About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were higher in consolidation trading and bad weather in many parts of the world, but mostly East Europe and Russia. Some selling was based on more world trade fears and on some reports of a few showers in the southern Great Plains. The harvest is underway, so any rains now will not mean much to the crop production potential. Yield reports have been highly variable. The upside was limited by fears of a trade war with Canada and Mexico along with some general selling seen in the Chicago markets. One report indicated yields anywhere from in the teens to about 50 bushels per acre. There is no real estimate of abandoned acres available. The harvest is expected to move fast due to the generally sharply reduced yield potential due to dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Wheat crops here and in other places around the world are still in trouble. The weather focus is now mostly on the Black Sea area, or Ukraine and southern Russia and then into Kazakhstan. These areas are too dry and there is talk of yield loss. Western Russian Spring Wheat areas have been too wet and cold. Canada and Australia have been dry. The previous high on the weekly charts was made in July of last year at 553.5 basis Chicago futures. July futures made a high of 554 before turning lower and moving to a test of chart support at about 518 on the weekly charts
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible late in the week. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers off and on all week. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 479 July. Support is at 503, 499, and 496 July, with resistance at 515, 5245, and 528 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 519, 515, and 509 July, with resistance at 536, 549, and 554 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 591, 581, and 574 July, and resistance is at 600, 605, and 608 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was sharply lower yesterday as trade tensions remained high. Mexico is the main concern for Rice traders as Mexico buys a lot of US Rice.. Mexico announced some of the markets it would use to retaliate against the US tariffs, and grains were not on the list. It is our biggest Customer, but there are worries about China, too. China has not bought any significant amounts of US Rice in the past, but the industry has been really pushing them to buy. Potential Iranian and Iraqi demand was hurt when Trump did not certify Iran a couple of weeks ago and moved to get a new nuclear deal with them. Cash market traders say that the domestic cash market remains about unchanged. USDA showed that the crop is in good condition last week, and good conditions should be seen again in the weekly reports that will be released this afternoon. Progress is at or above average for the date The crop is almost completely planted. Emergence is happening quickly with warmer temperatures, and crops in the south are in flood or going into flood. There are a few concerns about yield loss due to late planting in many areas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible this weekend. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1025 July. Support is at 1088, 1076, and 1064 July, with resistance at 1126, 1149, and 1170 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher in consolidation trading. Ideas that Corn crops are in good condition in the Midwest and trade fears created by the US government keep some selling interest alive, but futures are at support areas now and near areas where many want to buy. The US announced new tariffs on metals imports from Mexico, Canada, and the EU on Thursday and the targets began to announce their own retaliation on Friday. It was bad news for the Corn market as Mexico especially imports a lot of US Corn Mexico targeted meats and other farm products, but not grains, and Canada announced new tariffs on mostly processed foods and drinks. The EU is expected to target grains and FCOJ. China could become the focus of new tariffs, but it does not import much Corn, and hardly any from the US. It does, however, buy a lot of US Sorghum. Corn planting progress and emergence was strong in the USDA reports last week, and the overall condition is very high. The weekly progress and condition reports show that Corn is planted and the condition is very good and about the same as last week. Domestic demand remains strong, and demand for ethanol is expected to remain strong Export demand is also be holding strong. The weather problems with the Winter Corn crop in Brazil continue with no real rains in sight for major growing areas. There are chances for the crop to get smaller if rains do not appear. There are no rains in the forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 380, 378, and 377 July, and resistance is at 385, 389, and 391 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 220 and 203 July. Support is at 241, 238, and 236 July, and resistance is at 246, 251, and 254 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were mostly a little lower due to ideas of good weather and on continuing fears about new Chinese demand. The Chinese said that little or no progress was made over the weekend in the latest round of trade talks. Prices have been pressured for the last week after the Trump administration said it was moving ahead with tariffs even though the negotiations between the two countries were going very well. There were ideas that tariffs could be applied as a tactic to pressure China, but the move has made the negotiations more difficult. The US went ahead with tariffs on metals imports from the EU, Canada, and Mexico last week. There will be retaliation, and it is possible that grains and oilseeds will see new or increased tariffs. USDA showed very good planting progress, and farmers should move quickly now to complete planting as Corn is now mostly in the ground. Emergence and crop conditions are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 995, 992, and 981 July. Support is at 997, 993, and 989 July, and resistance is at 1008, 1012, and 1014 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 364.00, 362.00, and 353.00 July. Support is at 367.00, 364.00, and 361.00 July, and resistance is at 374.00, 378.00, and 380.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3000 and 2860 July. Support is at 3060, 3030, and 3020 July, with resistance at 3100, 3160, and 3180 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was unchanged to lower on US ag markets and reports of better rains in the Prairies. Some areas of the western Prairies saw some beneficial rains last week and more are in the forecast for this week. It is dry in parts of the Prairies, and there is concern that Canola could be affected if some rains do not return soon. Palm Oil was a little lower on ideas of big production and lackluster demand. The market thinks there are still large supplies in the country from the previous crop and expects a very big crop to be grown this year. Exports for the month are sharply below last month due primarily to Ramadan. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Exports so far this month ar down from last month. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. Palm Oil prices have held well and traded a Little higher last week despite weaker demand this month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 517.00 July.. Support is at 523.00, 522.00, and 519.00 July, with resistance at 528.00, 533.00, and 536.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2380, 2350, and 2330 August, with resistance at 2430, 2450, and 2480 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry, but light precipitation is possible every few days, mostly in the north and east. Temperatures mostly near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 56 July 160 July 60 July 50 July 19-Jul
July 56 September 62 July 50 July
August 50 September 48 September 55 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
June 95 July
July 105 July 5-Jul 90 September August
August 115 August 4-Aug 87 September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 5
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 517.30 dn 5.00
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 537.30 unchanged
2 Can 524.30 unchanged
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 565.30 unchanged
2 Can 552.30 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 630.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul 632.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 632.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 632.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jun 632.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul 635.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 635.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 635.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 620.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2,410 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 210 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 3.9740)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 06

Soybean No. 1

Turnover: 191,098 lots, or 7.08 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 3,629 3,629 3,629 0 0 286
Sep-18 3,735 3,735 3,672 3,677 3,726 3,697 -29 180,572 229,950
Nov-18 – – – 3,737 3,737 3,737 0 0 10
Jan-19 3,823 3,826 3,774 3,774 3,823 3,793 -30 10,292 24,588
Mar-19 – – – 3,800 3,830 3,800 -30 0 2
May-19 3,883 3,883 3,851 3,855 3,883 3,863 -20 184 2,576
Jul-19 3,835 3,843 3,812 3,843 3,800 3,830 30 6 8
Sep-19 3,899 3,911 3,883 3,890 3,913 3,890 -23 44 218
Nov-19 – – – 3,865 3,887 3,865 -22 0 14

Corn

Turnover: 324,372 lots, or 5.81 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 1,766 1,770 1,765 1,769 1,766 1,767 1 8,342 120,332
Sep-18 1,764 1,766 1,760 1,763 1,761 1,763 2 122,826 721,002
Nov-18 1,796 1,797 1,793 1,795 1,793 1,794 1 131,352 26,484
Jan-19 1,825 1,829 1,822 1,822 1,822 1,825 3 51,070 410,330
Mar-19 1,864 1,867 1,861 1,863 1,860 1,864 4 96 3,706
May-19 1,897 1,903 1,893 1,894 1,900 1,896 -4 10,686 54,468

Soymeal

Turnover: 1,233,364 lots, or 37.22 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 2,948 2,951 2,914 2,915 2,968 2,927 -41 148,212 56,970
Aug-18 3,000 3,000 2,979 2,999 3,006 2,992 -14 6 654
Sep-18 3,011 3,020 2,998 3,013 3,014 3,009 -5 663,426 2,334,326
Nov-18 3,052 3,057 3,036 3,050 3,053 3,046 -7 130,960 78,360
Dec-18 – – – 3,079 3,079 3,079 0 0 440
Jan-19 3,090 3,100 3,076 3,091 3,096 3,087 -9 267,202 1,794,512
Mar-19 2,991 2,997 2,980 2,993 2,998 2,988 -10 132 5,552
May-19 2,874 2,884 2,860 2,880 2,876 2,873 -3 23,426 238,974

Palm Oil

Turnover: 219,974 lots, or 11.11 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-18 – – – 5,206 5,206 5,206 0 0 0
Jul-18 – – – 5,106 5,106 5,106 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,236 5,236 5,236 0 0 12
Sep-18 5,034 5,054 5,020 5,034 5,038 5,034 -4 182,904 493,000
Oct-18 – – – 5,054 5,054 5,054 0 0 24
Nov-18 – – – 5,310 5,314 5,310 -4 0 12
Dec-18 – – – 5,186 5,186 5,186 0 0 6
Jan-19 5,144 5,146 5,114 5,122 5,136 5,126 -10 36,506 181,840
Feb-19 – – – 5,156 5,156 5,156 0 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 5,156 5,156 5,156 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,306 5,316 5,306 -10 0 18
May-19 5,270 5,274 5,234 5,244 5,282 5,248 -34 564 4,464

Soybean Oil

Turnover: 375,708 lots, or 22.02 billion yuan

Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,640 5,640 5,640 0 0 126
Aug-18 – – – 5,864 5,864 5,864 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,836 5,848 5,798 5,814 5,830 5,822 -8 283,298 908,788
Nov-18 – – – 5,968 5,976 5,968 -8 0 32
Dec-18 5,960 5,960 5,960 5,960 6,016 5,960 -56 4 16
Jan-19 5,998 6,006 5,952 5,970 5,988 5,976 -12 88,142 372,496
Mar-19 6,076 6,076 6,076 6,076 6,112 6,076 -36 2 62
May-19 6,074 6,084 6,034 6,046 6,074 6,050 -24 4,262 18,902

Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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DJ U.S. April Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Jun 6

In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.

——- In Kilograms ——-
Apr 18 Mar 18 Feb 18 Apr 17(*)
soybeans 2,167,385,571 3,238,575,867 4,212,824,966 3,120,632,263
soy oil 96,322,199 91,412,839 82,143,237 133,683,345
crude 74,547,873 62,563,038 68,827,952 107,656,266
refined 133,339 255,788 142,344 337,664
other/1 21,357,712 28,340,078 12,955,662 25,412,487
hydrogenated 283,275 253,935 217,279 276,928
cottonseed oil 3,083,000 4,895,555 4,225,212 4,207,236
crude 51,938 1,400,307 459,752 135,989
refined 1,426,262 2,405,610 2,055,188 2,288,796
other/1 1,604,800 1,077,866 1,710,272 1,706,289
hydrogenated 0 11,772 0 76,162
sun seeds 202,581 111,232 114,823 149,854
sunseed oil 3,427,791 4,124,636 4,239,208 3,813,648
rapeseed 11,986,959 21,008,383 14,847,275 13,257,233
rapeseed oil 11,131,787 5,860,477 9,413,099 11,218,969
crude 6,945,909 1,371,148 4,174,571 4,907,830
refined 4,185,878 4,489,329 5,238,528 6,311,139
linseed meal 199,807 212,165 259,721 510,881
cottonseed meal 10,272,793 10,426,662 8,607,330 7,559,629
soymeal 939,851,833 1,087,910,534 928,305,283 1,035,967,822
soymeal/flour 252,977,286 186,996,953 188,459,131 282,809,993
soymeal hulls 12,332,000 8,776,000 11,426,000 3,495,000
lard 1,683,218 1,189,309 1,580,264 1,605,801
edible tallow 12,215,621 10,116,269 10,994,187 8,706,201
inedible tallow 31,923,007 27,895,674 26,556,543 32,555,292
ch white grease 8,033 0 45,885 74,925

——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Apr 18 Mar 18 Feb 18 Apr 17(*)
soybeans 79,636,970 118,996,072 154,793,231 114,662,430
soyoil 212,354,135 201,530,847 181,094,870 294,721,377
crude 164,349,955 137,927,913 151,739,686 237,341,480
refined 293,962 563,916 313,815 744,422
other/1 47,085,703 62,479,188 28,562,350 56,024,953
hydrogenated 624,515 559,831 479,018 610,522
cottonseed oil 6,796,853 10,792,853 9,315,000 9,275,369
crude 114,504 3,087,149 1,013,580 299,804
refined 3,144,370 5,303,463 4,530,915 5,045,932
other/1 3,537,979 2,376,288 3,770,505 3,761,724
hydrogenated 0 25,953 0 167,908
sunseeds 446,615 245,225 253,141 330,372
sunseed oil 7,556,987 9,093,267 9,345,855 8,407,656
rapeseed 26,426,726 46,315,564 32,732,644 29,227,201
rapeseed oil 24,541,394 12,920,142 20,752,335 24,733,597
crude 15,313,111 3,022,864 9,203,355 10,819,915
refined 9,228,283 9,897,278 11,548,979 13,913,682
linseed meal 220 234 286 563
cottonseed meal 11,324 11,493 9,488 8,333
soymeal 1,035,999 1,199,204 1,023,271 1,141,947
soymeal flour/me 278,857 206,127 207,739 311,741
soymeal hulls 13,594 9,674 12,595 3,853
lard 3,710,861 2,621,978 3,483,886 3,540,186
edible tallow 26,930,839 22,302,559 24,238,038 19,193,891
inedible tallow 70,378,195 61,499,445 58,547,165 71,772,146
ch white grease 17,710 0 101,159 165,181

DJ U.S. April Grain Exports-Jun 6

In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data incl
——- In Kilograms ——-
Apr 18 Mar 18 Feb 18 Apr 17(*)
Barley 1,519,432 2,701,120 2,785,905 3,914,218
Corn /1 7,712,105,000 6,489,559,000 3,768,720,000 6,775,515,000
Sorghum 787,437,000 985,584,000 718,448,000 560,500,000
Oats 2,537,527 3,725,629 3,321,475 6,402,155
Rye 72,000 38,400 30,000 85,505
Wheat /1 1,942,027,188 2,153,377,139 1,408,102,566 2,476,971,709
wheat flour /1 21,109,039 22,615,847 21,229,523 25,360,387
Malt 37,454,319 36,219,478 35,122,592 42,182,292

——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Apr 18 Mar 18 Feb 18 Apr 17(*)
Barley 69,786 124,060 127,954 179,777
Corn /1 303,609,047 255,480,031 148,366,430 266,737,506
Sorghum 30,999,707 38,800,330 28,283,758 22,065,684
Oats 174,820 256,673 228,829 441,068
Rye 2,834 1,512 1,181 3,366
Wheat /1 71,356,552 79,122,253 51,738,381 91,012,196
wheat flour /1 465,375 498,594 468,031 559,101
Malt 82,572,653 79,850,294 77,432,074 92,996,051
1/Includes commercial and donated.
dues Exports and Re-Exports.

DJ U.S. Apr Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Jun 6

In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.

—-Apr 2018—- —-Mar 2018—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 31,384,835 69,203,561 48,581,052 107,121,220
palm kernel oil 31,252,646 68,912,084 32,331,319 71,290,558
palm oil 119,300,474 263,057,545 148,482,039 327,402,896
soybean 56,286,158 124,110,978 42,391,780 93,473,875
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 13,029,064 28,729,086 9,583,020 21,130,559
rapeseed oil
edible 146,295,654 322,581,917 144,081,401 317,699,489
rapeseed oil,
inedible 3,926 8,657 726 1,601

DJ U.S. April Grain Imports-Jun 6

In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.

—-Apr 2018—- —-Mar 2018—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds

durum wheat 922,129 2,033,294 4,881,039 10,762,691
spring wheat 20,225,934 44,598,184 27,664,135 60,999,418
winter wheat 36,470,726 80,417,951 21,062,142 46,442,023
wheat/meslin 58,748,103 129,539,567 29,648,248 65,374,387
TOTAL WHEAT 116,366,892 256,588,997 83,255,564 183,578,519

barley 8,566,137 18,888,332 12,595,011 27,771,999
oats 1,610,147 3,550,374 1,532,845 3,379,923

corn 50,394,654 111,120,212 28,587,225 63,034,831
other corn 23,092,817 50,919,661 19,165,334 42,259,561
TOTAL CORN 73,487,471 162,039,874 47,752,559 105,294,393

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322