About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was sharply higher Friday as the Trump tariffs went into effect against China. China retaliated, and will buy much less US Cotton. Even sop, the market was able to rally as the tariff war had already been widely anticipated. US crop conditions are holding and as demand prospects are not as good as they were a couple of months ago. Planted area was increased despite bad weather in West Texas, so production ideas are higher. The weekly export sales report last week showed Chinese cancellations, so the move away from US Cotton by China continues. Wire reports indicate that tariffs against US Cotton have forced buyers in China to look to India. Forward sales have increased and prices there have held firm. The US would have been the primary source, now India and other countries are doing the selling. Crop conditions are improved as the Southeast has been a little drier. Texas now is hot and dry again. The weather is improving in India and China as monsoon rains are reported in India and as China has turned drier. The monsoon has started in southern and central India and rains are now moving into northwest India and Pakistan
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get showers mostly near coastal areas. Temperatures should be above normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above too much above normal. The USDA average price is now 82.39 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 33,224 bales, from 31,351 bales yesterday. ICE said that 14 delivery notices were posted against July Contracts today and that total deliveries are now 690 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 8340, 8300, and 8180 December, with  resistance of 8530, 8560, and 8620 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jul 6
As of Jun 29. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Jul 18 0 3 -3 60 76 -16
Oct 18 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 18 53,786 55,309 -1,523 21,959 21,405 554
Mar 19 35,370 35,182 188 1,987 1,972 15
May 19 16,786 16,558 228 213 208 5
Jul 19 18,712 18,135 577 684 684 0
Dec 19 10,896 10,958 -62 14,203 14,029 174
Mar 20 2,704 2,715 -11 208 208 0
May 20 683 683 0 0 0 0
Jul 20 1,035 1,035 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 321 321 0 527 527 0
Total 140,293 140,899 -606 39,841 39,109 732
Open Change
Int
Jul 18 209 932 -723
Oct 18 131 140 -9
Dec 18 181,196 184,308 -3,112
Mar 19 46,228 45,767 461
May 19 6,529 6,296 233
Jul 19 5,842 5,713 129
Dec 19 16,619 15,604 1,015
Mar 20 189 188 1
May 20 0 0 0
Jun 20 0 0 0
Dec 20 334 334 0
Total 257,277 259,282 -2,005

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was mostly a Little lower yesterday, but mostly held the recent rally as some tropical waves started to cross the Atlantic. None of them appears likely to produce a damaging tropical storm, but the waves are coming so the risk of damage is somewhat more elevated Traders will watch them both, with on located already in the Gulf of Mexico and the other just off the African coast. Florida weather remains good and demand prospects remain poor, especially with the potential for lost Business with the EU. The tariff wars between the US and the EU are hurting export demand ideas. The EU imports a lot of FCOJ and these exports will most likely be hurt due to retaliation that will be made by Europe that included increased tariffs on US FCOJ. The growing conditions in Florida should remain good as the rainy season appears to be underway. Florida producers are seeing golf ball sized or larger fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used. Brazil could use more rain as Sao Paulo has been hot and mostly dry. The harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July contracts this morning and that total deliveries are now 114 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 176.00 September. Support is at 165.00, 163.00, and 160.00 September, with resistance at 171.00, 172.00, and 175.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments Futures were higher on what appeared to be some speculative and commercial buying as futures ran to four-year lows. A weaker US Dollar is giving way to some ideas that Coffee is near a bottom.. Brazil was the key as the weather remains good for harvesting and as production is thought to be very big. However, the US Dollar is showing that a top could be forming on the charts, and that might finally mean that Coffee futures are getting to a low. London is still in a trading range on ideas of good world availability of Robusta, but producers there have been reluctant to offer. It has been dry in Vietnam, and there is little on offer from that origin as producers want to see how big the next crop will be and try to wait for higher prices. Robusta offers from Vietnam are still down and traders say internal supplies are tight due to a smaller than expected harvest last year. It remains mostly dry in Arabica areas of Brazil, and there is no rain in the forecast for the next week. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.044 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 107.94 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers. ICE said that 3 delivery notices were posted in New York and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,257 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 109.00 September. Support is at 112.00, 109.00, and 107.00 September, and resistance is at 115.00, 118.00 and 119.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1640, 1610, and 1580 September, and resistance is at 1670, 1690, and 1710 September.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/03/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
133,553 87,177 53,604 9,306 8,427 2,290
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 65.3% 40.1% 7.0% 6.3% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
165 58 44 14 6 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
6,690 42,338 9,547 1,835 1,721 10,479
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.0% 31.7% 7.1% 1.4% 1.3% 7.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
12 40 13 13 12 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,230 5,149
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.7% 3.9%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were a Little lower in New York and in London. Neither market could hold any rally attempts. Ideas of big world production are keeping the speculators selling. There is no real selling interest from producers as they hope for higher prices. Brazil producers are also worried about Cane production even with the rapid early harvest. Movement from mills to ports has been slow due to the high freight costs left from the recent truckers strike. However, there is still a lot of Sugar in the world and the futures price action implies that there is enough movement right now to keep the market well supplied. India is exporting Sugar again and could export more than 2.0 million tons. China has reached a deal to buy at least part of the Indian surplus, so hopes are that India will not offer as much into the world market. However, a potential source of big demand might also be lost. Conditions have improved in the last couple of weeks as monsoon rains have arrived. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1090 October. Support is at 1120, 1090, and 1060 October, and resistance is at 1180, 1200, and 1250 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 328.00 and 316.00 October. Support is at 326.00, 323.00, and 317.00 October, and resistance is at 336.00, 340.00, and 346.00 October.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/03/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
98,812 40,189 74,911 20,625 2,046 929
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 40.7% 75.8% 20.9% 2.1% 0.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
143 44 56 15 6 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
20,089 7,030 6,549 4,183 1,916 1,385
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
20.3% 7.1% 6.6% 4.2% 1.9% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 10 14 7 8 7
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,863 4,046
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 4.1%

COCOA
General Comments futures were lower in both markets Friday. Trends are trying to turn up in both markets, but the selling has been too strong at resistance levels so far. Ideas that current weather conditions are good for crops in West Africa continue to circulate. There have been reports of good rains throughout the region and big yields are possible. There are still some concerns about demand as consumers are looking for healthier products to consume in many cases and as the world economy is still an issue. Ideas are that demand can start to improve with the lower price levels, but the world economic situation is still in a flux. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa, but most main areas will be dry. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 4.867 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 126 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2680 and 2900 September. Support is at 2400, 2380, and 2340 September, with resistance at 2540, 2560, and 2590 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1910, 1930, and 2010 September. Support is at 1770, 1740, and 1710 September, with resistance at 1850, 1900, and 1920 September.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 07/03/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
295,304 160,284 216,983 23,022 15,298 18,260
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 54.3% 73.5% 7.8% 5.2% 6.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
162 51 49 17 7 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
47,196 2,149 19,209 2,070 492 21,494
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.0% 0.7% 6.5% 0.7% 0.2% 7.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
44 6 12 10 10 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,768 1,419
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.3% 0.5%

DJ Nigeria’s 2018-2019 Cocoa Production Seen Rising to 310,000 Tons -Official
By Obafemi Oredein
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
IBADAN, Nigeria–Cocoa production in Nigeria for the 2018-2019 season is expected at 310,000 metric tons, an official of the country’s national cocoa body said Friday.
That would constitute a rise from the 300,000 tons for the current season, and is partly attributable to favorable weather in the country’s two cocoa-growing regions, said Robo Adhuze of the Cocoa Association of Nigeria.
Output is also set to rise because the new farms established under the national cocoa rebirth program that ran from 1999 to 2007 are bearing fruit and boosting cocoa stocks, he said. Mr. Adhuze said the usage of approved inputs by farmers and the planting of a new hybrid variety of high-yielding cocoa developed by the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria are also contributing factors.
“Even though the inputs, including good agrichemicals, are expensive farmers still want to use them. In the long run they get more and better cocoa,” said Mr. Adhuze.
The ample amount of rain that has been falling since last month in the cocoa-producing southwest and southeast has benefited cocoa development, and CAN said that the first harvest of the 2018-2019 main crop is expected to start in August–one month ahead of schedule.
“We are getting regular rainfall, there are flowers, cherelles [tiny pods] and big healthy-looking pods on cocoa trees and no threat of the black-pod disease that can damage a lot of cocoa,” said Karimu Olatunde, a farmer in Ibadan in Oyo state.
The rainy season runs from May to October and the dry season from November to April.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322