About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Survey: Jun. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for June 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on June 1, 2018 (million bushels)
USDA
Average Range June 1 2017 Mar 1 2018
Corn 5,263 5,004-5,450 5,229 8,888
Soybeans 1,218 1,115-1,283 966 2,107
Wheat 1,098 1,042-1,200 1,181 1,494
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 5,279 1,209 1,091
Agrivisor 5,245 1,213 1,065
Allendale 5,320 1,257 1,083
DC Analysis 5,251 1,212 1,076
Doane 5,250 1,225 1,090
EDFMan Capital 5,080 1,115 1,200
Farm Futures 5,219 1,235 1,090
Hueber Report 5,325 1,170 1,065
INTL FCStone 5,288 1,220 1,081
Linn 5,155 1,210 1,125
Sid Love Consulting 5,383 1,264 1,060
MaxYield 5,450 1,120 1,090
Northstar 5,245 1,253 1,100
Price Group 5,283 1,230 1,190
Prime-Ag 5,300 1,200 1,090
RJ O’Brien 5,243 1,222 1,087
US Commodities 5,263 1,199 1,075
Vantage RM 5,330 1,283 1,185
Western Milling 5,347 1,252 1,080
Zaner Ag Hedge 5,004 1,280 1,042

DJ Survey: 2018 U.S. Grain, Soybean Planted Acreage Estimates
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of acres, for U.S. grain and soybean planted acreage, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Grain, Soybean Planted Acreage
(million acres) USDA
Average Range March 2017
Corn 88.372 87.5-89.0 88.026 90.167
Soybeans 89.789 89.3-90.7 88.982 90.142
All Wheat 47.122 46.7-47.7 47.339 46.012
Winter Wheat 32.718 32.6-33.1 32.708 32.696
Spring Wheat 12.413 12.0-13.0 12.627 11.009
Durum Wheat 2.017 2.0-2.1 2.004 2.307
Winter Spring Durum
Corn Soybeans Wheat Wheat
Advanced Market 88.500 90.200 47.400 12.550 2.010
Agrivisor 88.200 89.300 47.200 32.800 12.400 2.000
Allendale 88.698 89.454 47.279 32.588 12.689 2.002
DC Analysis 89.000 89.600 47.100 32.700 12.400 2.000
Doane 87.600 89.700 46.812 32.708 12.100 2.004
EDFMan Capital 88.500 90.200 46.900 12.000 2.100
Farm Futures 88.400 89.900 47.700 33.100 12.700 2.000
Hueber Report 87.975 89.650 47.295 12.627 2.004
INTL FCStone 89.000 90.200 46.990 32.662 12.278 2.050
Linn 89.000 90.500 47.000 32.700 12.250 2.000
Sid Love Consultin 88.000 90.500 46.900 32.600 12.200 2.100
MaxYield 88.900 90.700 46.700
Northstar 88.000 89.300 47.000 32.708 12.300 2.004
Price Group 87.921 89.475 46.999 32.675 12.306 2.018
Prime-Ag 88.500 89.500 47.500 13.000
RJ O’Brien 88.500 89.600 46.800 32.700 12.100 2.000
US Commodities 88.400 89.332 47.200
Vantage RM 88.400 89.300 47.339 32.708 12.627 2.004
Western Milling 87.500 89.500 47.100 32.700 12.400 2.000
Zaner Ag Hedge 88.446 89.873 47.217 32.708 12.501 1.996

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jun 28
For the week ended Jun 21, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 563.7 0.0 5551.9 8017.2 4458.2 0.0
hrw 208.8 0.0 1332.1 2774.2 1067.3 0.0
srw 32.2 0.0 660.2 846.6 499.8 0.0
hrs 179.1 0.0 1847.5 2201.4 1549.5 0.0
white 117.6 0.0 1584.8 1990.9 1215.9 0.0
durum 26.0 0.0 127.4 204.1 125.8 0.0
corn 849.9 636.8 57252.6 55462.2 13601.2 4287.7
soybeans 358.5 642.3 56809.9 59361.0 8115.8 7523.4
soymeal 146.3 75.5 11375.2 9958.0 2505.3 390.8
soyoil 30.5 2.4 934.3 983.0 180.1 15.5
upland cotton -18.9 196.2 16168.4 14365.7 3057.1 5313.2
pima cotton 2.3 56.4 636.2 626.6 94.6 201.1
sorghum 0.0 0.0 5160.1 4431.6 320.1 38.0
barley 0.0 0.0 48.9 29.2 46.7 0.0
rice 31.4 0.0 2908.1 3575.8 294.5 31.3

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were a little higher as traders prepared for the USDA reports on Friday. Futures have held the last couple of days, but overall price action remains weak due to price weakness in Black Sea ports and some forecasts for improved rains on the fringes of the production areas of eastern Europe and Russia. It is also sensing the US harvest that is now moving past the halfway point. The market remains mostly concerned about East Europe and Russia, but Australia has also had drought problems. These areas remain mostly hot and dry, but there have been some showers recently in parts of Ukraine. Australia is another producing country where some rains are badly needed, but only some showers have been reported. Production estimates have been dropping. On the other hand, Canada and the northern Great Plains have been getting better rains. The US Winter Wheat harvest is moving north in the Great Plains and Midwest. Yield reports in the Great Plains have been highly variable, but Midwest yield reports have been good. Protein levels for Great Plains Wheat have been strong as is usual during warm and dry growing seasons. The harvest is expected to move fast due to the generally sharply reduced yield potential due to dry conditions in the western Great Plains. The reports on Friday are expected to show less Wheat planted area in the US due to bad weather at planting time in the northern Great Plains.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see drier weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers today and late this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Egypt bought 120,000 tons of Russian Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 469 and 439 September. Support is at 480, 476, and 474 September, with resistance at 493, 499, and 509 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 452 September. Support is at 472, 469, and 467 September, with resistance at 488, 494, and 503 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 526 September. Support is at 540, 534, and 528 September, and resistance is at 550, 555, and 562 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower in July, but higher in the rest of the months as the market recovery continued and as new crop futures got more into line with actual cash market conditions inside the US. July has collapsed as the fund roll appears over. It is still trading at a Premium to new crop, but has fallen significantly against those months on spreads since late last week. The spread moves have been breathtaking for most of June as July September went from July 8 under September in the first part of the month to 264 over last week before closing at 22 over today. The market overall shows the tight nearby supplies with farmers in the US mostly sold out. The crop has been running a little late this year and there are ideas that there will not be much new crop Rice available to deliver against the September contract. Trade tensions remain a focal point as Mexico is the largest buyer of US Rice. There were reports that Mexico will include a tariff on milled Rice, but not Rough Rice. Mexico mostly buys Rough Rice. US crop conditions are spotty, with some areas in need of rains, but most of the crop appears in good shape. Crops in almost all areas are in flood. Traders anticipate tight supplies at this time, and also anticipate a slight increase in planted area to justo ver 2.7 million acres when the reports are released on Friday.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible today. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1142, 1121, and 1118 September, with resistance at 1157, 1177, and 1193 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed unchanged to slightly higher as the market got ready for the export sales report that was released this morning and also the hogs inventory report that will be released later today. Traders are also getting ready for the quarterly stocks and planted area reports that will be released tomorrow. Traders assume a slight increase in planted area for mostly historical reasons, but this might not happen as the weather at planting time was not real good. Corn still is a market with positive fundamentals and has a chance to move higher. USDA showed good crop conditions again, and also showed good demand. The market will now have to pay more attention to the Midwest weather and see a big crop coming as good conditions continue. Temperatures will now turn hot for a few days and possibly could stay hot for a couple of weeks according to some of the computer models. Prices could move significantly higher if a very big crop is not assured as the demand is consistent. There are still some dry pockets scattered around the Midwest, mostly in southern and western areas. Some northern areas have had way too much rain, with this area mostly concentrated near the Iowa-Minnesota border.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 357, 352, and 348 September, and resistance is at 365, 369, and 371 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 235, 233, and 230 September, and resistance is at 242, 245, and 247 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil closed mostly a little higher as trade fears and ideas of good crop conditions continue to hurt futures. Soybean Meal was a little lower News that the Trump administration might not impose new remedies on the Chinese this Friday helped the market early, but futures did not hold the initial rally as no one knows when the dispute might be settled. Soybeans traders fear a large loss of business that can only be partially made up by other buyers. It is a weaker time of year for demand, but the tariffs have already damaged markets and producers. USDA said it will announce support measure by September if nothing happens on the trade front. These measures could include direct payments to producers as well as purchases of Soybeans by CCC as a price support mechanism. Soybeans were also lower on ideas of very good growing conditions, and USDA showed stable and high ratings on Monday. The weather in the Midwest improved for both Corn and Soybeans as some dry areas got some very beneficial rains yesterday. Crop conditions are going to change in the Midwest this week as all areas turn hot and dry. The heat was not expected to last more than a few days, but current models now suggest that the heat could extend for a couple of weeks. Some areas show problems for the crops due to too much rain. This is true near the Iowa-Minnesota border as well as in pockets south of Chicago. Overall conditions still appear good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 863 August. Support is at 868, 860, and 848 August, and resistance is at 885, 896, and 904 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 330.00, 323.00, and 320.00 August, and resistance is at 337.00, 341.00, and 350.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2870 and 2810 August. Support is at 2900, 2870, and 2840 August, with resistance at 2950, 2970, and 3010 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher in reaction to the Chicago price action and as the market got ready for the Statscan planted area reports. Reports of improved conditions in the Prairies help keep selling interest alive on rallies. Conditions are still somewhat favorable in the Prairies. Some areas of the western Prairies saw some beneficial rains last week, but some areas remain too hot and dry. StatsCan releases updated acreage projections on Friday, and Canola is expected to show increased planted area, Palm Oil was higher on a weaker local currency and some hopes for increased demand. Production ideas are about steady from last month. The exports reported so far by the private surveyors are well below the pace of last month. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 503.00, 500.00, and 498.00 November, with resistance at 514.00, 515.00, and 517.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2340 and 2390 September. Support is at 2290, 2270, and 2240 September, with resistance at 2320, 2340, and 2390 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry and turning much warmer.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 53 July 165 July 62 July 56 July 25-Jul
July 55 September 65 July 56 July
August 52 September 50 September 56 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
July 13-Jul
August 8-Aug 85 September
September 12-Sep 85 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 27
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 505.00 dn 1.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 537.90 up 1.40
2 Can 524.90 up 1.40
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 562.90 up 4.40
2 Can 549.90 up 4.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 602.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 605.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 605.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 610.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jul 605.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 607.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 607.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 612.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 595.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 495.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 2,350 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 230 +12.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.0440)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 158,228 lots, or 5.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 3,561 3,562 3,561 3,562 3,565 3,561 -4 4 344
Sep-18 3,666 3,677 3,647 3,667 3,651 3,663 12 134,982 197,642
Nov-18 – – – 3,715 3,690 3,715 25 0 8
Jan-19 3,779 3,789 3,760 3,775 3,765 3,773 8 22,528 74,344
Mar-19 – – – 3,754 3,754 3,754 0 0 4
May-19 3,832 3,843 3,820 3,837 3,832 3,831 -1 676 4,052
Jul-19 – – – 3,775 3,775 3,775 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,920 3,922 3,905 3,918 3,916 3,918 2 38 200
Nov-19 – – – 3,877 3,877 3,877 0 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 387,432 lots, or 7.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 1,762 1,768 1,750 1,762 1,762 1,759 -3 4,398 32,218
Sep-18 1,785 1,789 1,773 1,781 1,784 1,779 -5 219,914 548,772
Nov-18 1,804 1,805 1,794 1,805 1,799 1,799 0 9,240 42,310
Jan-19 1,840 1,844 1,830 1,839 1,835 1,835 0 131,772 513,574
Mar-19 1,875 1,875 1,864 1,869 1,866 1,867 1 698 3,544
May-19 1,913 1,915 1,900 1,910 1,908 1,906 -2 21,410 86,446
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,939,722 lots, or 92.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 2,982 3,052 2,970 2,984 2,937 2,998 61 5,414 6,606
Aug-18 3,090 3,134 3,071 3,101 3,079 3,099 20 72 554
Sep-18 3,128 3,136 3,091 3,119 3,097 3,117 20 1,755,518 1,872,034
Nov-18 3,165 3,178 3,128 3,158 3,114 3,155 41 118,828 161,928
Dec-18 3,176 3,183 3,137 3,178 3,162 3,171 9 16 362
Jan-19 3,195 3,218 3,158 3,187 3,163 3,190 27 961,288 1,810,332
Mar-19 3,037 3,057 3,012 3,029 3,012 3,034 22 376 5,600
May-19 2,864 2,876 2,846 2,862 2,846 2,863 17 98,210 390,404
Palm Oil
Turnover: 286,510 lots, or 13.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,106 5,106 5,106 0 0 0
Aug-18 4,750 4,922 4,750 4,920 4,852 4,844 -8 50 22
Sep-18 4,802 4,838 4,766 4,816 4,768 4,802 34 210,100 382,480
Oct-18 4,840 4,840 4,840 4,840 4,790 4,840 50 2 10
Nov-18 – – – 4,878 4,828 4,878 50 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 4,920 4,870 4,920 50 0 6
Jan-19 4,912 4,936 4,882 4,922 4,878 4,912 34 73,054 239,836
Feb-19 – – – 4,902 4,870 4,902 32 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 4,980 4,980 4,980 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,048 5,014 5,048 34 0 18
May-19 5,012 5,056 4,998 5,046 4,990 5,024 34 3,304 30,244
Jun-19 – – – 5,024 5,024 5,024 0 0 8
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 379,758 lots, or 21.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 5,302 5,302 5,302 5,302 5,356 5,302 -54 2 114
Aug-18 – – – 5,470 5,524 5,470 -54 0 10
Sep-18 5,574 5,582 5,526 5,554 5,544 5,558 14 241,598 689,874
Nov-18 – – – 5,610 5,568 5,610 42 0 52
Dec-18 – – – 5,714 5,714 5,714 0 0 16
Jan-19 5,758 5,768 5,710 5,736 5,730 5,740 10 130,212 463,166
Mar-19 – – – 5,818 5,818 5,818 0 0 64
May-19 5,814 5,820 5,732 5,780 5,788 5,794 6 7,946 49,450
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322