About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Jun 1
For the week ended May 24, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 29.5 270.9 23743.3 28369.4 1555.1 2668.6
hrw 15.0 59.5 9306.4 11916.3 262.3 664.5
srw 1.0 13.7 2539.1 2526.1 235.6 394.5
hrs 9.2 101.3 6172.2 8571.5 558.2 916.8
white 4.3 96.3 5320.3 4828.1 477.3 612.0
durum 0.0 0.0 405.4 527.5 21.8 80.8
corn 993.1 149.3 54464.5 53667.8 16907.3 2652.8
soybeans 273.4 771.6 55465.3 58438.1 9377.2 6327.9
soymeal 140.7 2.3 10907.9 9581.7 3028.1 283.0
soyoil 6.0 0.0 878.0 909.3 216.0 1.8
upland cotto 16.7 238.1 16258.1 13784.8 4863.7 4488.1
pima cotton 21.5 7.6 613.2 603.3 109.4 51.8
sorghum -295.8 0.0 5093.3 4308.8 263.5 38.0
barley -0.6 0.9 32.5 25.9 1.2 47.4
rice 17.6 0.0 2691.0 3310.4 394.8 16.3

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were a little higher on the weather. The upside was limited by fears of a trade war with Canada and Mexico along with some general selling seen in the Chicago markets. The fundamentals of the weather market are still there, but the US Winter Wheat harvest should be getting started, so supplies available to the market should start to increase. Wheat crops here and in other places around the world are still in trouble. The weather focus is now mostly on the Black Sea area, or Ukraine and southern Russia and then into Kazakhstan. These areas are too dry and there is talk of yield loss. Western Russian Spring Wheat areas have been too wet and cold. Canada and Australia have been dry. India and Pakistan have been very hot. Wheat is also a market looking for some consumptive demand, but the weekly export sales reports remain poor. Black Sea prices remain cheaper, but are now starting to turn higher due to the weather problems.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather after showers today. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions after showers today. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers off and on all week. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 505 and 479 July. Support is at 515, 510, and 499 July, with resistance at 532, 538, and 545 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 534, 527, and 523 July, with resistance at 549, 554, and 565 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 597 and 594 July. Support is at 611, 606, and 600 July, and resistance is at 621, 627, and 633 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower in response to news that President Trump had decided to move ahead with tariffs on metals imports from Mexico, the EU, and Canada. Mexico announced some of the markets it would use to retaliate against the US tariffs, and grains were not on the list. However, the US sells a lot of Rice to Mexico and it i sour biggest Customer, and these sales are now threatened more by the Trump announcement Rather than anything done by the Mexicans.. Cash market traders say that the domestic cash market remains about unchanged. USDA showed that the crop is in good condition this week. Progress is at or above average for the date The crop is almost completely planted now and is in mostly good or very good condition. Emergence is happening quickly with warmer temperatures, and crops in the south are in flood or going into flood.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1140, 1126, and 1100 July, with resistance at 1170, 1184, and 1196 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed slightly higher. The US announced new tariffs on metals imports from Mexico, Canada, and the EU yesterday. It was bad news for the Corn market as Mexico especially imports a lot of US Corn The US government thinks it must continue to push ahead on the tariffs to have them ready in case the negotiations with the Chinese fail. Corn planting progress and emergence was strong in the USDA reports yesterday, and the overall condition is very high. The weekly progress and condition reports were negative for prices. Domestic demand remains strong, and demand for ethanol is expected to remain strong for a while as Crude Oil and petroleum products remain in price uptrends Export demand should also be holding strong. The weather problems with the Winter Corn crop in Brazil continue with no real rains in sight for major growing areas. There are chances for the crop to ge smaller if rains do not appear soon. There are no rains in the forecast. The truckers strike is hurting movement of Corn to domestic Feed operations and some animals are starving to death. There is also talk now of potential for crop losses in Ukraine Corn areas and parts of Russian grain areas from dry weather. US conditions are good as rains were reported in some of the drier areas of the southern and southwestern Midwest yesterday.
Overnight News: Ethanol production rose to 1.041 million barrels per day in the week ending May 25, up from 1.028 million the previous week and 1.020 million the previous year. Ethanol used an estimated 107.2 million bushels of corn in the week ending May 25, versus 105.9 million the previous week and 104.9 million the previous year. Marketing year to date estimated corn use for ethanol production totaled 4.094 billion bushels. Ethanol stocks fell to 21.3 million barrels for the week ending May 25, from 22.1 million the previous week and 22.8 million the previous year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 385 July. Support is at 391, 387, and 385 July, and resistance is at 398, 401, and 404 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objective of 220 and 203 July. Support is at 238, 236, and 234 July, and resistance is at 247, 249, and 254 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were mixed to lower on ideas of good weather and on continuing fears about new Chinese demand. Prices have been pressured since Tuesday after the Trump administration said it was moving ahead with tariffs even though the negotiations between the two countries are going very well. There were ideas that tariffs could be applied as a tactic to pressure China, and this move appeared mostly designed to get legal and formal hurdles out-of-the-way as a precaution. The US went ahead with tariffs on metals imports from the EU, Canada, and Mexico yesterday. There will be retaliation, and it is possible that grains and oilseeds will see new or increased tariffs. USDA showed very good planting progress, and farmers should move quickly now to complete planting as Corn is now mostly in the ground. Only doublé crop Soybeans will be left and will need to wait until the Wheat is harvested. Farmers in much of the Midwest are planting Soybeans ort are done planting.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 995, 992, and 981 July. Support is at 1014, 1011, and 1008 July, and resistance is at 1031, 1036, and 1044 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 364.00, 362.00, and 353.00 July. Support is at 373.00, 370.00, and 367.00 July, and resistance is at 380.00, 383.00, and 386.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3100, 3060, and 3030 July, with resistance at 3180, 3210, and 3220 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower. The US Dollar was lower yesterday and about all world currencies were higher. It is dry in parts of the Prairies, and there is concern that Canola could be affected if some rains do not return soon. Forecasts call for generally dry conditions to continue for now. Palm Oil was a little higher in consolidation trading. The market thinks there are still large supplies in the country from the previous crop and expects a very big crop to be grown this year. Exports for the month are sharply below last month due primarily to Ramadan. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Exports so far this month ar down from last month.. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. Palm Oil prices have held well and traded a Little higher last week despite weaker demand this month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed.. Support is at 533.00, 528.00, and 525.00 July, with resistance at 536.00, 540.00, and 542.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2400, 2390, and 2380 August, with resistance at 2450, 2480, and 2500 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry Temperatures mostly near to below normal this weekend, then near normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
June 58 July 160 July 55 July 52 July 18-Jul
July 58 September 60 July 54 July
August 53 September 48 September 55 August
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
June minus 2 July 95 July
July 80 July minus 3 July 92 September August
August 100 August minus 2 August 85 September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 31
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 523.70 dn 2.10
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 546.10 dn 1.60
2 Can 533.10 dn 1.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 574.10 dn 1.60
2 Can 561.10 dn 1.60
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – June 1
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 635.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 640.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 640.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 642.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 637.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul 642.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 642.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 645.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 627.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 502.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2,445 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 213.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jun 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 166,606 lots, or 6.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 3,647 3,652 3,647 -5 0 280
Sep-18 3,693 3,716 3,670 3,682 3,697 3,692 -5 159,220 228,670
Nov-18 – – – 3,737 3,737 3,737 0 0 10
Jan-19 3,793 3,813 3,771 3,776 3,791 3,789 -2 7,188 21,738
Mar-19 – – – 3,813 3,815 3,813 -2 0 2
May-19 3,850 3,867 3,841 3,846 3,839 3,853 14 164 2,602
Jul-19 – – – 3,800 3,800 3,800 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,883 3,900 3,876 3,876 3,863 3,885 22 28 232
Nov-19 3,886 3,888 3,886 3,888 3,903 3,887 -16 6 14
Corn
Turnover: 717,520 lots, or 12.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 1,775 1,777 1,760 1,765 1,772 1,771 -1 47,780 140,926
Sep-18 1,778 1,783 1,765 1,768 1,780 1,771 -9 341,808 785,506
Nov-18 1,814 1,814 1,794 1,795 1,813 1,800 -13 205,590 14,880
Jan-19 1,837 1,846 1,826 1,827 1,841 1,834 -7 104,196 441,236
Mar-19 1,882 1,884 1,868 1,868 1,879 1,875 -4 330 3,748
May-19 1,915 1,916 1,898 1,899 1,913 1,905 -8 17,816 32,352
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,508,154 lots, or 45.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 2,954 2,969 2,947 2,952 2,946 2,955 9 98,976 98,724
Aug-18 – – – 3,013 3,013 3,013 0 0 646
Sep-18 3,026 3,044 3,023 3,029 3,021 3,032 11 879,500 2,475,870
Nov-18 3,064 3,072 3,054 3,059 3,057 3,063 6 115,614 28,406
Dec-18 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,091 3,076 3,091 15 2 448
Jan-19 3,102 3,115 3,093 3,101 3,090 3,104 14 383,824 1,750,878
Mar-19 3,004 3,016 2,999 3,001 2,999 3,006 7 108 5,406
May-19 2,873 2,899 2,870 2,889 2,870 2,885 15 30,130 218,782
Palm Oil
Turnover: 294,036 lots, or 15.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-18 – – – 5,206 5,206 5,206 0 0 0
Jul-18 – – – 5,106 5,106 5,106 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,236 5,236 5,236 0 0 12
Sep-18 5,098 5,112 5,076 5,098 5,108 5,092 -16 241,826 545,778
Oct-18 5,190 5,190 5,110 5,110 5,118 5,148 30 30 22
Nov-18 – – – 5,316 5,286 5,316 30 0 12
Dec-18 – – – 5,178 5,178 5,178 0 0 2
Jan-19 5,170 5,200 5,148 5,192 5,186 5,172 -14 51,450 185,138
Feb-19 5,238 5,238 5,238 5,238 5,152 5,238 86 2 4
Mar-19 – – – 5,156 5,156 5,156 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,284 5,284 5,284 0 0 18
May-19 5,310 5,322 5,280 5,322 5,306 5,300 -6 728 4,132
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 605,650 lots, or 35.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,640 5,640 5,640 0 0 126
Aug-18 5,800 5,928 5,800 5,928 5,826 5,864 38 4 10
Sep-18 5,848 5,882 5,830 5,862 5,850 5,856 6 469,634 947,294
Nov-18 5,988 5,988 5,988 5,988 5,838 5,988 150 2 30
Dec-18 – – – 5,990 5,990 5,990 0 0 22
Jan-19 5,998 6,032 5,982 6,018 6,000 6,008 8 133,982 348,076
Mar-19 – – – 6,136 6,136 6,136 0 0 64
May-19 6,088 6,116 6,066 6,102 6,094 6,090 -4 2,028 12,956
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322