About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower on reports of some showers in Kansas and Nebraska yesterday along with some general selling seen in the Chicago markets. The fundamentals of the weather market are still there, but the US Winter Wheat harvest should be getting started, so supplies available to the market should start to increase Wheat crops here and in other places around the world are still in trouble. The weather focus is now mostly on the Black Sea area, or Ukraine and southern Russia and then into Kazakhstan. These areas are too dry and there is talk of yield loss. Western Russian Spring Wheat areas have been too wet and cold. Canada and Australia have been dry. India and Pakistan have been very hot. Wheat is also a market looking for some consumptive demand, but the weekly export sales reports remain poor. Black Sea prices remain cheaper, but are now starting to turn higher due to the weather problems.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather after showers today. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions after showers today. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers off and on all week. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 525 and 479 July. Support is at 517, 515, and 510 July, with resistance at 532, 538, and 545 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 536, 527, and 523 July, with resistance at 547, 554, and 565 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 597 and 594 July. Support is at 606, 600, and 593 July, and resistance is at 620, 627, and 633 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher as the recent selling dried up and little new selling was seen. Cash market traders are wondering why the market has fallen so hard as the domestic cash market remains about unchanged. It looks like futures are going to move higher now to better reflect the cash market. USDA showed that the crop is in good condition this week. Progress is at or above average for the date The crop is almost completely planted now and is in mostly good or very good condition. Emergence is happening quickly with warmer temperatures, and crops in the south are in flood or going into flood. There is some concern about reduced yields as some areas have planted late or into less than perfect conditions, but most producers seem happy with the way the crops are developing now.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1184, 1196, and 1208 July, with resistance at 1184, 1196, and 1208 July.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower as rains were reported in the Eastern Midwest and as tariff preparations against China continue even though negotiations are going well. The US government thinks it must continue to push ahead on the tariffs to have them ready in case the negotiations with the Chinese fail. Corn planting progress and emergence was strong in the USDA reports yesterday, and the overall condition is very high. The weekly progress and condition reports were negative for prices. Domestic demand remains strong, and demand for ethanol is expected to remain strong for a while as Crude Oil and petroleum products remain in price uptrends Export demand should also be holding strong. The weather problems with the Winter Corn crop in Brazil continue with no real rains in sight for major growing areas. There are chances for the crop to ge smaller if rains do not appear soon. There are no rains in the forecast after this week. The truckers strike is hurting movement of Corn to domestic Feed operations and some animals are starving to death. There is also talk now of potential for crop losses in Ukraine Corn areas and parts of Russian grain areas from dry weather. US conditions are good as rains were reported in some of the drier areas of the southern and southwestern Midwest yesterday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 385 July. Support is at 391, 387, and 385 July, and resistance is at 395, 398, and 401 July. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objective of 220 and 203 July. Support is at 236, 234, and 231 July, and resistance is at 244, 247, and 249 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on ideas of good weather and on continuing fears about new Chinese demand. Prices fell starting on Tuesday after the Trump administration said it was moving ahead with tariffs even though the negotiations between the two countries are going very well. There were ideas that tariffs could be applied as a tactic to pressure China, but this move appeared mostly designed to get legal and formal hurdles out-of-the-way as a precaution. USDA showed very good planting progress, and farmers should move quickly now to complete planting as Corn is now mostly in the ground. Only doublé crop Soybeans will be left and will need to wait until the Wheat is harvested. Farmers in much of the Midwest are planting Soybeans ort are done planting. The weather will be watched this week for continued planting progress and overall crop conditions.. Rains are coming to areas east f the Mississippi River and will be welcomed by most producers in that area. Western areas will stay too wet in the north and too dry in the south.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 995, 992, and 981 July. Support is at 1015, 1011, and 1008 July, and resistance is at 1036, 1044, and 1049 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 364.00, 362.00, and 353.00 July. Support is at 373.00, 370.00, and 367.00 July, and resistance is at 378.00, 380.00, and 383.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3100, 3060, and 3030 July, with resistance at 3180, 3210, and 3220 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower. The US Dollar was lower yesterday and about all world currencies were higher. It is dry in parts of the Prairies, and there is concern that Canola could be affected if some rains do not return soon. Forecasts call for generally dry conditions to continue for now. Palm Oil was lower in response to the bad export data from the private sources. The market thinks there are still large supplies in the country from the previous crop and expects a very big crop to be grown this year. Exports for the month are sharply below last month due primarily to Ramadan. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Exports so far this month ar down from last month.. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. Palm Oil prices have held well and traded a Little higher last week despite weaker demand this month.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1.199 million tons in May, from 1.331 million in April. Am Spec said that exports were 1.196 million tons, from 1.311 million in April.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with no objectives.. Support is at 533.00, 528.00, and 525.00 July, with resistance at 540.00, 542.00, and 545.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2400, 2390, and 2380 August, with resistance at 2450, 2480, and 2500 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday in the west. Chances for more precipitation today and tomorrow in the east temperatures mostly near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 59 July 164 July 55 July 60 July 18-Jul
June 56 July 55 July 52 July
July 56 September 60 July 52 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
June minus 2 July 95 July
July 80 July minus 3 July 92 September August
August 100 August minus 2 August 85 September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 30
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 525.80 up 1.60
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 547.70 dn 2.10
2 Can 534.70 dn 2.10
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 575.70 dn 2.10
2 Can 562.70 dn 2.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 31
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 632.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul 637.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 637.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 637.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jun 635.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul 640.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 640.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 640.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 622.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 502.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2,430 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 211 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 3.9780)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 191,514 lots, or 7.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 3,652 3,652 3,652 0 0 280
Sep-18 3,711 3,720 3,676 3,687 3,727 3,697 -30 182,670 227,398
Nov-18 3,708 3,762 3,708 3,762 3,724 3,737 13 8 10
Jan-19 3,816 3,816 3,771 3,786 3,820 3,791 -29 8,396 20,060
Mar-19 – – – 3,815 3,815 3,815 0 0 2
May-19 3,847 3,850 3,820 3,850 3,872 3,839 -33 420 2,632
Jul-19 – – – 3,800 3,798 3,800 2 0 8
Sep-19 3,861 3,879 3,850 3,871 3,898 3,863 -35 20 226
Nov-19 – – – 3,903 3,903 3,903 0 0 14
Corn
Turnover: 430,816 lots, or 7.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 1,772 1,780 1,768 1,775 1,775 1,772 -3 26,886 160,470
Sep-18 1,784 1,788 1,774 1,777 1,786 1,780 -6 274,518 819,374
Nov-18 1,813 1,822 1,808 1,811 1,819 1,813 -6 3,500 3,612
Jan-19 1,841 1,850 1,835 1,837 1,849 1,841 -8 117,070 425,602
Mar-19 1,882 1,886 1,873 1,877 1,886 1,879 -7 286 3,806
May-19 1,920 1,922 1,905 1,912 1,923 1,913 -10 8,556 31,186
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,064,486 lots, or 62.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 2,968 2,972 2,925 2,947 2,975 2,946 -29 47,632 117,180
Aug-18 – – – 3,013 3,031 3,013 -18 0 646
Sep-18 3,042 3,049 3,002 3,020 3,054 3,021 -33 1,405,612 2,507,872
Nov-18 3,074 3,078 3,038 3,051 3,088 3,057 -31 9,814 10,296
Dec-18 3,077 3,082 3,071 3,071 3,125 3,076 -49 16 446
Jan-19 3,116 3,118 3,073 3,090 3,124 3,090 -34 559,290 1,737,694
Mar-19 3,015 3,018 2,980 3,000 3,033 2,999 -34 912 5,412
May-19 2,888 2,892 2,861 2,868 2,904 2,870 -34 41,210 211,514
Palm Oil
Turnover: 459,468 lots, or 23.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-18 – – – 5,206 5,206 5,206 0 0 0
Jul-18 – – – 5,106 5,106 5,106 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,236 5,236 5,236 0 0 12
Sep-18 5,100 5,138 5,078 5,096 5,096 5,108 12 384,946 544,912
Oct-18 – – – 5,118 5,118 5,118 0 0 22
Nov-18 – – – 5,286 5,274 5,286 12 0 12
Dec-18 – – – 5,178 5,178 5,178 0 0 2
Jan-19 5,178 5,220 5,156 5,172 5,180 5,186 6 72,090 178,984
Feb-19 – – – 5,152 5,152 5,152 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 5,156 5,156 5,156 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,284 5,278 5,284 6 0 18
May-19 5,278 5,330 5,274 5,300 5,292 5,306 14 2,432 3,852
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 868,722 lots, or 51.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,640 5,640 5,640 0 0 126
Aug-18 – – – 5,826 5,826 5,826 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,842 5,888 5,822 5,844 5,864 5,850 -14 659,558 952,934
Nov-18 5,730 5,948 5,730 5,948 6,024 5,838 -186 8 28
Dec-18 – – – 5,990 5,990 5,990 0 0 22
Jan-19 5,980 6,038 5,970 6,000 6,006 6,000 -6 206,392 329,382
Mar-19 6,188 6,188 6,086 6,086 6,022 6,136 114 8 64
May-19 6,076 6,124 6,058 6,082 6,102 6,094 -8 2,756 12,416
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322