About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 3-Jun 20-May 2017 Avg
Cotton Planted 76 62 78 76
Cotton Squaring 9 7 10 6
Corn Planted 97 92 95 95
Corn Emerged 86 72 84 83
Soybeans Planted 87 77 81 78
Soybeans Emerged 68 47 55 52
Sorghum Planted 61 49 53 54
Rice Emerged 95 85 90 91
Peanuts Planted 83 73 89 87
Sunflowers Planted 48 30 58 41
Oats Planted 98 94 99 98
Oats Emerged 90 82 95 93
Oats Headed 31 27 34 33
Winter Wheat Headed 83 73 86 83
Winter Wheat Harvested 5 9 4
Spring Wheat Planted 97 91 99 94
Spring Wheat Emerged 81 63 88 82
Barley Planted 97 93 98 98
Barley Emerged 82 68 83 83

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Cotton This Week 1 15 42 38 4
Cotton Last Week
Cotton Last Year 0 6 33 53 8

Corn This Week 1 2 19 61 17
Corn Last Week 1 2 18 63 16
Corn Last Year 1 5 28 68 10

Soybeans This Week 1 3 21 61 14
Soybeans Last Week
Soybeans Last Year

Winter Wheat This Week 14 21 28 29 8
Winter Wheat Last Week 14 20 28 30 8
Winter Wheat Last Year 3 11 36 42 7

Spring Wheat This Week 1 3 26 61 9
Spring Wheat Last Week
Spring Wheat Last Year 3 8 34 48 7

Rice This Week 0 2 25 62 11
Rice Last Week 0 3 24 62 11
Rice Last Year 3 7 2 52 12

Peanuts This Week 0 3 23 62 12
Peanuts Last Week 0 2 25 62 11
Peanuts Last Year 2 7 25 53 13

Oats This Week 4 4 27 56 9
Oats Last Week 2 5 27 56 10
Oats Last Year 2 89 28 53 9

Barley This Week 1 2 18 66 13
Barley Last Week 0 4 27 53 16
Barley Last Year 2 5 24 57 12

Pastures and Ranges This Week 6 12 32 42 8
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 5 12 34 42 7
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 3 8 25 51 13

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jun 4
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 31, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 05/31/2018 05/24/2018 06/01/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 6,324 21,340 45,385
CORN 1,554,961 1,705,655 1,177,107 39,578,067 44,322,976
FLAXSEED 0 0 979 4,769 33,201
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 300 12,679 16,088
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 432 25,843 145,215 4,619,705 4,811,908
SOYBEANS 557,733 579,245 288,095 46,795,868 51,125,126
SUNFLOWER 0 0 48 0 48
WHEAT 341,470 445,709 531,733 23,852,754 27,491,617
Total 2,454,596 2,756,452 2,149,801 114,885,182 127,846,349
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were sharply lower on more world trade fears and on some reports of a few showers in the southern Great Plains. The harvest is underway, so any rains now will not mean much to the crop production potential. Yield reports have been highly variable. The upside was limited by fears of a trade war with Canada and Mexico along with some general selling seen in the Chicago markets. One report indicated yields anywhere from in the teens to about 50 bushels per acre. There is no real estimate of abandoned acres available. The harvest is expected to move fast due to the generally sharply reduced yield potential due to dry conditions in the western Great Plains. Wheat crops here and in other places around the world are still in trouble. The weather focus is now mostly on the Black Sea area, or Ukraine and southern Russia and then into Kazakhstan. These areas are too dry and there is talk of yield loss. Western Russian Spring Wheat areas have been too wet and cold. Canada and Australia have been dry. The previous high on the weekly charts was made in July of last year at 553.5 basis Chicago futures. July futures made a high of 554 before turning lower and moving to a test of chart support at about 518 on the weekly charts
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible late in the week. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers off and on all week. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 479 July. Support is at 503, 49, and 496 July, with resistance at 510, 515, and 524 July. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 519, 515, and 509 July, with resistance at 532, 536, and 549 July. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 591, 581, and 574 July, and resistance is at 600, 608, and 611 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again yesterday as trade tensions were ramped up over the weekend. Mexico is the main concern for Rice traders as Mexico buys a lot of US Rice.. Mexico announced some of the markets it would use to retaliate against the US tariffs, and grains were not on the list. It is our biggest Customer, but there are worries about China, too. China has not bought any significant amounts of US Rice in the past, but the industry has been really pushing them to buy. Potential Iranian and Iraqi demand was hurt when Trump did not certify Iran a couple of weeks ago and moved to get a new nuclear deal with them. Cash market traders say that the domestic cash market remains about unchanged. USDA showed that the crop is in good condition last week, and good conditions should be seen again in the weekly reports that will be released this afternoon. Progress is at or above average for the date The crop is almost completely planted. Emergence is happening quickly with warmer temperatures, and crops in the south are in flood or going into flood. There are a few concerns about yield loss due to late planting in many areas.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible this weekend. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1093 and 1025 July. Support is at 1100, 1088, and 1076 July, with resistance at 1149, 1170, and 1184 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed sharply lower on ideas that Corn crops are in good condition in the Midwest and on trade fears created by the US government. The US announced new tariffs on metals imports from Mexico, Canada, and the EU on Thursday and the targets began to announce their own retaliation on Friday. It was bad news for the Corn market as Mexico especially imports a lot of US Corn Mexico targeted meats and other farm products, but not grains, and Canada announced new tariffs on mostly processed foods and drinks. The EU is expected to target grains and FCOJ. China could become the focus of new tariffs, but it does not import much Corn, and hardly any from the US. It does, however, buy a lot of US Sorghum. Corn planting progress and emergence was strong in the USDA reports last week, and the overall condition is very high. The weekly progress and condition reports show that Corn is planted and the condition is very good and about the same as last week. Domestic demand remains strong, and demand for ethanol is expected to remain strong Export demand is also be holding strong. The weather problems with the Winter Corn crop in Brazil continue with no real rains in sight for major growing areas. There are chances for the crop to get smaller if rains do not appear. There are no rains in the forecast.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 381, 378, and 377 July, and resistance is at 385, 389, and 391 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 220 and 203 July. Support is at 241, 238, and 236 July, and resistance is at 246, 251, and 254 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower due to ideas of good weather and on continuing fears about new Chinese demand. The Chinese said that little or no progress was made over the weekend in the latest round of trade talks. Prices have been pressured for the last week after the Trump administration said it was moving ahead with tariffs even though the negotiations between the two countries were going very well. There were ideas that tariffs could be applied as a tactic to pressure China, but the move has made the negotiations more difficult. The US went ahead with tariffs on metals imports from the EU, Canada, and Mexico last week. There will be retaliation, and it is possible that grains and oilseeds will see new or increased tariffs. USDA showed very good planting progress, and farmers should move quickly now to complete planting as Corn is now mostly in the ground. Emergence and crop conditions are good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 995, 992, and 981 July. Support is at 993, 989, and 983 July, and resistance is at 1014, 1015, and 1023 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 364.00, 362.00, and 353.00 July. Support is at 367.00, 364.00, and 361.00 July, and resistance is at 374.00, 378.00, and 380.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3000 and 2860 July. Support is at 3060, 3030, and 3020 July, with resistance at 3160, 3180, and 3210 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on US ag markets and reports of better rains in the Prairies. Some áreas of the western Prairies saw some beneficial rains last week and more are in the forecast for this week. It is dry in parts of the Prairies, and there is concern that Canola could be affected if some rains do not return soon. Palm Oil was a lower on ideas of big production and lackluster demand. The market thinks there are still large supplies in the country from the previous crop and expects a very big crop to be grown this year. Exports for the month are sharply below last month due primarily to Ramadan. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Exports so far this month ar down from last month. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. Palm Oil prices have held well and traded a Little higher last week despite weaker demand this month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 524.00 and 517.00 July.. Support is at 523.00, 522.00, and 519.00 July, with resistance at 528.00, 533.00, and 536.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2400, 2390, and 2380 August, with resistance at 2450, 2480, and 2500 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry, but light precipitation is possible every few days, mostly in the north and east. Temperatures mostly near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 56 July 160 July 60 July 50 July 18-Jul
July 56 September 62 July 50 July
August 49 September 50 September 50 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
June plus 2 July 95 July
July 108 July plus 2 July 90 September August
August 115 August plus 2 August 87 September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jun 4
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder Bay,
Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 522.30 up 0.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 537.30 dn 5.00
2 Can 524.30 dn 5.00
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 565.30 dn 5.00
2 Can 552.30 dn 5.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 630.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 632.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 632.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 632.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jun 632.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 635.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 635.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 635.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 620.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 497.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2,410 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 210 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 3.9730)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 05
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 202,996 lots, or 7.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 3,631 3,631 3,627 3,627 3,647 3,629 -18 6 286
Sep-18 3,736 3,753 3,691 3,731 3,709 3,726 17 190,322 215,098
Nov-18 – – – 3,737 3,737 3,737 0 0 10
Jan-19 3,821 3,844 3,787 3,823 3,806 3,823 17 12,334 21,948
Mar-19 – – – 3,830 3,813 3,830 17 0 2
May-19 3,890 3,901 3,855 3,881 3,885 3,883 -2 292 2,574
Jul-19 – – – 3,800 3,800 3,800 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,933 3,935 3,908 3,910 3,914 3,913 -1 42 242
Nov-19 – – – 3,887 3,887 3,887 0 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 609,020 lots, or 10.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 1,765 1,770 1,764 1,766 1,768 1,766 -2 26,384 123,996
Sep-18 1,765 1,767 1,758 1,762 1,768 1,761 -7 307,826 729,384
Nov-18 1,799 1,799 1,790 1,794 1,799 1,793 -6 100,040 19,742
Jan-19 1,830 1,834 1,814 1,823 1,835 1,822 -13 157,010 416,068
Mar-19 1,869 1,869 1,856 1,862 1,875 1,860 -15 370 3,710
May-19 1,910 1,912 1,892 1,896 1,913 1,900 -13 17,390 51,348
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,393,246 lots, or 72.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 2,985 2,987 2,928 2,952 2,958 2,968 10 120,124 56,430
Aug-18 2,988 3,027 2,978 2,991 3,015 3,006 -9 144 654
Sep-18 3,041 3,049 2,977 3,011 3,034 3,014 -20 1,299,618 2,387,612
Nov-18 3,073 3,086 3,018 3,046 3,068 3,053 -15 295,788 71,382
Dec-18 3,088 3,088 3,071 3,071 3,111 3,079 -32 4 440
Jan-19 3,125 3,130 3,061 3,090 3,114 3,096 -18 625,996 1,790,388
Mar-19 3,015 3,018 2,969 2,991 3,014 2,998 -16 1,078 5,552
May-19 2,895 2,899 2,851 2,871 2,901 2,876 -25 50,494 237,536
Palm Oil
Turnover: 532,868 lots, or 26.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-18 – – – 5,206 5,206 5,206 0 0 0
Jul-18 – – – 5,106 5,106 5,106 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,236 5,236 5,236 0 0 12
Sep-18 5,086 5,092 4,992 5,044 5,122 5,038 -84 462,098 503,536
Oct-18 5,056 5,056 5,054 5,054 5,146 5,054 -92 12 24
Nov-18 – – – 5,314 5,314 5,314 0 0 12
Dec-18 5,190 5,190 5,184 5,184 5,230 5,186 -44 6 6
Jan-19 5,188 5,190 5,092 5,140 5,218 5,136 -82 70,358 177,894
Feb-19 – – – 5,156 5,238 5,156 -82 0 4
Mar-19 – – – 5,156 5,156 5,156 0 0 0
Apr-19 5,344 5,344 5,288 5,288 5,284 5,316 32 12 18
May-19 5,326 5,326 5,230 5,270 5,352 5,282 -70 382 4,134
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 899,628 lots, or 52.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,640 5,640 5,640 0 0 126
Aug-18 – – – 5,864 5,864 5,864 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,876 5,888 5,754 5,832 5,906 5,830 -76 693,504 911,722
Nov-18 5,964 6,006 5,908 6,006 6,064 5,976 -88 16 32
Dec-18 6,068 6,068 5,958 5,968 6,026 6,016 -10 170 20
Jan-19 6,040 6,054 5,908 5,990 6,072 5,988 -84 201,528 380,632
Mar-19 6,150 6,150 6,076 6,076 6,120 6,112 -8 4 62
May-19 6,122 6,126 5,992 6,076 6,148 6,074 -74 4,406 16,466
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322