About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 11, 2018 869 Jul 09, 2018
CORN July Jul. 11, 2018 243 Jul 06, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul. 11, 2018 77 Jul 05, 2018
SOYBEAN July Jul. 11, 2018 478 Jul 09, 2018

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jul 9
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 05, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 07/05/2018 06/28/2018 07/06/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 709 2,295 807 5,221
CORN 1,446,926 1,538,556 1,010,889 47,207,472 49,724,027
FLAXSEED 0 0 686 24 2,399
MIXED 0 0 24 24 24
OATS 0 0 0 599 898
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 10,584 9,416 112,046 4,781,677 5,136,986
SOYBEANS 654,834 849,374 477,140 50,328,713 53,016,687
SUNFLOWER 335 0 0 335 383
WHEAT 268,221 324,548 536,002 1,751,010 3,343,553
Total 2,380,900 2,722,603 2,139,082 104,070,661 111,230,178
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Alerts History
• 10-Jul-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 TOTAL GRAIN CROP SEEN AT 228.51 MLN TNS VS 229.70 MLN TONNES OF PRIOR FORECAST AND 237.67 MLN TNS LAST SEASON -CONAB
• 10-Jul-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 SECOND-CORN CROP SEEN AT 56.01 MLN TNS VS 58.22 MLN TONNES PRIOR FORECAST AND 67.38 MLN TNS LAST SEASON -CONAB
• 10-Jul-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 118.88 MLN TNS VS 118.05 MLN TONNES PRIOR FORECAST AND 114.08 MLN TNS LAST SEASON -CONAB
• 10-Jul-2018 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2017/18 TOTAL CORN CROP SEEN AT 82.92 MLN TNS VS 85.00 MLN TONNES OF PRIOR FORECAST AND 97.84 MLN TNS LAST SEASON -CONAB
Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean crop raised to 118.88 mln tns – Conab – Reuters
10-Jul-2018 07:09:03 AM
To view this story on Eikon, click here
SAO PAULO, July 10 (Reuters) – Brazil’s 2017/18 soybean crop seen at 118.88 mln tns vs 118.05 mln tonnes prior forecast and 114.08 mln tns last season -Conab
• Brazil’s 2017/18 second-corn crop seen at 56.01 mln tns vs 58.22 mln tonnes prior forecast and 67.38 mln tns last season -Conab
• Brazil’s 2017/18 total grain crop seen at 228.51 mln tns vs 229.70 mln tonnes of prior forecast and 237.67 mln tns last season -Conab
• Brazil’s 2017/18 total corn crop seen at 82.92 mln tns vs 85.00 mln tonnes of prior forecast and 97.84 mln tns last season -Conab

DJ 2018-19 U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018-19 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Thursday.
2018-19 Wheat Production
Average Range USDA June USDA 2017-18
All Wheat 1,865 1,825-1,923 1,827 1,741
Winter Wheat 1,199 1,178-1,224 1,198 1,269
Hard Red Winter 654 634-675 650 750
Soft Red Winter 317 307-334 316 292
White Winter 229 202-234 232 227
Other Spring 600 568-646 N/A 416
Durum 74 60-83 N/A 55
All Winter Other
Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White Spring Durum
Advanced Market 1,867 1,210 654 326 230 576 81
Allendale 1,833 1,183 658 322 202 577 73
DC Analysis 1,859 1,182 634 316 232 599 78
Doane 1,900 1,200 655 315 230 625 75
EDF Man 1,848 1,195 655 310 230 583 70
Farm Futures 1,901 1,178 635 325 218 640 83
Futures Internatio 1,900 1,224 674 318 232 600 75
Hueber Report 1,825 1,195 650 312 232 570 60
INTL FCStone 1,890 1,203 640 334 229 609 78
MaxYield 1,840 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Northstar 1,923 1,217 675 310 232 646 60
Sid Love Consultin 1,861 1,218 670 316 232 568 75
Price Futures 1,865 1,210 657 320 233 580 75
Prime Ag 1,852 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
RMC 1,825 1,196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
RJ O’Brien 1,881 1,199 660 307 232 607 75
Vantage RM 1,827 1,198 650 316 232 N/A N/A
US Commodities 1,845 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Western Milling 1,896 1,203 651 319 234 619 74
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,852 1,180 639 311 229 600 71

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2018 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2018 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA June USDA 2017
Corn Production 14,331 14,045-14,833 14,040 14,604
Soybean Production 4,329 4,253-4,430 4,280 4,392
Corn Yield 175.3 172.6-179.5 174.0 176.6
Soybean Yield 48.8 47.9-50.0 48.5 49.1
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
Advanced Market 14,233 174.0 4,309 48.5
AgriSource 14,224 174.0 4,312 48.5
Allendale 14,243 174.0 4,306 48.5
DC Analysis 14,392 176.0 4,356 49.0
Doane 14,392 176.0 4,400 49.5
EDF Man 14,460 177.0 4,307 48.5
Farm Futures 14,132 172.6 4,253 47.9
Futures Internatio 14,555 178.0 4,310 48.5
Hueber Report 14,045 174.0 4,277 48.5
INTL FCStone 14,228 174.0 4,336 48.8
MaxYield 14,300 174.0 4,300 48.5
Northstar 14,833 179.5 4,380 49.5
Price Futures 14,228 174.0 4,310 48.5
Prime Ag 14,315 175.0 4,307 48.5
RMC 14,210 174.0 4,305 48.5
Sid Love Consultin 14,310 175.0 4,356 49.0
US Commodities 14,379 176.0 4,351 49.0
Vantage RM 14,344 176.0 4,356 49.1
Western Milling 14,397 176.0 4,430 50.0
Zaner 14,395 176.2 4,311 48.5

DJ U.S. July Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2017-18
Average Range USDA June
Corn 2,106 2,050-2,177 2,102
Soybeans 507 478-532 505
Wheat 1,098 1,080-1,100 1,080
2018-19
Average Range USDA June
Corn 1,733 1,500-2,022 1,577
Soybeans 491 385-702 385
Wheat 982 924-1,084 946
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,102 525 N/A 1,695 586 965
AgriSource 2,102 510 1,090 1,675 435 975
Allendale 2,137 528 1,100 1,760 539 961
DC Analysis 2,102 492 N/A 1,679 580 967
Doane 2,072 490 1,100 1,745 545 1,040
EDF Man 2,102 505 N/A 1,847 437 967
Farm Futures 2,166 494 1,100 1,882 437 986
Futures Internationa 2,132 495 N/A 2,022 405 1,013
Hueber Report 2,075 505 N/A 1,550 414 945
INTL FCStone 2,058 478 1,100 1,638 499 1,013
Sid Love Consulting 2,177 505 1,100 1,922 561 999
MaxYield 2,050 515 1,100 1,500 395 956
Northstar 2,150 530 1,100 1,800 510 968
Price Futures 2,102 525 1,100 1,615 465 973
Prime-Ag 2,102 505 1,100 1,877 412 990
RMC 2,102 505 1,080 1,577 385 956
RJ O’Brien 2,087 499 N/A 1,663 498 1,009
US Commodities 2097 500 N/A 1,691 450 950
Vantage RM 2,102 505 1,100 1,881 571 924
Western Milling 2,128 532 1,100 1,585 702 1,084
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,075 500 N/A 1,782 476 N/A

DJ July World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2017-18 and 2018-19, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2017-18
Average Range USDA June
Corn 191.3 188.0-193.0 192.7
Soybeans 92.0 89.0-94.0 92.5
Wheat 272.3 270.0-274.5 272.4
2018-19
Average Range USDA June
Corn 156.0 151.0-163.0 154.7
Soybeans 88.6 85.6-92.0 87.0
Wheat 264.1 262.0-266.0 266.2
2017-18 2018-19
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 190.0 94.0 270.5 154.0 92.0 263.0
Allendale 192.9 92.8 272.3 156.2 90.0 265.0
Doane 190.0 92.0 273.0 151.0 92.0 262.0
EDF Man 193.0 92.5 272.4 161.0 88.0 264.5
Farm Futures 190.0 89.0 274.5 151.0 86.0 262.0
Futures Interna 192.0 92.0 272.9 161.0 85.6 264.9
Hueber Report 192.7 92.5 272.4 154.0 87.0 264.2
INTL FCStone 190.7 89.7 274.1 153.2 91.4 266.0
MaxYield 192.5 91.8 272.0 155.0 86.5 266.0
Northstar 191.0 93.0 272.5 163.0 92.0 265.0
Prime-Ag 192.0 93.0 272.0 162.0 88.0 265.0
RMC 192.6 92.5 270.0 154.5 87.0 265.2
US Commodities 192.0 92.0 272.0 154.0 86.5 264.0
Western Milling 188.0 91.0 272.0 152.0 88.0 262.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 190.3 92.1 272.4 157.8 88.9 262.4

DJ July Brazil, Argentina Corn, Soybean Production Estimates – Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production for 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates on Thursday at noon ET.
Brazil Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 83.1 79.2-85.0 85.0
Soybeans 118.9 117.4-120.0 119.0
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 83.00 119.00
Allendale 83.50 119.00
DC Analysis 82.00 119.00
Doane 82.00 119.00
EDF Man 83.00 119.00
Farm Futures 85.00 118.00
Futures Internati 83.00 119.00
Hueber Report 84.00 119.00
INTL FCStone 79.15 117.36
MaxYield 84.00 120.00
Northstar 83.00 119.00
Price Futures 83.00 119.00
Prime Ag 85.00 119.00
RMC 85.00 119.00
US Commodities 84.00 119.00
Western Milling 80.00 119.00
Zaner Ag Hedge 84.00 119.00
Argentina Corn, Soybean Production (million metric tons)
Average Range USDA June
Corn 32.7 32.0-33.0 33.0
Soybeans 36.7 36.0-37.5 37.0
Corn Soybeans
Advanced Market 33.00 37.00
Allendale 33.00 37.00
DC Analysis 33.00 37.00
Doane 33.00 36.00
EDF Man 33.00 37.00
Farm Futures 32.00 36.00
Futures Internati 33.00 37.00
Hueber Report 33.00 37.00
INTL FCStone 32.50 37.00
MaxYield 33.00 36.00
Northstar 32.00 36.00
Price Futures 33.00 37.00
Prime Ag 33.00 37.00
RMC 33.00 37.00
US Commodities 32.00 37.00
Western Milling 32.00 36.00
Zaner Ag Hedge 33.00 37.50

Crop Progress
Date 8-Jul 1-Jul 2017 Avg
Cotton Squaring 59 42 59 55
Cotton Setting Bolls 21 12 18 15
Corn Silking 37 17 18 18
Soybeans Blooming 47 27 32 27
Soybeans Setting Pods 11 6 4
Sorghum Headed 25 22 28 27
Sorghum Coloring 17 17 17
Peanuts Pegging 58 45 58 52
Sunflowers Planted 95 91 100 95
Rice Headed 21 15 21 20
Oats Headed 91 82 92 89
Oats Harvested 10 9 9
Winter Wheat Harvested 63 51 65 61
Spring Wheat Headed 81 58 76 69
Barley Headed 78 50 69 73

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Cotton This Week 8 19 32 34 7
Cotton Last Week 6 18 33 36 7
Cotton Last Year 4 8 27 47 14

Corn This Week 2 5 18 54 21
Corn Last Week 2 4 18 55 21
Corn Last Year 3 7 25 13 13

Soybeans This Week 2 5 22 55 16
Soybeans Last Week 1 5 23 55 16
Soybeans Last Year 3 8 27 52 10

Spring Wheat This Week 1 3 16 66 14
Spring Wheat Last Week 1 4 18 64 13
Spring Wheat Last Year 19 20 26 29 6

Sorghum This Week 4 11 34 46 5
Sorghum Last Week 3 12 32 49 4
Sorghum Last Year 1 5 31 56 7

Rice This Week 1 5 22 59 13
Rice Last Week 0 5 24 56 15
Rice Last Year 0 4 24 48 24

Peanuts This Week 1 3 28 61 7
Peanuts Last Week 0 3 30 59 8
Peanuts Last Year 0 4 22 59 15

Oats This Week 3 3 21 60 13
Oats Last Week 3 3 21 60 13
Oats Last Year 8 12 27 45 8

Barley This Week 1 2 12 68 17
Barley Last Week 1 2 13 66 18
Barley Last Year 7 12 30 41 10

Pastures and Ranges This Week 7 14 28 42 9
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 6 14 29 41 10
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 6 11 29 45 9

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower along with the other markets and in anticipation of good harvest progress. Traders anticipate increased production estimates from USDA this week and also increased ending stocks estimates as the US sales pace has not been that strong so far. In Europe, France saw production estimates drop last week due to stressful weather, and lower production estimates are expected from Germany this week. The market remains mostly concerned about East Europe and Russia. These areas remain mostly hot and dry. Australia is another producing country where some rains are badly needed. On the other hand, Canada and the northern Great Plains have been getting better rains, and increased area estimates seen from USDA and StatsCan imply that these crops can be big. The US Winter Wheat harvest is moving north in the Great Plains and Midwest. Yield reports in the Great Plains have been highly variable, but better than initial projections. Midwest yield reports have been good. Protein levels for Great Plains Wheat have been strong as is usual during warm and dry growing seasons. The domestic demand for HRW remains very strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get a dry week. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see drier conditions, but some showers are expected off and on all week. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers today and late this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 538 and 568 September. Support is at 501, 497, and 493 September, with resistance at 516, 521, and 524 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 520 and 523 September. Support is at 503, 494, and 490 September, with resistance at 514, 521, and 528 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to u with objectives of 588 and 621 September. Support is at 543, 539, and 526 September, and resistance is at 560, 562, and 569 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 03, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 595,898
: Positions :
: 81,855 106,299 190,045 106,513 192,197 187,578 58,948 565,991 547,488: 29,907 48,410
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 (Change in open interest: 6,357) :
: -909 -16,049 10,950 -5,791 -2,126 1,464 12,182 5,714 4,957: 643 1,400
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.7 17.8 31.9 17.9 32.3 31.5 9.9 95.0 91.9: 5.0 8.1
: Total Traders: 430 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 122 122 142 86 112 37 24 330 332:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 03, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 270,436
: Positions :
: 62,231 46,856 51,442 64,179 123,975 69,894 20,983 247,746 243,257: 22,690 27,179
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 (Change in open interest: 6,013) :
: -4,510 9,279 5,495 -1,781 -9,252 4,780 1,223 3,985 6,745: 2,029 -732
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.0 17.3 19.0 23.7 45.8 25.8 7.8 91.6 89.9: 8.4 10.1
: Total Traders: 252 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 69 50 56 69 82 27 16 189 188:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 3, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
BLACK SEA WHEAT FINANCIAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 50 Metric Tons :
CFTC Code #00160F Open Interest is 22,360 :
: Positions :
: 11,480 21,220 400 180 300 9,570 0 100 200 100 300 :
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 :
: 550 300 0 0 0 60 0 100 0 0 0 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.3 94.9 1.8 0.8 1.3 42.8 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 1.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 23 :
: 7 14 . . . . 0 . . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 3, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 57,292 :
: Positions :
: 29,639 20,832 2,955 0 163 3,877 14,541 1,385 4,969 3,176 3,564 :
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 :
: 2,951 -1,456 369 0 11 -1,608 1,165 435 -23 582 865 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.7 36.4 5.2 0.0 0.3 6.8 25.4 2.4 8.7 5.5 6.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 92 :
: 42 29 4 0 . 8 16 . 6 8 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday as the market keeps reacting to the tight supply situation and as bearish speculators buy themselves out of bad trades. The market overall shows the tight nearby supplies with farmers in the US mostly sold out. Most of the US crop appears in good shape. Rice is growing in all areas right now and condition ratings in general are strong. The weather along the Gulf Coast has been hot and that has pushed crop development. Producers in Texas and Louisiana are pleased with the crop condition and expect good yields. Crops farther north into Arkansas and Missouri are also reported in good condition.
Overnight News: The Delta should see more dry weather most of this week, but light to moderate showers by this weekend.. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1266 September. Support is at 1193, 1184, and 1177 September, with resistance at 1214, 1221, and 1231 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of traders Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 3, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 7,682 :
: Positions :
: 4,425 3,806 176 0 0 354 2,273 7 881 322 308 :
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 :
: -195 194 -18 0 0 -92 -754 0 -81 192 -146 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 57.6 49.5 2.3 0.0 0.0 4.6 29.6 0.1 11.5 4.2 4.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 51 :
: 13 13 . 0 0 5 7 . 14 5 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower on some speculative selling tied to ideas that crop conditions were very good and that the trade wars could cost the US some business. USDA did show slight deterioration in its weekly updates last week. There is heat in the forecast for the next week and a half, but cooler temperatures are forecast after that. The crop is pollinating, so weather is a key thing to watch these days, and for now the weather is good. Crop conditions are mostly good here, but feed grains in Europe and Russia are being stressed due to the hot and dry weather there.. There has been too much rain in some northern Midwest areas, and some southwestern Midwest areas have been too dry. Domestic demand remains strong, and demand for ethanol is expected to remain strong. USDA will increase new crop production estimates in its next round of supply and demand estimates based on higher than expected planted area combined with its calculated yield. However, trade ideas are that USDA will be underestimating yield and that a national yield near 180 bushels per acre is possible, implying that production estimates will be forced higher as the growing season progresses and if conditions stay good.
Overnight News: Egypt bought 113,000 tons of US Corn. Mexico cancelled purchases of 152,000 tons of Sorghum.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 350, 347, and 345 September, and resistance is at 361, 365, and 369 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 238, 233, and 230 September, and resistance is at 245, 247, and 251 September.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 03, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,360,868
: Positions :
: 354,816 390,622 602,659 699,617 906,867 479,375 209,668 2,136,467 2,109,816: 224,400 251,052
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 (Change in open interest: -25,525) :
: -24,250 3,514 17,448 -37,992 -71,894 18,928 36,717 -25,867 -14,215: 341 -11,310
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.0 16.5 25.5 29.6 38.4 20.3 8.9 90.5 89.4: 9.5 10.6
: Total Traders: 966 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 241 172 260 396 410 39 30 795 777:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 3, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,989 :
: Positions :
: 1,378 1,908 222 0 0 0 1,159 0 1,068 113 131 :
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 :
: -171 -184 -13 0 0 0 -55 0 17 8 -53 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 27.6 38.3 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.2 0.0 21.4 2.3 2.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 26 :
: 7 8 . 0 0 0 8 0 4 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower in the wake of the news that the Chinese tariffs had started and that China had retaliated, with Soybeans demand being one of the markets in the crosshairs of the Chinese retaliation The tariffs could be in place for a long time as neither side is willing to talk right now. The market is looking at other things such as growing conditions inside the US. The Soybeans crops have been very wet in the Midwest, and Soybeans prefer drier weather. Condition ratings remain high, but have started to slip in the last two weeks. The main problem for Soybean demand remains the US-China trade war. There does not appear to be much movement on either side right now, and some reports suggest that China is preparing for a trade war by telling crusher and other users of Soybeans to expect to import less in the coming season. USDA said that it will account for the potential changes to export demand starting with the July monthly supply and demand data. Export demand will be trimmed, but this demand loss could be partially offset by increased domestic crusher demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 851, 848, and 837 August, and resistance is at 880, 882, and 885 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 328.00, 326.00, and 323.00 August, and resistance is at 340.00, 341.00, and 350.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2870, 2840, and 2810 August, with resistance at 2910, 2930, and 2950 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 03, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,006,046
: Positions :
: 93,484 171,334 256,329 343,298 369,499 236,246 105,249 929,358 902,411: 76,688 103,634
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 (Change in open interest: -14,574) :
: 1,836 4,260 12,675 -33,025 -43,892 3,999 13,709 -14,516 -13,249: -58 -1,325
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.3 17.0 25.5 34.1 36.7 23.5 10.5 92.4 89.7: 7.6 10.3
: Total Traders: 724 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 211 167 242 216 244 37 22 574 584:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 03, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 520,902
: Positions :
: 93,560 160,162 107,125 158,384 192,071 119,429 24,329 478,497 483,687: 42,405 37,215
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 (Change in open interest: -3,563) :
: -7,236 -2,942 -904 1,888 -4,003 3,688 5,785 -2,564 -2,064: -999 -1,499
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.0 30.7 20.6 30.4 36.9 22.9 4.7 91.9 92.9: 8.1 7.1
: Total Traders: 348 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 126 113 77 71 31 20 254 275:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of July 03, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 565,599
: Positions :
: 91,440 27,028 151,360 150,952 312,926 121,950 34,883 515,702 526,197: 49,897 39,402
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 (Change in open interest: 19,830) :
: -2,028 213 16,536 349 -7,251 5,164 9,336 20,021 18,834: -191 996
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.2 4.8 26.8 26.7 55.3 21.6 6.2 91.2 93.0: 8.8 7.0
: Total Traders: 327 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 45 116 100 102 30 13 283 250:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with Chicago Soybeans. New demand is anticipated with the Trump tariffs going into effect today. Reports of improved conditions in the Prairies help keep selling interest alive on rallies, but some western areas remain too dry. Palm Oil was lower in response to the MPOB data that showed weaker demand and higher than expected ending stocks. The export data so far this month from the private sources was also considered negative. The exports reported so far by the private surveyors are well below the pace of last month. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 257,096 tons this month, from 334,132 tons last month. Am Spec said that exports are now 278,048 tons, from 324,947 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 506.00, 504.00, and 503.00 November, with resistance at 512.00, 514.00, and 516.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed . Support is at 2270, 2240, and 2210 September, with resistance at 2310, 2320, and 2350 September.

Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Reports:
Observation period : Jun
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Tuesday, 10 Jul
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.36 mil tonnes, Down 11.1%
Exports – 1.19 mil tonnes, Down 7.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.15 mil tonnes, Down 1.2%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.33 mil tonnes, Down 12.6%
Exports – 1.13 mil tonnes, Down 12.6%
Ending Stocks – 2.19 mil tonnes, Up 0.8%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.53 mil tonnes, Down 2.1%
Exports – 1.29 mil tonnes, Down 15.7%
Ending Stocks – 2.17 mil tonnes, Down 0.5%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 3, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
MALAYSIAN PALM OIL CALENDAR SW – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037642 Open Interest is 21,332 :
: Positions :
: 18,214 14,810 286 750 652 0 840 0 2,060 4,160 120 :
: Changes from: June 26, 2018 :
: 1,676 1,084 286 -442 -466 0 840 0 200 680 -320 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 85.4 69.4 1.3 3.5 3.1 0.0 3.9 0.0 9.7 19.5 0.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 21 :
: 5 4 . . . 0 . 0 . 8 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast: Hot and dry again early this week, some chances for showers later in the week..

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July 40 September 151 July 50 September 54 August 28-Jul
August 47 September 55 September 56 August
September 54 September 60 September 40 September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
July
August 227 August 12-Aug 88 September
September 228 September 16-Sep

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 9
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 506.20 up 1.30
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 518.30 dn 4.90
2 Can 505.30 dn 4.90
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 541.30 dn 4.90
2 Can 528.30 dn 4.90
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 587.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 590.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 592.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 592.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jul 590.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 592.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 595.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 600.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 592.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 497.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 2,280 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 211 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.0200)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 192,076 lots, or 6.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 3,645 3,645 3,645 0 0 98
Sep-18 3,623 3,626 3,559 3,574 3,638 3,587 -51 155,508 187,234
Nov-18 – – – 3,677 3,689 3,677 -12 0 6
Jan-19 3,728 3,728 3,663 3,677 3,738 3,689 -49 35,518 96,520
Mar-19 – – – 3,765 3,814 3,765 -49 0 4
May-19 3,756 3,756 3,703 3,720 3,774 3,728 -46 1,012 6,770
Jul-19 – – – 3,791 3,814 3,791 -23 0 8
Sep-19 3,810 3,811 3,790 3,801 3,850 3,804 -46 38 202
Nov-19 – – – 3,779 3,824 3,779 -45 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 310,342 lots, or 5.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 1,765 1,760 1,765 5 0 10,786
Sep-18 1,782 1,783 1,776 1,776 1,783 1,778 -5 128,582 485,468
Nov-18 1,815 1,817 1,810 1,810 1,819 1,813 -6 9,384 34,362
Jan-19 1,852 1,855 1,841 1,843 1,854 1,847 -7 140,172 591,044
Mar-19 1,884 1,886 1,878 1,879 1,888 1,882 -6 340 3,504
May-19 1,923 1,924 1,913 1,915 1,925 1,917 -8 31,864 113,760
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,454,284 lots, or 75.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 2,980 2,980 2,980 0 0 54
Aug-18 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,021 3,098 3,021 -77 2 234
Sep-18 3,110 3,110 3,068 3,097 3,118 3,085 -33 1,307,142 1,705,394
Nov-18 3,160 3,160 3,106 3,130 3,165 3,123 -42 131,640 141,756
Dec-18 3,144 3,144 3,095 3,126 3,165 3,126 -39 46 362
Jan-19 3,150 3,150 3,106 3,129 3,175 3,125 -50 917,062 1,926,486
Mar-19 3,016 3,016 2,971 2,989 3,020 2,986 -34 714 5,566
May-19 2,830 2,832 2,809 2,824 2,849 2,821 -28 97,678 487,720
Palm Oil
Turnover: 474,534 lots, or 22.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,106 5,106 5,106 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 4,978 4,978 4,978 0 0 20
Sep-18 4,782 4,796 4,682 4,694 4,808 4,732 -76 338,374 346,928
Oct-18 4,792 4,792 4,792 4,792 4,890 4,792 -98 2 6
Nov-18 – – – 4,832 4,930 4,832 -98 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 4,920 5,020 4,920 -100 0 6
Jan-19 4,868 4,886 4,788 4,804 4,890 4,834 -56 128,984 268,816
Feb-19 – – – 4,890 4,946 4,890 -56 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 4,898 4,980 4,898 -82 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,016 5,074 5,016 -58 0 18
May-19 5,022 5,032 4,938 4,946 5,020 4,992 -28 7,172 25,386
Jun-19 5,130 5,130 5,130 5,130 5,112 5,130 18 2 16
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 442,694 lots, or 24.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,412 5,412 5,412 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,504 5,504 5,504 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,622 5,622 5,512 5,524 5,620 5,560 -60 291,072 637,038
Nov-18 – – – 5,706 5,766 5,706 -60 0 38
Dec-18 – – – 5,770 5,832 5,770 -62 0 16
Jan-19 5,780 5,782 5,686 5,696 5,790 5,730 -60 136,752 484,820
Mar-19 – – – 5,892 5,892 5,892 0 0 108
May-19 5,750 5,920 5,674 5,678 5,760 5,708 -52 14,870 71,614
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322