Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. May Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Jul 6
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-May 2018—- —-Apr 2018—-
-coffee kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 134,521,017 296,618,842 126,093,634 278,036,463
coffee, roasted 6,981,332 15,393,837 6,570,022 14,486,899
instant 4,209,528 9,282,009 4,248,372 9,367,660
cocoa beans 38,311,296 84,476,408 49,182,565 108,447,556
10 lbs or over 2,683,952 5,918,114 3,308,743 7,295,778
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 9,435,519 20,805,319 10,360,253 22,844,358
not defatted 2,092,487 4,613,934 2,257,309 4,977,366
defatted 2,850,468 6,285,282 3,425,648 7,553,554
unsweetened 7,748,136 17,084,640 9,349,357 20,615,332
sweetened 49,112 108,292 47,419 104,559
coating 3,112,154 6,862,300 2,915,497 6,428,671
chocolate 9,151,078 20,178,127 12,181,530 26,860,274
General Comments: Cotton was mostly lower yesterday as traders waited for the Trump tariffs to go into effect against China. China is expected to retaliate, and will buy much less US Cotton if it does move against the US>. US crop conditions are holding and as demand prospects are not as good as they were a couple of months ago. Planted area was increased despite bad weather in West Texas, so production ideas are higher. The weekly export sales report last week showed Chinese cancellations, so the move away from US Cotton by China has now begun. Wire reports indicate that tariffs against US Cotton have forced buyers in China to look to India. Forward sales have increased and prices there have held firm. The US would have been the primary source, now India and other countries are doing the selling. Crop conditions are improved as the Southeast has been a little drier. Texas now is hot and dry again. The weather is improving in India and China as monsoon rains are reported in India and as China has turned drier. The monsoon has started in southern and central India, but Pakistan remains very hot and dry and is still facing drought conditions. , and rains are now moving into northwest India and Pakistan
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get mostly dry weather until showers return this weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions, but some showers are possible this weekend. Temperatures will be above too much above normal. The USDA average price is now 79.44 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 91,351 bales, from 92,135 bales yesterday. ICE said that 9 delivery notices were posted against July Contracts today and that total deliveries are now 676 contracts. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 18,000 bales this year and 268,200 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 1,000 bales this year and -33,400 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 8100, 7880, and 7780 December. Support is at 8180, 8080, and 8030 December, with resistance of 8440, 8530, and 8560 December.
DJ U.S. May Cotton Exports-Jul 6
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
May 18 Apr 18 Mar 18 May 17(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 25,684,587 20,321,427 28,917,556 8,187,832
1 to 1 1/8 inch 151,338,680 167,507,050 166,100,972 99,016,232
upland 1 1/8 and over 246,435,499 279,690,549 299,191,902 228,701,165
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 9,622,524 11,155,466 12,801,458 10,804,720
All cotton 433,081,290 478,674,492 507,011,888 346,709,949
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
May 18 Apr 18 Mar 18 May 17(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 117,968 93,336 132,817 37,606
1 to 1 1/8 inch 695,093 769,354 762,896 454,778
upland 1 1/8 and over 1,131,869 1,284,608 1,374,177 1,050,416
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 44,196 51,237 58,797 49,626
All cotton 1,989,126 2,198,534 2,328,687 1,592,426
General Comments: FCOJ was higher again yesterday as some tropical waves started to cross the Atlantic. None of them appears likely to produce a damaging tropical storm, but the waves are coming so the risk of damage is somewhat more elevated Traders will watch them both, with on located already in the Gulf of Mexico and the other just off the African coast. Florida weather remains good and demand prospects remain poor, especially with the potential for lost Business with the EU. The tariff wars between the US and the EU are hurting export demand ideas. The EU imports a lot of FCOJ and these exports will most likely be hurt due to retaliation that will be made by Europe that included increased tariffs on US FCOJ. The growing conditions in Florida should remain good as the rainy season appears to be underway. Florida producers are seeing golf ball sized or larger fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used. Brazil could use more rain as Sao Paulo has been hot and mostly dry. The harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July contracts this morning and that total deliveries are now 114 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 169.00 and 176.00 September. Support is at 163.00, 160.00, and 158.00 September, with resistance at 169.00, 171.00, and 172.00 September.
General Comments Futures were lower as the market started to feel offers from Brazil and a few more from Vietnam. Brazil was the key as the weather remains good for harvesting and as production is thought to be very big. However, the US Dollar is showing that a top could be forming on the charts, and that might finally mean that Coffee futures are getting to a low. London is falling on ideas of good world availability of Robusta, but producers there have been reluctant to offer. It has been dry in Vietnam, and there is little on offer from that origin as producers want to see how big the next crop will be and try to wait for higher prices. Robusta offers from Vietnam are still down and traders say internal supplies are tight due to a smaller than expected harvest last year. It remains mostly dry in Arabica areas of Brazil, and there is no rain in the forecast for the next week. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Speculators anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have remained short in the market.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.062 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 105.44 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted in New York and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,254 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 109.00 September. Support is at 109.00, 106.00, and 103.00 September, and resistance is at 112.00, 115.00 and 118.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1670, 1640, and 1610 September, and resistance is at 1790, 1710, and 1730 September.
General Comments: Futures were mixed in New York nd mostly a little lower in London. Neither market could hold any rally attempts, and the day was disappointing for any bullish traders. Ideas of big world production are keeping the speculators selling. There is no real selling interest from producers as they hope for higher prices. Brazil producers are also worried about Cane production even with the rapid early harvest. Movement from mills to ports has been slow due to the high freight costs left from the recent truckers strike. However, there is still a lot of Sugar in the world and the futures price action implies that there is enough movement right now to keep the market well supplied. India is exporting Sugar again and could export more than 2.0 million tons. China has reached a deal to buy at least part of the Indian surplus, so hopes are that India will not offer as much into the world market. However, a potential source of big demand might also be lost. Conditions have improved in the last couple of weeks as monsoon rains have arrived. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1090 October. Support is at 1120, 1090, and 1060 October, and resistance is at 1180, 1200, and 1250 October. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 328.00 and 316.00 October. Support is at 323.00, 317.00, and 316.00 October, and resistance is at 336.00, 340.00, and 346.00 October.
General Comments futures were higher in both markets yesterday. Trends are trying to turn up in both markets. Speculators have been the best buyers. The current chart patterns suggest that rallies are possible, but the fundamentals suggest that prices are about where they should be and that prices could fall again as the main crop harvest comes closer. Ideas that current weather conditions are good for crops in West Africa continue to circulate. There have been reports of good rains throughout the region and big yields are possible. There are still some concerns about demand as consumers are looking for healthier products to consume in many cases and as the world economy is still an issue. Ideas are that demand can start to improve with the lower price levels, but the world economic situation is still in a flux. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa, but most main areas will be dry. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 4.876 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 126 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2680 and 2900 September. Support is at 2430, 2380, and 2340 September, with resistance at 2540, 2560, and 2590 September. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1910, 1930, and 2010 September. Support is at 1780, 1740, and 1710 September, with resistance at 1850, 1900, and 1920 September.
DJ Nigeria’s 2018-2019 Cocoa Production Seen Rising to 310,000 Tons- Official
By Obafemi Oredein
Special to Dow Jones Newswires
IBADAN, Nigeria–Cocoa production in Nigeria for the 2018-2019 season is expected at 310,000 metric tons, an official of the country’s national cocoa body said Friday.
That would constitute a rise from the 300,000 tons for the current season, and is partly attributable to favorable weather in the country’s two cocoa-growing regions, said Robo Adhuze of the Cocoa Association of Nigeria.
Output is also set to rise because the new farms established under the national cocoa rebirth program that ran from 1999 to 2007 are bearing fruit and boosting cocoa stocks, he said. Mr. Adhuze said the usage of approved inputs by farmers and the planting of a new hybrid variety of high-yielding cocoa developed by the Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria are also contributing factors.
“Even though the inputs, including good agro-chemicals, are expensive farmers still want to use them. In the long run they get more and better cocoa,” said Mr. Adhuze.
The ample amount of rain that has been falling since last month in the cocoa-producing southwest and southeast has benefited cocoa development, and CAN said that the first harvest of the 2018-2019 main crop is expected to start in August–one month ahead of schedule.
“We are getting regular rainfall, there are flowers, cherelles [tiny pods] and big healthy-looking pods on cocoa trees and no threat of the black-pod disease that can damage a lot of cocoa,” said Karimu Olatunde, a farmer in Ibadan in Oyo state.
The rainy season runs from May to October and the dry season from November to April.