About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher again on Friday and as US and world weather and growing conditions remained questionable. The best rally was seen in the December month. July did not rally nearly as much as speculators decided to close out of positions. Ideas are that US Cotton especially is in a bad spot due to the extreme dry and hot weather in western Texas. The current weather is less than ideal in West Texas as hot and dry conditions continue and is not good at other producing areas around the world. The Southeast US is too wet, but began to dry out over the weekend. The weather is bad in India and China, with big heat seen in India and Pakistan and too much rain in China. Lost Chinese production could mean increased sales for the US, especially now since the US will have the quality the Chinese need. Futures traders are looking at a market that still has strong export demand and has seen some very uneven planting and growing conditions in the US. Much of the Southeast and parts of the Delta have seen big rains, especially in the last couple of days. Texas has seen some precipitation, but dryland areas are still very dry. Temperatures have turned hot. Oklahoma and Kansas have improved conditions due to recent rains. It has been hot and dry on the Indian Subcontinent and also in China. China did see some beneficial rains and somewhat cooler temperatures last week. There are ideas that the US is now running short of high quality Cotton to deliver to the exchange and to overseas buyers. Demand remains strong in export markets.
Overnight News: The Delta will be mostly dry and the Southeast will get drier weather over the next couple of days. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 88.50 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 76,983 bales, from 76,385 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9940 July. Support is at 9180, 9120, and 9060 July, with resistance of 9380, 9450, and 9500 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 29, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 418,676
: Positions :
: 128,626 17,039 91,382 81,644 281,493 92,522 15,067 394,174 404,980: 24,502 13,695
: Changes from: May 22, 2018 (Change in open interest: 36,432) :
: 7,687 4,001 12,726 11,276 13,343 4,173 6,732 35,862 36,803: 570 -371
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 30.7 4.1 21.8 19.5 67.2 22.1 3.6 94.1 96.7: 5.9 3.3
: Total Traders: 368 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 181 61 108 61 77 35 22 332 222:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was lower on what appeared to be long liquidation from speculators. Traders are worried about demand and are noting improved production prospects for Florida. In particular, President Trump announced tariffs on metals imports from Mexico, Canada, and the EU. The EU imports a lot of FCOJ and these exports could be hurt by any retaliation made by Europe. The EU has indicated that FCOJ will be on the list of items subject to increased tariffs. The growing conditions in Florida should continue to improve as the rainy season appears to be underway. The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand. Demand is bad enough that year on year inventories are increasing even with the very bad production last year. Florida producers are seeing golf ball sized or larger fruit. Conditions are reported as generally good. Irrigation is being used, but less now after the rains. Brazil also could use more rain as Sao Paulo has been hot and dry. Generally good conditions are reported in Europe and northern Africa.
Overnight News: Florida should get drier weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 161.00 and 154.00 July. Support is at 163.00, 161.00, and 157.00 July, with resistance at 166.00, 169.00, and 172.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 29, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 20,128 :
: Positions :
: 6,417 14,710 1,233 0 0 6,098 210 207 554 902 2,294 :
: Changes from: May 22, 2018 :
: 58 541 8 0 0 702 -7 33 -3 63 59 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 31.9 73.1 6.1 0.0 0.0 30.3 1.0 1.0 2.8 4.5 11.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 73 :
: 18 16 5 0 0 25 4 4 10 7 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jun 1
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 5/19/2018
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
5/19/2018 5/20/2017 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 260.44 207.65 25.4%
Retail/Institutional 7.00 8.51 -17.7%
Total 267.44 216.16 23.7%
Pack
Bulk 0.67 3.70 -81.9%
Retail/Institutional 1.27 0.89 42.7%
Total Pack 1.94 4.59 -57.7%
Reprocessed -1.57 -2.65 -40.8%
Pack from Fruit 0.37 1.93 -80.9%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.04 -0.07 -38.0%
Imports – Foreign 20.48 9.12 124.6%
Domestic Receipts 0.25 0.35 -29.2%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit – – NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – – NC
Reprocessed FCTJ – – NC
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 280.31 218.09 28.5%
Retail/Institutional 8.27 9.40 -12.0%
Total 288.58 227.49 26.9%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.28 5.05 -35.1%
Exports 0.30 0.32 -5.1%
Total (Bulk) 3.58 5.37 -33.3%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.21 1.60 -24.4%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.21 1.60 -24.4%
Total Movement 4.79 6.97 -31.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 276.73 212.72 30.1%
Retail/Institutional 7.06 7.80 -9.5%
Ending Inventory 283.79 220.52 28.7%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
19-May-18 20-May-17 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 185.02 212.24 -12.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.20 6.78 6.1%
Total 192.21 219.03 -12.2%
Pack
Bulk 85.32 136.33 -37.4%
Retail/Institutional 41.98 47.69 -12.0%
Total Pack 127.31 184.01 -30.8%
Reprocessed -86.21 -110.79 -22.2%
Pack from Fruit 41.10 73.22 -43.9%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.67 -3.45 -80.5%
Imports – Foreign 232.03 174.56 32.9%
Domestic Receipts 7.67 3.39 126.4%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.40 0.73 -45.4%
from Non-Reporting Entit 1.00 2.56 -60.9%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.47 0.39 19.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 426.37 415.96 2.5%
Retail/Institutional 49.18 54.47 -9.7%
Total 475.55 470.43 1.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 139.09 149.20 -6.8%
Domestic 10.55 54.04 -80.5%
Exports 149.65 203.24 -26.4%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 42.12 46.68 -9.8%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 42.12 46.68 -9.8%
Total Movement 191.77 249.91 -23.3%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 276.73 212.72 30.1%
Retail/Institutional 7.06 7.80 -9.5%
Ending Inventory 283.79 220.52 28.7%

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack – Jun 1
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 5/26/2018
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
5/26/2018 5/27/2017 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 276.73 212.72 30.1%
Retail/Institutional 7.06 7.80 -9.5%
Total 283.79 220.52 28.7%
Pack
Bulk 0.43 2.53 -83.0%
Retail/Institutional 0.97 1.19 -19.0%
Total Pack 1.40 3.72 -62.5%
Reprocessed -1.40 -2.49 -43.9%
Pack from Fruit – 1.24 -100.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.07 0.21 -68.0%
Imports – Foreign 8.48 6.79 25.0%
Domestic Receipts 0.21 0.50 -59.2%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit – – NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – – NC
Reprocessed FCTJ – – NC
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 284.51 220.27 29.2%
Retail/Institutional 8.02 8.99 -10.7%
Total 292.54 229.26 27.6%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.42 4.06 -15.7%
Exports 0.26 0.99 -73.8%
Total (Bulk) 3.68 5.06 -27.1%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.45 1.33 8.6%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.45 1.33 8.6%
Total Movement 5.13 6.39 -19.7%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 280.83 215.21 30.5%
Retail/Institutional 6.58 7.66 -14.1%
Ending Inventory 287.41 222.87 29.0%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
26-May-18 27-May-17 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 185.02 212.24 -12.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.20 6.78 6.1%
Total 192.21 219.03 -12.2%
Pack
Bulk 85.76 138.86 -38.2%
Retail/Institutional 42.95 48.88 -12.1%
Total Pack 128.70 187.74 -31.4%
Reprocessed -87.61 -113.28 -22.7%
Pack from Fruit 41.10 74.46 -44.8%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.74 -3.24 -77.1%
Imports – Foreign 240.51 181.35 32.6%
Domestic Receipts 7.87 3.89 102.4%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.40 0.73 -45.4%
from Non-Reporting Entit 1.00 2.56 -60.9%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 0.47 0.39 19.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 434.16 423.51 2.5%
Retail/Institutional 50.14 55.66 -9.9%
Total 484.31 479.17 1.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 142.52 153.26 -7.0%
Domestic 10.81 55.03 -80.3%
Exports 153.33 208.29 -26.4%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 43.57 48.01 -9.2%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 43.57 48.01 -9.2%
Total Movement 196.90 256.30 -23.2%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 280.83 215.21 30.5%
Retail/Institutional 6.58 7.66 -14.1%
Ending Inventory 287.41 222.87 29.0%

COFFEE
General Comments Futures in New York and London were a Little lower on Friday, but higher for the week as the truckers strike in Brazil continued to delay shipments of Coffee from the country and on some forecasts for cold temperatures in southern Brazil over the weekend. It is not clear that the cold will move far enough north to hurt Coffee. More cold weather is coming sooner or later as the Winter season has just started. It remains mostly dry in Arabica areas, and there is no rain in the forecast for the next week. The truckers strike has delayed shipments for a significant amount of Coffee just as the harvest is beginning. However, it does not appear that buyers are looking for alternatives right now. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. It has been a little dry so far this year in the region. Speculators anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have remained short in the market. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchants have not been willing to sell at current prices. Vietnamese cash prices are weaker this week with good supplies noted in the domestic market. Current rains in the country are favorable for the crops.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are little changed today and are about 2.018 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 114.40 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions, but light precipitation is likely every few days. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 124.00 and 127.00 July. Support is at 120.00, 119.00, and 117.00 July, and resistance is at 125.00, 126.00 and 128.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1730, 1720, and 1700 July, and resistance is at 1760, 1780, and 1800 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 29, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 316,715
: Positions :
: 44,543 89,774 89,716 112,994 110,573 52,007 17,449 299,260 307,512: 17,454 9,203
: Changes from: May 22, 2018 (Change in open interest: 1,895) :
: -770 -2,249 -2,213 481 1,577 4,970 4,714 2,469 1,830: -574 65
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.1 28.3 28.3 35.7 34.9 16.4 5.5 94.5 97.1: 5.5 2.9
: Total Traders: 556 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 191 161 173 141 124 31 22 453 407:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/29/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
120,947 75,562 61,047 8,110 7,569 1,654
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 62.5% 50.5% 6.7% 6.3% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
153 57 50 15 5 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
11,266 25,380 7,943 1,269 2,721 9,536
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
9.3% 21.0% 6.6% 1.0% 2.3% 7.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 28 15 14 6 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,607 5,097
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 4.2%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London after failing to overcome resistance at 1400 New York futures on the weekly charts. Prices have been supported by the dry weather in Brazil and also the truckers strike there that is now over two weeks old. Shipments to mills and ports have stopped due to the action. The cold air in southern Brazil could get cold enough to damage Sugarcane still in the fields. Most traders remain focused on the big world production. It is dry in parts of Brazil, including some Sugarcane production areas, and there is some talk of losses to the crop in the near future unless rains return soon. There are no real rains in the forecast for now. However, the initial harvest has been big and processing has been more active than last year. India is back to export Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. The government is subsidizing industry and producers to help maintain an active market flow and to prevent the buildup of Sugar in storage. India could raise the internal price or try to stockpile supplies in meetings that are now scheduled for this week. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Middle East and North African buyers are reported to be buying normal or less than normal amounts of Sugar in the world market right now.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather, but light precipitation is possible every few days. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1380 October. Support is at 1250, 1220, and 1200 October, and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1350 October. Trends in London are up with objectives of 368.00 August. Support is at 350.00, 347.00, and 345.00 August, and resistance is at 360.00, 361.00, and 367.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 29, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,156,918
: Positions :
: 177,220 256,810 235,459 381,602 550,799 278,667 43,403 1,072,948 1,086,472: 83,970 70,446
: Changes from: May 22, 2018 (Change in open interest: -17,629) :
: -6,287 -38,476 -26,152 7,088 39,868 13,605 13,655 -11,745 -11,104: -5,884 -6,525
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.3 22.2 20.4 33.0 47.6 24.1 3.8 92.7 93.9: 7.3 6.1
: Total Traders: 282 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 71 88 97 78 77 25 16 236 223:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/29/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
95,958 29,902 70,315 21,273 1,798 1,378
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 31.2% 73.3% 22.2% 1.9% 1.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
145 46 55 14 4 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,768 10,141 6,400 5,641 989 1,282
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
25.8% 10.6% 6.7% 5.9% 1.0% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
35 11 18 10 3 7
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,314 3,655
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.5% 3.8%

COCOA
General Comments Futures were a little higher. The ICCO cut its production surpluses for 2017-18 to 10,000 tons, down from an estimate of 105,000 tons in February. Production was estimated at 4.744 million tons, from 4.748 million in February.. It is possible that Cocoa has now made a significant top in both markets. Funds have turned sellers and appear ready to continue to liquidate long positions due in part to the trend change. Fears that developed about the EU economy over the weekend spilled into Cocoa as Europe is the largest per capita consumer of chocolate in the world. Italy is having problems again and there are fears that the problems there could spread to other EU states. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia. The mid crop harvest is active in West Africa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.128 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 2420, 2360, and 2250 July, with resistance at 2500, 2540, and 2600 July. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1760 and 1670 July. Support is at 1730, 1710, and 1690 July, with resistance at 1780, 1810, and 1870 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 29, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 379,809
: Positions :
: 90,158 42,137 98,548 114,409 197,909 61,100 31,494 364,216 370,088: 15,593 9,721
: Changes from: May 22, 2018 (Change in open interest: 6,715) :
: -5,115 -4,237 -1,903 4,322 2,635 10,476 11,704 7,780 8,199: -1,065 -1,484
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.7 11.1 25.9 30.1 52.1 16.1 8.3 95.9 97.4: 4.1 2.6
: Total Traders: 264 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 77 92 40 42 27 14 219 182:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/29/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
336,938 162,643 221,032 17,849 20,878 27,553
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 48.3% 65.6% 5.3% 6.2% 8.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
168 56 51 17 8 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
58,829 3,708 29,168 3,324 191 31,100
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
17.5% 1.1% 8.7% 1.0% 0.1% 9.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
46 9 16 8 9 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,471 3,307
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.9% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322