About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher again Friday, and trends are up on the daily and weekly charts. Demand and stronger world prices are supporting July futures. Back months are holding firmo n less than ideal crop conditions in West Texas and at other producing áreas around the world. The weather is bad in India and China, with big heat seen in India and Pakistan and too much rain in China. Lost Chinese production could mean increased sales for the US, especially now since the US will have the quality the Chinese need. Futures traders are looking at a market that still has strong export demand and has seen some very uneven planting and growing conditions in the US. Much of the Southeast and parts of the Delta have seen big rains. Texas has seen some precipitation, but dryland áreas are still very dry. Oklahoma and Kansas have improved conditions due to recent rains. It has been hot and dry on the Indian Subcontinent and also in China. There are ideas that the US is now running short of high quality Cotton to deliver to the exchange and to overseas buyers. Demand remains strong in export markets.
Overnight News: The Delta will be mostly dry and the Southeast will get big rains over the next couple of days. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 84.29 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 87,541 ba1es, from 84,389 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 9220, and 9940 July. Support is at 800, 8770, and 8660 July, with resistance of 8990, 9060, and 9120 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 22, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 382,244
: Positions :
: 120,940 13,038 78,656 70,368 268,150 88,348 8,334 358,312 368,178: 23,932 14,066
: Changes from: May 15, 2018 (Change in open interest: 31,359) :
: 9,655 -1,474 12,119 8,489 16,957 -1,674 3,389 28,589 30,991: 2,769 368
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 31.6 3.4 20.6 18.4 70.2 23.1 2.2 93.7 96.3: 6.3 3.7
: Total Traders: 356 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 179 52 102 63 79 32 16 317 213:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher Friday. It was another quiet sesión as traders seemed to be waiting for some news. Most traders are focussd on the weather as the hurricane season is justa round the corner. Some drought busting rains have been reported in Florida in the last week, and more big rains were reported this weekend from what was a sub tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. The situation in the state should continue to improve as the rainy season appears to be underway/ The market is still dealing with a short crop against weak demand. Florida producers are seeing golf ball sized fruit. Conditions are reported as generally good. Irrigation is being used, but less now after the rains. Brazil also could use more rain as Sao Paulo has been hot and dry. Generally good conditions are reported in Europe and northern Africa.
Overnight News: Florida should get showers and storms this week and some big rains this weekend from a potential tropical storm. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 165.00, 162.00, and 157.00 July, with resistance at 170.00, 172.00, and 173.00 July.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of May 22, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 19,277 :
: Positions :
: 6,360 14,169 1,225 0 0 5,397 217 173 557 839 2,235 :
: Changes from: May 15, 2018 :
: -189 953 -28 0 0 1,011 37 60 -40 47 55 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 33.0 73.5 6.4 0.0 0.0 28.0 1.1 0.9 2.9 4.4 11.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 71 :
: 19 17 5 0 0 23 4 . 11 5 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments Futures in New York and London closed a Little lower to finish the week. The cold weather in Arabica growing áreas and a truckers strike in Brazil that could delay shipments provided support. Southern growing áreas into pars of Minas Gerais saw temperaturas cold enough to potentially damage crops this week, but there have been few, if any reports of damage. It remains mostly dry in Arabica áreas, but Conillan áreas have seen some rains lately. Origin is still offering in Central America and is still finding weak differentials. Speculators anticipate big crops from Brazil and from Vietnam this year and have remained short in the market. Robusta remains the stronger market as Vietnamese producers and merchants have not been willing to sell at current prices. Vietnamese cash prices are weaker this week with good supplies noted in the domestic market. Current rains in the country are favorable for the crops.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 2.013 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 113.42 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Vietnam will get showers.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 117.00, 115.00, and 112.00 July, and resistance is at 121.00, 124.00 and 126.00 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1750, 1730, and 1720 July, and resistance is at 1800, 1810, and 1840 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 22, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 314,820
: Positions :
: 45,313 92,023 91,929 112,512 108,995 47,037 12,735 296,791 305,682: 18,028 9,138
: Changes from: May 15, 2018 (Change in open interest: 13,990) :
: 1,882 -1,144 9,480 1,676 4,273 724 1,117 13,762 13,726: 228 265
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.4 29.2 29.2 35.7 34.6 14.9 4.0 94.3 97.1: 5.7 2.9
: Total Traders: 549 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 180 167 177 143 123 27 17 451 402:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/22/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
122,151 73,376 62,610 7,103 7,164 2,294
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 60.1% 51.3% 5.8% 5.9% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
149 55 49 14 5 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
13,793 24,519 8,976 1,360 2,960 9,536
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
11.3% 20.1% 7.3% 1.1% 2.4% 7.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 26 15 15 4 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,713 4,091
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.7% 3.3%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were higher once again on Friday in New York and in London on more follow through buying. Ideas are that the market has been oversold and in need of a short covering rally. Ideas are that this rally might stop soon as the frundamentals are called bearish. Most traders remain focused on big world production. It has turned dry in parts of Brazil, including some Sugarcane production áreas, and there is some talk of losses to the crop in the near future unless rains return soon. It has also been very cold and some cane might have been damaged. However, the initial harvest has been big and processing has been more active than last year. India is back to export Sugar this year after being a net importer for the last couple of years. The government is subsidizing industry and producers to help maintain an active market flow and to prevent the buildup of Sugar in storage. India could raise the internal prie or try to stockpile supplies in meetings that are now scheduled for next week. Thailand has produced a record crop and is selling. Middle East and North African buyers are reported to be buying normal or less than normal amounts of Sugar in the world market right now.
Overnight News: Brazil will get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal this week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1270 and 1370 July. Support is at 1200, 1170, and 1150 July, and resistance is at 1260, 1280, and 1310 July. Trends in London are up with objectives of 368.00 August. Support is at 345.00, 340.00, and 331.00 August, and resistance is at 361.00, 367.00, and 369.00 August.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 22, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,174,547
: Positions :
: 183,507 295,286 261,610 374,514 510,932 265,062 29,748 1,084,693 1,097,576: 89,854 76,971
: Changes from: May 15, 2018 (Change in open interest: 16,200) :
: 13,017 -25,767 -11,183 2,517 49,441 8,800 7,035 13,151 19,526: 3,050 -3,326
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.6 25.1 22.3 31.9 43.5 22.6 2.5 92.3 93.4: 7.7 6.6
: Total Traders: 280 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 69 90 102 76 73 23 12 234 222:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/22/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
99,247 32,313 65,416 21,681 1,629 1,331
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 32.6% 65.9% 21.8% 1.6% 1.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
145 49 58 14 4 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
22,362 15,625 8,659 5,865 1,264 1,596
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
22.5% 15.7% 8.7% 5.9% 1.3% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 18 18 8 8 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,441 3,727
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.5% 3.8%

COCOA
General Comments Futures were lower in both markets and overall trading remains choppy and sideways.. Short term trends are still turning down, with New York most interested in working lower at this time. London is holding to a trading range at this time. Both New York and London could be forming a top. Ideas that world production has been largely sold remain part of the rally. Showers and more seasonal temperatures have been seen in the last few weeks to improve overall production conditions in West Africa. Conditions also appear good in East Africa and Asia. The mid crop harvest is active in West Africa.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.179 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2510 July. Support is at 2550, 2530, and 2480 July, with resistance at 2640, 2690, and 2700 July. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1840, 1810, and 1780 July, with resistance at 1900, 1930, and 1950 July.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of May 22, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 373,094
: Positions :
: 95,274 46,374 100,451 110,088 195,274 50,623 19,790 356,436 361,889: 16,658 11,205
: Changes from: May 15, 2018 (Change in open interest: -2,135) :
: -7,540 -6,455 -3,542 7,845 5,768 -374 1,317 -3,612 -2,912: 1,477 777
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 25.5 12.4 26.9 29.5 52.3 13.6 5.3 95.5 97.0: 4.5 3.0
: Total Traders: 256 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 80 83 41 43 25 9 213 168:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 05/22/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
344,238 165,970 224,883 15,425 20,926 29,754
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 48.2% 65.3% 4.5% 6.1% 8.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
169 57 51 17 9 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
62,247 4,137 29,574 3,063 111 31,350
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
18.1% 1.2% 8.6% 0.9% 0.0% 9.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
47 8 16 11 6 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
6,854 3,503
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.0% 1.0%

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322