About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Survey: Jun. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for June 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on June 1, 2018 (million bushels)
USDA
Average Range June 1 2017 Mar 1 2018
Corn 5,263 5,004-5,450 5,229 8,888
Soybeans 1,218 1,115-1,283 966 2,107
Wheat 1,098 1,042-1,200 1,181 1,494
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 5,279 1,209 1,091
Agrivisor 5,245 1,213 1,065
Allendale 5,320 1,257 1,083
DC Analysis 5,251 1,212 1,076
Doane 5,250 1,225 1,090
EDFMan Capital 5,080 1,115 1,200
Farm Futures 5,219 1,235 1,090
Hueber Report 5,325 1,170 1,065
INTL FCStone 5,288 1,220 1,081
Linn 5,155 1,210 1,125
Sid Love Consulting 5,383 1,264 1,060
MaxYield 5,450 1,120 1,090
Northstar 5,245 1,253 1,100
Price Group 5,283 1,230 1,190
Prime-Ag 5,300 1,200 1,090
RJ O’Brien 5,243 1,222 1,087
US Commodities 5,263 1,199 1,075
Vantage RM 5,330 1,283 1,185
Western Milling 5,347 1,252 1,080
Zaner Ag Hedge 5,004 1,280 1,042

DJ Survey: 2018 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planted Acreage Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planted acreage, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planted Acreage
(million acres) USDA
Average Range March 2017
Corn 88.372 87.5-89.0 88.026 90.167
Soybeans 89.789 89.3-90.7 88.982 90.142
All Wheat 47.122 46.7-47.7 47.339 46.012
Winter Wheat 32.718 32.6-33.1 32.708 32.696
Spring Wheat 12.413 12.0-13.0 12.627 11.009
Durum Wheat 2.017 2.0-2.1 2.004 2.307
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat
Advanced Market 88.500 90.200 47.400 12.550 2.010
Agrivisor 88.200 89.300 47.200 32.800 12.400 2.000
Allendale 88.698 89.454 47.279 32.588 12.689 2.002
DC Analysis 89.000 89.600 47.100 32.700 12.400 2.000
Doane 87.600 89.700 46.812 32.708 12.100 2.004
EDFMan Capital 88.500 90.200 46.900 12.000 2.100
Farm Futures 88.400 89.900 47.700 33.100 12.700 2.000
Hueber Report 87.975 89.650 47.295 12.627 2.004
INTL FCStone 89.000 90.200 46.990 32.662 12.278 2.050
Linn 89.000 90.500 47.000 32.700 12.250 2.000
Sid Love Consultin 88.000 90.500 46.900 32.600 12.200 2.100
MaxYield 88.900 90.700 46.700
Northstar 88.000 89.300 47.000 32.708 12.300 2.004
Price Group 87.921 89.475 46.999 32.675 12.306 2.018
Prime-Ag 88.500 89.500 47.500 13.000
RJ O’Brien 88.500 89.600 46.800 32.700 12.100 2.000
US Commodities 88.400 89.332 47.200
Vantage RM 88.400 89.300 47.339 32.708 12.627 2.004
Western Milling 87.500 89.500 47.100 32.700 12.400 2.000
Zaner Ag Hedge 88.446 89.873 47.217 32.708 12.501 1.996

DJ USDA Hogs And Pigs: U.S. Inventory, By Class, Weight-Jun 28
Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Class, Weight Group,
and Quarter, United States, 2017-2018
====================================================================
2018 as
Item 2017 2018 percent
of 2017
=====================================================================
==- 1,000 Head ==- percent
March 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 70,701 72,938 103
Kept for breeding 6,098 6,210 102
Market 64,603 66,728 103
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 20,407 21,047 103
50-119 pounds 17,862 18,422 103
120-179 pounds 14,435 14,941 104
180 pounds and over 11,899 12,317 104
June 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 71,010 73,451 103
Kept for breeding 6,109 6,320 103
Market 64,901 67,131 103
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 20,647 21,387 104
50-119 pounds 18,741 19,388 103
120-179 pounds 13,646 14,198 104
180 pounds and over 11,867 12,157 102
September 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 73,559
Kept for breeding 6,117
Market 67,442
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 21,673
50-119 pounds 19,781
120-179 pounds 13,919
180 pounds and over 12,069
December 1 inventory
All hogs and pigs 73,695
Kept for breeding 6,179
Market 67,516
Market hogs and pigs by weight groups
Under 50 pounds 21,582
50-119 pounds 18,694
120-179 pounds 14,030
180 pounds and over 13,209
====================================================================

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jun 29
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL July Jul. 02, 2018 1040 Jun 22, 2018
ROUGH RICE July Jul. 02, 2018 124 Apr 25, 2018
CORN July Jul. 02, 2018 859 Apr 27, 2018
KC HRW WHEAT July Jul. 02, 2018 284 Jun 19, 2018
OATS July Jul. 02, 2018 156 Jun 22, 2018
SOYBEAN July Jul. 02, 2018 1075 Jun 14, 2018
WHEAT July Jul. 02, 2018 1 Jan 18, 2018

DJ Canadian 2018/19 Principal Field Crop Area – StatsCan
WINNIPEG–Following is Statistics Canada’s 2018/19
estimates of principal field crop area report. The figures are
as of June 2018, in thousands of acres. Source: Statistics
Canada.
——-acres——-
2018/19 2018/19 2017/18
June March
Barley 6,499 6,059 5,766
Edible Beans 301 246 333
Canary Seed 212 223 255
Canola 22,740 21,383 22,997
Chickpeas 469 346 160
Corn for grain 3,634 3,758 3,576
Fababeans 76 83 95
Flaxseed 885 989 1,040
Lentils 3,767 4,050 4,405
Mixed grains 356 262 303
Mustard seed 504 438 385
Oats 3,053 3,148 3,200
Peas, dry 3,603 3,868 4,093
Rye 201 309 260
Soybeans 6,320 6,452 7,282
Sugar beets 47 28 26
Summerfallow 1,786 1,921 2,200
Sunflower seed 79 45 65
Triticale 99 76 65
Total wheat 24,710 25,259 22,391
Durum wheat 6,185 5,777 5,205
Spring wheat 17,296 18,241 15,801
Winter wheat 1,228 1,242 1,385
*Total wheat includes spring wheat, durum wheat, and winter
wheat remaining after winterkill
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower despite a relatively positive weekly export sales report as traders prepared for the USDA reports tat will be released today. The overall price action remains weak due to price weakness in Black Sea ports and some forecasts for improved rains on the fringes of the production areas of eastern Europe and Russia. It is also sensing the US harvest that is now moving past the halfway point. The market remains mostly concerned about East Europe and Russia, but Australia has also had drought problems. These areas remain mostly hot and dry, but there have been some showers recently in parts of Ukraine. Australia is another producing country where some rains are badly needed, but only some showers have been reported. Production estimates have been dropping. On the other hand, Canada and the northern Great Plains have been getting better rains. The US Winter Wheat harvest is moving north in the Great Plains and Midwest. Yield reports in the Great Plains have been highly variable, but Midwest yield reports have been good. Protein levels for Great Plains Wheat have been strong as is usual during warm and dry growing seasons. The harvest is expected to move fast due to the generally sharply reduced yield potential due to dry conditions in the western Great Plains. The reports today are expected to show less Wheat planted area in the US due to bad weather at planting time in the northern Great Plains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see frequent periods of precipitation. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers today and late this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Egypt bought 120,000 tons of Russian Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 469 and 439 September. Support is at 480, 476, and 474 September, with resistance at 493, 499, and 509 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 452 September. Support is at 472, 469, and 467 September, with resistance at 488, 494, and 503 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 526 September. Support is at 534, 528, and 522 September, and resistance is at 550, 555, and 562 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower in July, and lower in the rest of the months before the USDA reports today. July is still trading at a Premium to new crop, but has fallen significantly against those months on spreads since late last week. The market overall shows the tight nearby supplies with farmers in the US mostly sold out. The crop has been running a little late this year and there are ideas that there will not be much new crop Rice available to deliver against the September contract. Trade tensions remain a focal point as Mexico is the largest buyer of US Rice. There were reports that Mexico will include a tariff on milled Rice, but not Rough Rice. Mexico mostly buys Rough Rice. Most of the US crop appears in good shape. Traders anticipate tight supplies at this time, and also anticipate a slight increase in planted area to justo ver 2.7 million acres.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1118, 1104, and 1087 September, with resistance at 1144, 1152, and 1155 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower despite stronger than expected weekly export sales as the market got ready for the USDA reports that will be released later this morning. Traders assume a slight increase in planted area for mostly historical reasons, but this might not happen as the weather at planting time was not real good. Corn still is a market with positive fundamentals and has a chance to move higher. The market will now have to pay more attention to the Midwest weather and see a big crop coming as good conditions continue. Temperatures will now turn hot for a few days and possibly could stay hot for a couple of weeks according to some of the computer models. Prices could move significantly higher if a very big crop is not assured as the demand is consistent. There are still some dry pockets scattered around the Midwest, mostly in southern and western areas. Some northern areas have had way too much rain, with this area mostly concentrated near the Iowa-Minnesota border.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 349 and 337 September. Support is at 352, 348, and 342 September, and resistance is at 357, 361, and 365 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 235, 233, and 230 September, and resistance is at 242, 245, and 247 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed mostly a little lower as trade fears and ideas of good crop conditions continue to hurt futures. Soybean Oil was about unchanged Trade war fears continue to dominate the market. Soybeans traders fear a large loss of business that can only be partially made up by other buyers. It is a weaker time of year for demand, but the tariffs have already damaged markets and producers. USDA said it will announce support measure by September if nothing happens on the trade front. These measures could include direct payments to producers as well as purchases of Soybeans by CCC as a price support mechanism. Soybeans were also lower on ideas of very good growing conditions, but crop conditions are going to change in the Midwest this week as all areas turn hot and dry. The heat was not expected to last more than a few days, but current models now suggest that the heat could extend for a couple of weeks. Some areas show problems for the crops due to too much rain. This is true near the Iowa-Minnesota border as well as in pockets south of Chicago. Overall conditions still appear good.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 130,632 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 863 August. Support is at 860, 848, and 836 August, and resistance is at 885, 896, and 904 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 330.00, 323.00, and 320.00 August, and resistance is at 337.00, 341.00, and 350.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2870 and 2810 August. Support is at 2900, 2870, and 2840 August, with resistance at 2950, 2970, and 3010 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower in reaction to the Chicago price action and as the market got ready for the Statscan planted area reports. July was sharply lower as last-minute longs got out of the market before the deliveries start. Reports of improved conditions in the Prairies help keep selling interest alive on rallies. Conditions are still somewhat favorable in the Prairies. Some areas of the western Prairies saw some beneficial rains last week, but some areas remain too hot and dry. StatsCan releases updated acreage projections on Friday, and Canola is expected to show increased planted area, Palm Oil was lower on long liquidation. June demand should be weak again when the private sources release data early next week. Production ideas are about steady from last month. The exports reported so far by the private surveyors are well below the pace of last month. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 509.00, 507.00, and 503.00 November, with resistance at 516.00, 517.00, and 520.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2340 and 2390 September. Support is at 2290, 2270, and 2240 September, with resistance at 2340, 2390, and 2420 September.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Jun 29
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended June 24, 2018. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This week 2080.8 536.3 160.9 268.4 64.1 1018.0 328.6 143.6 5150.8
Week ago 2207.0 556.8 152.3 298.2 71.0 1066.4 333.1 207.1 5433.5
Year ago 2786.3 649.3 160.3 302.5 89.4 808.3 131.3 146.9 5386.5
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 428.8 132.2 44.0 42.5 18.3 354.7 58.7 11.2 1175.8
Week Ago 430.4 120.6 44.1 43.6 18.8 357.0 76.2 23.7 1198.1
To Date 16704.6 3536.0 1971.5 2860.4 428.3 17414.4 2748.4 581.9 50097.3
Year Ago 16481.0 4639.9 1718.0 2481.7 359.4 17910.2 3854.7 380.7 51726.9
Terminal Receipts
This Week 325.4 36.3 0.0 18.7 3.4 189.7 14.7 57.2 695.5
Week Ago 330.4 64.3 4.0 28.1 10.5 228.3 34.7 71.6 894.4
To Date 16316.3 3889.9 212.4 1644.0 196.4 9862.2 1760.6 1107.0 40596.6
Year Ago 15900.8 5267.1 162.1 1170.0 244.1 10951.5 3140.7 928.9 43713.8
EXPORTS
This Week 371.6 36.7 24.1 10.0 9.0 192.4 23.6 129.8 887.7
Week Ago 360.2 33.0 20.0 3.0 1.1 225.7 62.2 71.5 836.7
To Date 14767.1 3517.5 1405.3 1748.8 275.8 9355.5 1867.5 1138.1 38160.8
Year Ago 12939.7 3886.9 1068.3 1141.9 259.6 9978.3 3310.0 756.8 37947.7
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 76.2 31.3 5.5 25.3 0.3 155.3 1.9 26.2 349.0
Week Ago 63.2 3.8 5.3 25.3 1.3 160.5 2.5 24.3 320.8
To Date 4234.4 674.4 277.9 1124.0 51.3 8414.1 207.4 781.9 18063.8
Year Ago 2648.9 284.3 235.2 1179.0 47.0 8187.2 156.8 477.3 14461.3
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
**Year Ago values for domestic disappearance and exports do not include
producer car volumes.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry and turning much warmer.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 53 July 146 July 62 July 55 July 25-Jul
July 55 September 66 July 55 July
August 52 September 50 September 56 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
July 13-Jul
August 10-Aug 85 September
September 210 September 12-Sep 85 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 28
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 509.90 up 4.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 535.40 dn 2.50
2 Can 522.40 dn 2.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 560.40 dn 2.50
2 Can 547.40 up 2.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 600.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 602.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 602.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 607.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 602.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug 605.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 605.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 610.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 592.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 495.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 2,330 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 225.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0340)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 145,246 lots, or 5.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 3,590 3,666 3,590 3,663 3,561 3,645 84 8 344
Sep-18 3,674 3,695 3,656 3,690 3,663 3,677 14 126,882 189,452
Nov-18 – – – 3,715 3,715 3,715 0 0 8
Jan-19 3,768 3,796 3,763 3,793 3,773 3,782 9 17,656 74,866
Mar-19 – – – 3,754 3,754 3,754 0 0 4
May-19 3,839 3,850 3,820 3,845 3,831 3,836 5 682 4,176
Jul-19 – – – 3,779 3,775 3,779 4 0 8
Sep-19 3,923 3,931 3,918 3,931 3,918 3,925 7 18 198
Nov-19 – – – 3,883 3,877 3,883 6 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 363,148 lots, or 6.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 1,762 1,770 1,748 1,770 1,759 1,754 -5 18,844 29,706
Sep-18 1,781 1,788 1,780 1,787 1,779 1,783 4 189,876 553,190
Nov-18 1,805 1,818 1,803 1,818 1,799 1,810 11 12,352 41,546
Jan-19 1,839 1,850 1,837 1,850 1,835 1,845 10 122,138 529,798
Mar-19 1,872 1,884 1,871 1,884 1,867 1,877 10 1,788 3,492
May-19 1,911 1,924 1,910 1,924 1,906 1,916 10 18,150 94,774
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,405,144 lots, or 75.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 2,997 3,035 2,985 2,993 2,998 3,011 13 676 6,236
Aug-18 3,099 3,101 3,099 3,100 3,099 3,100 1 22 552
Sep-18 3,122 3,150 3,108 3,140 3,117 3,129 12 1,475,800 1,836,550
Nov-18 3,158 3,187 3,149 3,182 3,155 3,166 11 79,644 157,252
Dec-18 3,181 3,201 3,165 3,185 3,171 3,184 13 12 360
Jan-19 3,190 3,221 3,183 3,217 3,190 3,205 15 770,074 1,856,636
Mar-19 3,033 3,056 3,031 3,049 3,034 3,045 11 564 5,540
May-19 2,863 2,885 2,863 2,882 2,863 2,876 13 78,352 401,542
Palm Oil
Turnover: 350,438 lots, or 17.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,106 5,106 5,106 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 4,844 4,844 4,844 0 0 22
Sep-18 4,828 4,882 4,820 4,856 4,802 4,856 54 273,080 392,440
Oct-18 4,846 4,894 4,846 4,894 4,840 4,862 22 6 8
Nov-18 – – – 4,900 4,878 4,900 22 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 4,942 4,920 4,942 22 0 6
Jan-19 4,936 4,970 4,930 4,942 4,912 4,946 34 73,426 251,244
Feb-19 – – – 4,934 4,902 4,934 32 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 4,980 4,980 4,980 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,082 5,048 5,082 34 0 18
May-19 5,066 5,084 5,052 5,066 5,024 5,068 44 3,926 32,002
Jun-19 – – – 5,068 5,024 5,068 44 0 8
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 400,310 lots, or 22.56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 5,398 5,460 5,234 5,340 5,302 5,326 24 88 62
Aug-18 – – – 5,494 5,470 5,494 24 0 10
Sep-18 5,564 5,604 5,550 5,570 5,558 5,580 22 277,130 687,762
Nov-18 – – – 5,610 5,610 5,610 0 0 52
Dec-18 – – – 5,736 5,714 5,736 22 0 16
Jan-19 5,740 5,788 5,734 5,756 5,740 5,760 20 113,964 477,510
Mar-19 5,874 5,882 5,802 5,882 5,818 5,852 34 18 64
May-19 5,784 5,820 5,774 5,782 5,794 5,794 0 9,110 51,722
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322