About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 16, 2018 577 Jul 12, 2018
ROUGH RICE July Jul. 16, 2018 75 Jun 28, 2018
CORN July Jul. 16, 2018 177 Jul 12, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul. 16, 2018 8 Jul 09, 2018
SOYBEAN July Jul. 16, 2018 135 Jul 12, 2018

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report Thursday
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2018 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June USDA 2017
Corn Production 14,230 14,331 14,045-14,833 14,040 14,604
Soybean Production 4,310 4,329 4,253-4,430 4,280 4,392
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June USDA 2017
Corn Yield 174.0 * 175.3 172.6-179.5 174.0 xxx.x
Soybean Yield 48.5 ** 48.8 47.9-50.0 48.5 xx.x
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2017-18
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 2,027 2,106 2,050-2,177 2,102
Soybeans 465 507 478-532 505
Wheat 1,100 1,098 1,080-1,100 1,080
2018-19
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,552 1,733 1,500-2,022 1,577
Soybeans 580 491 385-702 385
Wheat 985 982 924-1,084 946
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 191.7 191.3 188.0-193.0 192.7
Soybeans 96.0 92.0 89.0-94.0 92.5
Wheat 273.5 272.3 270.0-274.5 272.4
2018-19
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 152.0 156.0 151.0-163.0 154.7
Soybeans 98.3 88.6 85.6-92.0 87.0
Wheat 260.9 264.1 262.0-266.0 266.2
***
2018-19 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Thursday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range USDA June 2017-18
All Wheat 1,881 1,865 1,825-1,923 1,827 1,741
Winter Wheat 1,193 1,199 1,178-1,224 1,198 1,269
Hard Red Winter 657 654 634-675 650 750
Soft Red Winter 303 317 307-334 316 292
White Winter 232 229 202-234 232 227
Other Spring 614 600 568-646 N/A 416
Durum 75 74 60-83 N/A 55
2017-18 Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 83.5 83.1 79.2-85.0 85.0
Soybeans 119.5 118.9 117.4-120.0 119.0
2017-18 Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA June
Corn 33.0 32.7 32.0-33.0 33.0
Soybeans 37.0 36.7 36.0-37.5 37.0

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Jul 12
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soy oil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======US====== ================WORLD==============
Ending Stocks Exports Production
18-19 17-18 16-17 : 18-19 17-18 16-17 18-19 17-18 16-17
Soybeans 580 465 302 :157.32 152.24 147.35 359.49 336.70 348.12
Brazil na na : 75.00 74.65 63.14 120.50 119.50 114.60
Argentina na na : 8.00 3.10 7.03 57.00 37.00 55.00
China na na : 0.15 0.15 0.11 14.50 14.20 12.90
Soyoil 2,236 2,316 1,711 : 11.33 10.69 11.25 57.68 55.26 53.79
Corn 1,552 2,027 2,293 :157.79 150.50 159.86 1,054.30 1,033.74 1,078.45
China na na : 0.05 0.05 0.08 225.00 215.89 219.55
Argentina na na : 27.00 24.00 25.99 41.00 33.00 41.00
S. Africa na na : 2.20 2.30 2.29 14.00 13.80 17.55
Cotton(a) 4.00 4.00 2.75 : 41.24 40.69 37.40 120.11 123.69 106.63
All Wheat 985 1,100 1,181 :185.45 181.86 183.16 736.26 757.92 751.99
China na na : 1.20 1.00 0.75 128.00 129.77 128.85
EU 27 na na : 27.50 23.30 27.32 145.00 151.58 145.37
Canada na na : 24.50 22.80 20.16 32.50 30.00 32.14
Argentina na na : 14.20 12.00 13.83 19.50 18.00 18.40
Australia na na : 16.00 15.00 22.64 22.00 21.30 31.82
Russia na na : 34.00 41.00 27.81 67.00 84.99 72.53
Ukraine na na : 16.50 17.50 18.11 25.50 26.98 26.79
Sorghum 35 34 33 : na na na
Barley 94 95 106 : na na na
Oats 41 41 50 : na na na
Rice 42.3 32.3 46.0 : 49.21 48.32 47.21 487.80 488.60 486.71

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were higher in response to the USDA reports. The domestic data showed higher than expected production due to very high yield prospects for Spring Wheat as te weather in the northern Great Plains has been very good. But, world estimates for the coming year showed a sharp reduction in production due to problems in major growing areas around the world. USDA offered hopes for additional Wheat export demand for the US. In Europe, France saw production estimates drop last week due to stressful weather, and lower production estimates are reported from Germany. East Europe and Russia remain mostly hot and dry. Australia is another producing country where some rains are badly needed. The US Winter Wheat harvest is moving north in the Great Plains and Midwest. Yield reports in the Great Plains have been highly variable, but better than initial projections. Midwest yield reports have been good. Protein levels for Great Plains Wheat have been strong as is usual during warm and dry growing seasons. The domestic demand for HRW remains very strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get a few showers on Sunday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see some showers this weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers through the weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 468 and 434 September. Support is at 480, 476, and 471 September, with resistance at 493, 497, and 500 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 470, 467, and 464 September, with resistance at 487, 490, and 502 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 511 and 487 September. Support is at 522, 519, and 516 September, and resistance is at 539, 544, and 548 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was slightly higher ain reaction to the USDA supply and demand reports. Current year ending stocks were higher despite the tight supply situation, but were increased for next year due to increased production caused by the increased planted area. New crop domestic demand was higher, but exports were a little lower as medium grain exports were down. Long grain export projections were unchanged. The average farm prices were lower for both crop years. The market overall shows the tight nearby supplies with farmers in the US mostly sold out. Most of the US crop appears in good shape. The charts still imply that higher prices are possible during the rest of the Summer.
Overnight News: The Delta should see more dry weather most of this week, but light to moderate showers by this weekend.. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1266 September. Support is at 1192, 1184, and 1177 September, with resistance at 1212, 1214, and 1221 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA increased domestic production estimates due to the increased planted area, but did not touch yield expectations. Demand remained at a very high level on the domestic and export side. Ending stocks were below trade expectations for the current year and at the low-end of expectations for the coming year. There is heat in the forecast for the weekend, but cooler temperatures are forecast after that. The crop is pollinating, so weather is a key thing to watch these days, and for now the weather is good. Crop conditions are fair to good here, but feed grains in Europe and Russia are being stressed due to the hot and dry weather there.. There has been too much rain in some northern Midwest areas, and some southwestern Midwest areas have been too dry. It is too dry in some Eastern areas as well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 327 September. Support is at 339, 336, and 333 September, and resistance is at 351, 354, and 357 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 233, 230, and 227 September, and resistance is at 240, 244, and 245 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were slightly higher in reaction to the USDA reports. Soybean Oil was lower. USDA increased production due to the higher planted area and did not change yield estimates. It increased demand for the current crop and ending stocks were lower than anticipated by the trade. USDA cut export demand by 250 million bushels for the next crop year due to the trade war with China. Ending stocks were increased by less than that amount due to the lower stocks estimates for the current year and an uptick in domestic consumption for next year. Traders hope that these estimates will help put a floor in the Soybeans markets as prices have gotten very cheap. Ideas are that Soybeans sales to China will suffer for an extended period, but other countries might buy on ideas that the current relatively cheap prices could encourage new demand. No one thinks that China will buy here in the short-term, but they will need to buy here eventually. In the meantime, Brazil prices stay very strong with bases levels up to about 240 over futures. The US Soybeans crops have been very wet in the Midwest, and Soybeans prefer drier weather. Condition ratings remain high, but have started to slip in the last two weeks.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 808 and 765 August. Support is at 822, 812, and 800 August, and resistance is at 851, 865, and 871 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 326.00, 323.00, and 320.00 August, and resistance is at 335.00, 337.00, and 340.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2810 August. Support is at 2810, 2790, and 2760 August, with resistance at 2910, 2930, and 2950 August.

DJ China Downgrades Soybean Import Forecast In 2018-19 — Market Talk
0950 GMT – China’s Ministry of Agriculture has downgraded its forecast soybean imports by 1.9% in 2018-19 to 94.54 million metric tons following the introduction of the 25% tariff on U.S. beans, which is further bad news for the world market. Commerzbank says that this is well below the 103 million tons forecast by the US Department of Agriculture and given “the latest developments this figure looks impossible to achieve.”(lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower and made new lows for the move on speculative selling tied to ideas that Canola is overvalued when compared to Soybeans. Charts present a weaker appearance. Soybeans were also sharply lower. Reports of improved conditions in the Prairies help keep selling interest alive on rallies, but some western areas remain too dry. Palm Oil was lower in response to the MPOB data that showed weaker demand and higher than expected ending stocks. The export data so far this month from the private sources was also considered negative. The exports reported so far by the private surveyors are well below the pace of last month. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Production is trending higher than trade expectations.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 490.00 November. Support is at 491.00, 486.00, and 484.00 November, with resistance at 500.00, 503.00, and 505.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2170 and 2070 September. Support is at 2180, 2150, and 2120 September, with resistance at 2240, 2250, and 2310 September.

Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Reports:
Observation period : Jun
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Tuesday, 10 Jul
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.36 mil tonnes, Down 11.1%
Exports – 1.19 mil tonnes, Down 7.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.15 mil tonnes, Down 1.2%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.33 mil tonnes, Down 12.6%
Exports – 1.13 mil tonnes, Down 12.6%
Ending Stocks – 2.19 mil tonnes, Up 0.8%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.53 mil tonnes, Down 2.1%
Exports – 1.29 mil tonnes, Down 15.7%
Ending Stocks – 2.17 mil tonnes, Down 0.5%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Hot and dry again through Saturday, some chances for showers later in the weekend..

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July 45 September 146 September 55 September 55 August 30-Aug
August 50 September 55 September 54 August
September 55 September 60 September 35 September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
July
August 243 August 13-Aug 95 September
September 260 September 18-Sep 95 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 12
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 489.00 dn 8.50
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 504.80 dn 1.20
2 Can 491.80 dn 1.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 527.80 dn 1.20
2 Can 514.80 dn 1.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 565.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 565.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 567.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 572.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 567.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 567.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 570.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 575.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 567.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 482.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 2,180 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 208.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0460)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 243,286 lots, or 8.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 3,565 3,565 3,565 0 20 0
Sep-18 3,543 3,547 3,472 3,485 3,553 3,502 -51 191,436 191,838
Nov-18 – – – 3,592 3,650 3,592 -58 0 6
Jan-19 3,643 3,653 3,585 3,587 3,656 3,611 -45 50,522 120,026
Mar-19 – – – 3,646 3,732 3,646 -86 0 4
May-19 3,688 3,701 3,646 3,648 3,703 3,665 -38 1,238 7,350
Jul-19 – – – 3,670 3,707 3,670 -37 0 8
Sep-19 3,779 3,779 3,717 3,717 3,779 3,732 -47 70 226
Nov-19 – – – 3,720 3,776 3,720 -56 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 314,380 lots, or 5.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 1,769 1,770 1,769 -1 0 0
Sep-18 1,768 1,774 1,766 1,769 1,769 1,770 1 94,066 416,138
Nov-18 1,806 1,812 1,805 1,809 1,806 1,809 3 8,910 36,410
Jan-19 1,845 1,851 1,841 1,848 1,843 1,847 4 187,566 657,480
Mar-19 1,878 1,883 1,878 1,882 1,878 1,881 3 378 3,516
May-19 1,917 1,924 1,916 1,920 1,917 1,921 4 23,460 134,038
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,782,846 lots, or 54.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 3,044 2,980 3,044 64 0 0
Aug-18 3,075 3,075 3,002 3,043 3,068 3,033 -35 14 228
Sep-18 3,098 3,099 3,055 3,062 3,106 3,074 -32 926,904 1,542,996
Nov-18 3,141 3,142 3,099 3,103 3,151 3,119 -32 77,536 160,808
Dec-18 3,102 3,102 3,096 3,096 3,140 3,099 -41 16 358
Jan-19 3,119 3,124 3,087 3,089 3,134 3,104 -30 664,464 1,877,762
Mar-19 2,993 2,995 2,965 2,965 3,001 2,979 -22 892 6,160
May-19 2,838 2,843 2,822 2,823 2,844 2,835 -9 113,020 508,116
Palm Oil
Turnover: 340,594 lots, or 15.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,106 5,106 5,106 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 4,730 4,978 4,730 -248 0 20
Sep-18 4,630 4,646 4,598 4,600 4,634 4,616 -18 228,438 352,240
Oct-18 – – – 4,720 4,720 4,720 0 0 8
Nov-18 – – – 4,762 4,762 4,762 0 0 14
Dec-18 – – – 4,832 4,850 4,832 -18 0 6
Jan-19 4,732 4,744 4,704 4,706 4,742 4,722 -20 105,330 299,358
Feb-19 – – – 4,798 4,798 4,798 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 4,790 4,790 4,790 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 4,944 4,964 4,944 -20 0 18
May-19 4,874 4,874 4,826 4,832 4,874 4,840 -34 6,826 29,910
Jun-19 – – – 5,010 5,010 5,010 0 0 16
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 344,562 lots, or 19.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,412 5,412 5,412 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,504 5,504 5,504 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,506 5,516 5,450 5,470 5,500 5,478 -22 208,230 601,062
Nov-18 – – – 5,666 5,666 5,666 0 0 38
Dec-18 – – – 5,708 5,730 5,708 -22 0 16
Jan-19 5,666 5,682 5,622 5,642 5,670 5,650 -20 124,946 509,188
Mar-19 5,740 5,740 5,740 5,740 5,736 5,740 4 2 110
May-19 5,648 5,658 5,608 5,620 5,648 5,624 -24 11,384 78,744
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322