About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

People’s Daily,China‏Verified account @PDChina 4m4 minutes ago
China will slap 25 pct tariffs on $16 billion worth of US imports starting Aug 23, said the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council on Wed, after the US announcement of imposing a similar tariff on $16 billion worth of Chinese goods from the same day.
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug. 09, 2018 531 Aug 07, 2018
SOYBEAN August Aug. 09, 2018 668 Aug 07, 2018

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018-19 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Friday.
2018-19 U.S. Wheat Production (million bushels)
Average Range USDA July USDA 2017-18
All Wheat 1,850 1,700-1,900 1,881 1,741
Winter Wheat 1,181 1,050-1,201 1,193 1,269
Hard Red Winter 656 635-665 657 750
Soft Red Winter 303 290-322 303 292
White Winter 228 202-240 232 227
Other Spring 600 570-633 614 416
Durum 74 69-78 75 55
All Winter Other
Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White Spring Durum
Advanced Market 1867 1200 662 308 230 595 72
Allendale 1853 1193 658 322 202 591 69
AgriVisor 1854 1183 655 300 228 598 73
DC Analysis 1836 1194 660 304 230 570 72
Doane 1861 1193 657 303 232 594 74
EDF Man 1852 1185 660 300 225 595 72
Farm Futures 1869 1159 635 313 210 633 78
Hueber Report 1885 1196 658 303 235 614 75
INTL FCStone 1859 1186 648 306 232 599 74
MaxYield 1750 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Northstar 1850 1193 657 290 230 590 75
Sid Love Consulting 1900 1193 657 303 232 631 77
Price Group 1862 1201 660 302 240 585 76
Prime Ag 1881 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
RJ O’Brien 1866 1195 661 301 233 599 73
RMC 1700 1050 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
US Commodities 1882 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Vantage RM 1881 1193 657 303 232 614 75
Western Milling 1834 1180 650 300 230 584 70
Zaner Ag Hedge 1863 1190 665 295 231 600 73

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. 2018 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA July USDA 2017
Corn Production 14,417 14,210-14,740 14,230 14,604
Soybean Production 4,428 4,354-4,576 4,310 4,392
Corn Yield 176.3 173.8-180.2 174.0 176.6
Soybean Yield 49.8 49.0-51.5 48.5 49.1
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
Advanced Market 14,475 177.1 4,487 50.5
AgriSource 14,351 175.5 4,443 50.0
Agrivisor 14,323 175.1 4,423 49.8
Allendale 14,441 176.6 4,452 50.1
DC Analysis 14,390 176.0 4,425 49.8
Doane 14,473 177.0 4,445 50.0
EDF Man 14,230 174.0 4,354 49.0
Farm Futures 14,362 175.4 4,422 49.8
Hueber Report 14,380 175.8 4,363 49.1
INTL FCStone 14,563 178.1 4,576 51.5
Sid Love Consultin 14,397 176.0 4,400 49.5
MaxYield 14,400 176.0 4,360 49.0
Northstar 14,683 179.5 4,445 50.0
Price Group 14,210 173.8 4,400 49.5
Prime Ag 14,397 176.0 4,401 49.5
RJ O’Brien 14,390 176.0 4,480 50.4
RMC 14,396 176.0 4,356 49.0
US Commodities 14,397 176.0 4,401 49.5
Vantage RM 14,355 175.5 4,418 49.7
Western Milling 14,397 176.0 4,445 50.0
Zaner 14,740 180.2 4,489 50.5

DJ U.S. August Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2017-18
Average Range USDA July
Corn 2,016 1,900-2,137 2,027
Soybeans 461 437-507 465
Wheat 1,099 1,080-1,100 1,100
2018-19
Average Range USDA July
Corn 1,630 1,457-1,812 1,552
Soybeans 641 550-742 580
Wheat 959 813-1,018 985
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,027 465 N/A 1,647 742 956
AgriSource 2,000 465 1,100 1,598 713 959
Agrivisor 2,052 455 1,100 1,670 680 962
Allendale 2,047 463 1,100 1,743 655 991
DC Analysis 2,002 440 N/A 1,487 621 813
Doane 1,950 445 1,100 1,650 570 945
EDF Man 2,027 465 N/A 1,552 600 950
Farm Futures 2,137 477 N/A 1,701 668 1,018
Hueber Report 2,025 470 1100 1,650 600 980
INTL FCStone 1,989 437 N/A 1,754 657 983
Sid Love Consulting 2,027 465 1,100 1,644 550 1,008
MaxYield 1,900 465 1,100 1,500 625 955
Northstar 2,027 455 1,100 1,780 680 895
Price Group 2,027 440 1,100 1,457 625 965
Prime-Ag 2,027 465 1,100 1,644 671 935
RJ O’Brien 1,987 446 N/A 1,552 651 969
RMC 2,027 465 1,080 1,560 570 985
US Commodities 2002 469 1100 1,669 637 970
Vantage RM 2,027 465 1,100 1,673 643 942
Western Milling 2,023 507 1,100 1,480 642 966
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,002 450 N/A 1,812 671 985

DJ August World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18
Average Range USDA July
Corn 190.8 188.0-192.6 191.7
Soybeans 95.8 92.0-97.0 96.0
Wheat 273.0 271.0-275.0 273.5
2018-19
Average Range USDA July
Corn 152.2 146.0-158.2 152.0
Soybeans 99.3 94.0-101.7 98.3
Wheat 255.6 248.0-259.9 260.9
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 189.5 97.0 N/A 149.2 101.0 248.0
Agrivisor 191.2 95.0 273.5 152.5 99.5 259.9
Allendale 192.6 96.1 272.9 158.2 99.4 258.5
Doane 188.0 97.0 275.0 146.0 101.0 249.0
EDF Man 192.0 96.0 N/A 152.0 99.0 255.0
Farm Futures 191.0 92.0 274.0 148.0 94.0 257.0
Hueber Report 190.5 96.5 272.5 152.0 99.0 258.0
INTL FCStone 190.4 95.2 N/A 153.7 100.2 258.8
MaxYield 192.0 96.0 271.5 154.0 96.5 256.5
Northstar 189.0 96.0 273.5 158.0 101.2 253.0
Prime-Ag 192.0 96.0 273.0 153.0 100.0 256.0
RMC 191.5 95.8 271.0 152.0 98.3 259.5
US Commodities 190.5 96.0 273.5 150.9 99.8 252.5
Western Milling 191.0 97.0 273.0 150.0 99.0 255.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 190.2 95.1 N/A 153.4 101.7 256.9

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower yesterday in correction trading. The market tone remains bullish overall as world crops are still in trouble. Wheat markets might be able to work higher in coming weeks due to the shortage of Wheat production in many exporter countries. Significantly lower production is expected in Europe and Russia, and world prices have been moving higher in response. The market moved higher in response to reports of less than expected yield potential for Spring Wheat crops in the US that was found by the recent North Dakota Wheat Tour. USDA will release new production and supply and demand estimates on Friday, and trading this week might be choppy as the market prepares for those important reports. The potential for losses to Wheat in northern Europe continues to be reported, and some analysts now say that EU production would be the lowest in about six years. The harvest continues in southern areas and yields have been disappointing. A downgrade in production for European Wheat is likely in coming months, and comes on the back of earlier downgrades.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains mostly dry conditions again, but some showers are expected tomorrow. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 595 September. Support is at 564, 554, and 552 September, with resistance at 578, 583, and 586 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 577, 564, and 553 September, with resistance at 587, 593, and 597 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 619, 612, and 600 September, and resistance is at 635, 639, and 644 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower again on reports of increasing harvest activity and a lack of commercial or fund buying interest. Futures have blown through swing targets for the move and are now oversold Reports that the harvest is underway in parts of Texas and southern Louisiana are bearish. The harvests in these states are now at least a third complete and yields are reported to be good to very good. The harvest is much more active this week in Texas and southern Louisiana and will soon spread north. Good crop condition ratings and increased planted area this year have the traders looking for a good production. USDA said last month demand should also improve in the coming year and ending stocks could remain tight. The crop progress is being pushed by the hot weather in many areas. That could mean less yield, but for now the crops in general look good.
Overnight News: The Delta should see showers from Wednesday to Friday, then more dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. .
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1080, 1067, and 1049 September, with resistance at 1109, 1119, and 1128 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Aug 8
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.31 9.86 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.98 10.05 0.00
Brokens 9.23 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday in correction trading. Ideas that feed grains production in Europe is getting hurt by the hot and dry weather there continue to support stronger demand ideas here. Demand for US Corn is expected to hold very strong in both the export and domestic markets. The trade is starting to look ahead to the next production and supply and demand reports that will be released on Friday. The reports are expected to show strong yield potential, but yield estimates have moderated due to some of the weather seen recently. Price Group thinks the crop is very strong, but forecasts yields at 173.8 bushels per acre. That would leave overall production at or just below the current USDA estimates. USDA kept the crop ratings at just one point lower in the good to excellent side on Monday night and once again showed that the crop is moving quickly to maturity. Demand for US Corn is said to be strong. Ethanol demand remains very strong. The US will remain dominant in the Corn market due to problems with feed grains production in Europe and Russia now and in South America previously.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 377 September. Support is at 364, 360, and 358 September, and resistance is at 374, 376, and 379 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 250, 245, and 240 September, and resistance is at 262, 263, and 267 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher on some talk that the US and China are making headway in negotiations. Weaker Chinese demand should remain a feature until something concrete is done.. The Chinese press noted that the country could cut demand from all sources by at lest 10 million tons as it deals with the fallout of the Trump sanctions and its own weakening economy. The US and Chinese governments are still looking for ways to get talks started to reduce the tariff wars and get exports flowing between the two countries again, but so far Trump and the US appear to be looking for total capitulation from the Chinese, and the Chinese are indicating that total capitulation will never happen. Soybeans would be a primary beneficiary of reduced tariffs, and prices could sink more if no resolution to the tariff wars is found. USDA will issue its first field based survey for production and the estimate is expected to be high. US growing conditions have been variable, with hot and dry conditions in the east and southwest and too much rain in the north, so national yield potential could be somewhat variable. August weather will be important, and longer range forecasts call for warmer and drier weather for the month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 959 and 1032 September. Support is at 873, 868, and 863 September, and resistance is at 909, 912, and 926 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 327.00, 324.00, and 318.00 September, and resistance is at 337.00, 341.00, and 344.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2820, 2800, and 2780 September, with resistance at 2900, 2920, and 2960 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher along with Chicago. The charts show that futures are testing into a support area. Speculators were the best sellers despite crop production uncertainty. The crops in general look good, but August is coming and the conditions could change quickly.. Concerns about drought in parts of the western Prairies give support. Charts show up trends.. Palm Oil was higher again on currency considerations and price strength in other vegetable oils. A weaker Ringitt was supportive to Palm Oil. Competing vegetable oils were also firm. The market is back talking about increased production and disappointing demand and will look to sell the rally. The exports reported so far by the private surveyors for the month are mixed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 518.00 and 540.00 November. Support is at 497.00, 494.00, and 490.00 November, with resistance at 503.00, 505.00, and 507.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2200, 2170, and 2100 October, with resistance at 2250, 2270, and 2390 October.

Trade Estimates for the monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Reports:
Observation period : Jul
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Friday, 10 Aug
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.54 mil tonnes, Up 15.9%
Exports – 1.14 mil tonnes, Up 0.9%
Ending Stocks – 2.34 mil tonnes, Up 7.0%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.33 mil tonnes, Down 12.6%
Exports – 1.13 mil tonnes, Down 12.6%
Ending Stocks – 2.19 mil tonnes, Up 0.8%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions through the weekend with near to below normal temperatures. Some showers are possible today in the north and tomorrow in the south.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August 56 September 120 September 58 September 32 November 26-Sep
September 58 September 65 September 24-Nov
October 50 December 65 December 30-Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
August 220 August
September 230 September 4-Sep
October 7-Oct 95 December

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 7
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 469.16 dn 2.00
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 512.60 up 8.60
2 Can 499.60 up 8.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 532.60 up 8.60
2 Can 519.60 up 8.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 570.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 572.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 587.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 607.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Aug 572.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 575.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 590.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 610.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 570.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 495.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,240 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 220 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.0740)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 371,590 lots, or 13.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 3,550 3,688 3,531 3,654 3,535 3,592 57 58,052 78,220
Nov-18 3,609 3,650 3,609 3,650 3,609 3,616 7 36 42
Jan-19 3,654 3,819 3,645 3,789 3,645 3,721 76 306,846 242,240
Mar-19 – – – 3,680 3,670 3,680 10 0 22
May-19 3,731 3,846 3,725 3,818 3,726 3,776 50 6,522 12,792
Jul-19 3,790 3,790 3,790 3,790 3,706 3,790 84 2 8
Sep-19 3,760 3,865 3,755 3,853 3,765 3,787 22 122 656
Nov-19 3,776 3,776 3,776 3,776 3,779 3,776 -3 2 14
Jan-20 3,799 3,860 3,799 3,860 3,812 3,830 18 8 32
Corn
Turnover: 888,116 lots, or 16.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 1,791 1,816 1,790 1,811 1,793 1,803 10 104,934 245,100
Nov-18 1,832 1,859 1,831 1,852 1,835 1,848 13 21,032 23,676
Jan-19 1,871 1,897 1,866 1,888 1,870 1,882 12 692,832 852,736
Mar-19 1,904 1,930 1,903 1,924 1,907 1,918 11 1,228 3,312
May-19 1,946 1,971 1,943 1,963 1,948 1,957 9 66,070 205,718
Jul-19 1,953 1,972 1,952 1,964 1,955 1,961 6 2,020 3,202
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,625,250 lots, or 84.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-18 – – – 3,183 3,183 3,183 0 0 0
Sep-18 3,197 3,286 3,184 3,270 3,183 3,222 39 389,142 711,224
Nov-18 3,245 3,342 3,238 3,326 3,238 3,263 25 171,040 205,176
Dec-18 3,264 3,316 3,221 3,316 3,219 3,249 30 384 554
Jan-19 3,223 3,302 3,208 3,289 3,211 3,246 35 1,881,458 2,107,088
Mar-19 3,093 3,152 3,083 3,150 3,084 3,116 32 1,656 3,928
May-19 2,935 2,994 2,921 2,979 2,923 2,948 25 179,982 581,342
Jul-19 2,910 2,974 2,910 2,958 2,909 2,931 22 1,588 2,578
Palm Oil
Turnover: 297,460 lots, or 14.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-18 – – – 4,772 4,772 4,772 0 0 0
Sep-18 4,750 4,778 4,746 4,764 4,742 4,760 18 35,470 123,298
Oct-18 – – – 4,794 4,794 4,794 0 0 6
Nov-18 – – – 5,000 5,000 5,000 0 0 20
Dec-18 – – – 4,904 4,904 4,904 0 0 6
Jan-19 4,926 4,942 4,906 4,928 4,898 4,922 24 256,516 438,100
Feb-19 – – – 4,942 4,942 4,942 0 0 4
Mar-19 4,950 4,950 4,950 4,950 4,930 4,950 20 2 8
Apr-19 5,058 5,076 5,058 5,076 5,014 5,070 56 34 20
May-19 5,054 5,086 5,046 5,068 5,040 5,064 24 5,414 46,108
Jun-19 5,104 5,104 5,088 5,088 5,120 5,092 -28 24 64
Jul-19 – – – 5,056 5,056 5,056 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 435,564 lots, or 25.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-18 – – – 5,714 5,714 5,714 0 0 0
Sep-18 5,680 5,718 5,670 5,702 5,670 5,690 20 73,190 297,506
Nov-18 – – – 5,790 5,790 5,790 0 0 46
Dec-18 – – – 5,884 5,884 5,884 0 0 16
Jan-19 5,886 5,910 5,854 5,888 5,860 5,880 20 331,110 755,500
Mar-19 – – – 5,904 5,904 5,904 0 0 108
May-19 5,866 5,888 5,844 5,872 5,842 5,864 22 31,264 152,030
Jul-19 – – – 5,822 5,822 5,822 0 0 38
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322