About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug. 06, 2018 919 Aug 02, 2018
SOYBEAN August Aug. 06, 2018 867 Aug 02, 2018

DJ U.S. June Grain Imports-Aug 3
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Jun 2018—- —-May 2018—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 2,876,022 6,341,629 465,471 1,026,364
spring wheat 23,662,670 52,176,187 21,538,414 47,492,203
winter wheat 11,870,696 26,174,885 5,661,005 12,482,516
wheat/meslin 62,909,643 138,715,763 40,533,248 89,375,812
TOTAL WHEAT 101,319,031 223,408,463 68,198,138 150,376,894
barley 2,651,387 5,846,308 9,461,222 20,861,995
oats 529,625 1,167,823 973,220 2,145,950
corn 38,696,049 85,324,788 32,647,078 71,986,807
other corn 17,282,479 38,107,866 8,632,822 19,035,373
TOTAL CORN 55,978,528 123,432,654 41,279,900 91,022,180

DJ U.S. Jun Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Aug 3
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Jun 2018—- —-May 2018—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 32,204,752 71,011,478 48,930,321 107,891,358
palm kernel oil 17,851,383 39,362,300 24,660,493 54,376,387
palm oil 86,487,323 190,704,547 144,861,605 319,419,839
soybean 36,133,397 79,674,140 35,563,893 78,418,384
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 14,436,501 31,832,485 15,480,911 34,135,409
rapeseed oil
edible 153,233,218 337,879,246 136,929,842 301,930,302
rapeseed oil,
inedible 2,726 6,011 34,689 76,489

DJ U.S. June Grain Exports-Aug 3
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jun 18 May 18 Apr 18 Jun 17(*)
Barley 4,405,893 2,086,948 1,519,432 4,775,910
Corn /1 7,117,203,000 7,869,046,000 7,712,105,000 4,926,909,000
Sorghum 42,928,000 91,361,000 787,437,000 223,240,000
Oats 3,467,741 1,998,101 2,537,527 3,907,223
Rye 466,347 426,000 72,000 1,306,164
Wheat /1 1,530,732,133 1,826,033,449 1,942,027,188 3,031,016,650
wheat flour /1 26,840,290 26,568,671 21,109,039 28,760,221
Malt 35,792,491 39,241,068 37,454,319 45,763,609
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Jun 18 May 18 Apr 18 Jun 17(*)
Barley 202,359 95,852 69,786 219,354
Corn /1 280,189,030 309,787,478 303,609,047 193,961,849
Sorghum 1,689,983 3,596,687 30,999,707 8,788,480
Oats 238,906 137,657 174,820 269,183
Rye 18,359 16,771 2,834 51,421
Wheat /1 56,244,200 67,094,555 71,356,552 111,369,654
wheat flour /1 591,727 585,739 465,375 634,054
Malt 78,908,949 86,511,761 82,572,653 100,891,505
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. June Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Aug 3
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Jun 18 May 18 Apr 18 Jun 17(*)
soybeans 3,256,177,059 2,990,804,780 2,167,385,571 1,795,507,919
soyoil 103,568,034 195,695,908 96,322,199 62,725,009
crude 86,703,348 171,049,084 74,547,873 47,928,651
refined 94,936 578,273 133,339 321,080
other/1 16,432,424 23,792,737 21,357,712 14,094,006
hydrogenated 337,326 275,814 283,275 381,272
cottonseed oil 3,165,861 3,460,433 3,083,000 2,660,474
crude 127,789 21,928 51,938 13,443
refined 1,831,602 2,451,026 1,426,262 2,254,881
other/1 1,206,470 987,479 1,604,800 358,042
hydrogenated 0 0 0 34,108
sunseeds 2,969,385 297,129 202,581 4,054,373
sunseed oil 3,338,918 4,451,100 3,427,791 3,260,949
rapeseed 12,580,113 9,609,423 11,986,959 7,375,383
rapeseed oil 9,117,152 6,517,150 11,131,787 5,895,896
crude 4,741,503 2,539,610 6,945,909 814,657
refined 4,375,649 3,977,540 4,185,878 5,081,239
linseed meal 260,211 202,500 199,807 346,360
cottonseed meal 14,534,737 7,651,232 10,272,793 8,755,521
soymeal 1,031,863,484 931,728,038 939,851,833 612,308,227
soymeal/flour 297,795,951 265,184,355 252,977,286 145,922,198
soymeal hulls 13,275,000 14,865,000 12,332,000 13,986,000
lard 1,311,315 1,152,981 1,683,218 1,384,018
edible tallow 8,877,623 10,826,524 12,215,621 5,066,843
inedible tallow 23,001,093 26,948,754 31,923,007 27,432,741
ch white grease 8,033 320,147 8,033 18,128
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Jun 18 May 18 Apr 18 Jun 17(*)
soybeans 119,642,798 109,892,136 79,636,970 65,972,945
soyoil 228,328,470 431,435,700 212,354,135 138,284,998
crude 191,148,195 377,098,745 164,349,955 105,664,606
refined 209,298 1,274,874 293,962 707,860
other/1 36,227,300 52,454,015 47,085,703 31,071,970
hydrogenated 743,677 608,066 624,515 840,561
cottonseed oil 6,979,530 7,628,950 6,796,853 5,865,342
crude 281,727 48,343 114,504 29,637
refined 4,037,992 5,403,588 3,144,370 4,971,163
other/1 2,659,812 2,177,019 3,537,979 789,348
hydrogenated 0 0 0 75,195
sunseeds 6,546,374 655,057 446,615 8,938,364
sunseed oil 7,361,055 9,812,997 7,556,987 7,189,163
rapeseed 27,734,406 21,185,155 26,426,726 16,259,939
rapeseed oil 20,099,883 14,367,859 24,541,394 12,998,228
crude 10,453,227 5,598,883 15,313,111 1,796,012
refined 9,646,656 8,768,976 9,228,283 11,202,216
linseed meal 287 223 220 382
cottonseed meal 16,022 8,434 11,324 9,651
soymeal 1,137,423 1,027,044 1,035,999 674,947
soymeal flour/me 328,260 292,313 278,857 160,850
soymeal hulls 14,633 16,386 13,594 15,417
lard 2,890,955 2,541,888 3,710,861 3,051,238
edible tallow 19,571,812 23,868,404 26,930,839 11,170,479
inedible tallow 50,708,739 59,411,843 70,378,195 60,478,852
ch white grease 17,710 705,803 17,710 39,965

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were higher again yesterday as world crops are in trouble. The market moved to new highs and new multi-year highs on talk that Ukraine might put a limit on exports, but fell away when the talk was denied. The Agriculture Ministry there plans to meet with exporters about targets but has no plans at this time to enforce any limits. Significantly lower production is expected in Europe and Russia, and world prices have been moving higher. The market moved higher in response to reports of less than expected yield potential for Spring Wheat crops in the US. USDA showed more deterioration in the Spring Wheat crop again Monday night as the crop is starting to be harvested. The potential for losses to Wheat in northern Europe continues to be reported, and some analysts now say that EU production would be the lowest in about six years. The harvest continues in southern areas and yields have been disappointing. A downgrade in production for European Wheat is likely in coming months, and comes on the back of earlier downgrades.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains mostly dry conditions again. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers today and tomorrow, then drier weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal this weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 595 September. Support is at 551, 542, and 537 September, with resistance at 566, 571, and 574 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 553, 538, and 533 September, with resistance at 575, 580, and 586 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives. Support is at 595, 581, and 573 September, and resistance is at 614, 620, and 626 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower yesterday on weaker than expected export sales. Sales were very bad for the current year and not much better for the next marketing year that starts at the beginning of next month. Reports that the harvest is underway in parts of Texas and southern Louisiana are bearish. The market has been strong, but has now started new down trends for at least the short-term. The harvest is much more active this week in Texas and southern Louisiana and will soon spread north. Good crop condition ratings and increased planted area this year have the traders looking for a good production. USDA said last month demand should also improve in the coming year and ending stocks could remain tight. The crop progress is being pushed by the hot weather in many areas. That could mean less yield, but for now the crops in general look good.
Overnight News: The Delta should see more dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1144 and 1103 September. Support is at 1152, 1149, and 1125 September, with resistance at 1171, 1174, and 1177 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher yesterday on ideas that Feed grains production in Europe is getting hurt by the hot and dry weather there. The trade is starting to look ahead to the next production and supply and demand reports that will be released one week from today. USDA kept the crop ratings about unchanged on Monday night and once again showed that the crop is moving quickly to maturity. Stable to slightly lower conditions are possible again on Monday. Conditions in general looked very good in our weekend survey, although the ground was starting to crack from a lack of rain in some fields. The crops were in milk to early dent stages of development, and this is much ahead of normal. Producers have said that the weather has been variable enough to think that the yields might be trimmed a bit. A national yield near 174 bushels per acre is possible given the weather until now. Demand for US Corn is said to be strong. Ethanol demand remains very strong. The US will remain dominant in the Corn market due to problems with Feed grains production in Europe and Russia now and in South America before.
Overnight News: Vietnam bought 130,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 377 September. Support is at 364, 360, and 358 September, and resistance is at 374, 376, and 379 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 248 September. Support is at 238, 235, and 232 September, and resistance is at 244, 245, and 247 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower on follow through selling tied to news that the Trump administration is ready to increase tariffs on all $250 million Chinese imports to about 25%. The weekly export sales report was considered a disappointment in terms of volume and that added to selling pressure. The US and Chinese governments are still looking for ways to get talks started to reduce the tariff wars and get exports flowing between the two countries again. Soybeans would be a primary beneficiary of reduced tariffs, and prices could sink more if no resolution to the tariff wars is found. There is no deal on the table, just conversations on where to take any formal negotiations. The threat of increased tariffs by the US would probably make finding a deal that much more difficult. Illinois,Soybeans look great and a very big crop is possible. Growth has been good, and crops look uniform and with good color. There was some variability in the Eastern part of the state due to excessive rains at planting time. Good weather through August should produce a very big crop in most of the fields we saw. US growing conditions have been variable, with hot and dry conditions in the east and southwest and too much rain in the north, so national yield potential could be somewhat variable. August weather will be important, and longer range forecasts call for warmer and drier wather for the month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 959 and 1032 September. Support is at 876, 868, and 863 September, and resistance is at 893, 909, and 912 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 329.00, 328.00, and 324.00 September, and resistance is at 337.00, 341.00, and 344.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2800, 2780, and 2760 September, with resistance at 2860, 2900, and 2920 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mostly a little lower along with Chicago. Only November closed slightly higher after a choppy session. Speculators were the best sellers despite crop production uncertainty. The crops in general look good, but August is coming and the conditions could change quickly.. Concerns about drought in parts of the western Prairies give support. Charts show up trends.. Palm Oil was a little higher on currency considerations. Competing vegetable oils were also firm. The market is back talking about increased production and disappointing demand and will look to sell the rally. The exports reported so far by the private surveyors for the month are mixed.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 518.00 and 540.00 November. Support is at 490.00, 485.00, and 484.00 November, with resistance at 500.00, 503.00, and 505.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2130 and 2070 October. Support is at 2170, 2130, and 2100 October, with resistance at 2230, 2250, and 2270 October.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Aug 3
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended July 31, 2018. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This week 2364.2 635.2 164.1 221.3 72.5 835.0 267.2 129.5 5217.3
Week ago 2270.2 689.8 179.7 223.3 92.8 920.3 239.9 161.0 5261.7
Year ago 2973.4 784.5 124.4 290.6 67.0 736.3 130.6 113.3 5511.5
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 557.3 143.0 43.0 46.0 12.7 342.6 32.5 19.1 1274.8
Week Ago 376.7 123.5 46.1 37.5 10.7 263.0 23.6 14.4 944.7
To Date 18664.7 4139.5 2178.8 3066.0 490.8 18992.0 2927.0 668.0 55245.1
Year Ago 18601.4 5165.6 1840.5 2810.0 389.3 19666.9 3946.9 421.2 56886.8
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 527.1 93.2 24.9 24.8 12.8 191.6 3.4 35.6 997.5
Week Ago 442.0 189.9 2.7 13.2 7.2 151.0 47.9 28.8 912.4
To Date 18298.6 4492.9 273.3 1759.9 240.9 10710.6 1944.8 1409.2 45106.6
Year Ago 18093.4 5847.8 171.6 1347.6 260.9 11883.1 3169.3 1017.1 47850.1
EXPORTS
This Week 375.0 136.3 48.4 12.7 27.0 179.3 1.9 77.4 865.6
Week Ago 174.2 92.9 12.7 56.5 1.8 151.8 161.4 73.6 739.7
To Date 16232.6 3986.5 1523.8 1897.5 316.2 10237.2 2069.3 1394.4 41927.2
Year Ago 14670.4 4290.2 1168.4 1354.5 298.4 10878.2 3345.3 901.1 41570.2
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 191.4 23.6 5.1 36.9 1.6 249.2 3.4 37.2 594.5
Week Ago 63.2 1.1 5.5 28.3 0.4 160.3 3.1 25.2 314.2
To Date 4480.4 482.6 310.1 1271.2 57.5 9461.7 225.1 939.5 19514.5
Year Ago 2960.5 333.6 261.9 1295.3 53.4 9108.5 173.6 529.0 16099.5
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
**Year Ago values for domestic disappearance and exports do not include
producer car volumes.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Indonesia’s Palm Oil Production Seen Rising 5% — Market Talk
0244 GMT – The USDA sees Indonesia’s palm-oil production rising 5% in the season starting in October to 40.5 million metric tons on “trend yield growth” and the growing area. That as the agency predicts industrial consumption coming it at 4.2 million this season and rising 7.1% next season. Meanwhile, Bursa Malaysia’s benchmark palm-oil contract is up 0.3% in early trading at MYR2,218/ton. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry conditions through the weekend with near to below normal temperatures. Some rains are posible early next week.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August 54 September 120 September 58 September 29-Nov 26-Sep
September 59 September 65 September 27-Nov
October 52 December 65 December 29-Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
August 220 August
September 245 September 9-Sep 115 September
October 11-Oct 92 December

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 2
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 470.80 dn 25.00
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 506.00 up 0.20
2 Can 493.00 up 0.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 526.00 up 0.20
2 Can 513.00 up 0.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Aug 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 557.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 560.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 577.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 595.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 560.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 562.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 580.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 597.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 560.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 487.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2190.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 216.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0793)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 208,194 lots, or 7.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 3,510 3,518 3,479 3,482 3,514 3,498 -16 53,696 105,214
Nov-18 – – – 3,578 3,580 3,578 -2 0 14
Jan-19 3,622 3,623 3,580 3,580 3,623 3,601 -22 152,480 212,300
Mar-19 – – – 3,657 3,657 3,657 0 0 22
May-19 3,708 3,711 3,673 3,673 3,704 3,693 -11 1,984 10,300
Jul-19 – – – 3,690 3,690 3,690 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,740 3,740 3,712 3,721 3,742 3,729 -13 30 460
Nov-19 – – – 3,747 3,747 3,747 0 0 16
Jan-20 3,822 3,822 3,784 3,784 3,774 3,803 29 4 18
Corn
Turnover: 304,082 lots, or 5.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-18 1,781 1,784 1,776 1,777 1,780 1,780 0 47,404 285,504
Nov-18 1,817 1,820 1,809 1,814 1,815 1,816 1 21,572 20,698
Jan-19 1,853 1,856 1,842 1,845 1,854 1,849 -5 208,944 645,550
Mar-19 1,888 1,891 1,880 1,882 1,890 1,886 -4 364 4,050
May-19 1,931 1,935 1,923 1,925 1,932 1,929 -3 25,218 182,692
Jul-19 1,940 1,947 1,938 1,939 1,943 1,942 -1 580 2,638
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,796,086 lots, or 56.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-18 – – – 3,183 3,183 3,183 0 0 110
Sep-18 3,165 3,178 3,137 3,140 3,156 3,155 -1 325,758 841,354
Nov-18 3,217 3,228 3,179 3,185 3,206 3,207 1 99,464 177,188
Dec-18 3,187 3,193 3,170 3,170 3,189 3,187 -2 82 388
Jan-19 3,200 3,209 3,160 3,163 3,192 3,184 -8 1,258,286 1,940,354
Mar-19 3,079 3,087 3,047 3,047 3,077 3,065 -12 370 5,008
May-19 2,925 2,932 2,890 2,892 2,922 2,910 -12 109,702 592,390
Jul-19 2,926 2,928 2,882 2,884 2,917 2,903 -14 2,424 2,336
Palm Oil
Turnover: 300,306 lots, or 14.60 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-18 – – – 4,772 4,772 4,772 0 0 0
Sep-18 4,738 4,750 4,692 4,712 4,750 4,722 -28 46,858 154,200
Oct-18 – – – 4,794 4,794 4,794 0 0 6
Nov-18 4,950 4,950 4,950 4,950 4,984 4,950 -34 2 20
Dec-18 – – – 4,856 4,856 4,856 0 0 6
Jan-19 4,888 4,918 4,852 4,870 4,914 4,884 -30 247,720 422,756
Feb-19 4,972 4,972 4,920 4,926 4,860 4,942 82 10 4
Mar-19 – – – 4,860 4,860 4,860 0 0 6
Apr-19 – – – 4,922 4,922 4,922 0 0 28
May-19 5,026 5,042 4,988 5,008 5,046 5,014 -32 5,716 45,394
Jun-19 – – – 4,884 4,914 4,884 -30 0 38
Jul-19 – – – 5,056 5,056 5,056 0 0 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 458,700 lots, or 26.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-18 – – – 5,714 5,714 5,714 0 0 0
Sep-18 5,636 5,652 5,594 5,616 5,642 5,622 -20 105,360 361,138
Nov-18 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,748 5,786 5,748 -38 2 48
Dec-18 – – – 5,814 5,852 5,814 -38 0 16
Jan-19 5,810 5,840 5,772 5,800 5,830 5,804 -26 334,692 699,176
Mar-19 – – – 5,904 5,904 5,904 0 0 108
May-19 5,760 5,820 5,760 5,794 5,810 5,788 -22 18,622 121,904
Jul-19 5,782 5,788 5,780 5,780 5,820 5,782 -38 24 38
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322