About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 5
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 06, 2018 1046 Jul 03, 2018
CORN July Jul. 06, 2018 281 Jun 28, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul. 06, 2018 22 Jul 02, 2018
SOYBEAN July Jul. 06, 2018 468 Jul 03, 2018

DJ FAO Food Price Index Falls After Four Months of Gains
By David Hodari
LONDON–World food prices slipped in June, with decreases in cereals, vegetable oils, and dairy products outweighing gains in sugar and meat prices, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said Thursday.
The FAO’s food-price index was down 1.3% from May, when it hit its highest since October 2017, the organization said. That marked the first drop in the index since January.
Cereal prices fell 3.7% from May but remained 8% higher in June than in the same month last year. Sharp declines in wheat and corn prices drove the fall, “following similar trends observed across most commodities arising from heightened trade tension,” while rice prices climbed, the FAO said.
Dairy prices fell 0.9%, after climbing in the previous four months, the FAO said. Lower cheese prices, partly thanks to higher export availabilities from the U.S. and the EU, was a key driver, according to the report.
Vegetable oils fell 4.5% on month to a 29-month low, thanks to slipping palm, soy, and sunflower oil prices amid lackluster global demand and trade tensions affecting soybeans.
Sugar prices ticked 1.2% higher on month, after six consecutive months of falls. Fears over sugar production out of Brazil–the world’s largest producer–provided some support after heavy pressure amid forecasts of huge global production this season.
Meat prices inched up 0.3% on month, with rising bovine and pig meat prices slightly outweighing a fall in poultry and bovine prices, the FAO said.

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were higher on bad weather in Europe and Russia that is impacting yield potential for the crops. The US Dollar was lower in range trading and the Dollar Index could be completing a top. The US harvest that is now moving passed the halfway point. The market remains mostly concerned about East Europe and Russia, but Australia has also had drought problems. These areas remain mostly hot and dry, but there have been some showers recently in parts of Ukraine. Australia is another producing country where some rains are badly needed, but only some showers have been reported. Production estimates have been dropping. On the other hand, Canada and the northern Great Plains have been getting better rains. The US Winter Wheat harvest is moving north in the Great Plains and Midwest. Yield reports in the Great Plains have been highly variable, but Midwest yield reports have been good. Protein levels for Great Plains Wheat have been strong as is usual during warm and dry growing seasons. The domestic demand for HRW remains very strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some showers late in the week and a dry weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see drier conditions. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers today and late this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Egypt bought 120,000 tons of Russian Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 480, 476, and 474 September, with resistance at 501, 509, and 521 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 452 September. Support is at 469, 467, and 464 September, with resistance at 488, 496, and 503 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 526, 511, and 487 September. Support is at 526, 522, and 519 September, and resistance is at 544, 550, and 555 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher. The stocks reports last Friday showed that a very tight supply situation has developed and is developing for old crop Rice. The market overall shows the tight nearby supplies with farmers in the US mostly sold out. The crop has been running a little late this year and there are ideas that there will not be much new crop Rice available to deliver against the September contract. That means that bull spreads should continue to work for a while longer. Most of the US crop appears in good shape.
Overnight News: The Delta should see mostly dry weather today and showers on Friday and Saturday, then more dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1205 and 1266 September. Support is at 1152, 1144, and 1125 September, with resistance at 1177, 1193, and 1209 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Jul 5
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 16.49 10.55 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 16.12 10.91 0.00
Brokens 9.95 —- —-

DJ Thai Rice Export Prices Fall on Vietnamese Competition — Market Talk
0238 GMT – Export rice prices from Thailand, one of the world’s largest exporters, fell 6% to 7% in the week ended June 25 due to increased competition from Vietnam, according the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Thai rice prices are now at their lowest level since December 2017. Furthermore, a weakening in the Thai baht against the US dollar is also putting pressure on the commodity, with export sales being priced in US dollars. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher as the market continues to be concerned with the potential trade wars amid what are considered good crop conditions. Crop conditions are mostly good here, but feed grains in Europe and Russia are being stressed due to the hot and dry weather there. USDA showed a very slight decline in crop conditions on Monday and conditions appear to be holding so far this week. The potential for a trade war with Mexico and other buyers keeps the market depressed. Corn still is a market with positive fundamentals and has a chance to move higher. The market will now have to pay more attention to the Midwest weather and will see a big crop coming as good conditions continue. Temperatures have turned hot for a few days and possibly could stay hot for a couple of weeks according to some of the computer models. . Prices could move significantly higher if a very big crop is not assured as the demand is consistent. There are still some dry pockets scattered around the Midwest, mostly in southern and western areas. Some northern areas have had way too much rain, with this area mostly concentrated near the Iowa-Minnesota border. A trip to east central Wisconsin over the weekend showed that the Corn is very short
Overnight News: South Korea bought 137,000 tons of optional origin Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 349, 337, and 333 September. Support is at 345, 342, and 339 September, and resistance is at 355, 359, and 361 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 233, 230, and 227 September, and resistance is at 239, 242, and 245 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower again on Tuesday due to ideas of good weather and on continuing fears about new Chinese demand. USDA showed some deterioration in crop condition ratings last night. The Soybeans crops have been very wet in the Midwest, and Soybeans prefer drier weather.. The main problem for Soybean demand remains the US-China trade war. The tariffs are scheduled to start on July 6, but everyone hopes for a deal first. There does not appear to be much movement on either side right now, and some reports suggest that China is preparing for a trade war by telling crushers and other users of Soybeans to expect to import less in the coming season. The issue of intellectual property rights seems to be a big problem to get resolved, and it might be difficult as the Chinese say they are abiding by all agreements in the area. There will be retaliation, and it is possible that grains and oilseeds will see new or increased tariffs. USDA said that it will account for the potential changes to export demand starting with the July monthly supply and demand data.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 836, 824, and 812 August, and resistance is at 860, 868, and 882 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 318.00 August, and resistance is at 332.00, 335.00, and 337.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2870 and 2810 August. Support is at 2870, 2840, and 2810 August, with resistance at 2950, 2970, and 3010 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower yesterday. Reports of improved conditions in the Prairies help keep selling interest alive on rallies. Conditions are still somewhat favorable in the Prairies. Some areas of the western Prairies saw some beneficial rains last week, but some areas remain too hot and dry. StatsCan releases updated acreage projections on Friday, and Canola is expected to show increased planted area, Palm Oil was a little lower on some speculative long liquidation. Ideas that Malaysian production will drop a bit this month support futures overall. June demand should be weak again when the private sources release data early next week. Production ideas are about steady from last month. The exports reported so far by the private surveyors are well below the pace of last month. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 506.00, 503.00, and 500.00 November, with resistance at 514.00, 516.00, and 517.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2340 and 2390 September. Support is at 2290, 2270, and 2240 September, with resistance at 2350, 2390, and 2420 September.

Trade Projections for the Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Reports:
Observation period : Jun
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Tuesday, 10 Jul
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.36 mil tonnes, Down 11.1%
Exports – 1.19 mil tonnes, Down 7.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.15 mil tonnes, Down 1.2%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.53 mil tonnes, Down 2.1%
Exports – 1.29 mil tonnes, Down 15.7%
Ending Stocks – 2.17 mil tonnes, Down 0.5%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for showers and still warm today, then drier and cooler over the weekend. Hot and dry again next week..

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 53 July 146 July 62 July 55 July 25-Jul
July 55 September 66 July 55 July
August 52 September 50 September 56 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
July 13 July
August 10 August 85 September
September 210 September 12 September 85 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 28
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 509.90 up 4.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 535.40 dn 2.50
2 Can 522.40 dn 2.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 560.40 dn 2.50
2 Can 547.40 up 2.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 592.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 595.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 597.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 602.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 595.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 597.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 600.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 605.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 592.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 495.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 2,320 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 210.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0410)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 173,514 lots, or 6.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 3,645 3,645 3,645 0 0 98
Sep-18 3,658 3,690 3,622 3,681 3,659 3,659 0 142,586 178,802
Nov-18 3,695 3,751 3,695 3,742 3,727 3,726 -1 10 8
Jan-19 3,755 3,784 3,723 3,772 3,763 3,760 -3 28,960 82,300
Mar-19 3,770 3,779 3,724 3,724 3,729 3,757 28 6 4
May-19 3,789 3,802 3,752 3,795 3,805 3,782 -23 1,946 6,166
Jul-19 – – – 3,883 3,883 3,883 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,849 3,881 3,849 3,881 3,883 3,865 -18 6 202
Nov-19 – – – 3,846 3,846 3,846 0 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 363,806 lots, or 6.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 1,779 1,779 1,779 1,779 1,755 1,779 24 1,338 15,456
Sep-18 1,783 1,786 1,774 1,778 1,785 1,780 -5 208,660 538,936
Nov-18 1,818 1,819 1,808 1,815 1,818 1,812 -6 46,702 34,012
Jan-19 1,845 1,847 1,838 1,844 1,847 1,842 -5 90,052 530,990
Mar-19 1,875 1,879 1,872 1,876 1,879 1,876 -3 1,232 3,494
May-19 1,916 1,918 1,909 1,915 1,919 1,914 -5 15,822 105,932
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,298,634 lots, or 71.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 2,980 2,980 2,980 0 0 260
Aug-18 3,090 3,121 3,061 3,099 3,096 3,088 -8 66 652
Sep-18 3,118 3,129 3,075 3,126 3,134 3,106 -28 1,351,476 1,690,614
Nov-18 3,156 3,173 3,120 3,168 3,187 3,152 -35 89,502 131,966
Dec-18 3,164 3,180 3,157 3,179 3,185 3,166 -19 18 362
Jan-19 3,193 3,205 3,148 3,199 3,212 3,180 -32 790,520 1,913,608
Mar-19 3,042 3,042 2,996 3,033 3,048 3,018 -30 904 5,546
May-19 2,845 2,859 2,817 2,851 2,857 2,841 -16 66,148 426,316
Palm Oil
Turnover: 235,828 lots, or 11.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,106 5,106 5,106 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 4,978 4,978 4,978 0 0 20
Sep-18 4,812 4,848 4,784 4,822 4,838 4,820 -18 170,674 351,712
Oct-18 4,838 4,838 4,838 4,838 4,872 4,838 -34 2 6
Nov-18 – – – 4,930 4,930 4,930 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 4,972 4,972 4,972 0 0 6
Jan-19 4,886 4,916 4,860 4,898 4,910 4,892 -18 61,358 255,510
Feb-19 – – – 4,946 4,946 4,946 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 4,980 4,980 4,980 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,074 5,074 5,074 0 0 18
May-19 5,016 5,044 4,994 5,028 5,026 5,012 -14 3,794 26,520
Jun-19 – – – 5,078 5,078 5,078 0 0 10
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 265,524 lots, or 14.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,412 5,412 5,412 0 0 32
Aug-18 – – – 5,504 5,504 5,504 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,580 5,598 5,542 5,592 5,592 5,574 -18 187,666 643,500
Nov-18 – – – 5,610 5,610 5,610 0 0 52
Dec-18 – – – 5,726 5,744 5,726 -18 0 16
Jan-19 5,754 5,776 5,720 5,766 5,768 5,752 -16 69,490 478,598
Mar-19 5,922 5,922 5,922 5,922 5,864 5,922 58 2 66
May-19 5,718 5,744 5,686 5,736 5,730 5,720 -10 8,366 61,668
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322