Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. June Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Aug 3
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jun 2018—- —-May 2018—-
-coffee kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 116,682,116 257,284,066 134,521,017 296,618,842
coffee, roasted 6,381,332 14,070,837 6,981,332 15,393,837
instant 2,757,406 6,080,080 4,209,528 9,282,009
cocoa beans 17,249,305 38,034,718 38,311,296 84,476,408
10 lbs or over 2,640,048 5,821,306 2,683,952 5,918,114
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 7,130,923 15,723,685 9,435,519 20,805,319
not defatted 2,185,766 4,819,614 2,092,487 4,613,934
defatted 5,172,947 11,406,348 2,850,468 6,285,282
unsweetened 8,600,051 18,963,112 7,748,136 17,084,640
sweetened 47,005 103,646 49,112 108,292
coating 2,963,225 6,533,911 3,112,154 6,862,300
chocolate 10,999,885 24,254,746 9,151,078 20,178,127
General Comments: Cotton was higher on better export sales and as the weather in Texas remains dry. The export sales for the coming marketing year were very good. USDA once again showed average progress and some improvement in condition in its weekly crop updates released on Monday, and some traders have turned more bearish due to the improved condition ratings. Conditions remain generally unfavorable in Texas, but are generally good in the Delta and Southeast. The weather is improving in India and China as monsoon rains are reported in India and as China has been dry. The monsoon has active in southern and central India and rains are now reported in northwest India and Pakistan. Trends remain generally up on the daily and weekly charts.
Overnight News: The Delta will be mostly dry into next week and the Southeast will get drier weather starting today. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be variable. The USDA average price is now 85.65 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 20,308 bales, from 20,308 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 9000, 9040, and 9380 December. Support is at 8770, 8720, and 8610 December, with resistance of 8930, 9000, and 9120 December.
General Comments: FCOJ was lower and gave back much of the gains from Wednesday. The daily charts are now showing a very short-term trading range. Short term trends are mixed and the harvest is now about over. Traders are concentrating on the development of the new crop and the weak demand for the old crop. Overall growing conditions in Florida are good to very good, and there is no storm development in the Atlantic at this time. Th estate is getting frequent periods of showers. Florida producers are seeing good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used when needed, and producers expect a good crop. A good crop now will likely mean increasing inventories of frozen concentrate. Weaker demand has caused FCOJ inventories in Florida to increase on a year to year basis.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 165.00, 163.00, and 160.00 September, with resistance at 170.00, 172.00, and 175.00 September.
General Comments Futures were lower in New York and a little lower in London yesterday. Price action in New York is bad and trends have turned back to down. Ideas of strong production in Brazil and Vietnam are keeping futures under selling pressure. Arabica trees in Brazil were starting to show stress due to the lack of rain over the last few months. It will be dry again for the rest of the week. The months leading up to the Winter were also dry, and that early dryness is affecting trees now. It is very possible that some production could be for next crop. Estimates for production this year range as high as 60 million bags. Central American is also dry in some areas and production losses are increasingly expected. London remains relatively strong as Vietnamese production is not moving. There is not much Robusta on offer in the world markets right now even though supplies in storage in Europe are very high. It has been dry in Vietnam, but.better rains are reported to be improving crop conditions now and production estimates are very high at about 30 million bas. Domestic prices have been trending lower in the last week despite very light farm selling.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.060 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 104.80 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions with a few showers possible on Friday and again on Monday. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 106.00, 103.00, and 100.00 September, and resistance is at 110.00, 115.00 and 118.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1630, 1610, and 1580 September, and resistance is at 1680, 1710, and 1720 September.
General Comments: Futures were higher and put in a reversal move. The reversal implies that futures can move higher in both markets again today. New York price action overall is weak as futures are still near the recent lows. Ideas of big world production are bearish Dry conditions continue in Brazil, the EU, and Russia. Very good conditions are reported in Thailand and India. Brazil producers are also worried about Cane production even with the rapid early harvest, and the market is now starting to talk about less production there this year. The dry weather in much of Europe and in southern Russia near the Black Sea has hurt Sugar beets production potential in these áreas. Recent rains in parts of Ukraine have improved production prospects there. Growing conditions are considered good in both India and Thailand due to the active monsoon.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather, but a few showers are possible on Friday. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1040 and 990 October. Support is at 1030, 1000, and 970 October, and resistance is at 1090, 1110, and 1140 October. Trends in London are down with objectives of 311.00 and 299.00 October. Support is at 311.00, 308.00, and 305.00 October, and resistance is at 323.00, 325.00, and 330.00 October.
General Comments futures were slightly higher in both New York and London on what appeared to be some speculative short covering. Ideas of big world production have kept futures on the defensive. Trends on both markets are down and there does not seem to be much buying interest from industry for now. The outlook for strong production in the coming year has been enough to keep the prices weak. The main crop harvest is in its earliest stages in some parts of West Africa. Main crop production ideas for Ivory Coast are still near 2.0 million tons even with the big rains. Ideas that current weather conditions are good for the next crops in West Africa continue. There have been reports of good rains throughout the region and big yields are possible. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.633 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2050 September. Support is at 2050, 1990, and 1960 September, with resistance at 2120, 2200, and 2240 September. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1510, 1480, and 1450 September, with resistance at 1600, 1650, and 1670 September.