – 75 (58)
- FRI 8-10-18 USDA SUPPLY & DEMAND – is widely expected to show bigger yields, production & carryout based on the pristine crop conditions this year – which continue to hover over 70% here’s a sampling of various estimates
Production – USDA July – 4.310 (FCS – 4.574 FF – 4.420 INF – 4.445)
Yield USDA July – 48.5 (FCS – 51.5 FF – 49.8 INF – 50.0)
- TARIFF RUMORS – seem to be running out of gas – the most recent “headline news” issued this week had little impact on the mkt
- AUGUST IS KEY – to bean maturation even though the bulk of the crop has already podded 10 year lows seem to be enough for bean prices – especially since much of the news is not irreversible – the crop is not necessarily a bumper crop as it’s not in yet! And trade resolution can still happen!
Don’t be confused by the fact that corn & beans are “sister markets” as their current fundamentals couldn’t be farther apart! Whereas beans US & Global Stocks will probably come in at record levels in Friday’s report from the USDA, corns world stocks/usage ratio will be the lowest in 45 years! This is primarily due to continued robust exports – stemming from the fact US Corn is the cheapest in the world – an also the global shortfall of corn & wht due to drought issues in the Black Sea, Russia, Ukraine, Canada & Australia!
FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT
- EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 1,287,000 (1.0 – 1.77) and Thur Sales were 1.278 (700 – 1.4)
- CROP RATINGS – Good-to-excellent went from 72 to 71 as expected
Ill – 81 (80) Ind – 71(69) Iowa – 75 (78)
Silking – 96 (92) Dough – 57 (37)
- USDA ON FRIDAY – the #’s are generally expected to higher off the superb crop ratings we’ve had but corn this year is the 2nd fastest maturing crop on record so that may take the high end out of the equation
Production – July USDA – 14,230 (FC – 14,562 FF – 14,360 INF – 14,392)
YIELD – July USDA – 174 (FC -178.1 FF – 175.4 INF – 176.0)
- A FAST MATURING CROP – is a double-edged sword – whereas it’s nice to see the crop in such good shape, the quickness of it reaching fruition has taken the top end off the yield
- TRADE ISSUES – seem to be on the sideline for the time being – and for that matter have never really impacted corn like they did beans
- GLOBAL STOCKS SHRINKING- the 80 cent break in Sept Corn due to the tariffs has rendered our corn price the lowest in the world – keeping our exports very solid. In addition, drought in many production areas around the world has meant lower output & therefore lower carryout! Whereas it’s not prudent to trade price, it’s hard to ignore corn is coming off 10-year lows – so when the “mkt acts good” at these levels – it’s reason to sit up & Take notice!
It’s a very simple formula that has spawned a $1.25 rally (470-595) in Sept Wht since July 10:
A bean-heavy tariff has pressured prices down to near 10 year lows –attracting new exports
- A global-wide drought has spread thru Europe, The Black Sea, Australia, India & Canada –reducing total production by 25-30 MMT
- The resulting smaller carry-out stocks has ignite prices from recent historic lows
- The just competed Spring Wht Tour revealed yields below average
Oct Cat is caught between “a rock & a hard place” –since the middle of July – trading in a tight $4.00 range (108-112) – still strong seasonal demand & a small discount to cash have been supportive. But the ongoing tariffs & the sharp drop in Oct Hogs have been weighing on the contract! The net result has been a sideways affair with several key reversals both ways eventually succumbing to the range-bound action!
The mkt with seemingly no floor continue its rapid descent today as the mkt gaped lower – even after already dropping over $20 since March 1! The main culprits??
- Punishing tariffs imposed by Mexico & China have done a serious
- “hurt dance” on our exports – which are normally 25% of our demand
- Cash belly prices have continued to weaken
- Summertime “barbeque demand” has begun to wane
- 2nd to 3rd Qtr pork production is scheduled to increase 8-10%
If any commodity desperately needs “trade resolution’, it would be the pork complex!Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337