About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower on Friday and a little lower for the week. Speculators were liquidating some long positions after the market failed to hold a move to new highs. The export sales for the coming marketing year were very good, but the trade had hoped for bigger sales. USDA once again showed average progress and some improvement in condition in its weekly crop updates released on Monday, and some traders have turned more bearish due to the improved condition ratings. The ratings should be stable this week. Conditions remain generally unfavorable in Texas, but are generally good in the Delta and Southeast. The weather is improving in India and China as monsoon rains are reported in India and as China has been dry. The monsoon has active in southern and central India and rains are now reported in northwest India and Pakistan. Trends remain generally up on the daily and weekly charts.
Overnight News: The Delta will be mostly dry into next week and the Southeast will get drier weather starting today. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be very warm. The USDA average price is now 84.88 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 20,308 bales, from 20,308 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 9000, 9040, and 9380 December. Support is at 8770, 8720, and 8680 December, with resistance of 8930, 9000, and 9120 December.

DJ U.S. June Cotton Exports-Aug 3
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jun 18 May 18 Apr 18 Jun 17(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 17,901,289 25,684,587 20,321,427 4,904,768
1 to 1 1/8 inch 120,683,637 151,338,680 167,507,050 87,567,339
upland 1 1/8 and over 163,724,035 246,435,499 279,690,549 163,852,611
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 8,595,384 9,622,524 11,155,466 6,999,298
All cotton 310,904,345 433,081,290 478,674,492 263,324,016
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Jun 18 May 18 Apr 18 Jun 17(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 82,220 117,968 93,336 22,527
1 to 1 1/8 inch 554,295 695,093 769,354 402,194
upland 1 1/8 and over 751,978 1,131,869 1,284,608 752,569
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 39,478 44,196 51,237 32,148
All cotton 1,427,972 1,989,126 2,198,534 1,209,437

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 367,389
: Positions :
: 95,287 6,794 78,252 74,416 254,332 100,632 17,553 348,587 356,931: 18,802 10,458
: Changes from: July 24, 2018 (Change in open interest: 17,634) :
: 9,043 -1,019 4,847 4,385 16,152 -1,687 -1,695 16,588 18,285: 1,046 -651
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 25.9 1.8 21.3 20.3 69.2 27.4 4.8 94.9 97.2: 5.1 2.8
: Total Traders: 325 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 152 40 89 62 74 46 18 292 195:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was higher on Friday and higher for the week. The daily charts are now showing a very short-term trading range. Short term trends are mixed and the harvest is now about over. Traders are concentrating on the development of the new crop and the weak demand for the old crop. Overall growing conditions in Florida are good to very good, and there is no storm development in the Atlantic at this time. Th estate is getting frequent periods of showers. Florida producers are seeing good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used when needed, and producers expect a good crop. A good crop now will likely mean increasing inventories of frozen concentrate. Weaker demand has caused FCOJ inventories in Florida to increase on a year to year basis.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 165.00, 163.00, and 160.00 September, with resistance at 170.00, 172.00, and 175.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 18,274 :
: Positions :
: 5,710 13,434 1,123 103 0 6,211 240 72 387 950 2,127 :
: Changes from: July 24, 2018 :
: 154 -28 -63 4 0 -24 -9 0 -190 -146 126 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 31.2 73.5 6.1 0.6 0.0 34.0 1.3 0.4 2.1 5.2 11.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 73
: 19 19 4 . 0 21 . . 8 10 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments Futures were higher in New York and a little higher in London on Friday. Price action in New York is bad and trends have turned back to down. Ideas of strong production in Brazil and Vietnam are keeping futures under selling pressure. Arabica trees in Brazil were starting to show stress due to the lack of rain over the last few months. It will be dry again for the rest of the week. The months leading up to the Winter were also dry, and that early dryness is affecting trees now. It is very possible that some production could be for next crop. Estimates for production this year range as high as 60 million bags. Central American is also dry in some areas and production losses are increasingly expected. London remains relatively strong as Vietnamese production is not moving. There is not much Robusta on offer in the world markets right now even though supplies in storage in Europe are very high. It has been dry in Vietnam, but.better rains are reported to be improving crop conditions now and production estimates are very high at about 30 million bas. Domestic prices have been trending lower in the last week despite very light farm selling.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.060 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 104.80 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with a few showers possible on Monday. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 106.00, 103.00, and 100.00 September, and resistance is at 110.00, 115.00 and 118.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1630, 1610, and 1580 September, and resistance is at 1680, 1710, and 1720 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 389,722
: Positions :
: 38,830 127,454 107,315 148,613 117,564 76,323 29,083 371,081 381,415: 18,641 8,307
: Changes from: July 24, 2018 (Change in open interest: 6,660) :
: 1,338 948 7,284 2,544 2,736 -4,366 -3,791 6,800 7,176: -140 -516
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.0 32.7 27.5 38.1 30.2 19.6 7.5 95.2 97.9: 4.8 2.1
: Total Traders: 570 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 197 159 180 137 115 45 28 465 411:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/31/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
152,029 96,628 65,151 10,168 7,601 2,619
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 63.6% 42.9% 6.7% 5.0% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
165 58 47 14 6 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
10,144 44,113 12,130 788 1,175 13,293
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.7% 29.0% 8.0% 0.5% 0.8% 8.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
13 41 20 10 10 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,258 5,948
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.1% 3.9%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were higher on follow through buying. New York closed with slight losses for the week after making new lows for the move. The reversal trade on Thursday implies that futures can move higher in both markets again today. New York price action overall is weak as futures are still near the recent lows. Ideas of big world production are bearish Dry conditions continue in Brazil, the EU, and Russia. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand and India. Brazil producers are also worried about Cane production even with the rapid early harvest, and the market is now starting to talk about less production there this year. The dry weather in much of Europe and in southern Russia near the Black Sea has hurt Sugar beets production potential in these areas. Recent rains in parts of Ukraine have improved production prospects there. Growing conditions are considered good in both India and Thailand due to the active monsoon.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1040 and 990 October. Support is at 1070, 1040, and 1030 October, and resistance is at 1110, 1140, and 1160 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 319.00, 311.00, and 308.00 October, and resistance is at 330.00, 336.00, and 340.00 October.

DJ Brazil Dry Weather Limits Sugar Output in North, Northeast — Market Talk
09:43 ET – Dry weather in Brazil’s northern and northeastern states will limit gains in sugarcane production this year, according to analysts at INTL FCStone. The company is forecasting sugar mills in the region will process 46.5M metric tons of cane in the 2018-2019 season. Farmers in the region had planted more cane for this season, and that along with good weather at the start of the season had boosted expectations for a larger cane crop in the area, INTL FCStone said. A lack of rain since May means that, though the crop will still be bigger than the two previous seasons, it will be smaller than previously forecast.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,172,924
: Positions :
: 143,342 284,272 246,782 333,969 458,252 362,635 104,174 1,086,729 1,093,480: 86,195 79,444
: Changes from: July 24, 2018 (Change in open interest: 70,321) :
: -9,556 22,138 36,251 41,670 3,762 -412 2,459 67,953 64,610: 2,368 5,712
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.2 24.2 21.0 28.5 39.1 30.9 8.9 92.7 93.2: 7.3 6.8
: Total Traders: 269 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 54 83 78 78 73 35 22 214 213:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/31/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
102,073 39,701 68,104 20,900 1,964 766
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 38.9% 66.7% 20.5% 1.9% 0.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
151 47 59 13 5 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
22,727 15,615 7,200 4,121 1,967 2,064
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.3% 15.3% 7.1% 4.0% 1.9% 2.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
22 20 19 7 10 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,594 4,392
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.5% 4.3%

COCOA
General Comments futures lower in both markets on Friday. Ideas of big world production have kept futures on the defensive. Trends on both markets are down and there does not seem to be much buying interest from industry for now. The outlook for strong production in the coming year has been enough to keep the prices weak. The main crop harvest is in its earliest stages in some parts of West Africa. Main crop production ideas for Ivory Coast are still near 2.0 million tons even with the big rains. Ideas that current weather conditions are good for the next crops in West Africa continue. There have been reports of good rains throughout the region and big yields are possible. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.612 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1940 September, with resistance at 2120, 2200, and 2240 September. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1510, 1480, and 1450 September, with resistance at 1550, 1600, and 1650 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 31, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 302,604
: Positions :
: 44,335 40,211 62,383 122,620 163,419 61,121 26,674 290,459 292,687: 12,145 9,917
: Changes from: July 24, 2018 (Change in open interest: 12,131) :
: -2,712 2,342 5,737 8,678 -2,952 -253 4,940 11,450 10,067: 680 2,063
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.7 13.3 20.6 40.5 54.0 20.2 8.8 96.0 96.7: 4.0 3.3
: Total Traders: 229 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 62 79 46 40 31 19 187 170:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/31/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
291,847 152,486 206,528 35,572 15,878 15,701
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 52.2% 70.8% 12.2% 5.4% 5.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
164 52 47 17 7 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
35,982 3,438 20,852 1,826 1,388 25,018
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.3% 1.2% 7.1% 0.6% 0.5% 8.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
33 13 14 11 12 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,410 3,045
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.5% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322