About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jun 14
For the week ended Jun 7, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 302.3 0.0 4526.6 6982.2 4216.6 0.0
hrw 134.0 0.0 1015.4 2463.7 948.3 0.0
srw 9.5 0.0 602.6 684.6 524.2 0.0
hrs 71.1 0.0 1489.8 1942.9 1376.7 0.0
white 87.7 0.0 1316.4 1686.9 1264.9 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 102.5 204.1 102.5 0.0
corn 936.4 240.2 56236.8 54617.2 15828.2 3311.3
soybeans 519.6 291.0 56149.7 58937.5 8948.1 6653.6
soymeal 74.6 23.3 11113.7 9833.3 2727.3 310.2
soyoil -0.2 8.0 887.8 957.1 171.0 10.3
upland cotto 34.8 226.7 16299.8 13936.9 3869.0 4821.6
pima cotton 7.7 32.4 634.1 616.1 112.6 98.7
sorghum 0.0 0.0 5105.2 4367.5 266.2 38.0
barley 0.0 0.0 48.6 28.5 47.0 0.0
rice 31.0 0.0 2868.2 3449.5 347.8 31.3

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower on fund selling. Funds and other speculators were sellers as agricultural markets in general saw new selling interest. The market remains mostly concerned about East Europe and Russia. These areas remain mostly hot and dry. Australia is another producing country where some rains are badly needed. On the other hand, Canada and the northern Great Plains have been getting better rains. The US Winter Wheat harvest is moving north in the Great Plains. Yield reports have been highly variable, but the talk is that the crop yields are a little higher than current trade projections. Yields have ranged anywhere from in the teens to about 50 bushels per acre. Protein levels have been strong as usual during warm and dry growing seasons. The harvest is expected to move fast due to the generally sharply reduced yield potential due to dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Reports indicate that some initial harvest of the Soft Red Winter crop is underway in the Midwest, and yields should be good. The upside was limited by fears of a trade war with Canada and Mexico along with some general selling seen in the Chicago markets.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see showers off and on. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers off and on. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 510, 503, and 499 July, with resistance at 528, 537, and 539 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 571 and 596 July. Support is at 531, 523, and 519 July, with resistance at 546, 555, and 558 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 578 and 559 July. Support is at 581, 574, and 568 July, and resistance is at 592, 597, and 605 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was mostly lower again yesterday in most months, but July rallied again in a squeeze atmosphere and the July – September spread now shows that July is at a significant Premium to September. It shows the tight nearby supplies with farmers in the US mostly sold out. Trade tensions remain a focal point as Mexico is the largest buyer of US Rice. Mexico announced some of the markets it would use to retaliate against the US tariffs, and grains were not on the list. There were reports that Mexico will include a tariff on milled Rice, but not Rough Rice. Mexico mostly buys Rough Rice. US crop conditions are spotty, with some areas in need of rains. This is true mostly in Eastern Texas to southern and central Louisiana. Crops in almost all areas are in flood.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible this weekend. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1215 and 1310 July. Support is at 1184, 1170, and 1158 July, with resistance at 1218, 1236, and 1243 July.

July-September Rice Spread-Closed at 169 July over September Yesterday

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed slightly lower, but held well given the big moves in Soybeans and Wheat. Corn still is a market with positive fundamentals and has a chance to move higher. However, any selling due to the Trump tariff announcements against China on Friday will need to happen first. USDA showed more export demand for this year in its monthly supply and demand estimates and increased demand for ethanol uses in the next crop year. Ending stocks estimates were cut by 80 million bushels for the current crop year and by over 100 million for the next crop year. The market will now have to pay more attention to the Midwest weather and see a big crop coming. Prices could move significantly higher if a very big crop is not assured as the demand is there. USDA condition ratings were high again this week, and the weekend saw many dry areas get some very beneficial precipitation. However, there are still some dry pockets scattered around the Midwest, mostly in southern and western areas. Some northern areas have had way too much rain, with this area mostly concentrated near the Iowa-Minnesota border. The weather forecast calls for a change in the pattern to one less favorable for crops. It is expected to turn hot and dry in most of the Midwest this weekend, and stay that way in the western half of the belt through at least the middle of next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 373, 372, and 366 July, and resistance is at 380, 381, and 385 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 220 and 203 July. Support is at 231, 225, and 221 July, and resistance is at 238, 241, and 244 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed lower in reaction to news reports that the Trump administration was prepared to announce tariffs against China on Friday. Details on what products will be taxed are still being worked out. Soybeans traders fear a large loss of Business that can only be partially made up by other buyers. It is a weaker time of year for demand, but the tariffs with no real support for producers coming from the White House at this time could really damage markets and producers.. Soybean Oil was slightly higher. The weather in the Midwest improved for both Corn and Soybeans as some dry areas got some very beneficial rains. Crop ratings stayed higher in the USDA reports Monday night. Crop conditions are going to change in the Midwest this weekend as all areas turn hot and dry. Hot and dry weather should continue in the western half of the Soybeans belt through at least the middle of next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 928, 916, and 904 July, and resistance is at 953, 965, and 972 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 346.00, 340.00, and 334.00 July, and resistance is at 352.00, 361.00, and 364.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3000 and 2860 July. Support is at 2990, 2960, and 2930 July, with resistance at 3040, 3070, and 3100 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower in reaction to the Chicago price action. The Canadian Dollar was a little lower, and conditions are still somewhat favorable in the Prairies. Some areas of the western Prairies saw some beneficial rains last week. It is dry in parts of the Prairies, and there is concern that Canola could be affected if some rains do not return soon. Most think overall conditions are good. Funds have been the best sellers and have been liquidating long positions. Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. The MPOB data was negative to prices, and the exports reported so far by the private surveyors are well below the pace of last month. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Exports so far this month ar down from last month. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 514.00, 510.00, and 508.00 July, with resistance at 517.00, 519.00, and 520.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2300, 2270, and 2240 September, with resistance at 2340, 2370, and 2390 September.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry, but light precipitation is possible every few days, mostly in the north. Temperatures above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 53 July 155 July 60 July 52 July 24-Jul
July 55 September 62 July 53 July
August 50 September 48 September 57 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
July 90 July 5-Jul
August 110 August 4-Aug 85 September
September 4-Sep 85 September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 13
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 509.00 up 0.30
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 529.50 dn 2.50
2 Can 516.50 dn 2.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 554.50 dn 2.50
2 Can 541.50 dn 2.50
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 125,010 lots, or 4.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 3,499 3,499 3,499 0 0 286
Sep-18 3,585 3,598 3,573 3,587 3,578 3,587 9 111,344 217,782
Nov-18 3,627 3,675 3,627 3,675 3,638 3,648 10 6 6
Jan-19 3,684 3,713 3,681 3,698 3,685 3,700 15 13,036 39,958
Mar-19 – – – 3,763 3,763 3,763 0 0 2
May-19 3,765 3,796 3,765 3,771 3,776 3,778 2 546 2,608
Jul-19 – – – 3,761 3,761 3,761 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,863 3,870 3,849 3,852 3,835 3,859 24 78 218
Nov-19 – – – 3,822 3,822 3,822 0 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 394,188 lots, or 7.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 1,769 1,771 1,766 1,769 1,769 1,768 -1 23,264 83,852
Sep-18 1,756 1,764 1,753 1,763 1,757 1,757 0 167,502 615,310
Nov-18 1,788 1,790 1,779 1,785 1,790 1,784 -6 38,218 33,186
Jan-19 1,810 1,823 1,808 1,817 1,810 1,817 7 146,560 446,036
Mar-19 1,843 1,856 1,843 1,851 1,845 1,848 3 188 3,418
May-19 1,879 1,897 1,878 1,886 1,878 1,889 11 18,456 59,614
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,726,394 lots, or 51.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 2,818 2,839 2,808 2,826 2,811 2,823 12 17,286 38,476
Aug-18 – – – 2,915 2,908 2,915 7 0 628
Sep-18 2,946 2,961 2,928 2,947 2,926 2,944 18 997,870 2,097,802
Nov-18 2,988 3,007 2,977 2,993 2,973 2,992 19 88,672 134,272
Dec-18 3,028 3,044 3,019 3,027 3,012 3,031 19 16 400
Jan-19 3,035 3,072 3,025 3,061 3,023 3,049 26 566,084 1,639,272
Mar-19 2,941 2,961 2,931 2,949 2,939 2,943 4 1,636 7,868
May-19 2,815 2,843 2,810 2,827 2,809 2,827 18 54,830 320,786
Palm Oil
Turnover: 272,356 lots, or 13.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-18 – – – 5,206 5,206 5,206 0 0 0
Jul-18 – – – 5,106 5,106 5,106 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,236 5,236 5,236 0 0 12
Sep-18 4,858 4,876 4,844 4,864 4,856 4,860 4 202,270 511,040
Oct-18 – – – 4,926 4,926 4,926 0 0 10
Nov-18 – – – 5,124 5,124 5,124 0 0 12
Dec-18 4,938 5,034 4,908 5,034 5,028 4,968 -60 10 6
Jan-19 4,974 4,988 4,960 4,980 4,974 4,972 -2 56,886 192,698
Feb-19 – – – 5,004 5,004 5,004 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 5,030 5,030 5,030 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,156 5,156 5,156 0 0 18
May-19 5,102 5,112 5,070 5,088 5,104 5,084 -20 13,190 21,114
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 473,836 lots, or 27.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,530 5,530 5,530 0 0 152
Aug-18 – – – 5,646 5,646 5,646 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,648 5,680 5,630 5,656 5,640 5,654 14 325,834 831,948
Nov-18 – – – 5,830 5,852 5,830 -22 0 34
Dec-18 5,780 5,892 5,780 5,842 5,832 5,846 14 12 16
Jan-19 5,850 5,868 5,810 5,846 5,812 5,838 26 136,660 377,748
Mar-19 – – – 5,990 5,990 5,990 0 0 64
May-19 5,916 5,974 5,902 5,934 5,904 5,940 36 11,330 29,218
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322