Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower in reaction to the weekly export sales report. The report showed Chinese cancellations, so the move away from US Cotton by China has now begun. Wire reports indicate that tariffs against US Cotton have forced buyers in China to look to India. Forward sales have increased and prices there have held firm. The US would have been the primary source, now India and other countries are doing the selling. Crop conditions are improved as some rains have been seen in Texas and as the Southeast has been a little drier. Texas now has turned hot and dry again. The weather is improving in India and China as monsoon rains are reported in India and as China has turned drier. The monsoon has started in southern and central India, but Pakistan remains very hot and dry and is still facing drought conditions. The drought in Pakistan is turning serious as some irrigation supplies are starting to run out and as some Wells start to run dry. USDA will issue its quarterly stocks and planted area reports on Friday, and planted area should be a little higher.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above too much above normal. The USDA average price is now 80.91 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 92,799 bales, from 91,960 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 delivery notices were posted against July Contracts today and that total deliveries are now 649 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 8100, 7880, and 7780 December. Support is at 8300, 8150, and 8030 December, with resistance of 8440, 8530, and 8560 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Jun 28
As of Jun 22. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Jul 18 3 15,195 -15,192 76 1,221 -1,145
Oct 18 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 18 55,309 55,310 -1 21,405 20,986 419
Mar 19 35,182 35,570 -388 1,972 2,024 -52
May 19 16,558 16,842 -284 208 37 171
Jul 19 18,135 17,645 490 684 684 0
Dec 19 10,958 11,137 -179 14,029 13,597 432
Mar 20 2,715 2,747 -32 208 208 0
May 20 683 683 0 0 0 0
Jul 20 1,035 1,035 0 0 0 0
Dec 20 321 321 0 527 262 265
Total 140,899 156,485 -15,586 39,109 39,019 90
Jul 18 932 21,960 -21,028
Oct 18 140 92 48
Dec 18 184,308 197,234 -12,926
Mar 19 45,767 45,867 -100
May 19 6,296 5,401 895
Jul 19 5,713 5,359 354
Dec 19 15,604 14,651 953
Mar 20 188 185 3
May 20 0 0 0
Jul 20 0 0 0
Dec 20 334 334 0
Total 259,282 291,083 -31,801
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher in nearby months, but a little lower in the back months and the market remains in a big trading range as it waits for news. Florida weather remains good and demand prospects remain poor. There are no tropical systems on the horizon to hurt production potential. The tariff wars between the US and the EU are hurting export demand ideas. The EU imports a lot of FCOJ and these exports will most likely be hurt due to retaliation that will be made by Europe that included increased tariffs on US FCOJ. The growing conditions in Florida should remain good as the rainy season appears to be underway. Florida producers are seeing golf ball sized or larger fruit, and work in groves maintenance is active. Irrigation is being used. Brazil could use more rain as Sao Paulo has been hot and mostly dry. The harvest there is active.
Overnight News: Florida should get scattered showers each day. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather, but some showers tomorrow, and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 158.00, 156.00, and 153.00 September, with resistance at 165.00, 167.00, and 169.00 September.
General Comments Futures were lower in New York as the Real moved lower, and slightly lower in London as the market starts to look for offers from Vietnam. The charts show weakness once again in New York. London was relatively firm despite ideas of good world availability of Robusta. It has been dry in Vietnam, and there is little on offer from that origin as producers want to see how big the next crop will be and try to wait for higher prices. Both markets are in a short-term trading ranges. Robusta offers from Vietnam are still down and traders say internal supplies are tight due to a smaller than expected harvest last year. It remains mostly dry in Arabica areas of Brazil, and there is no rain in the forecast for the next week. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Speculators anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have remained short in the market.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 2.054 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 109.30 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get showers. Vietnam will get showers. ICE said that 21 delivery notices were posted in New York and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,194 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 113.00 and 109.00 September. Support is at 115.00, 112.00, and 109.00 September, and resistance is at 118.00, 119.00 and 120.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1680, 1670, and 1640 September, and resistance is at 1710, 1730, and 1750 September.
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and London in recovery trading. There is no real selling interest from producers as they hope for higher prices. Brazil producers are also worried about Cane production even with the rapid early harvest. Movement from mills to ports has been slow due to the high freight costs left from the recent truckers strike. However, there is still a lot of Sugar in the world. India is back to export Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. India has reached a deal to buy at least part of the Indian surplus, so hopes are that India will not offer as much into the world market. However, a potential source of big demand might also be lost. Conditions have improved in the last week as monsoon rains have arrived. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1200, 1190, and 1170 October, and resistance is at 1230, 1250, and 1260 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 336.00, 335.00, and 331.00 October, and resistance is at 346.00, 348.00, and 352.00 October.
General Comments Futures were higher in both markets in recovery trading. Ideas that current weather conditions are good for crops in West Africa continue to circulate. There have been reports of good rains throughout the region and big yields are possible. There are still some concerns about demand as consumers are looking for healthier products to consume in many cases and as the world economy is still an issue. Ideas are that demand can start to improve with the lower price levels, but the world economic situation is still in a flux. Fears about the EU economy are important to Cocoa as Europe is the largest per capita consumer of chocolate in the world. North American demand could be pressured due to the economic wars started in the US against its neighbors. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia. Nigeria said yesterday that its initial main crop harvest could begin in August.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa, but most main areas will be dry. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.891 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted against July contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 22 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2340, 2320, and 2260 September, with resistance at 2490, 2530, and 2560 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1680 September, with resistance at 1820, 1850, and 1900 September.