About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 24-Jun 17-Jun 2017 Avg
Cotton Squaring 32 22 32 28
Cotton Setting Bolls 6 7 5
Corn Silking 5 4 3
Soybeans Emerged 95 90 93 89
Soybeans Blooming 12 8 5
Sorghum Planted 95 89 94 91
Sorghum Headed 20 18 20 21
Peanuts Pegging 27 14 28 23
Sunflowers Planted 91 83 96 88
Rice Headed 7 3 8 8
Oats Headed 67 52 71 68
Winter Wheat Harvested 41 27 39 33
Spring Wheat Headed 34 9 33 27
Barley Headed 28 8 25 32

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Cotton This Week 1 18 39 35 7
Cotton Last Week 5 21 36 33 5
Cotton Last Year 1 9 33 46 11

Corn This Week 1 4 18 58 19
Corn Last Week 1 3 18 59 19
Corn Last Year 2 6 25 55 12

Soybeans This Week 1 4 22 58 15
Soybeans Last Week 1 4 22 58 15
Soybeans Last Year 2 6 26 56 10

Winter Wheat This Week 15 19 29 28 9
Winter Wheat Last Week 15 18 28 30 9
Winter Wheat Last Year 4 12 35 40 9

Spring Wheat This Week 2 3 18 63 14
Spring Wheat Last Week 1 2 19 64 14
Spring Wheat Last Year 10 18 32 33 7

Sorghum This Week 3 9 32 51 5
Sorghum Last Week 3 10 33 51 3
Sorghum Last Year 1 3 31 57 8

Rice This Week 0 5 25 57 13
Rice Last Week 0 3 23 60 14
Rice Last Year 1 4 22 50 23

Peanuts This Week 1 3 31 58 7
Peanuts Last Week 1 4 31 57 7
Peanuts Last Year 0 3 22 62 13

Oats This Week 3 3 22 59 13
Oats Last Week 4 3 23 58 12
Oats Last Year 6 12 28 45 9

Barley This Week 1 3 13 65 18
Barley Last Week 1 2 13 72 12
Barley Last Year 4 8 28 42 18

Pastures and Ranges This Week 6 14 31 41 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 6 14 32 40 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 4 9 27 49 11

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jun 25
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUN 21, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 06/21/2018 06/14/2018 06/22/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 98 542 98 2,926
CORN 1,511,746 1,680,329 969,602 44,193,302 47,585,928
FLAXSEED 0 24 24 24 685
MIXED 0 0 0 24 0
OATS 0 0 0 599 299
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 336 31,125 75,760 4,660,988 5,008,757
SOYBEANS 514,214 818,396 328,634 48,821,567 52,257,602
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 383
WHEAT 352,836 374,340 659,851 1,146,765 2,288,453
Total 2,379,132 2,904,312 2,034,413 98,823,367 107,145,033
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower on fund selling tied to price weakness in Black Sea ports and some forecasts for improved rains on the fringes of the production areas of eastern Europe and Russia. Funds and other speculators were sellers as agricultural markets in general saw new selling interest. The market remains mostly concerned about East Europe and Russia. These areas remain mostly hot and dry, but there have been some showers recently in parts of Ukraine. Australia is another producing country where some rains are badly needed, but only some showers have been reported. On the other hand, Canada and the northern Great Plains have been getting better rains. The US Winter Wheat harvest is moving north in the Great Plains and Midwest and the overall harvest is now more than 40% complete. Yield reports in the Great Plains have been highly variable. Protein levels have been strong as usual during warm and dry growing seasons. The harvest is expected to move fast due to the generally sharply reduced yield potential due to dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Reports indicate that the harvest of the Soft Red Winter crop is active in the Midwest, and yields should are good.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see showers off and on. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers today and late this week. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Egypt bought 120,000 tons of Russian Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 469 and 439 September. Support is at 587, 480, and 476 September, with resistance at 499, 509, and 521 September. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 477 and 452 September. Support is at 486, 478, and 469 September, with resistance at 494, 503, and 512 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 543 and 526 September. Support is at 551, 548, and 545 September, and resistance is at 562, 569, and 573 September.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was mostly higher as it appears that the fund roll of short positions has started to abate July was lower, but the spread between July and September has been extreme. Traders are debating if the September=November spread can show a move similar to the July September. The market overall shows the tight nearby supplies with farmers in the US mostly sold out. The crop has been running a little late this year and there are ideas that there will not be much new crop Rice available to deliver against the September contract. Trade tensions remain a focal point as Mexico is the largest buyer of US Rice. There were reports that Mexico will include a tariff on milled Rice, but not Rough Rice. Mexico mostly buys Rough Rice. US crop conditions are spotty, with some areas in need of rains, but most of the crop appears in good shape. Crops in almost all areas are in flood.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible today and tomorrow. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1092 and 1135 September. Support is at 1065, 1050, and 1040 September, with resistance at 1095, 1112, and 1121 September.

DJ Thai Rice Prices Weaker Amid a Rising Dollar — Market Talk
0235 GMT – Thai rice-export prices have been weakening of late along with the baht as the greenback’s gains make the dollar-denominated commodity cheaper. Also holding down the market has been government sales of rice supplies, notes the USDA. But the drawdown could help longer-term as the significant accumulation of rice has weighed on the market for some time. Thai rice exports have risen 5.5% so far this year, the USDA ads. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower, but held better than Soybeans and Wheat. Corn still is a market with positive fundamentals and has a chance to move higher. However, traders are not ready to buy after the bloodbath of last week. USDA showed good crop conditions again last night, and also showed good demand as the export inspections for Corn remain very strong. The market will now have to pay more attention to the Midwest weather and see a big crop coming as good conditions continue. Rain is in the forecast for today, then temperatures will turn hot for a few days. Prices could move significantly higher if a very big crop is not assured as the demand is consistent. There are still some dry pockets scattered around the Midwest, mostly in southern and western areas. Some northern areas have had way too much rain, with this area mostly concentrated near the Iowa-Minnesota border.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 357, 352, and 348 September, and resistance is at 364, 369, and 371 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 230 and 215 September. Support is at 233, 230, and 227 September, and resistance is at 240, 242, and 245 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower in reaction to news reports that the Trump administration is preparing to expand the tariffs on China and other countries. Soybeans traders fear a large loss of Business that can only be partially made up by other buyers. It is a weaker time of year for demand, but the tariffs with no real support for producers coming from the White House at this time have already damaged markets and producers. Soybeans were also lower on ideas of very good growing conditions, and USDA showed stable and high ratings after the close. The weather in the Midwest improved for both Corn and Soybeans as some dry areas got some very beneficial rains yesterday. Crop conditions are going to change in the Midwest this week as all areas turn hot and dry. The heat is not expected to last. Some areas show problems for the crops due to too much rain. This is true near the Iowa-Minnesota border as well as in pockets south of Chicago. Overall conditions still appear good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 877, 860, and 848 August, and resistance is at 904, 920, and 936 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 332.00, 330.00, and 323.00 August, and resistance is at 341.00, 350.00, and 353.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2870 and 2810 August. Support is at 2900, 2870, and 2840 August, with resistance at 2950, 2970, and 3010 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower in reaction to the Chicago price action and on reports of improved conditions in the Prairies. The Canadian Dollar was a little lower, and conditions are still somewhat favorable in the Prairies. Some areas of the western Prairies saw some beneficial rains last week, but some areas remain too dry. StatsCan releases updated acreage projections on Friday, and Canola is expected to show increased planted area, Palm Oil was a little lower as trade tensions around the world continue.. The exports reported so far by the private surveyors are well below the pace of last month. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas.
Overnight News: SGS said that exports so far this month are now 862,215 tons, from 1.003 million last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 509.00, 503.00, and 500.00 November, with resistance at 514.00, 515.00, and 517.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2240, 2210, and 2180 September, with resistance at 2300, 2320, and 2340 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry, but light precipitation is possible every few days, mostly in the north. Temperatures above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 57 July 168 July 62 July 56 July 24-Jul
July 59 September 65 July 55 July
August 53 September 50 September 55 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
July 14-Jul
August 175 August 10-Aug 88 September
September 185 September 10-Sep 87 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 25
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 510.40 dn 3.41
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 538.30 dn 4.10
2 Can 525.30 dn 4.10
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 560.30 dn 4.10
2 Can 547.30 dn 4.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 592.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 595.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 595.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 602.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jul 595.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug 597.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 597.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 605.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 587.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 485.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 2,300 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jul 207 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.0210)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 204,248 lots, or 7.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 3,541 3,570 3,541 3,570 3,564 3,556 -8 10 324
Sep-18 3,638 3,665 3,604 3,636 3,624 3,637 13 174,322 200,606
Nov-18 – – – 3,697 3,697 3,697 0 0 6
Jan-19 3,750 3,777 3,716 3,751 3,735 3,749 14 29,478 73,196
Mar-19 3,715 3,768 3,711 3,711 3,728 3,731 3 6 4
May-19 3,813 3,841 3,791 3,817 3,803 3,822 19 414 3,480
Jul-19 – – – 3,775 3,775 3,775 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,877 3,904 3,877 3,890 3,875 3,894 19 18 200
Nov-19 – – – 3,877 3,877 3,877 0 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 376,504 lots, or 6.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 1,763 1,769 1,762 1,765 1,763 1,763 0 8,034 43,286
Sep-18 1,776 1,784 1,774 1,780 1,772 1,779 7 214,128 570,448
Nov-18 1,789 1,798 1,788 1,792 1,787 1,791 4 9,648 39,936
Jan-19 1,820 1,830 1,815 1,826 1,817 1,823 6 127,442 501,870
Mar-19 1,850 1,860 1,845 1,855 1,849 1,854 5 322 3,382
May-19 1,888 1,901 1,884 1,897 1,887 1,895 8 16,930 77,438
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,808,562 lots, or 85.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 2,884 2,999 2,884 2,940 2,896 2,914 18 2,282 8,886
Aug-18 2,971 3,047 2,970 3,037 2,977 3,020 43 102 564
Sep-18 3,002 3,082 2,986 3,058 2,993 3,038 45 1,789,930 1,784,326
Nov-18 3,044 3,114 3,030 3,093 3,039 3,068 29 119,214 163,098
Dec-18 3,064 3,108 3,064 3,108 3,058 3,099 41 10 364
Jan-19 3,089 3,154 3,066 3,130 3,077 3,114 37 801,476 1,721,662
Mar-19 2,949 3,013 2,940 2,990 2,953 2,972 19 694 5,624
May-19 2,812 2,851 2,796 2,834 2,808 2,824 16 94,854 378,520
Palm Oil
Turnover: 336,298 lots, or 16.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,106 5,106 5,106 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 4,976 4,976 4,976 0 0 12
Sep-18 4,740 4,770 4,680 4,758 4,732 4,732 0 254,062 399,216
Oct-18 4,740 4,740 4,740 4,740 4,840 4,740 -100 2 8
Nov-18 – – – 4,792 4,792 4,792 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 4,834 4,934 4,834 -100 0 6
Jan-19 4,860 4,878 4,788 4,858 4,846 4,838 -8 80,852 218,934
Feb-19 – – – 4,870 4,870 4,870 0 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 4,980 4,980 4,980 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 4,974 4,974 4,974 0 0 18
May-19 4,978 4,984 4,900 4,970 4,954 4,952 -2 1,382 26,822
Jun-19 – – – 4,986 4,986 4,986 0 0 8
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 530,896 lots, or 29.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,326 5,326 5,326 0 0 140
Aug-18 – – – 5,494 5,494 5,494 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,514 5,520 5,414 5,502 5,508 5,478 -30 377,166 733,168
Nov-18 5,584 5,584 5,552 5,552 5,632 5,568 -64 4 52
Dec-18 – – – 5,714 5,714 5,714 0 0 16
Jan-19 5,700 5,708 5,602 5,688 5,696 5,664 -32 145,196 431,386
Mar-19 – – – 5,818 5,818 5,818 0 0 64
May-19 5,780 5,782 5,686 5,758 5,776 5,746 -30 8,530 42,788
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322