About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher again yesterday as the weather forecasts keep calling for hot and dry conditions in the Southern and western Great Plains. The initial round of Trump and Chinese tariffs appears to be part of the price, but will continue to be a drag on prices longer term. US crop conditions are fading, but demand prospects are not as good as they were a couple of months ago. Planted area was increased despite bad weather in West Texas, so production ideas are higher. The weekly export sales report last week showed Chinese cancellations, so the move away from US Cotton by China continues. Wire reports indicate that tariffs against US Cotton have forced buyers in China to look to India. Forward sales have increased and prices there have held firm. The US would have been the primary source, now India and other countries are doing the selling. Crop conditions are improved as the Southeast has been a little drier. Texas now is hot and dry again. The weather is improving in India and China as monsoon rains are reported in India and as China has turned drier. The monsoon has started in southern and central India and rains are now moving into northwest India and Pakistan
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get showers mostly near coastal areas today. Most areas will see light to moderate showers by the end of the week. Temperatures should be above normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above too much above normal. The USDA average price is now 82.99 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 33,604 bales, from 33,224 bales yesterday. ICE said that 11 delivery notices were posted against July contracts today and that total deliveries are now 701 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8420, 8340, and 8300 December, with  resistance of 8620, 8710, and 8840 December.

Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Jul 9 2018 12:45:00
Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before USDA WASDE Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as eight analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2018-19 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on July 12. Figures are in millions of bales.
*T
================================================================
|——–Survey Results———|USDA
2018-19:| Avg | Low | High | June
================================================================
US Production | 19.60| 18.60| 20.10| 19.50
US Exports | 15.41| 15.00| 16.00| 15.50
US End Stocks | 4.78| 4.10| 5.50| 4.70
World Production | 120.01| 118.50| 121.00| 120.40
World Consumption | 125.24| 124.50| 126.00| 125.35
World End Stocks | 82.79| 81.50| 84.00| 83.02
*T
*T
================================================================================
Analyst |————-U.S.————–|World
| | | End
Estimates: | Production | Exports |Stocks | Production | Consumption |Stocks
================================================================================
Doane | 19.30| 15.50| 4.10| 119.50| 126.00| 81.50
Love | | | | | |
Consulting | 19.70| 15.00| 5.50| 121.00| 125.70| 83.50
Price Futures| | | | | |
Group | 20.10| 15.20| 5.20|n/a |n/a |n/a
Rabobank | 19.90| 16.00| 4.50| 119.60| 124.90| 82.50
Rose | | | | | |
Consulting | 18.60| 15.00| 4.40| 118.50| 124.50| 82.21
Texas A&M; | | | | | |
Robinson | 19.57| 15.50| 4.80| 120.00| 125.35| 82.62
Varner Bros. | 20.00| 15.50| 5.20| 121.00| 125.00| 84.00
Wedbush | | | | | |
Securities | 19.60| 15.60| 4.50| 120.50| 125.25| 83.20
*T
SOURCE: Bloomberg News
To contact the reporter on this story:
Dominic Carey in Washington at dcarey5@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Alex Tanzi at atanzi@bloomberg.net
Simon Casey
—————————–====================——————————
Copyright (c) 2018, Bloomberg, L. P.
################################ END OF STORY 1 ##############################

Crop Progress
Date 8-Jul 1-Jul 2017 Avg
Cotton Squaring 59 42 59 55
Cotton Setting Bolls 21 12 18 15
Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Cotton This Week 8 19 32 34 7
Cotton Last Week 6 18 33 36 7
Cotton Last Year 4 8 27 47 14

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 03, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 339,405
: Positions :
: 92,823 9,162 65,766 67,730 234,125 95,289 18,916 321,608 327,968: 17,798 11,438
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 (Change in open interest: -2,330) :
: -2,987 421 -46 2,055 -6,530 -1,260 3,382 -2,238 -2,773: -91 443
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.3 2.7 19.4 20.0 69.0 28.1 5.6 94.8 96.6: 5.2 3.4
: Total Traders: 301 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 135 48 80 57 73 32 17 264 186:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was mostly a little higher yesterday, but mostly held the recent rally as some tropical waves appeared off the coast of the Carolinas and also in the Windward and Leeward Islands. Neither of them appears likely to produce a damaging tropical storm, but more waves will be coming so the risk of damage is somewhat more elevated Traders will watch them both, with on located already in the Gulf of Mexico and the other just off the African coast. Florida weather remains good and demand prospects remain poor, especially with the potential for lost Business with the EU. The tariff wars between the US and the EU are hurting export demand ideas. The EU imports a lot of FCOJ and these exports will most likely be hurt due to retaliation that will be made by Europe that included increased tariffs on US FCOJ. The growing conditions in Florida should remain good as the rainy season appears to be underway. Florida producers are seeing golf ball sized or larger fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used. Brazil could use more rain as Sao Paulo has been hot and mostly dry. The harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July contracts this morning and that total deliveries are now 114 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 176.00 September. Support is at 165.00, 163.00, and 160.00 September, with resistance at 171.00, 172.00, and 175.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 3, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 16,574 :
: Positions :
: 6,109 13,022 1,143 0 0 4,359 100 5 833 948 1,423 :
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 :
: -416 -69 1 0 0 -73 -26 -103 94 -21 16 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 36.9 78.6 6.9 0.0 0.0 26.3 0.6 0.0 5.0 5.7 8.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 60 :
: 19 14 4 0 0 18 . . 10 4 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments Futures were higher on what appeared to be some speculative and commercial buying as futures ran to four-year lows. London was the stronger market on concerns about the potential Vietnamese production. It has been dry there and the cherries could be hurt. The Commitment of Traders reports after the close showed a record speculative short position in New York, and ideas that a huge speculative short position is there might be a reason for the recent buying.. Brazil weather remains good for harvesting and as production is thought to be very big. London is still in a trading range on ideas of good world availability of Robusta, but producers there have been reluctant to offer. It has been dry in Vietnam, and there is little on offer from that origin as producers want to see how big the next crop will be and try to wait for higher prices. Robusta offers from Vietnam are still down and traders say internal supplies are tight due to a smaller than expected harvest last year. It remains mostly dry in Arabica areas of Brazil, and there is no rain in the forecast for the next week. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.045 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 109.26 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted in New York and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,257 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 112.00, 109.00, and 107.00 September, and resistance is at 115.00, 118.00 and 119.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1660, 1640, and 1610 September, and resistance is at 1710, 1730, and 1750 September.

DJ ECF May Data Shows European Coffee Stocks at Eight-Month High
By David Hodari
European coffee stocks rose for the third straight month in May, to their highest level since August 2017, the European Coffee Federation said Tuesday.
Stocks rose 2.1%, or 14,395 tons, in May, the data show. The total amount of beans held at the six major European coffee ports that the ECF tracks–Barcelona, Antwerp, Hamburg, Genoa, Le Havre and Trieste–rose to 686,072 tons at the end of May from 671,678 tons at the end of April.
The data revealed gains in all ports except Hamburg and Le Havre, which of the six have the second largest and smallest stocks respectively. Hamburg stocks edged down 0.2%–or 233 tons–to 125,781 tons, while Le Havre’s slipped by a mere 72 tons, or 0.3%, to 26,669 tons.
Inventories at Antwerp, the biggest stockholder, ticked up 2% to 334,163 tons, while those at Genoa, the third-largest, climbed by 4.9%.
At both Barcelona and Trieste, stocks climbed 3.6%.
London-traded robusta futures were last down 0.71% at $1,683 a ton and New York-traded arabica was down 0.57% at $1.14 a pound.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 03, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 344,593
: Positions :
: 45,321 118,460 87,896 123,146 102,914 68,340 24,854 324,703 334,124: 19,890 10,469
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 (Change in open interest: 26,719) :
: -628 11,775 10,126 9,742 2,700 4,593 -336 23,833 24,264: 2,886 2,455
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.2 34.4 25.5 35.7 29.9 19.8 7.2 94.2 97.0: 5.8 3.0
: Total Traders: 587 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 209 174 170 135 114 36 22 460 415:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were a little lower in New York and in London after trading both sides of unchanged. Ideas of big world production are keeping the speculators selling. Traders note dry conditions in Brazil, the EU, and Russia, but also note very good conditions in Thailand and India. Brazil producers are also worried about Cane production even with the rapid early harvest. Movement from mills to ports has been slow due to the high freight costs left from the recent truckers strike. However, there is still a lot of Sugar in the world and the futures price action implies that there is enough movement right now to keep the market well supplied. The dryness in the EU and east into Russia has affected grains production as well as Sugar and has been widely reported. The dry weather in much of Europe and in southern Russia near the Black Sea has hurt Sugar beets production potential in these areas. India is exporting Sugar again and could export more than 2.0 million tons. China has reached a deal to buy at least part of the Indian surplus, so hopes are that India will not offer as much into the world market. However, a potential source of big demand might also be lost. Conditions have improved in the last couple of weeks as monsoon rains have arrived. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1090 October. Support is at 1120, 1090, and 1060 October, and resistance is at 1180, 1200, and 1250 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 328.00 and 316.00 October. Support is at 326.00, 323.00, and 317.00 October, and resistance is at 336.00, 340.00, and 346.00 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 03, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,073,896
: Positions :
: 174,833 236,270 210,418 272,946 478,828 332,478 80,659 990,675 1,006,176: 83,222 67,721
: :
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 (Change in open interest: -837) :
: -1,278 29,170 7,812 -24,561 -54,202 20,612 8,658 2,585 -8,563: -3,422 7,726
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.3 22.0 19.6 25.4 44.6 31.0 7.5 92.3 93.7: 7.7 6.3
: :
: Total Traders: 265 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 78 85 70 72 30 19 210 213:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments futures were lower in both markets in light volume trading yesterday. Trends are trying to turn up in both markets, but the selling has been too strong at resistance levels so far. The Outlook for strong production in the coming year seems to be enough to keep the prices in check. Ideas that current weather conditions are good for crops in West Africa continue to circulate. There have been reports of good rains throughout the region and big yields are possible. There are still some concerns about demand as consumers are looking for healthier products to consume in many cases and as the world economy is still an issue. Ideas are that demand can start to improve with the lower price levels, but the world economic situation is still in a flux. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa, but most main areas will be dry. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are higher today at 4.877 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 126 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2680 and 2900 September. Support is at 2400, 2380, and 2340 September, with resistance at 2540, 2560, and 2590 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1910, 1930, and 2010 September. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1710 September, with resistance at 1850, 1900, and 1920 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 03, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 305,120
: Positions :
: 61,928 33,654 61,124 108,089 173,524 62,242 30,154 293,383 298,455: 11,738 6,665
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 (Change in open interest: -5,543) :
: -2,279 -1,670 849 -700 689 -1,880 -4,325 -4,010 -4,457: -1,533 -1,086
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.3 11.0 20.0 35.4 56.9 20.4 9.9 96.2 97.8: 3.8 2.2
: Total Traders: 235 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 50 84 41 39 31 18 206 163:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322