Marc Nemenoff gives his readers an insight into the decision making process of a professional trader and analyst with 35+ years of market experience. He covers the markets with which he has had the best success throughout his career with. Contact Mr. Nemenoff at (312) 264-4310
Financials: Sept. Bonds are currently 2 lower at 142’11, 10 YR. Notes 2 lower at 119’07.0 and the 5 Yr. Note 0.75 lower at 113’05.2. Last week we took profits on Eurodollar spreads and the long 2 Bonds short 5 10 Yr. Notes yield curve spread. The spread has once again slightly narrowed from last weeks’ 18 basis points premium the 30 Yr. Bond to the current difference of 15 basis points. Having no positions at this time has giving me the opportunity to have a fresh perspective and I now feel that the 10 Yr. yield will once again trade above the 3.0% yield (currently 2.965%). Granted this is not a huge move, but the opportunity to make some money exists. I recommend buying the Sept. 10 Yr. Note 117’00 put for 12 pts. or better (currently 14).
Grains: July Corn is currently 2’6 higher at 381’0, Beans 0’6 higher at 995’0 and Wheat 14’0 higher at 534’0. I am currently on the sidelines, but will consider going long July Beans under 981’4 or August Beans below 985’0. Crop Production Report next Tuesday.
Cattle: Live and Feeder Cattle have sharply in the last week. June LC gained on deferred contracts as the disparity between the futures and cash tightened in response to good beef demand. Last week I recommended the short side of the market should we rally above the 108.00 level. Yesterday the June LC traded as high as 109.25, I will be a seller for the near term.
Silver: July Silver is currently 14 cents higher at 16.83. A weak dollar has provided the impetus to rally Silver to the upper end of recent sideway’s range of 16.30 to 16.90. I remain long. A close above 16.93 could be an upside breakout.
S&P’s: June S&P’s are currently 3.50 higher at 2775.75 and up 50.00 since last week. If you are holding out of the money put spreads cover the short leg.
Currencies: As of this writing the June Euro is currently 64.5 higher at 1.18425, the Yen 10 higher at 0.91495, the Pound 11 higher 1.3428 and the Dollar Index 34 lower at 93.287. We are long the Euro from below 1.1725, long the Pound from below 1.3400 and short the Dollar Index from above the 93.200 levels. Either take profits or roll into Sept. contracts and use 100 point protective stops from current levels.