About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jul 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
5 YR TREASURY NOTE June Jul. 05, 2018 37 Jun 29, 2018
2 YEAR TREASURY NOTE June Jul. 05, 2018 2581 Jun 28, 2018
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 05, 2018 1275 Jul 02, 2018
ROUGH RICE July Jul. 05, 2018 23 Jun 27, 2018
CORN July Jul. 05, 2018 369 Jun 20, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul. 05, 2018 152 Jul 02, 2018
OATS July Jul. 05, 2018 37 Jun 27, 2018
SOYBEAN July Jul. 05, 2018 692 Jun 29, 2018

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jul 2
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 28, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 06/28/2018 06/21/2018 06/29/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 709 0 0 807 2,926
CORN 1,537,871 1,540,434 1,127,210 45,759,861 48,713,138
FLAXSEED 0 0 1,028 24 1,713
MIXED 0 0 0 24 0
OATS 0 0 599 599 898
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 9,416 336 16,183 4,771,093 5,024,940
SOYBEANS 849,204 516,711 281,945 49,673,709 52,539,547
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 383
WHEAT 324,181 364,312 519,098 1,482,422 2,807,551
Total 2,721,381 2,421,793 1,946,063 101,688,539 109,091,096
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ IGC Trims Production Forecast for Current, Next Seasons
By David Hodari
LONDON–The International Grains Council said Monday that it has trimmed its forecast for global grain production in 2017-18 to 2,090 million metric tons due to lower-than-expected corn production.
The new forecast is a decrease of 1 million tons from the previous 2,091 million-ton forecast and a 2.3% drop from the previous season’s record 2,139 million tons, the IGC said.
The IGC also cut its 2018-19 production forecast, reducing May’s estimate by 12 million tons to 2,077 million tons. That figure would mark a second season of declining production after 2016-17’s record high. The IGC data revealed that a decrease in corn and wheat forecasts outweighed increases in soybean and rice predictions.
Driving the fall in the 2017-18 global-grain forecast was a 1 million-ton drop in expected corn production, now seen at 1,043 million tons. Soybean forecasts rose 1 million tons to 337 million tons and the IGC’s rice was flat at 488 million tons. The report said estimated wheat production remained at 758 million tons.

Crop Progress
Date 1-Jul 24-Jun 2017 Avg
Cotton Squaring 42 32 43 40
Cotton Setting Bolls 12 6 12 9
Corn Silking 17 5 9 8
Soybeans Blooming 27 12 17 13
Sorghum Headed 22 20 24 24
Peanuts Pegging 45 27 43 36
Sunflowers Planted 95 91 100 95
Rice Headed 15 7 13 14
Oats Headed 82 67 83 80
Winter Wheat Harvested 51 41 51 49
Spring Wheat Headed 58 34 56 48
Barley Headed 50 28 48 51

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Cotton This Week 6 18 33 36 7
Cotton Last Week 1 18 39 25 7
Cotton Last Year 2 10 34 43 11

Corn This Week 2 4 18 55 21
Corn Last Week 1 4 18 58 19
Corn Last Year 2 6 24 55 13

Soybeans This Week 1 5 23 55 16
Soybeans Last Week 1 4 22 58 15
Soybeans Last Year 2 7 27 54 10

Winter Wheat This Week 15 19 29 28 9
Winter Wheat Last Week 15 19 29 28 9
Winter Wheat Last Year 5 12 35 39 9

Spring Wheat This Week 1 4 18 64 13
Spring Wheat Last Week 2 3 18 63 14
Spring Wheat Last Year 13 20 30 30 7

Sorghum This Week 3 12 32 49 4
Sorghum Last Week 3 9 32 51 5
Sorghum Last Year 0 3 35 57 5

Rice This Week 0 5 24 56 15
Rice Last Week 0 5 25 57 13
Rice Last Year 0 4 23 51 22

Peanuts This Week 0 3 30 59 8
Peanuts Last Week 1 3 31 58 7
Peanuts Last Year 0 4 21 61 14

Oats This Week 3 3 21 60 13
Oats Last Week 3 3 22 59 13
Oats Last Year 7 13 27 45 8

Barley This Week 1 2 13 66 18
Barley Last Week 1 3 13 65 18
Barley Last Year 5 12 31 31 11

Pastures and Ranges This Week 6 14 29 41 10
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 6 14 31 41 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 5 10 28 47 10

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower on fund selling. The collapse appears tied to the trade wars as Mexico is a good buyer of US Wheat. The US Dollar was a little higher in range trading and should not have been a big problem for bullish traders yesterday. The overall price action remains weak due to price weakness in Black Sea ports, but these areas were firmer yesterday. The US harvest that is now moving passed the halfway point. The market remains mostly concerned about East Europe and Russia, but Australia has also had drought problems. These areas remain mostly hot and dry, but there have been some showers recently in parts of Ukraine. Australia is another producing country where some rains are badly needed, but only some showers have been reported. Production estimates have been dropping. On the other hand, Canada and the northern Great Plains have been getting better rains. The US Winter Wheat harvest is moving north in the Great Plains and Midwest. Yield reports in the Great Plains have been highly variable, but Midwest yield reports have been good. Protein levels for Great Plains Wheat have been strong as is usual during warm and dry growing seasons. The domestic demand for HRW remains very strong.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but some showers are possible in Eastern areas late in the week. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see frequent periods of precipitation, then drier conditions after the holiday. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers today and late this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Egypt bought 120,000 tons of Russian Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 480, 476, and 474 September, with resistance at 492, 501, and 509 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 452 September. Support is at 469, 467, and 464 September, with resistance at 481, 488, and 496 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 526, 511, and 487 September. Support is at 522, 519, and 516 September, and resistance is at 535, 544, and 550 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher after holding support on the daily charts. July was the leader to the upside as there is not a lot of old crop Rice around to deliver o the exchange. The stocks reports last Friday showed that a very tight supply situation has developed and is developing for old crop Rice. The market overall shows the tight nearby supplies with farmers in the US mostly sold out. The reports showed that much more area had been planted to Rice than expected. The market had expected about 2.73 million acres had been planted, but USDA found about 2.84 million had already been planted. The crop has been running a little late this year and there are ideas that there will not be much new crop Rice available to deliver against the September contract. That means that bull spreads should continue to work for a while longer. Most of the US crop appears in good shape.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1109, 1104, and 1087 September, with resistance at 1144, 1146, and 1152 September.

DJ Thai Rice Export Prices Fall on Vietnamese Competition — Market Talk
0238 GMT – Export rice prices from Thailand, one of the world’s largest exporters, fell 6% to 7% in the week ended June 25 due to increased competition from Vietnam, according the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Thai rice prices are now at their lowest level since December 2017. Furthermore, a weakening in the Thai baht against the US dollar is also putting pressure on the commodity, with export sales being priced in US dollars. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower as the market continues to be concerned with the potential trade wars amid what are considered good crop conditions. USDA showed a very slight decline in crop conditions overnight. Te export inspections report yesterday was strong, but the potential for a trade war with Mexico and other buyers keeps the market depressed. Corn still is a market with positive fundamentals and has a chance to move higher. The market will now have to pay more attention to the Midwest weather and will see a big crop coming as good conditions continue. Temperatures will now turn hot for a few days and possibly could stay hot for a couple of weeks according to some of the computer models. . Prices could move significantly higher if a very big crop is not assured as the demand is consistent. There are still some dry pockets scattered around the Midwest, mostly in southern and western areas. Some northern areas have had way too much rain, with this area mostly concentrated near the Iowa-Minnesota border. A trip to east central Wisconsin over the weekend showed that the Corn is very short
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 349, 337, and 333 September. Support is at 345, 342, and 339 September, and resistance is at 355, 359, and 361 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 235, 233, and 230 September, and resistance is at 242, 245, and 247 September.

Item : May 2017 : April 2018 : May 2018
Corn :
Crush :
Crude oil produced…………………………..1,000 pounds: 215,334 172,066 172,186
Refine :
Crude oil processed in refining……………….1,000 pounds: 202,535 188,003 200,211
Once refined oil produced…………………….1,000 pounds: 197,588 182,551 195,342
Consumption :
Crude oil removed for inedible use in processing..1,000 pounds: (D) (D) (D)
Once refined oil removed for use in processing….1,000 pounds: 203,805 184,173 205,840
Removed for edible use in processing…………1,000 pounds: (D) (D) (D)
Removed for inedible use in processing……….1,000 pounds: (D) (D) (D)
Stocks :
Crude oil on hand end of month………………..1,000 pounds: 19,436 68,184 59,499
Once refined oil on hand end of month………….1,000 pounds: 68,802 66,708 52,021
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower again yesterday due to ideas of good weather and on continuing fears about new Chinese demand. USDA showed some deterioration in crop condition ratings last night. The Soybeans crops have been very wet in the Midwest, and Soybeans prefer drier weather.. The main problem for Soybean demand remains the US-China trade war. The tariffs are scheduled to start on July 6, but everyone hopes for a deal first. There does not appear to be much movement on either side right now, and some reports suggest that China is preparing for a trade war by telling crusher and other users of Soybeans to expect to import less in the coming season. The issue of intellectual property rights seems to be a big problem to get resolved, and it might be difficult as the Chinese say they are abiding by all agreements in the area. There will be retaliation, and it is possible that grains and oilseeds will see new or increased tariffs. USDA said that it will account for the potential changes to export demand starting with the July monthly supply and demand data.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 848, 836, and 824 August, and resistance is at 868, 872, and 885 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 323.00, 320.00, and 318.00 August, and resistance is at 335.00, 337.00, and 341.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2870 and 2810 August. Support is at 2870, 2840, and 2810 August, with resistance at 2950, 2970, and 3010 August.

Soybean Crushing, Production, Consumption and Stocks – United States: May 2018 with Comparisons
————————————————————————————————————
Item : May 2017 : April 2018 : May 2018
————————————————————————————————————
Crush :
Soybeans crushed………………………………….tons: 4,739,387 5,149,147 5,174,040
Crude oil produced…………………………1,000 pounds: 1,839,342 1,964,922 1,966,511
Cake and meal produced…………………………….tons: 3,491,318 3,822,338 3,846,687
For animal feed…………………………………tons: 3,439,981 3,781,356 3,802,225
For edible protein products………………………tons: 51,337 40,982 44,462
Millfeed produced…………………………………tons: 240,712 257,585 262,574
:
Refine :
Crude oil processed in refining……………..1,000 pounds: 1,483,689 1,477,749 1,518,130
Once refined oil produced…………………..1,000 pounds: 1,452,877 1,437,977 1,460,035
:
Consumption :
Crude oil removed for inedible use in processing 1,000 pounds: 104,473 85,570 92,909
Once refined oil removed for use in processing..1,000 pounds: 1,604,898 1,430,438 1,531,290
Removed for edible use in processing……….1,000 pounds: 1,287,746 1,115,186 1,218,228
Removed for inedible use in processing……..1,000 pounds: 317,152 315,252 313,062
:
Stocks :
Cake and meal on hand end of month………………….tons: 375,156 404,468 391,812
Millfeed on hand end of month………………………tons: 52,836 47,658 41,315
Crude oil on hand end of month………………1,000 pounds: 1,888,717 2,316,192 2,002,934
Crusher…………………………………1,000 pounds: 878,587 924,045 834,579
Refiner…………………………………1,000 pounds: 400,412 452,654 458,395
Offsite…………………………………1,000 pounds: 609,718 939,493 709,960
Once refined oil on hand end of month………..1,000 pounds: 380,538 372,584 371,127
———————————————————————————————————–

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was closed for a holiday. Reports of improved conditions in the Prairies help keep selling interest alive on rallies. Conditions are still somewhat favorable in the Prairies. Some areas of the western Prairies saw some beneficial rains last week, but some areas remain too hot and dry. StatsCan releases updated acreage projections on Friday, and Canola is expected to show increased planted area, Palm Oil was a little lower on some speculative long liquidation. Ideas that Malaysian production will drop a bit this month support futures overall. June demand should be weak again when the private sources release data early next week. Production ideas are about steady from last month. The exports reported so far by the private surveyors are well below the pace of last month. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas.
Overnight News: Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 507.00, 503.00, and 500.00 November, with resistance at 514.00, 516.00, and 517.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2340 and 2390 September. Support is at 2290, 2270, and 2240 September, with resistance at 2350, 2390, and 2420 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry and warm early in the week, chances for showers and still warm starting tomorrow.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 53 July 146 July 62 July 55 July 25-Jul
July 55 September 66 July 55 July
August 52 September 50 September 56 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
July 13 July
August 215 September 12 August 88 September
September 235 September 14 September 88 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 28
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 509.90 up 4.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 535.40 dn 2.50
2 Can 522.40 dn 2.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 560.40 dn 2.50
2 Can 547.40 up 2.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 597.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 597.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 597.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 605.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 600.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 600.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 600.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 607.50 -02.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 592.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 492.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 2,330 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 215.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0460)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 158,750 lots, or 5.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 3,645 3,645 3,645 0 0 126
Sep-18 3,718 3,725 3,668 3,681 3,715 3,694 -21 134,556 172,286
Nov-18 3,792 3,792 3,792 3,792 3,715 3,792 77 2 8
Jan-19 3,820 3,820 3,764 3,776 3,806 3,787 -19 21,290 76,080
Mar-19 3,809 3,838 3,809 3,838 3,823 3,823 0 4 6
May-19 3,849 3,870 3,703 3,807 3,853 3,830 -23 2,850 5,116
Jul-19 – – – 3,908 3,908 3,908 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,928 3,936 3,876 3,885 3,929 3,924 -5 48 206
Nov-19 – – – 3,886 3,886 3,886 0 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 270,122 lots, or 4.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 1,774 1,774 1,774 0 0 17,718
Sep-18 1,784 1,788 1,780 1,786 1,787 1,784 -3 141,890 560,758
Nov-18 1,815 1,820 1,811 1,818 1,819 1,816 -3 32,322 33,550
Jan-19 1,846 1,852 1,839 1,849 1,851 1,845 -6 83,384 528,940
Mar-19 1,882 1,883 1,875 1,881 1,886 1,878 -8 712 3,590
May-19 1,917 1,924 1,910 1,923 1,924 1,916 -8 11,814 102,510
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,970,478 lots, or 94.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 2,885 3,020 2,885 3,000 3,059 3,002 -57 234 260
Aug-18 3,162 3,162 3,104 3,120 3,137 3,119 -18 122 618
Sep-18 3,175 3,188 3,111 3,138 3,162 3,148 -14 1,542,246 1,796,550
Nov-18 3,209 3,227 3,152 3,184 3,202 3,200 -2 384,832 128,972
Dec-18 3,184 3,186 3,184 3,186 3,220 3,185 -35 6 362
Jan-19 3,246 3,256 3,172 3,217 3,230 3,217 -13 938,136 1,952,768
Mar-19 3,072 3,078 3,018 3,051 3,064 3,053 -11 1,078 5,478
May-19 2,897 2,908 2,844 2,866 2,893 2,872 -21 103,824 417,930
Palm Oil
Turnover: 327,748 lots, or 16.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,106 5,106 5,106 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 4,978 4,978 4,978 0 0 20
Sep-18 4,870 4,898 4,834 4,864 4,856 4,864 8 236,734 370,516
Oct-18 – – – 4,882 4,880 4,882 2 0 8
Nov-18 – – – 4,900 4,900 4,900 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 4,942 4,942 4,942 0 0 6
Jan-19 4,950 4,964 4,910 4,932 4,942 4,934 -8 88,612 261,298
Feb-19 – – – 5,028 5,036 5,028 -8 0 6
Mar-19 – – – 4,980 4,980 4,980 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,074 5,082 5,074 -8 0 18
May-19 5,058 5,074 5,026 5,038 5,060 5,044 -16 2,396 30,812
Jun-19 5,088 5,088 5,072 5,076 5,068 5,078 10 6 10
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 351,836 lots, or 19.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,402 5,400 5,402 2 0 32
Aug-18 – – – 5,494 5,494 5,494 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,608 5,614 5,562 5,596 5,586 5,594 8 225,980 661,150
Nov-18 – – – 5,610 5,610 5,610 0 0 52
Dec-18 – – – 5,744 5,736 5,744 8 0 16
Jan-19 5,780 5,800 5,742 5,772 5,764 5,774 10 112,414 485,922
Mar-19 – – – 5,864 5,864 5,864 0 0 64
May-19 5,772 5,772 5,706 5,744 5,768 5,740 -28 13,442 57,682
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322