Marc Nemenoff gives his readers an insight into the decision making process of a professional trader and analyst with 35+ years of market experience. He covers the markets with which he has had the best success throughout his career with. Contact Mr. Nemenoff at (312) 264-4310
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 15 lower at 144’28, 10 Yr. Notes 6 lower at 120’04 and 5 Yr. Notes 3.2 lower at 113’16.2. Treasuries are slightly lower for the week in spite of the yield curve continuing to flatten by 1-2 basis points. The spread in yield for the 10 Yr. Note vs. the 30 Yr. Bond has dipped to just below 12 basis points premium the 30 Yr. Bond. We continue to hold the out of the money puts on the 10 Yr. Notes. I will be a short seller should the bonds trade above 146’24 of either the 5 YR, 10 Yr. or 30 Yr. depending on risk tolerance. Monthly Jobs Report tomorrow.
Grains: Corn, Beans and Wheat have all worked lower over the past week as the Crop Report indicated more acreage planted than originally anticipated. Stocks for Corn were higher than expected and Bean stocks slightly below expectations. The question now is what will yields be even though we are only in the middle of the growing season? That being said, I think that it is a bit early to speculate on yield. Having been on the sidelines for last couple of weeks after losing on my last adventure of buying a break, I am once again willing to buy Corn.
Cattle: Over the last week Feeder Cattle climbed about 6.00 points as the Live Cattle rallied only 3.00 as the market reacted to lower feed grain prices. Last week I recommended selling April LC on a rally and we are now short above the 106.75 level.
Silver: Sept. Silver is currently 6 cents higher at 16.10. August Gold is currently 3.00 dollars higher at 1256.50. These metals may have put in a bottom over the last week at 15.80 and 1239.50 respectively. I remain long a small position and will add-on a break using a stop just below the recent lows to protect extra positions.
S&P’s: Sept. S&P’s are currently 21.00 higher at 2734.25. Resistance is currently 2737.00. Tomorrow tariffs on Chinese good are scheduled to begin and I feel this could have a negative impact. We also await earnings announcements and the Job’s Report. I am looking for a test of the 200 day moving average, now at 2655.00.
Currencies: I am on the sidelines.
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