About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 09, 2018 921 Jul 05, 2018
CORN July Jul. 09, 2018 259 Jun 29, 2018
ETHANOL July Jul. 09, 2018 48 Jun 28, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul. 09, 2018 43 Jul 02, 2018
OATS July Jul. 09, 2018 7 Jun 27, 2018
SOYBEAN July Jul. 09, 2018 437 Jul 05, 2018
WHEAT July Jul. 09, 2018 1 Jun 26, 2018

DJ U.S. May Grain Imports-Jul 6
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-May 2018—- —-Apr 2018—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 465,471 1,026,364 922,129 2,033,294
spring wheat 21,538,414 47,492,203 20,225,934 44,598,184
winter wheat 5,661,005 12,482,516 36,470,726 80,417,951
wheat/meslin 40,533,248 89,375,812 58,748,103 129,539,567
TOTAL WHEAT 68,198,138 150,376,894 116,366,892 256,588,997

barley 9,461,222 20,861,995 8,566,137 18,888,332
oats 973,220 2,145,950 1,610,147 3,550,374
corn 32,647,078 71,986,807 50,394,654 111,120,212
other corn 8,632,822 19,035,373 23,092,817 50,919,661
TOTAL CORN 41,279,900 91,022,180 73,487,471 162,039,874

DJ U.S. May Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Jul 6
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-May 2018—- —-Apr 2018—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 48,930,321 107,891,358 31,384,835 69,203,561
palm kernel oil 24,660,493 54,376,387 31,252,646 68,912,084
palm oil 144,861,605 319,419,839 119,300,474 263,057,545
soybean 35,563,893 78,418,384 56,286,158 124,110,978
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 15,480,911 34,135,409 13,029,064 28,729,086
rapeseed oil
edible 136,929,842 301,930,302 146,295,654 322,581,917
rapeseed oil,
inedible 34,689 76,489 3,926 8,657

DJ U.S. May Grain Exports-Jul 6
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
May 18 Apr 18 Mar 18 May 17(*)
Barley 2,086,948 1,519,432 2,701,120 2,127,529
Corn /1 7,869,046,000 7,712,105,000 6,489,559,000 5,353,163,000
Sorghum 91,361,000 787,437,000 985,584,000 496,797,000
Oats 1,998,101 2,537,527 3,725,629 5,470,702
Rye 426,000 72,000 38,400 190,498
Wheat /1 1,826,033,449 1,942,027,188 2,153,377,139 3,136,083,578
wheat flour /1 26,568,671 21,109,039 22,615,847 30,115,126
Malt 39,241,068 37,454,319 36,219,478 41,182,082
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
May 18 Apr 18 Mar 18 May 17(*)
Barley 95,852 69,786 124,060 97,716
Corn /1 309,787,478 303,609,047 255,480,031 210,742,555
Sorghum 3,596,687 30,999,707 38,800,330 19,557,833
Oats 137,657 174,820 256,673 376,897
Rye 16,771 2,834 1,512 7,499
Wheat /1 67,094,555 71,356,552 79,122,253 115,230,163
wheat flour /1 585,739 465,375 498,594 663,925
Malt 86,511,761 82,572,653 79,850,294 90,790,965
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. May Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Jul 6
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
May 18 Apr 18 Mar 18 May 17(*)
soybeans 2,990,804,780 2,167,385,571 3,238,575,867 1,450,001,603
soyoil 195,695,908 96,322,199 91,412,839 73,134,417
crude 171,049,084 74,547,873 62,563,038 47,877,041
refined 578,273 133,339 255,788 165,843
other/1 23,792,737 21,357,712 28,340,078 24,725,101
hydrogenated 275,814 283,275 253,935 366,432
cottonseed oil 3,460,433 3,083,000 4,895,555 2,989,824
crude 21,928 51,938 1,400,307 16,066
refined 2,451,026 1,426,262 2,405,610 2,188,864
other/1 987,479 1,604,800 1,077,866 778,301
hydrogenated 0 0 11,772 6,593
sunseeds 297,129 202,581 111,232 143,596
sunseed oil 4,451,100 3,427,791 4,124,636 2,318,729
rapeseed 9,609,423 11,986,959 21,008,383 11,358,919
rapeseed oil 6,517,150 11,131,787 5,860,477 9,270,434
crude 2,539,610 6,945,909 1,371,148 3,649,495
refined 3,977,540 4,185,878 4,489,329 5,620,939
linseed meal 202,500 199,807 212,165 442,363
cottonseed meal 7,651,232 10,272,793 10,426,662 9,866,970
soymeal 931,728,038 939,851,833 1,087,910,534 586,449,587
soymeal/flour 265,184,355 252,977,286 186,996,953 130,254,535
soymeal hulls 14,865,000 12,332,000 8,776,000 7,969,000
lard 1,152,981 1,683,218 1,189,309 1,921,916
edible tallow 10,826,524 12,215,621 10,116,269 4,895,360
inedible tallow 26,948,754 31,923,007 27,895,674 28,684,089
ch white grease 320,147 8,033 0 29,865
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
May 18 Apr 18 Mar 18 May 17(*)
soybeans 109,892,136 79,636,970 118,996,072 53,277,892
soyoil 431,435,700 212,354,135 201,530,847 161,233,818
crude 377,098,745 164,349,955 137,927,913 105,550,826
refined 1,274,874 293,962 563,916 365,621
other/1 52,454,015 47,085,703 62,479,188 54,509,526
hydrogenated 608,066 624,515 559,831 807,844
cottonseed oil 7,628,950 6,796,853 10,792,853 6,591,435
crude 48,343 114,504 3,087,149 35,419
refined 5,403,588 3,144,370 5,303,463 4,825,620
other/1 2,177,019 3,537,979 2,376,288 1,715,860
hydrogenated 0 0 25,953 14,535
sunseeds 655,057 446,615 245,225 316,575
sunseed oil 9,812,997 7,556,987 9,093,267 5,111,923
rapeseed 21,185,155 26,426,726 46,315,564 25,042,134
rapeseed oil 14,367,859 24,541,394 12,920,142 20,437,812
crude 5,598,883 15,313,111 3,022,864 8,045,761
refined 8,768,976 9,228,283 9,897,278 12,392,051
linseed meal 223 220 234 488
cottonseed meal 8,434 11,324 11,493 10,876
soymeal 1,027,044 1,035,999 1,199,204 646,443
soymeal flour/me 292,313 278,857 206,127 143,580
soymeal hulls 16,386 13,594 9,674 8,784
lard 2,541,888 3,710,861 2,621,978 4,237,100
edible tallow 23,868,404 26,930,839 22,302,559 10,792,423
inedible tallow 59,411,843 70,378,195 61,499,445 63,237,602
ch white grease 705,803 17,710 0 65,841

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jul 6
For the week ended Jun 28, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 440.1 0.0 5992.0 8392.5 4511.2 0.0
hrw 136.6 0.0 1468.6 2892.2 1117.2 0.0
srw 85.8 0.0 746.1 892.5 545.6 0.0
hrs 83.6 0.0 1931.1 2302.3 1489.0 0.0
white 133.1 0.0 1718.0 2103.3 1233.7 0.0
durum 1.0 0.0 128.4 202.0 125.8 0.0
corn 440.7 232.1 57693.3 55602.5 12527.1 4519.9
soybeans 561.6 458.7 57291.9 59726.6 7739.6 7982.2
soymeal 132.8 61.6 11508.0 10003.1 2387.2 452.4
soyoil 36.6 3.8 967.9 989.6 182.5 19.3
upland cotton 18.0 268.2 16186.4 14559.9 2663.5 5581.4
pima cotton 1.0 -33.4 637.2 628.3 83.5 167.7
sorghum 37.2 0.0 5197.3 4503.1 348.1 38.0
barley 0.0 0.0 48.9 29.9 45.3 0.0
rice 27.1 13.5 2935.3 3684.4 284.3 44.8

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were higher for one more day on bad weather in Europe and Russia that is impacting yield potential for the crops. The US Dollar was lower in range trading and the Dollar Index could be completing a top. The US harvest that is now moving passed the halfway point. The market remains mostly concerned about East Europe and Russia, but Australia has also had drought problems. These areas remain mostly hot and dry, but there have been some showers recently in parts of Ukraine. Australia is another producing country where some rains are badly needed, but only some showers have been reported. Production estimates have been dropping. On the other hand, Canada and the northern Great Plains have been getting better rains. The US Winter Wheat harvest is moving north in the Great Plains and Midwest. Yield reports in the Great Plains have been highly variable, but Midwest yield reports have been good. Protein levels for Great Plains Wheat have been strong as is usual during warm and dry growing seasons. The domestic demand for HRW remains very strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some showers late in the week and a dry weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see drier conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers today and late this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Egypt bought 120,000 tons of Russian Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 497, 493, and 480 September, with resistance at 509, 521, and 524 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 520 and 523 September. Support is at 490, 487, and 469 September, with resistance at 506, 512, and 521 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 543, 539, and 526 September, and resistance is at 555, 559, and 562 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher again yesterday as the market keeps reacting to the tight supply situation and as bearish speculators buy themselves out of bad trades. The stocks reports last Friday showed that a very tight supply situation has developed and is developing for old crop Rice. The market overall shows the tight nearby supplies with farmers in the US mostly sold out. The crop has been running a little late this year and there are ideas that there will not be much new crop Rice available to deliver against the September contract. That means that bull spreads should continue to work for a while longer. Most of the US crop appears in good shape.
Overnight News: The Delta should see mostly dry weather today and showers on Friday and Saturday, then more dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1205 and 1266 September. Support is at 1170, 1164, and 1152 September, with resistance at 1200, 1211, and 1214 September.

DJ Global Rice Prices up 1.5% Driven by Strong Japonica Rice Prices — Market Talk
0350 GMT – Global rice prices were up 1.5% in May driven by a sharp uptick in the price of Japonica rice, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization rice price index; “Price increases were more evident in the United States’ Japonica market and in Thailand’s fragrant segment during June.” Furthermore, it notes that in Thailand, Hom Mali rice rose 5% to an all time high due to tighter export following production shortfalls incurred in 2017.(lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed near unchanged. Crop conditions are mostly good here, but feed grains in Europe and Russia are being stressed due to the hot and dry weather there. The potential for a trade war with Mexico and other buyers keeps the market depressed. Corn still is a market with positive fundamentals and has a chance to move higher. The market will now have to pay more attention to the Midwest weather and will see a big crop coming as good conditions continue. Temperatures have turned hot for a few days and possibly could stay hot for a couple of weeks according to some of the computer models. . Prices could move significantly higher if a very big crop is not assured as the demand is consistent. There are still some dry pockets scattered around the Midwest, mostly in southern and western areas. Some northern areas have had way too much rain, with this area mostly concentrated near the Iowa-Minnesota border.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 349, 337, and 333 September. Support is at 347, 345, and 342 September, and resistance is at 359, 361, and 365 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 238, 233, and 230 September, and resistance is at 245, 247, and 251 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower again yesterday due to ideas of good weather and on continuing fears about new Chinese demand. The Soybeans crops have been very wet in the Midwest, and Soybeans prefer drier weather. Condition ratings remain high, but started to slip this week. The main problem for Soybean demand remains the US-China trade war. The tariffs are scheduled to start today. There does not appear to be much movement on either side right now, and some reports suggest that China is preparing for a trade war by telling crushers and other users of Soybeans to expect to import less in the coming season. The issue of intellectual property rights seems to be a big problem to get resolved, and it might be difficult as the Chinese say they are abiding by all agreements in the area. There will be retaliation, and it is possible that grains and oilseeds will see new or increased tariffs. USDA said that it will account for the potential changes to export demand starting with the July monthly supply and demand data.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 836, 824, and 812 August, and resistance is at 860, 868, and 882 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 318.00 August, and resistance is at 332.00, 335.00, and 337.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2870 and 2810 August. Support is at 2840, 2810, and 2790 August, with resistance at 2900, 2930, and 2950 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher yesterday. New demand isanticipated with the Trump tariffs going into effect today. Reports of improved conditions in the Prairies help keep selling interest alive on rallies, but some western areas remain too dry. Palm Oil was a little lower on some speculative long liquidation. Ideas that Malaysian production will drop a bit this month support futures overall. June demand should be weak again when the private sources release data early next week. Production ideas are about steady from last month. The exports reported so far by the private surveyors are well below the pace of last month. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 504.00, 503.00, and 500.00 November, with resistance at 510.00, 514.00, and 516.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed . Support is at 2270, 2240, and 2210 September, with resistance at 2320, 2350, and 2390 September.

Trade Projections for the Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Reports:
Observation period : Jun
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Tuesday, 10 Jul
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.36 mil tonnes, Down 11.1%
Exports – 1.19 mil tonnes, Down 7.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.15 mil tonnes, Down 1.2%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.53 mil tonnes, Down 2.1%
Exports – 1.29 mil tonnes, Down 15.7%
Ending Stocks – 2.17 mil tonnes, Down 0.5%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for showers and still warm today, then drier and cooler over the weekend. Hot and dry again next week..

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 53 July 146 July 62 July 55 July 25-Jul
July 55 September 66 July 55 July
August 52 September 50 September 56 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
July 13 July
August 10 August 85 September
September 210 September 12 September 85 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 5
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from ICE
Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 504.10 dn 2.80
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 516.90 dn 12.20
2 Can 503.90 dn 12.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 539.90 up 0.80
2 Can 526.90 up 0.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 585.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 590.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 592.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 595.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 587.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 592.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 595.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 597.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 587.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 490.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 2,295 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 207.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0365)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 06
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 301,874 lots, or 11.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 3,645 3,645 3,645 0 0 98
Sep-18 3,680 3,698 3,576 3,622 3,659 3,649 -10 253,646 188,060
Nov-18 – – – 3,726 3,726 3,726 0 0 8
Jan-19 3,767 3,792 3,678 3,724 3,760 3,745 -15 46,498 88,656
Mar-19 3,832 3,832 3,796 3,796 3,757 3,814 57 4 4
May-19 3,790 3,808 3,720 3,758 3,782 3,776 -6 1,694 6,518
Jul-19 – – – 3,814 3,883 3,814 -69 0 8
Sep-19 3,880 3,880 3,798 3,843 3,865 3,842 -23 32 202
Nov-19 – – – 3,824 3,846 3,824 -22 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 381,852 lots, or 6.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 1,780 1,780 1,779 1,779 1,779 1,779 0 1,734 13,922
Sep-18 1,779 1,783 1,774 1,779 1,780 1,777 -3 170,710 515,366
Nov-18 1,812 1,816 1,807 1,816 1,812 1,811 -1 89,612 34,696
Jan-19 1,847 1,850 1,838 1,848 1,842 1,844 2 97,292 534,874
Mar-19 1,880 1,880 1,872 1,880 1,876 1,877 1 792 3,446
May-19 1,916 1,918 1,911 1,917 1,914 1,914 0 21,712 105,426
Soymeal
Turnover: 5,213,378 lots, or 16.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 2,980 2,980 2,980 0 0 260
Aug-18 3,131 3,131 3,025 3,090 3,088 3,068 -20 2,852 332
Sep-18 3,137 3,157 3,042 3,106 3,106 3,112 6 2,934,904 1,712,258
Nov-18 3,168 3,200 3,082 3,150 3,152 3,166 14 177,804 138,140
Dec-18 3,197 3,197 3,121 3,148 3,166 3,165 -1 46 366
Jan-19 3,193 3,229 3,090 3,162 3,180 3,169 -11 1,905,414 1,877,206
Mar-19 3,033 3,062 2,946 3,010 3,018 3,020 2 1,756 5,578
May-19 2,852 2,881 2,780 2,834 2,841 2,835 -6 190,602 457,320
Palm Oil
Turnover: 399,398 lots, or 19.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,106 5,106 5,106 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 4,978 4,978 4,978 0 0 20
Sep-18 4,804 4,856 4,770 4,822 4,820 4,816 -4 269,362 334,136
Oct-18 – – – 4,838 4,838 4,838 0 0 6
Nov-18 – – – 4,930 4,930 4,930 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 4,968 4,972 4,968 -4 0 6
Jan-19 4,912 4,932 4,854 4,898 4,892 4,896 4 119,966 244,882
Feb-19 – – – 4,946 4,946 4,946 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 4,980 4,980 4,980 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,074 5,074 5,074 0 0 18
May-19 5,036 5,060 4,982 5,012 5,012 5,014 2 10,070 27,826
Jun-19 – – – 5,078 5,078 5,078 0 0 10
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 671,852 lots, or 38.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,412 5,412 5,412 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,504 5,504 5,504 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,588 5,644 5,564 5,614 5,574 5,608 34 426,448 646,094
Nov-18 5,712 5,758 5,668 5,758 5,610 5,714 104 20 38
Dec-18 – – – 5,832 5,726 5,832 106 0 16
Jan-19 5,762 5,816 5,732 5,782 5,752 5,776 24 221,324 475,800
Mar-19 5,884 5,884 5,814 5,814 5,922 5,848 -74 4 66
May-19 5,738 5,778 5,704 5,744 5,720 5,732 12 24,056 61,520
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322