About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 27-May 20-May 2017 Avg
Cotton Planted 62 52 61 59
Cotton Squaring 7 6 3
Corn Planted 92 81 90 90
Corn Emerged 72 50 70 69
Soybeans Planted 77 56 65 62
Soybeans Emerged 47 26 34 32
Sorghum Planted 49 39 43 44
Rice Planted 98 93 96 95
Rice Emerged 85 74 83 83
Peanuts Planted 73 63 77 74
Sunflowers Planted 30 12 38 25
Oats Planted 94 86 95 95
Oats Emerged 82 67 90 86
Oats Headed 27 25 29 29
Winter Wheat Headed 73 61 79 75
Spring Wheat Planted 91 79 95 89
Spring Wheat Emerged 63 37 77 68
Barley Planted 93 81 93 91
Barley Emerged 68 45 74 72

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Corn This Week 1 2 18 63 16
Corn Last Week
Corn Last Year 1 6 28 57 8

Winter Wheat This Week 14 20 28 30 8
Winter Wheat Last Week 15 20 29 29 7
Winter Wheat Last Year 4 11 35 41 9

Rice This Week 0 2 25 62 11
Rice Last Week 0 3 24 62 11
Rice Last Year 3 7 2 52 12

Oats This Week 2 5 27 56 10
Oats Last Week 5 7 30 52 6
Oats Last Year 2 6 31 52 9

Barley This Week 0 4 27 53 16
Barley Last Week
Barley Last Year 0 3 27 55 15

Pastures and Ranges This Week 5 12 34 42 7
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 5 14 35 39 7
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 2 8 27 50 13

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – May 29
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING MAY 24, 2018
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 05/24/2018 05/17/2018 05/25/2017 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 431 21,340 39,205
CORN 1,705,190 1,547,561 1,194,729 38,022,641 43,145,869
FLAXSEED 0 24 122 4,769 32,418
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 200 12,679 15,788
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 25,843 9,360 121,397 4,617,705 4,666,693
SOYBEANS 576,406 906,688 351,474 46,234,782 50,837,031
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 431,239 349,542 605,517 23,496,814 27,046,339
Total 2,738,678 2,813,175 2,273,870 112,410,730 125,783,343
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were higher on weather concerns in early trading, but moved lower in sympathy with a sharply higher US Dollar and weaker Corn and Soybeans markets later in the day. Wheat crops here and in other places around the world are still in trouble. The weather focus is now mostly on the Black Sea area, or Ukraine and southern Russia and then into Kazakhstan. These areas are too dry and there is talk of yield loss. Western Russian Spring Wheat areas have been too wet and cold. Canada and Australia have been dry. India and Pakistan have been very hot. Wheat is also a market looking for some consumptive demand, but the weekly export sales reports remain poor. Black Sea prices remain cheaper, but are now starting to turn higher due to the weather problems.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather after showers today. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions after showers today. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see showers off and on all week. Temperatures should average mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 532, 528, and 520 July, with resistance at 538, 545, and 547 July. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 547, 539, and 527 July, with resistance at 565, 568, and 571 July. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 623, 620, and 617 July, and resistance is at 633, 643, and 647 July.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was lower again on what appeared to be speculative selling. Cash market traders are wondering why as the domestic cash market remained about unchanged. After the close, USDA once again showed that the crop is in good condition. Progress is at or above average for the date Light volume buying entered the pit after midsession and found almost no selling interest, and prices closed higher for the day. The crop is almost completely planted now and is in mostly good or very good condition. Emergence is happening quickly with warmer temperatures, and crops in the south are in flood or going into flood. There is some concern about reduced yields as some areas have planted late or into less than perfect conditions, but most producers seem happy with the way the crops are developing now.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives of 1161 July. Support is at 1140, 1126, and 1100 July, with resistance at 1156, 1172, and 1184 July.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – May 30
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 17.46 11.17 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 17.07 11.55 0.00
Brokens 10.53 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher in overnight trading, but turned lower in response to a sharply higher US Dollar and some comments by the government that tariff preparations against China were continuing even though negotiations are going well. The US government thinks it must continue to push ahead on the tariffs to have them ready in case the negotiations with the Chinese fail.. Corn planting progress and emergence was strong in the USDA reports yesterday, and the overall condition is very high. Domestic demand remains strong, and demand for ethanol is expected to remain strong for a while as Crude Oil and petroleum products remain in price uptrends Export demand should also be holding strong. The weather problems with the Winter Corn crop in Brazil continue with no real rains in sight for major growing areas. There are chances for the crop to ge smaller if rains do not appear soon. There are no rains in the forecast after this week. The truckers strike is hurting movement of Corn to domestic Feed operations and some animals are starving to death. There is also talk now of potential for crop losses in Ukraine Corn areas and parts of Russian grain areas from dry weather. Parts of the southern and western Midwest need rain, while areas in the north and northwest have had too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 397, 395, and 394 July, and resistance is at 401, 404, and 408 July. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 240, 236, and 234 July, and resistance is at 247, 249, and 254 July.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher as China continued to buy impressive amounts of new crop Soybeans. However, prices fell after the Trump administration said it was moving ahead with tariffs even though the negotiations between the two countries are going very well. There were ideas that tariffs could be applied as a tactic to pressure China, but this move appeared mostly designed to get legal and formal hurdles out-of-the-way as a precaution. After the close, USDA showed very good planting progress.. Ideas are that China can buy more Soybeans this week ahead of a new round of talks in China this weekend. The trade also hopes for a peaceful solution to the NAFTA talks to keep Mexican and Canadian demand alive, but these talks are not moving forward as fast as those with the Chinese. Farmers in much of the Midwest are planting Soybeans ort are done planting. The weather will be watched this week for continued planting progress and overall crop conditions.. Rains are coming to areas east f the Mississippi River and will be welcomed by most producers in that area. Western areas will stay too wet in the north and too dry in the south.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1025, 1020, and 1011 July, and resistance is at 1036, 1044, and 1049 July. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 377.00, 374.00, and 370.00 July, and resistance is at 383.00, 386.00, and 387.00 July. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3100, 3060, and 3030 July, with resistance at 3180, 3210, and 3220 July.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher as the Canadian Dollar was lower. The US Dollar was sharply higher yesterday and about all world currencies were lower. Canola rallied in spite of the bad price action for Soybeans in Chicago. It is dry in parts of the Prairies, and there is concern that Canola could be affected if some rains do not return soon. Forecasts call for generally dry conditions to continue for now. Palm Oil was higher after trading lower for much of the day. Chart support held and that created late buying interest. Exports for the month are sharply below last month due primarily to Ramadan. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand, but participants want to see the demand. Exports so far this month ar down from last month.. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. Palm Oil prices have held well and traded a Little higher last week despite weaker demand this month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with no objectives.. Support is at 536.00, 533.00, and 528.00 July, with resistance at 540.00, 542.00, and 545.00 July. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2400, 2390, and 2380 August, with resistance at 2430, 2450, and 2480 August.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday in the west. Chances for more precipitation today and tomorrow in the east Temperatures mostly near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
May 56 July 166 July 55 July 58 July 18-Jul
June 52 July 55 July 52 July
July 52 September 60 July 52 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
June minus 2 July 95 July
July minus 3 July 90 September August
August 90 August Price 85 September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – May 29
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 524.20 dn 1.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 549.80 up 1.20
2 Can 536.80 up 1.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 577.80 up 1.20
2 Can 564.80 up 1.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – May 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 632.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul 637.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 637.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 637.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Jun 635.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul 640.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Aug/Sep 640.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 640.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 620.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 502.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 2,435 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jun 212 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 3.9880)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – May 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 288,226 lots, or 10.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 3,652 3,652 3,652 0 0 280
Sep-18 3,704 3,759 3,693 3,712 3,705 3,727 22 274,172 232,402
Nov-18 – – – 3,724 3,724 3,724 0 0 8
Jan-19 3,800 3,852 3,789 3,803 3,801 3,820 19 13,312 19,478
Mar-19 – – – 3,815 3,797 3,815 18 0 2
May-19 3,852 3,889 3,844 3,849 3,844 3,872 28 696 2,684
Jul-19 – – – 3,798 3,798 3,798 0 0 8
Sep-19 3,889 3,910 3,888 3,894 3,875 3,898 23 40 232
Nov-19 3,936 3,936 3,885 3,885 3,848 3,903 55 6 14
Corn
Turnover: 465,726 lots, or 8.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 1,779 1,780 1,772 1,773 1,779 1,775 -4 29,432 165,388
Sep-18 1,784 1,795 1,778 1,780 1,786 1,786 0 319,812 823,412
Nov-18 1,825 1,828 1,814 1,814 1,821 1,819 -2 172 1,736
Jan-19 1,849 1,858 1,842 1,843 1,849 1,849 0 104,644 427,562
Mar-19 1,882 1,894 1,881 1,881 1,888 1,886 -2 294 3,868
May-19 1,921 1,928 1,917 1,921 1,925 1,923 -2 11,372 31,062
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,676,630 lots, or 82.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 2,985 2,995 2,961 2,968 2,974 2,975 1 74,526 132,732
Aug-18 3,030 3,047 3,030 3,034 3,067 3,031 -36 34 646
Sep-18 3,060 3,077 3,036 3,045 3,060 3,054 -6 1,677,336 2,543,676
Nov-18 3,099 3,110 3,074 3,090 3,081 3,088 7 2,002 5,510
Dec-18 3,122 3,135 3,119 3,119 3,097 3,125 28 6 448
Jan-19 3,125 3,152 3,105 3,115 3,120 3,124 4 831,900 1,699,244
Mar-19 3,039 3,050 3,014 3,017 3,031 3,033 2 2,376 5,654
May-19 2,918 2,931 2,886 2,886 2,921 2,904 -17 88,450 201,502
Palm Oil
Turnover: 858,172 lots, or 43.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jun-18 – – – 5,206 5,206 5,206 0 0 0
Jul-18 – – – 5,106 5,106 5,106 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,236 5,236 5,236 0 0 12
Sep-18 5,072 5,164 5,040 5,088 5,060 5,096 36 738,812 542,706
Oct-18 – – – 5,118 5,082 5,118 36 0 22
Nov-18 – – – 5,274 5,238 5,274 36 0 12
Dec-18 5,178 5,178 5,178 5,178 5,146 5,178 32 2 2
Jan-19 5,150 5,248 5,120 5,166 5,140 5,180 40 118,890 178,512
Feb-19 – – – 5,152 5,152 5,152 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 5,156 5,156 5,156 0 0 0
Apr-19 – – – 5,278 5,278 5,278 0 0 18
May-19 5,240 5,348 5,222 5,270 5,222 5,292 70 468 2,340
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,542,698 lots, or 90.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jul-18 – – – 5,640 5,640 5,640 0 0 126
Aug-18 – – – 5,826 5,826 5,826 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,802 5,962 5,782 5,838 5,780 5,864 84 1,256,058 947,150
Nov-18 5,984 6,088 5,984 6,012 5,902 6,024 122 8 32
Dec-18 – – – 5,990 5,870 5,990 120 0 22
Jan-19 5,950 6,118 5,924 5,980 5,928 6,006 78 282,480 303,726
Mar-19 6,022 6,022 6,022 6,022 6,040 6,022 -18 2 64
May-19 6,038 6,198 6,016 6,072 6,012 6,102 90 4,150 11,764
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322