About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower again yesterday as bullish traders were unable to take out chart resistance despite continued hot and dry weather in West Texas. News that China will retaliate against another round of US tariffs was negative. The US will impose tariffs on another $200 billion in imports from China starting as early as August. US crop conditions are fading, but demand prospects are not as good as they were a couple of months ago because of the tariff war with China. Planted area was increased despite bad weather in West Texas, so production ideas are higher. Chinese tariffs against US Cotton have forced buyers in China to look to India. Forward sales have increased and prices there have held firm. The US would have been the primary source, now India and other countries are doing the selling. Crop conditions are improved as the Southeast has been a little drier. Texas now is hot and dry again. The weather is improving in India and China as monsoon rains are reported in India and as China has turned drier. The monsoon has started in southern and central India and rains are now moving into northwest India and Pakistan
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get showers mostly near coastal areas today. Most areas will see light to moderate showers by the end of the week. Temperatures should be above normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above too much above normal. The USDA average price is now 83.93 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 33,437 bales, from 32,987 bales yesterday. ICE said that 11 delivery notices were posted against July contracts today and that total deliveries are now 726 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 121,600 bales this year and 251,400 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 1,900 bales this year and 1,900 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8420, 8340, and 8300 December, with resistance of 8640, 8710, and 8840 December.

Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Jul 9 2018 12:45:00
Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before USDA WASDE Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as eight analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2018-19 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on July 12. Figures are in millions of bales.
*T
================================================================
|——–Survey Results———|USDA
2018-19:| Avg | Low | High | June
================================================================
US Production | 19.60| 18.60| 20.10| 19.50
US Exports | 15.41| 15.00| 16.00| 15.50
US End Stocks | 4.78| 4.10| 5.50| 4.70
World Production | 120.01| 118.50| 121.00| 120.40
World Consumption | 125.24| 124.50| 126.00| 125.35
World End Stocks | 82.79| 81.50| 84.00| 83.02
*T
*T
================================================================================
Analyst |————-U.S.————–|World
| | | End
Estimates: | Production | Exports |Stocks | Production | Consumption |Stocks
================================================================================
Doane | 19.30| 15.50| 4.10| 119.50| 126.00| 81.50
Love | | | | | |
Consulting | 19.70| 15.00| 5.50| 121.00| 125.70| 83.50
Price Futures| | | | | |
Group | 20.10| 15.20| 5.20|n/a |n/a |n/a
Rabobank | 19.90| 16.00| 4.50| 119.60| 124.90| 82.50
Rose | | | | | |
Consulting | 18.60| 15.00| 4.40| 118.50| 124.50| 82.21
Texas A&M; | | | | | |
Robinson | 19.57| 15.50| 4.80| 120.00| 125.35| 82.62
Varner Bros. | 20.00| 15.50| 5.20| 121.00| 125.00| 84.00
Wedbush | | | | | |
Securities | 19.60| 15.60| 4.50| 120.50| 125.25| 83.20
*T
SOURCE: Bloomberg News
To contact the reporter on this story:
Dominic Carey in Washington at dcarey5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net
Simon Casey
—————————–====================——————————
Copyright (c) 2018, Bloomberg, L. P.
################################ END OF STORY 1 ##############################

——————————————————

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was slightly higher yesterday in range trading. There is nothing in the Atlantic to cause any concern for crops right now. Florida weather remains good and demand prospects remain poor, especially with the potential for lost Business with the EU. The tariff wars between the US and the EU are hurting export demand ideas. The EU imports a lot of FCOJ and these exports will most likely be hurt due to retaliation that will be made by Europe that included increased tariffs on US FCOJ. The growing conditions in Florida should remain good as the rainy season appears to be underway. Florida producers are seeing good-sized fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used. Brazil could use more rain as Sao Paulo has been hot and mostly dry. The harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July contracts this morning and that total deliveries are now 114 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 176.00 September. Support is at 165.00, 163.00, and 160.00 September, with resistance at 170.00, 171.00, and 172.00 September.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jul 11
Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 6/23/2018 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
6/23/2018 6/24/2017 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 290.12 214.27 35.4%
Retail/Institutional 6.75 6.70 0.8%
Total 296.87 220.97 34.3%
Pack
Bulk 0.44 0.76 -41.8%
Retail/Institutional 1.00 1.42 -29.9%
Total Pack 1.44 2.18 -34.0%
Reprocessed -1.44 -2.18 -34.0%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 NC
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.03 0.04 -36.7%
Imports – Foreign 1.47 2.42 -39.4%
Domestic Receipts 0.13 0.32 -59.9%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.03 0.00 NA
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 290.72 215.62 34.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.75 8.12 -4.6%
Total 298.47 223.74 33.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 2.92 5.38 -45.7%
Exports 0.24 0.44 -44.5%
Total (Bulk) 3.16 5.82 -45.6%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.35 1.26 7.3%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.35 1.26 7.3%
Total Movement 4.51 7.08 -36.2%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 287.55 209.80 37.1%
Retail/Institutional 6.40 6.86 -6.8%
Ending Inventory 293.96 216.67 35.7%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
23-Jun-18 24-Jun-17 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 185.02 212.24 -12.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.20 6.78 6.1%
Total 192.21 219.03 -12.2%
Pack
Bulk 87.70 144.14 -39.2%
Retail/Institutional 47.51 53.25 -10.8%
Total Pack 135.21 197.39 -31.5%
Reprocessed -94.11 -122.93 -23.4%
Pack from Fruit 41.10 74.46 -44.8%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.96 -3.42 -72.0%
Imports – Foreign 265.90 197.69 34.5%
Domestic Receipts 8.24 5.87 40.5%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.52 0.75 -30.8%
from Non-Reporting Entit 1.16 2.56 -54.7%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.61 0.50 21.8%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 456.00 437.42 4.2%
Retail/Institutional 54.71 60.03 -8.9%
Total 510.71 497.44 2.7%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 156.49 170.86 -8.4%
Domestic 11.96 56.76 -78.9%
Exports 168.45 227.61 -26.0%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 48.30 53.17 -9.1%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 48.30 53.17 -9.1%
Total Movement 216.75 280.78 -22.8%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 287.55 209.80 37.1%
Retail/Institutional 6.40 6.86 -6.8%
Ending Inventory 293.96 216.67 35.7%

Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 6/16/2018 Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
6/16/2018 6/17/2017 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 292.56 215.85 35.5%
Retail/Institutional 6.72 6.82 -1.5%
Total 299.27 222.67 34.4%
Pack
Bulk 0.45 1.83 -75.6%
Retail/Institutional 1.22 1.04 17.3%
Total Pack 1.67 2.87 -42.0%
Reprocessed -1.67 -2.87 -42.0%
Pack from Fruit 0.00 0.00 0.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -0.01 -0.10 -94.5%
Imports – Foreign 4.10 4.22 -3.0%
Domestic Receipts 0.02 0.47 -96.0%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.03 0.02 85.4%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.16 0.00 17526.7%
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.00 0.00 NC
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 295.64 219.43 34.7%
Retail/Institutional 7.94 7.86 1.0%
Total 303.58 227.28 33.6%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 5.22 4.64 12.7%
Exports 0.30 0.52 -42.3%
Total (Bulk) 5.52 5.16 7.1%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.18 1.15 2.5%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.18 1.15 2.5%
Total Movement 6.71 6.31 6.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 290.12 214.27 35.4%
Retail/Institutional 6.75 6.70 0.8%
Ending Inventory 296.87 220.97 34.3%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
16-Jun-18 17-Jun-17 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 185.02 212.24 -12.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.20 6.78 6.1%
Total 192.21 219.03 -12.2%
Pack
Bulk 87.26 143.38 -39.1%
Retail/Institutional 46.51 51.83 -10.3%
Total Pack 133.77 195.20 -31.5%
Reprocessed -92.67 -120.74 -23.2%
Pack from Fruit 41.10 74.46 -44.8%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.98 -3.46 -71.6%
Imports – Foreign 264.43 195.28 35.4%
Domestic Receipts 8.12 5.55 46.2%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.49 0.75 -35.0%
from Non-Reporting Entit 1.16 2.56 -54.7%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.61 0.50 21.8%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 455.40 436.06 4.4%
Retail/Institutional 53.71 58.61 -8.4%
Total 509.11 494.67 2.9%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 153.57 165.48 -7.2%
Domestic 11.71 56.31 -79.2%
Exports 165.28 221.79 -25.5%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 46.96 51.91 -9.5%
Exports 0.00 0.00 NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 46.96 51.91 -9.5%
Total Movement 212.24 273.70 -22.5%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 290.12 214.27 35.4%
Retail/Institutional 6.75 6.70 0.8%
Ending Inventory 296.87 220.97 34.3%

COFFEE
General Comments Futures were lower in both markets as the US Dollar turned higher. London was the stronger market on concerns about the potential Vietnamese production. It has been dry there and the cherries could be hurt. Either way, there is not much Robusta on offer in the world markets right now even though supplies in storage in Europe are very high. Brazil weather remains good for harvesting and as production is thought to be very big. The harvest is now about half over. It has been dry in Vietnam, and there is little on offer from that origin as producers want to see how big the next crop will be and try to wait for higher prices. Robusta offers from Vietnam are still down and traders say internal supplies are tight due to a smaller than expected harvest last year. It remains mostly dry in Arabica areas of Brazil, and there is no rain in the forecast for the next week. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Growing conditions are good.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.049 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 107.41 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal this week, then near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers. ICE said that 2 delivery notices were posted in New York and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,259 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 112.00, 109.00, and 107.00 September, and resistance is at 115.00, 118.00 and 119.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1660, 1640, and 1610 September, and resistance is at 1710, 1730, and 1750 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were lower in both markets, with New York the weaker market as the US Dollar rallied. Ideas of big world production are keeping the speculators from buying. Traders note dry conditions in Brazil, the EU, and Russia, but also note very good conditions in Thailand and India. Brazil producers are also worried about Cane production even with the rapid early harvest. However, there is still a lot of Sugar in the world and the futures price action implies that there is enough movement right now to keep the market well supplied. The dry weather in much of Europe and in southern Russia near the Black Sea has hurt Sugar beets production potential in these areas. India is exporting Sugar again and has a large surplus to move. Conditions have improved in the last couple of weeks as monsoon rains have arrived. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal this week and near to above normal this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1090 October. Support is at 1120, 1090, and 1060 October, and resistance is at 1180, 1200, and 1250 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 326.00, 323.00, and 317.00 October, and resistance is at 336.00, 340.00, and 346.00 October.

COCOA
General Comments futures were lower in both markets yesterday. New York was the weaker market as the US Dollar rallied Trends are sideways in both markets. The outlook for strong production in the coming year has been enough to keep the prices in a short-term range. Ideas that current weather conditions are good for crops in West Africa continue to circulate. There have been reports of good rains throughout the region and big yields are possible. There are still some concerns about demand as consumers are looking for healthier products to consume in many cases and as the world economy is still an issue. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa, but most main areas will be dry. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.849 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 132 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2400, 2380, and 2340 September, with resistance at 2520, 2540, and 2560 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1710 September, with resistance at 1850, 1900, and 1920 September.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322